Tuesday Forecast

77 Comments

5:09PM

DAYS 1-5 (FEBRUARY 7-11)
Oh how things can change, and they have here on this 39th anniversary of the Great Blizzard of 1978. We are having our own storm today, nothing like that biggie, but one that produced up to a few inches of snow in central and northern MA into southern NH before turning to sleet/rain/freezing rain. This scenario will go on for a while this evening and milder air will be moving in, turning everything to just rain showers. Very mild air will be in place early Wednesday, but that brief interlude will come to a crashing end as a strong cold front moves across the region and sends the temperature down in a fairly quick fashion from late Wednesday into Thursday. A low pressure area that looked like it may stay far enough southeast to just graze the region now looks pretty solidly like it will take a perfect track to deliver a significant snowfall to pretty much all of southern New England Thursday. Fair and cold weather will follow this on Friday. And as the pattern continues active, a clipper type low pressure system will bring the threat of some light snow by Saturday.
THROUGH EVENING: Overcast with rain occasionally mixed with sleet, especially north of Boston. Some pockets of freezing rain interior northern MA into southern NH. Temperatures ranging from near 32 northwest of Boston to near 40 South Coast. Wind NE 5-15 MPH, higher gusts.
OVERNIGHT: Cloudy. Rain showers likely. Temperatures rise through the 40s. Wind SW 10-20 MPH with higher gusts.
WEDNESDAY: Mostly cloudy with isolated rain showers morning. Partly sunny afternoon. Highs 52-60 by midday then turning colder late day. Wind SW 15-25 MPH with higher gusts, shifting to NW during the afternoon.
WEDNESDAY NIGHT: Clouding over. Snow developing southwest to northeast toward dawn and may be mixed with rain near the South Coast especially over the islands.. Temperatures fall through the 30s. Wind NW to N 5-15 MPH.
THURSDAY: Overcast. Snow, heavy at times. Early call on accumulation a widespread 6-12 inches, but probably under 6 inches over Nantucket and Martha’s Vineyard, and pockets of greater than 12 inches possible from northern RI and northeastern CT through central and eastern MA. Blowing and drifting snow. Temperatures fall into the 20s. Wind N 10-20 MPH with higher gusts.
FRIDAY: Partly cloudy. Lows 8-15. Highs 20-28.
SATURDAY: Mostly cloudy. Chance of snow. Lows 10-18. Highs 25-32.

DAYS 6-10 (FEBRUARY 12-16)
Next disturbance later February 12 into February 13 should come along with slightly milder air and bring rain/snow showers to the area. Fair, colder weather February 14-15. Next storm threat late in the period would likely be a snow producer if it were to occur.

DAYS 11-15 (FEBRUARY 17-21)
Pattern should feature near to below normal temperatures but drier weather.

77 thoughts on “Tuesday Forecast”

    1. Absolutely nasty weather day down there. And just like last time, it’s born of the pattern we’re in. Winter tornadoes are not unusual in the South, even though the media continually makes it seem that way. This reminds me of the setup we’ve seen 2 or 3 times already in the last month.

  3. Have a question I hope someone can answer…can anyone tell me if we’ve had some form on snow on 2/8 (going back 10 years or so)?

    1. 4-5 years ago wasn’t there one around this time? Before 2015 when all the storms are blurred in my mind.

      1. We had around 30 inches in Framingham if I’m thinking of right storm. Roads closed by Gov. I posted a pic the other day. And there is a good chance I’m making this up in my head

        1. To carry on my conversation with myself. WeatherWiz. It was Feb 8-9, 2013. I did post a pic on here the other day that my son took in Washington Sq. Roads had been very wisely closed

  4. So, not to beat a dead horse, but it should be noted again that this upcoming event is a perfect example of what SAK and I have been stressing recently about the models. You want details? Don’t bother trying beyond day 3. Maybe the general pattern, but that’s it.

    I had mentioned recently that such a renegade storm would seem to come out of nowhere in a pattern like this, with the models performing as they are. Well here it comes. If this doesn’t drive the point home to non-meteorologists about what we have to deal with, then I’m afraid they will simply never understand. 😉 If you recall, there were folks glancing at the models just 4 or 5 days ago saying that we had pretty much zero snow chances during the next 2 weeks. It would be nice if the models were that reliable. They never have been. I’m not sure if they ever will be. Maybe some day… But not any time soon.

    I’m sure SAK and JMA would agree with me here.

    1. Would you care to comment on how/why the NAM had it first?
      I for one would be curious to hear your take on that?

