I avoid any fox news link. They have been antiscience and insanely wrong and dangerously so too many times on this epidemic.
Oh so True!
He seems to be forming his opinion as if we are past this. These are OP-EDs based on no actual knowledge. I would react the same to any extreme news source or frankly any media source without multiple links to factual data.
Fox News is a Joke any charts / graphs should come from more trusted sources like CDC.
When it comes to data, it is organizations best to stick to highly accredited organizations usually those who have certifications from organizations such as the Joint Commission (JCAHO). Johns Hopkins is one such organization.
When it comes to modeling, all modelers must make assumptions about how people and governments will behave. I have no knowledge of how pandemic modeling is done, but I wonder if the models are similar to weather models in that they lean heavily on a branch of mathematics called chaos theory. After all does a modeler know how Longshot, Gov Baker, and President Trump will behave/act today, tomorrow and the next day? The answer is no, but each of our actions no matter how grand or slight will affect the virus outcome.
Good comment. I use both organizations you list. And I only read articles that cite those and other accredited orgs. I don’t limit my reading to one which is why I posted three above. The media with the least bias will generally cite.
Love your last sentence.
Thank you.
Here is an article about how Covid-19 may have come so quickly and harshly to Italy. Whether you believe it or not, it is an example of how the actions of government can affect the virus spread and highlight the modeler’s predicament.
Like meteorology models can only do as well as their validated input. And, they need to account for as many variables as possible, with as little random noise as possible. I’d say all models have fared poorly with respect to Covid-19. This includes both sides of the spectrum: Those that forecast doomsday scenarios of millions dead, and those that suggested the virus would peter out by April and have minimal impact on the U.S.
As for counting the dead and attributing cause of death to Covid-19, I’d lean heavily to the side of under-reporting for two reasons: 1. In Europe and perhaps elsewhere (not sure about the U.S., at least not all states) nursing home deaths are vastly under-reported. France is doing its best to correct for this, but other countries have not and will not. 2. In Europe and certainly elsewhere (including U.S.) home deaths are vastly under-reported if reported at all. For example, NYC:
Under-counting the dead in NYC: An estimated additional 180 – 195 deaths per day occurring at home in New York City due to COVID-19 are not being counted in the official figures. “Early on in this crisis we were able to swab people who died at home, and thus got a coronavirus reading. But those days are long gone. We simply don’t have the testing capacity for the large numbers dying at home. Now only those few who had a test confirmation *before* dying are marked as victims of coronavirus on their death certificate. This almost certainly means we are undercounting the total number of victims of this pandemic,” said Mark Levine, Chair of New York City Council health committee.
By the way, I definitely now have what my son had. He’s doing much better, thankfully. Perhaps he had Covid-19, perhaps not. We’ll never know. So far in my case it’s mild and I’m hoping it stays that way. Other than high blood pressure I don’t have other underlying health conditions that would put me at risk. My age – 55 – is not really a factor, though it’s more so than someone in their 20s.
Joshua please take care of yourself. Hugs and prayers.
Re: NYC
Exactly. Many deaths are due to covid-19, but are not being tested and will not
be tested. # deaths is considerably higher than being reported. There was a piece
on CNN concerning coroners across the country complaining of just this.
I can not say what but Mass hospitals have found something that is helping the worst cases that has not really gotten out and is in trial runs here in mass, possibly why the deaths are starting to go down despite increasing numbers
MA numbers are out, up 1,588 from yesterday to 16,790.
1. Dow soaring again today (up 780 points and now up around 2400 points on the week) after Sanders dropped out and new data continues to show signs of new COVID-19 cases slowing
2. New case projections adjusted down yet again today by the IHME model. The modeling also shows fewer people will die from coronavirus than previously expected.
* The US will reach its highest daily number of deaths on or around Sunday, according to modeling by the Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation at the University of Washington in Seattle.
* US will reach its peak use of resources — such as hospital beds and ventilators — on or around Saturday.
* On Tuesday, the IHME estimated about 82,000 people will die from coronavirus disease by August. On Wednesday, that estimate was lowered to 60,415. That is a significant drop.
