Sunday Forecast

88 Comments

11:32AM

DAYS 1-5 (AUGUST 12-16)
Not too much to change or add for today’s update. Low pressure to the south of New England continues to deliver a humid and relatively cool (in comparison to recent weather) episode with occasional wet weather including heavy downpours. This will go on through tomorrow in the form it’s in now, then take on a little more tropical feel by Tuesday as we see the low back up to the west and start to become absorbed in a large scale southerly air flow. There are some other parameters that will be present on Tuesday that may result in a risk for some severe storm development. I’m not convinced of this, but it is something to watch closely. By Wednesday, the remains of our current low pressure system will come back eastward across the region in the form of a trough, which still results in a shower/storm risk for part of the day, but once it passes introduces slightly drier air. This will set up a very nice summer day for Thursday as high pressure moves in. Forecast details…
TODAY: Mostly cloudy but breaks of sun possible. Scattered to isolated showers and possible thunderstorms, some with very heavy downpours. Humid. Highs 68-75 coast, 75-82 interior. Wind NE 5-15 MPH.
TONIGHT: Mostly cloudy. Areas of fog. Isolated to scattered showers. Humid. Lows 62-67. Wind light variable.
MONDAY: Mostly cloudy. Showers likely. Slight chance of thunderstorms. Humid. Highs 68-73 coast, 73-78 interior. Wind variable 5-15 MPH.
MONDAY NIGHT: Mostly cloudy. Areas of fog. Scattered showers. Humid. Lows 62-67. Wind light S.
TUESDAY: Partly sunny. Scattered showers and thunderstorms, some of which may be strong. Humid. Highs 73-78 coast, 79-84 interior. Wind S 5-15 MPH, higher gusts.
WEDNESDAY: Variably cloudy with scattered to isolated showers and thunderstorms with greatest chance morning, lesser chance afternoon. Gradually lowering humidity. Lows in the 60s. Highs from the middle 70s to middle 80s, coolest South Coast.
THURSDAY: Sunny. Lows in the 60s. Highs in the 80s, some upper 70s coastal areas.

DAYS 6-10 (AUGUST 17-21)
While the ridge in the Atlantic hangs a little further east a couple more disturbances will be able to move through from west to east. This would bring a few opportunities for showers and thunderstorms, right now favoring August 17 and 19 for the wetter days. This may change as timing is not certain. Temperatures close to or even slightly below normal but humidity will be higher much of the time.

DAYS 11-15 (AUGUST 22-26)
A possible quick shot of cooler/drier air to start the period then warmer/humid weather returns with a couple shower opportunities. Heat may try to build later in the period as high pressure again strengthens off the East Coast and backs westward.

88 thoughts on “Sunday Forecast”

  4. My “analogue” rain gauge overflowed last night. Based on the previous reading, this means over 3.5″ in Lunenburg. NOAA reports 3.64″. The ponds and wetlands behind our house look like they do in the Spring when the snow is melting!

    1. For sure. We have a couple of youngish ones in our neighborhood that are turning. I seem to recall the same trees changing early last year so perhaps not very strong even though young.

      1. It doesn’t take much for that chlorophyll to fall away. Maybe they’re swamp maples; they are among the first to turn.

  7. Thanks TK.

    Over 8” of rain reported in the Lynn area. Models have done a good job for days indicating the potential for this setup to produce a serious flash flood event.

    1. They have indeed. It’s been a while since we’ve had a pattern persist a little while like this in late summer, when the atmosphere is often more loaded with moisture.

    2. Can verify some impassable roads in Peabody, and this is from a local Patch:

      “LYNNFIELD, MA — The Lynnfield Tunnel is among North Shore areas suffering through heavy flooding Sunday morning, leading to serious traffic issues on Route 1 and I-95 South. The Lynnway in Revere is also flooded in both directions, and WBZ Traffic reports traffic is being detoured at the Point of Pines exit.

      The National Weather Service is sharing reports of more than 8 inches of rain in Lynn and 7 in Peabody. A flash flood warning remains in effect in much Essex and parts of Middlesex counties.

      Traffic as of noon was seeing heavy delays. Local traffic is also being hit hard as roads close in places like Salem, Marblehead, Swampscott, North Reading, Wakefield, and others.”

      1. I can’t visually verify this but I would not be surprised if it’s all the case, especially Peabody and Lynn which are so poorly road-configured that a passing fog bank can cause a flash flood there. 😛

        1. Ha. I agree with that, and remember reading several years ago that the intersection in downtown Peabody had chest-deep water.