      Pure luck as in even a blind squirrel finds an acorn sometimes.

  5. Thanks as always TK!

    It is confirmed…Logan 2.5″ today!

    I shoveled but no way was it that much at least in my section of Dorchester. Quite heavy to move around though. Still an overachievement just the same. I was expecting a coating to <1". I didn't measure but no more than 1.5" or so by my guess.

    Total @ Logan to date = 18.1"

  6. Okay Vicki. This one’s for you.

    Believe it or not. I think the 18z GFS has the best depiction as to what will occur around these parts on Thursday afternoon. As TK alluded to up to 12 inches in most locations with localized heavier amounts especially where banding occurs. I agree with TK. This is the type of winter where snow storms will appear suddenly on the maps without much notice. Should be a fun day on Thursday! If the pattern was not so progressive, it could have been a lot worse.

    1. Now my day is complete. Thanks Arod….always nice to see you.

      And Haterain also. And we have a new member of the family who may join us soon. It is a great Tuesday indeed.

  7. TK – Will we get most if not all of our total season snowfall total this month or will March be included with some as well?

    1. The upward motion was a little stronger and a little further south than modeled. Therefore Logan had about 0.10 to 0.20 inch more melted (very small error) that translated into a larger snowfall error of course.

  9. So I have a “unique” property that makes it difficult to remove snow. I finally hired a guy for snow removal this season and while I hate paying it’s been a huge time and heart saver ha. So first big storm coming up Thursday and he’s out of state on vacation. Damn.

  10. Thank you TK! We endured the weather at the parade today and have to say that it felt warmer when it was snowing than when it was raining. But it was quite the experience and something my boys will remember for a lifetime.

    1. I had chills watching here so cannot even imagine what it was like to be in Boston. I’m so happy you got to go. You are an amazing mom

      I just heard that the framingham family whose little boy was just diagnosed with incurable brain cancer rode on the duck boat with Brady. Amazing love.

      The little guys go find me page to help with alternative treatments has set a hope for $60,000. Last I saw it was well over $100,000

    1. Thankfully that particular complex will be less severe than the isolated storms that were producing the tornadoes earlier.

  14. I wouldn’t be shocked if the WSW is upgraded to a blizzard warning. I think that also might encourage folks to stay home during the day on Thursday.

      1. You know they have sort of lowered the threshold these days, right? Aren’t gusts going to be in the neighboord of 35-40.

        1. No, they haven’t the criteria has not changed in decades.

          “A Blizzard Warning means that the following conditions are occurring or expected within the next 12 to 18 hours.
          1) Snow and/or blowing snow reducing visibility to 1/4 mile or less for 3 hours or longer
          AND
          2) Sustained winds of 35 mph or greater or frequent gusts to 35 mph or greater.”

          1. I understand that. I know what a blizzard warning is. What I am saying is he NWS seems to pull the trigger even if criteria isn’t so solid that it might materialize.

    2. A blizzard warning should not be thought of as an upgrade from a Winter Storm Warning. That’s mixing criteria. The WSW is largely issued for a snow amount. A Blizzard Warning has nothing to do with snow accumulation.

      Blizzard conditions are just that, conditions, and the definition, once very strict, has indeed blurred a little. It’s just, in my opinion, easier to alert a listener/reader/viewer, of strong winds and low visibility rather than worrying about whether or not it qualifies as a blizzard, by definition. When it comes down to it, it’s a pretty useless statistic.

      1. Hadi knows that. He said he wouldn’t be shocked if the NWS
        issued that warning as we get closer. Stranger things have happened. 😀

        Perhaps it may be unlikely, but that doesn’t mean something won’t change and they decide to issue the warning for parts of the area.

        Will be interesting to watch.

        1. I’m aware he knows that. But I was speaking more to the wording of a blizzard warning being an upgrade from a winter storm warning. I realize that it is easy to view it this way, but it is incorrect. Trust me on this.

    3. Along parts of the South Shore, it could be marginal.

      I see GFS has 40+ gusts almost to Boston.
      The definition is sustained of 35 mph, which is highly unlikely, however,
      there is wording about “Or frequents gusts to 35 Mph or higher”. That is the catch 22 that might allow a warning to be hoisted for say the canal up to Plymouth or Marshfield or so. They’ll have to closely monitor the wind projections for the system. It may have to get just a bit stronger? Who knows. We shall see.

      1. You need the winds (gusts or sustained) and visibility criteria for 3 consecutive hours. If NWS doesn’t think that will happen (and it likely won’t), then won’t issue the warning. They do have to verify their warnings and if they continue to issue warnings that don’t verify there are consequences.