* Johns Hopkins University, which is tracking coronavirus cases worldwide, changed its trending description for the US to “down” — similar to the current trending statuses for Italy and Spain.
Highest 24 hr increase today . Look for this number to get beat no doubt . Still a ways too go here .
And that was what this same model previously predicted. The highest peak for deaths and hospitalizations, per the link above, is expected to happen later this week. The point is we are pretty much at the apex, and things look to get better from here on out. I will put my trust in what the doctors and experts at Johns Hopkins have to say.
I completely disagree mark . Things do not look better from here on out I’m not sure why you continue to not see this . Mark mass has not even peaked yet , have you heard them say mass is at peak .
Except models are now showing themselves to be wrong because we have taken some steps that alter the final.
Just like weather….predictive models are just that. They are a prediction and can’t take variables into consideration so are anything but a definite.
I think disagreeing with parts of what logical folks say is fine. But finding fault …not so much.
Did you read the post above? It agrees with what you said and says the peak is coming this weekend. And then the numbers will start to trend down.
Gov Lamont in CT and Cuomo in NY both said in their press conferences this week that the numbers are flattening out. Havent been following Baker.
This is a headline article on CNN and posts information from experts at Johns Hopkins and the model that Fauci is using as guidance.
I am merely passing this information along….not making it up.
Again I respectfully disagree & we have not agreed on this subject not Even once since the get go !!! We can agree to disagree respectfully.
Jesus John!
Thanks for the positive news Mark!
Thanks Mark. It will keep changing. But it will ONLY keep changing for the better if people stay home
The one thing this is showing is that self isolating IS WORKING. So to anyone who is not or doesn’t think it is necessary and to the many states that are not…gee thanks for keeping this going
Yes I agree. The vast majority of the country has been self isolating for 3+ weeks now so you would expect these numbers to start making a turn for the better. It would actually be quite discouraging if after all this, we were seeing no improvement. Very encouraging.
You would think there would be a huge difference. Sadly, There are far too many instances of folks who are not self isolating in areas where isolation is not required but suggested. In small Sutton alone there has been a huge number out and about at our one park. Some southern states are literally just starting to get on board. Many are still having in person church services etc.
We will not see the end until the entire country is forced to isolate. It would be impossible without that step and it needs to come from the president. Every country that has forced isolation and forced masks has seen an improvement.
I’ve been moved in listening to story after story of people dying, in the ER, on a respirator, and they haven’t had their loved ones at their sides. (Amazing job by nurses and doctors to hold up cell phones to allow a quick goodbye)
My mom died of cancer and I found great peace in being with her the last days of her life and at the moment she died.
So, I really feel for those who are dying alone and for the loved ones who aren’t getting to participate in the good-byes that many have been fortunate to participate in.
Thus, I take no solace in the death numbers and whether they are meeting, exceeding or under-performing previous expectations because of the psychological impact on the survivors of covid 19 victims. And I wouldn’t have had this perspective even just 1o years ago until I went through my mom’s passing.
You brought me to tears. I have been thinking the same. I cannot imagine not being with Mac or mom or dad or brother or in-laws. I have a friend who yesterday lost her dad in a care facility in Sweden. Some older folks with memory difficulty have no way to understand why loved ones no longer visit. But more than that. Down to 60,000 is a positive but gives me no solace.
I think Tom said it really well above. No matter what, this is going to be looked back on as a human tragedy. However, I think it is possible for us to know that while also recognizing that, thanks mainly to our actions, we are on track to substantially improve upon earlier fatality estimates. The numbers remain encouraging.
So I agree with Tom: I take no solace in the tens or hundreds of thousands of fatalities that will or have already occurred worldwide. However, I do think we can feel good and inspired in the fact that we are likely saving as many or more lives than we are losing thanks to our actions. That is, to put it plainly, pretty freaking awesome.
77 new deaths , 1,588 new ma cases ( highest 24 hr reading to date ) the peak officially has not arrived but it’s getting better — Jesus John !!! I’ve known people directed affected by this , I have people in my family with severe suppressed immune systems that there petrified for there life of getting this . It’s not getting better . It’s scary , sad all rolled into one .