          There’s a small river that passes under Endicott Street in Peabody, just downhill from Lowell Street. Just now it flooded way over its banks. Seven inches! wow

  9. Going back to woodshill comment. I was told that those roads are very outdated and poorly designed. Also was told Lynn is a place you wouldn’t want to go anyway. I’ve never been there so Idk. On a more positive note Franklin the town we picked to live here in Massachusetts is I believe the best around. I feel like they are always thinking down the road, and never satisfied with the progress made here in Franklin the last 20 yrs.

    2. Where in franklin are you? Not the name of the road of course but area-wise.

      Have you been there a while?

        1. Interesting. My brother bought in that area 40 years ago. The town had more growing pains than they could handle. At one point was the fastest growing town in the country….not in a positive way. Do you by chance have children who went through the schools?

          1. I heard that they did not update the watering system, and houses had bad water pressure. But imo I blame that on Franklin for not updating the system quickly enough. They do take blame, and was told that won’t happen again. I believe them. They have a good young council. I am older but think future.

            2. Also thank heavens they slowed their growth rate. It was out of control in the 80s and 90s. They figured it out and now have growth behind many neighboring towns…..I believe even behind the little town of Mendon.

              1. It’s slowed however imo growth is good. Franklin has been growing positively about 1,000 persons per year since 2010, and estimates say Franklin will reach 40,000 residents by 2022.

                2. Framingham grew by outdated everything. Then was told started going to section 8 housing too try to fix deficits. Section 8 is ok in moderation. However not 20% of the population. Again this is from reading and being told by what I think are reliable sources. Who knows though.

                3. Low income is required in all towns. But framingham is really two towns…north and south.
                  If you had to choose, what place did you and your wife enjoy living most?

                4. We love it here from Memorial Day – Halloween. Weather wise. Nice people here for the most part. I do notice folks here are a little more aggressive drivers but imo it’s bc of the roads they have been given.

          2. No children that live here. 3 in Texas (Dallas) 1 in NYC manhattan. They have been here for visits and liked it. However they wouldn’t move here bc of the winters. I do believe in a few years I will move again. Probably to a climate where it warmer, less cloudy days, less snow, less cold. I do like change in weather here. But the winter takes a toll on my arthritis etc etc. Not looking forward to when it becomes cold again (after Halloween).

            On a side note. You seem very caring and are on the blog quite a bit. Nice to see.

            1. We do like the snow and cold. We don’t hate it, but the brutal cold, brutal snow (over say 10 inches takes a toll).

            3. does the one who lives in NY root for the Giants ? That must stink considering the 2 Super Bowls vs the Patriots.

              1. Lol!! Nah he’s actually a jets fan unfortunately so I getthe one up. However we do have our moments. He respects the Patriots, but hates that somehow someway they win all the time. I was raised a Steelers fan but have grown closer too the Patriots.

                1. LOL….Well this year may be the start of a slow downslide for the Pats. 10-6 maybe even 9-7.

                3. My wife will be disappointed if the start to slip this year. She’s a big football fan. Is your wife a football fan?

  11. Looking at obs …..

    The Boston harbor buoy wind has backed to 050 and the NE wind has freshened at both Logan and Beverly.

    Meanwhile on the Cape and New Bedford, the winds have veered to SE. It’s really oppressively tropical down this way now. Some splashes of sun, with temps 75 to 80 and low 70s dewpoints.

    I’m not surprised showers and storms are popping further south now. Wonder if a new convergence area may set up further south, where I think the boundary has sagged some to ???

    Glad to see that crazy Lynn/Peabody event has stopped !!

  14. confirming what Tom has said. Pretty Stiff East wind here.
    Temp 74, dp 71 YUCK!!!!

    I just did a little work around the house and am sweating bullets!

    Btw, when I went out, saw a 4 foot section of a down spout on the ground.
    It rained so hard, it took a section out.

  15. Atmosphere is loaded with moisture. It’s pouring here now in Wrentham, where we’ve largely missed out on the heaviest rain. We’ve had only a little over an inch the past couple days. Keep in mind that that radar tends to underestimate rainfall in these tropical environments with low topped convection. I’d say even with dual pol it’s running about 10-20% low today with its rainfall estimates. Doesn’t take long to get flash flooding in urban areas.