  18. Don’t be shocked if the 0z guidance slides back southeast a bit. That’s not exactly a forecast, but a bit of a hunch… also does not preclude later shifts the other way even if it happens.

  19. Comparing NAM 00z run to its current hr 27 against earlier 18z and 12z runs, low pressure center seems to be in about the same spot, but the current 00z run’s pressure is running slightly lower at 1002 mb, compared to around 1004 or 1006 mb when the low is over West Virginia. That’s a trend I think we’ve seen the last 12-24 hrs, for this system to have a lower pressure.

  20. Definitely flying the system along, that seemed to start and taper the snow a bit earlier than previous runs.

    2. ~6 hours of meaningful snow. A few hours of very high rates over end amounts will be the story if this comes together. Of course, 8-10″ snow isn’t half bad, but probably won’t be the biggest story.

  21. Bullseye wobbling around on the NAM all day. 00Z now has the foot mark isolated to western MA with about 7 or 8″ for Boston, less to the south and east

  22. Very interesting storm structure modeled by the NAM, even more so on the higher resolution depictions. Big overarching band to the northwest, and then a very tight but extremely intense core of heavy snow near the center. Leaves some areas in a bit of a hole.

    1. Is this why eastern mass is less snow than western mass? Is it because of maybe dry slot or the storm shifted further nw giving us more mixing?

      1. I’m sure TK, SAK, and JMA would be all over the reasons for it. My thinking is just that at the fairly early stage in its development that the storm will be in as it passes us, it hasn’t fully wrapped itself up yet and become more symmetrical. It won’t quite have the classic comma head yet. As it moves away from us, that piece to the northwest will eventually get more wrapped in, and that really strong stuff near the core should weaken some but spread out. Should be interesting!

  23. Holy moly ….. It’s 23 and 27F respectively in Bedford and Lawrence and in the low 20s in Worcester. I had noticed it was rather cold in Maine and Portsmouth by earlier. Wow !!!!!!

  25. 1. Not going to get as warm as people think tomorrow.
    2 No blizzard but possible bomb off the coast
    3 first widespread heavy snowfall with temperatured dropping through the day. Wind chills near 0 for Friday. Snow actually stays
    4. Just start it early enough and include boston so I do not have my calc quiz not sure if it happens at lets say 4/5 in the morning or 8 to 10
    5 feeling dry slots will form as its going to be a developing storm so some expeically south of the pike I feel will see lighter amounts than people are forecasting.

  27. https://www.wunderground.com/weather-radar/united-states/fl/tampa/tbw/

    Active weather day. I’m guessing if your in Tampa and looking northwest out into the Gulf of Mexico, there’s quite a light show going on.

    Currently, temps in central and southern Florida are in the low 70s and the dewpoints are in the mid 60s. So, if there’s support at upper levels, there’s definitely enough warmth and humidity at the surface to keep this squall line going a while.

  28. 12z GFS holds steady with widespread 8-12 inches and some slightly higher amounts right in the 95 corridor. Obviously the amounts of course depend on which method/ratios you are looking at.

  30. I have 7 work visitors from France here this week, in Westborough. Wouldn’t you know we set up an outing Thursday night for 14 or us, dinner in the north end followed by bruins game… let’s fire the coach and bring on the foot of snow! And of course we missed the parade as we were in meetings all day… good timing!

  32. The heaviest snow will fall right along the coastal front, which I expect will set up right around I-95. West of it, temperatures will stay in the upper teens/low 20s with heavy, fluffy snow, while east of it temperatures will be in the upper 20s/low 30s with a wetter snow. The coastal front will collapse eastward later afternoon, which temperatures everywhere dropping into the upper teens/low 20s by late afternoon. I’ve seen this numerous times before, and the setup is very similar.

    In other words, I think the GFS is very close to what will happen.

    My preliminary snowfall amounts:

    4-8″ – Southern NH as well as Cape Cod/Islands
    5-10″ – Merrimack Valley/N Worcester County
    6-12″ – for much of the rest of E Mass/RI with isolated 10-15″ totals along I-95.

        1. Yes I understand that, but JR on air specifically told viewers to focus on the HIGH end of his range for example.

  33. Hmmm

    I am sensing a back off. Track seems to have trended Eastward.

    We still have tomorrow’s runs to see what shakes out.

    Still a nice event, but looking to fall short of major and certainly NOT a block Buster.

    Looking forward to the next runs.

    Until tomorrow….

Comments are closed.