Keep the positive news coming please! Yes this is going to be a tough week or two but just remember, every day we wake up is one day closer to getting back to life as we somewhat knew it.
Thank you, everyone, for your well wishes. I’m doing okay. Don’t know if it is Covid-19. But will presume it is and stay isolated.
As people know, I’m less sanguine about Covid-19 than I was. The new `data’ do not change my mind. Modeled data are just that. I respect the modellers a lot. I personally know some of them. But, I am always skeptical about verification, on either side of the spectrum of models (worst v. best case scenarios). What I prefer to do is look at the actual data; right now a 5-day average of over 31,000 new cases a day, and closing in on a second 1,900 plus deaths day. It’s not encouraging unless you live west of the Mississippi. Take Massachusetts, for example. We’re about to leapfrog Louisiana for confirmed cases – Louisiana is itself is a hotspot – and will probably be 4th in the nation by next week. 3rd is unlikely as Michigan is a major hotspot.
Moreover, suppose we are plateauing as a nation, consider where that level is at: ~30,000 new cases a day, Best case scenario is 3,000 of those new cases are seriously ill, and 750 die. My guess is we’ll plateau for a while, just like Italy has for 3 weeks. Then, there’s the lengthy tail as we retreat back to 20,000, 15,000, 10,000, etc … Doing back of the envelope calculations that’s a tremendous amount of death and a long period of time. And here, I’m not even talking about the hundreds of thousands of cases we already have, thousands of whom will die.
It’s almost impossible to correctly project numbers of deaths, given the fact that the model’s behavioral assumptions have us in lockdown mode until August. I’m doubtful we’ll do that. Also, the model projects lower case fatality over time. That has certainly not panned out. Our CFR is twice what it was 2-3 weeks ago. Heck, even Germany’s CFR has increased 3-fold over time, which was not projected in the models.
If someone had told me in February that the U.S. would lead the world in numbers of cases by a wide margin already, within 10-14 days will have more cases than the EU and UK combined (US population is considerably smaller than EU and UK), and be number one in deaths by April 12th with many more deaths to come over the coming months I would have said that to that person, “you’re out of your mind.” I was wrong at the time to minimize this virus. I’ve learned my lesson the hard way.
I do think Americans are suffering from collective amnesia when we conveniently forget our government officials told us 3-4 weeks ago that we had this “virus contained.” By the way, that is not a partisan statement. Cuomo said it as well. He downplayed the virus as much as anyone in the White House.
Please ..this is something we can all do.
Place a single candle in your window for all medical folks, first responders, postal carriers, grocery workers, truck drivers, and ALL who are risking themselves to keep us safe
Security Officers as well.
I was in a Citzens Bank yesterday to deposit a check and the tellers did not have shields for protection. Even the smallest convenience stores now have that much at their counters.
You might as well add bank tellers to the list as well, Vicki!
New C-19 Chat Post is up.
Comments are closed.
Your no-hype southeastern New England weather blog!
Models have performed horribly during this pandemic.
Social distancing was included in the original models projections.
Flu deaths could also be included in the Coronavirus death counts.
https://www.foxnews.com/media/tucker-carlson-coronavirus-models-hospitalizations-restrictions
Let the facts speak for themselves.
I avoid any fox news link. They have been antiscience and insanely wrong and dangerously so too many times on this epidemic.
Oh so True!
He seems to be forming his opinion as if we are past this. These are OP-EDs based on no actual knowledge. I would react the same to any extreme news source or frankly any media source without multiple links to factual data.
Fox News is a Joke any charts / graphs should come from more trusted sources like CDC.
Re media….I find these to be good guides.
https://imgur.com/a/04JPRmR
There is no center.
oh Coastal
As expected.
When it comes to data, it is organizations best to stick to highly accredited organizations usually those who have certifications from organizations such as the Joint Commission (JCAHO). Johns Hopkins is one such organization.