    1. We have had dry little in past few days. This area …Sutton to wrentham has been on the lower end. Up till now, we have been on higher end

  18. Just getting back from Boston and caught up on today’s blog. I’m with Vicki one hundred percent on loving small town life. I grew up in Concord when the population was about 14-15k and held steady through ‘80’s and ‘90’s. Recently it’s grown close to 19k and I find it way too crowded. We lived in Acton when we were first married and that town was pro growth but it came with lots of consequences so we fled in 2012 to southeast Westford. Ultimately found that too crowded too so we decided on Harvard. We’ve only been here since March but we love it. Every single time I drive to or from our house past horses and stone walls and pastures and ponds my heart sings. Also lots to be said about 60 kids per class year in 4 sections – 15 kids per classroom.

    1. Wow. I could not agree more. When I drive east, I find myself getting claustrophobic. I can go miles in sutton and not see a car. I’m just as likely to see a horse drawn wagon or tractor. The school system is amazing

      Like concord, Belmont grew and changed. It lost its identity. Makes me sad

      I am so so so happy you enjoy Harvard. We had friends there when I was young….Kimballs and often wonder if they are somehow connected with kimballs ice cream…and I loved visiting

      Did you by chance know the Ratta family in acton? Acton is lovely but you are right about it’s growth.

    2. Mama Mia I read your comment again because it resonates. Funny how we both moved in March. Funny also that I could be talking about Harvard or you about Sutton. Makes me smile.

  22. Just had 0.52 in a matter of about five minutes. 1.57 for day. All from two separate and quick downpours

  23. Pretty soupy in Boston. Cooler than it’s been, but not pleasant. Very draining.

    Red Sox 85 and 35, Orioles 35 and 84. That’s an indictment of the O’s as much as it is an incredible feat for the Sox. Baltimore is a big market team with money and they’ve totally squandered it on the likes of Chris Davis (> $161 million for a guy who can’t hit or field – maybe the worst signing of all time). Yet, Duquette has a job, earns millions. Something patently unfair about this. Incompetence and lack of accountability are big pet peeves of mine.

    1. Honestly the one reason why many don’t take baseball seriously is because no salary cap. Then we will see who the best mlb organization is.

      2. And to Joshua’s point…The Orioles have a wealthy owner…they are in a major market and they keep screwing up. Really have had a consistent winner since the late 60s. Yeah a salary cap may or may not help but attracting the right front office people, managers, coaches, scouts, etc means just as much.

          2. HAHAHA.. Been following them that long? 😉

            So which of the 2 of you are the bigger sports fan? 🙂

  26. Since our discussion on the Lawrence temp sensor a week ago, I’ve been following the temp closely and have come a lot more to the idea of a faulty sensor. It has been consistently milder than surrounding temps and even now, is 1F milder than alpha and a couple degrees milder than surrounding reporting stations.

  27. Nearly every reliable, in my opinion, Sea Surface Temperature anomaly site I have looked at puts the current ocean temps east and south of New England at 2.5 to 4 degrees CELCIUS above average. This translates to 4.5 to 7.2F above average.

    In my opinion, this enhanced what happened in Lynn (8.14 inches) and Peabody (7.81 inches) in 2 to 3 hrs.

    Its like a weak version of the Gulf of Mexico off the New England coast right now, where one might expect to find these local rainfall rates and totals.

    1. Agree 100%. Makes you wonder about the implications of these SST anomalies should a tropical system decide to turn our way. Certainly presents a much more volatile setup than usual, although we continue to have the overall inactive Atlantic pattern on our side.

      And, going further, what about implications on this winter should these anomalies persist, which they probably will at least to some degree? It would certainly lend me towards hedging higher on snowfall totals, especially inland away from the marine layer, since those SSTs could support stronger/juicer coastal storms. It would also heighten my concern for coastal flood/erosion potential. I’ll definitely be factoring this in to my winter forecast, as one of several factors.

        1. Its in a neutral state, but forecast is for it to go weak to moderate in the fall into winter, at least thats what I am thinking, it could go strong, we shall see, we will hope it does not become strong. Our oceans can not handle that at the moment. They need some time to recover from the last one.
          Have its current state and what it has been doing through the summer,
          https://merrimackvalleyweather796095653.wordpress.com/

    2. https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/ocean/cdas-sflux_ssta_global_1.png for those interested the SSTs are and have been well above average for the past 10 years + and the rate at which its warming every year, is increasing, think of our water as a bath tub during the summer months. With Stellwagen bank being the side of the bath. Look on this map, look to the north and west of stellwagen vs the east of it, That has been consistant for a very very long time.

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