Sunday Forecast

56 Comments

8:21AM

DAYS 1-5 (JULY 15-19)
A few changes today, i.e., the warm front never really gets through and the entire system washes out upon us, but still gets its cold front kind-of-sort-of through. It’s like the “mush pattern”, nothing really clear cut. This is why behind it all we stay humid Monday and there will still be a shower and thunderstorm risk, albeit fairly minor regionwide. Still expecting a stronger front to approach Tuesday with a better chance of showers/storms, clearing out of the region during Wednesday, although the speed of this clearing is somewhat in question. By Thursday, anyway, it should be fair with high pressure in control … maybe. 😉 Forecast details (as best as I can detail them)…
TODAY: Variably cloudy. Areas of light fog early. Isolated showers and thunderstorms. Humid. Highs 76-82 coast, 82-87 interior. Wind light variable.
TONIGHT: Variably cloudy. Areas of fog. Isolated showers early. Humid. Lows 62-67. Wind light variable.
MONDAY: Partly sunny. Isolated showers and thunderstorms midday and afternoon. Humid. Highs 77-83 coast, 83-89 interior. Wind light variable with coastal sea breezes developing.
MONDAY NIGHT: Partly to mostly cloudy. Patchy fog. Humid. Lows 62-69. Wind light S.
TUESDAY: Mostly cloudy. Showers and thunderstorms likely. Areas of fog. Humid. Highs 75-80 coast, 80-85 interior. Wind SW 5-15 MPH.
WEDNESDAY: Mostly cloudy. Chance of showers, especially morning. Humid. Lows in the 60s. Highs in the 70s.
THURSDAY: Mostly sunny. Less humid. Lows in the 60s. Highs from the upper 70s to middle 80s.

DAYS 6-10 (JULY 20-24)
Pattern transition to ridge West, trough Midwest / Great Lakes, ridge off East Coast begins. Higher humidity common, warm to at times hot, but almost daily opportunities for at least isolated showers and thunderstorms.

DAYS 11-15 (JULY 25-29)
The pattern that develops during the days before this likely becomes more established during this period.

56 thoughts on “Sunday Forecast”

  3. Thanks TK!

    According to Barry, we are now halfway into meteorological summer.

    Also, not liking the rest of the month. Nothing but HHH. 🙁

  4. Thanks TK !

    Your brilliant sir ….. look at the 00z EURO long term and it’s got the pattern TK’s been predicting for weeks, if not months, arriving in mid to later July. Amazing !!!

      1. That’s just a mass of clouds and showers. NHC is not even mentioning it so zero concern. Only system right now is Beryl, which regenerated as a subtropical storm.

    1. Weathermush. It’s not really atypical for summertime. Just weak flow overall. We often see it before the emergence of a new pattern.

  9. Massbay, the video of Innaarsuit (village in Western Greenland) and the giant iceberg is very impressive.

    2. That will depend on the amount of sun before, and I don’t think there will be much, so at this point more thinking general showers/storms of a more widespread variety, but as always will examine this as the hours draw closer.

      1. Barry has temps in the low 90s even in Boston but if not much sun, then that will certainly be difficult to achieve.

        1. That would mean that was the Euro’s 2m temp forecast. It can be ok, but is often a bit high. We’ll need some luck to get that warm and brew bigger storms (if you’re looking for heat & storms). 😉

  20. Word of caution as we transition to warm / humid pattern with a trough to our west and ridge to the West. Precipitable Water values will be high and models will translate that to rain. As an example end of the 7-10 day period 12z ECMWF has 72 straight hours of rain with 2-3″ of rain in SNE along with below average temps. That won’t translate to reality. Shower chances will be up and storms could deliver big downpours to some areas while other areas may miss out only to catch it on another two days later. Think lots of mid 80s and humid with a mix of sun clouds and downpours.

  22. The clouds from the cell near Worcester dissipated some and now seem to be making a comeback. Amazing, as TK has been saying, how far you can see a system.

    Second wave of family arrived yesterday and Younger daughter headed home. My photos dont compare to hers. But she did remove the wire I had in this one

    https://i.imgur.com/z9XJn50.jpg

  23. I wonder if we’ll need to keep an eye on the southernmost part of the cold front that will pass through here on Tuesday.

    By southernmost part, I’m talking about off the southeast us coast, where, as most summer cold fronts do, they stall and tend to wash out.

    It’s just that, a few days after, a trof develops in the Great Lakes and the Western Atlantic ridge builds towards the east coast and if anything ever started to spin and organize off the southeast us coast from that washed out cold front, I would think it would be directed NNE up the east coast given the flow aloft.

    1. Daughter just sent me video. It’s nuts. Windy and just under and inch of rain in sutton so far

      2. Interesting, because the storm is warned for wind gusts to 60 mph.

        And 2 smaller cells have pulsed a bit not too far from this cell.

        1. The wind in the video looked amazing but my system said highest is 7 mph. I wonder sometimes if the hill behind blocks some wind even if it is set up high

  25. I had a chance to check the charts on my station. It looks as if the entire 0.93 rain was in about 15-20 minutes

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