When it comes to modeling, all modelers must make assumptions about how people and governments will behave. I have no knowledge of how pandemic modeling is done, but I wonder if the models are similar to weather models in that they lean heavily on a branch of mathematics called chaos theory. After all does a modeler know how Longshot, Gov Baker, and President Trump will behave/act today, tomorrow and the next day? The answer is no, but each of our actions no matter how grand or slight will affect the virus outcome.
Good comment. I use both organizations you list. And I only read articles that cite those and other accredited orgs. I don’t limit my reading to one which is why I posted three above. The media with the least bias will generally cite.
Love your last sentence.
Thank you.
Here is an article about how Covid-19 may have come so quickly and harshly to Italy. Whether you believe it or not, it is an example of how the actions of government can affect the virus spread and highlight the modeler’s predicament.
https://www.gatewaytosouthamerica-newsblog.com/italy-and-the-wuhan-virus-the-real-story-from-an-italian-writer/
Like meteorology models can only do as well as their validated input. And, they need to account for as many variables as possible, with as little random noise as possible. I’d say all models have fared poorly with respect to Covid-19. This includes both sides of the spectrum: Those that forecast doomsday scenarios of millions dead, and those that suggested the virus would peter out by April and have minimal impact on the U.S.
As for counting the dead and attributing cause of death to Covid-19, I’d lean heavily to the side of under-reporting for two reasons: 1. In Europe and perhaps elsewhere (not sure about the U.S., at least not all states) nursing home deaths are vastly under-reported. France is doing its best to correct for this, but other countries have not and will not. 2. In Europe and certainly elsewhere (including U.S.) home deaths are vastly under-reported if reported at all. For example, NYC:
Under-counting the dead in NYC: An estimated additional 180 – 195 deaths per day occurring at home in New York City due to COVID-19 are not being counted in the official figures. “Early on in this crisis we were able to swab people who died at home, and thus got a coronavirus reading. But those days are long gone. We simply don’t have the testing capacity for the large numbers dying at home. Now only those few who had a test confirmation *before* dying are marked as victims of coronavirus on their death certificate. This almost certainly means we are undercounting the total number of victims of this pandemic,” said Mark Levine, Chair of New York City Council health committee.
By the way, I definitely now have what my son had. He’s doing much better, thankfully. Perhaps he had Covid-19, perhaps not. We’ll never know. So far in my case it’s mild and I’m hoping it stays that way. Other than high blood pressure I don’t have other underlying health conditions that would put me at risk. My age – 55 – is not really a factor, though it’s more so than someone in their 20s.
Joshua please take care of yourself. Hugs and prayers.
Re: NYC
Exactly. Many deaths are due to covid-19, but are not being tested and will not
be tested. # deaths is considerably higher than being reported. There was a piece
on CNN concerning coroners across the country complaining of just this.
https://www.cnn.com/2020/04/06/health/coronavirus-coroners-uncounted-deaths-invs/index.html
Get well Joshua! Thank you for your huge contributions here and most especially on this topic since it’s obviously of utmost importance at this time..
Watch it closely. Hit the ER if necessary.
2nd day in a row, the Massachusetts numbers are slow to being released. Yesterday it was about 4:40 PM.
I’m obsessed with these numbers and it pisses me off when they aren’t ready
in time. Yeah, I know….too much time on my hands. Tis true. 🙂
Get well soon Joshua
Hope you feel better soon Joshua !
Cases up and deaths down
https://www.mass.gov/doc/covid-19-cases-in-massachusetts-as-of-april-8-2020/download
I can not say what but Mass hospitals have found something that is helping the worst cases that has not really gotten out and is in trial runs here in mass, possibly why the deaths are starting to go down despite increasing numbers
MA numbers are out, up 1,588 from yesterday to 16,790.
https://www.mass.gov/doc/covid-19-cases-in-massachusetts-as-of-april-8-2020/download
More positive news today….
1. Dow soaring again today (up 780 points and now up around 2400 points on the week) after Sanders dropped out and new data continues to show signs of new COVID-19 cases slowing
2. New case projections adjusted down yet again today by the IHME model. The modeling also shows fewer people will die from coronavirus than previously expected.
https://www.cnn.com/2020/04/08/health/us-coronavirus-wednesday/index.html
* The US will reach its highest daily number of deaths on or around Sunday, according to modeling by the Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation at the University of Washington in Seattle.
* US will reach its peak use of resources — such as hospital beds and ventilators — on or around Saturday.
* On Tuesday, the IHME estimated about 82,000 people will die from coronavirus disease by August. On Wednesday, that estimate was lowered to 60,415. That is a significant drop.
* Johns Hopkins University, which is tracking coronavirus cases worldwide, changed its trending description for the US to “down” — similar to the current trending statuses for Italy and Spain.
Highest 24 hr increase today . Look for this number to get beat no doubt . Still a ways too go here .
And that was what this same model previously predicted. The highest peak for deaths and hospitalizations, per the link above, is expected to happen later this week. The point is we are pretty much at the apex, and things look to get better from here on out. I will put my trust in what the doctors and experts at Johns Hopkins have to say.
I completely disagree mark . Things do not look better from here on out I’m not sure why you continue to not see this . Mark mass has not even peaked yet , have you heard them say mass is at peak .
Except models are now showing themselves to be wrong because we have taken some steps that alter the final.
Just like weather….predictive models are just that. They are a prediction and can’t take variables into consideration so are anything but a definite.
I think disagreeing with parts of what logical folks say is fine. But finding fault …not so much.
Did you read the post above? It agrees with what you said and says the peak is coming this weekend. And then the numbers will start to trend down.
Gov Lamont in CT and Cuomo in NY both said in their press conferences this week that the numbers are flattening out. Havent been following Baker.
This is a headline article on CNN and posts information from experts at Johns Hopkins and the model that Fauci is using as guidance.
I am merely passing this information along….not making it up.
Again I respectfully disagree & we have not agreed on this subject not Even once since the get go !!! We can agree to disagree respectfully.
Jesus John!
Thanks for the positive news Mark!
Thanks Mark. It will keep changing. But it will ONLY keep changing for the better if people stay home
The one thing this is showing is that self isolating IS WORKING. So to anyone who is not or doesn’t think it is necessary and to the many states that are not…gee thanks for keeping this going
Yes I agree. The vast majority of the country has been self isolating for 3+ weeks now so you would expect these numbers to start making a turn for the better. It would actually be quite discouraging if after all this, we were seeing no improvement. Very encouraging.
You would think there would be a huge difference. Sadly, There are far too many instances of folks who are not self isolating in areas where isolation is not required but suggested. In small Sutton alone there has been a huge number out and about at our one park. Some southern states are literally just starting to get on board. Many are still having in person church services etc.
We will not see the end until the entire country is forced to isolate. It would be impossible without that step and it needs to come from the president. Every country that has forced isolation and forced masks has seen an improvement.
I’ve been moved in listening to story after story of people dying, in the ER, on a respirator, and they haven’t had their loved ones at their sides. (Amazing job by nurses and doctors to hold up cell phones to allow a quick goodbye)
My mom died of cancer and I found great peace in being with her the last days of her life and at the moment she died.
So, I really feel for those who are dying alone and for the loved ones who aren’t getting to participate in the good-byes that many have been fortunate to participate in.
Thus, I take no solace in the death numbers and whether they are meeting, exceeding or under-performing previous expectations because of the psychological impact on the survivors of covid 19 victims. And I wouldn’t have had this perspective even just 1o years ago until I went through my mom’s passing.
You brought me to tears. I have been thinking the same. I cannot imagine not being with Mac or mom or dad or brother or in-laws. I have a friend who yesterday lost her dad in a care facility in Sweden. Some older folks with memory difficulty have no way to understand why loved ones no longer visit. But more than that. Down to 60,000 is a positive but gives me no solace.
I think Tom said it really well above. No matter what, this is going to be looked back on as a human tragedy. However, I think it is possible for us to know that while also recognizing that, thanks mainly to our actions, we are on track to substantially improve upon earlier fatality estimates. The numbers remain encouraging.
So I agree with Tom: I take no solace in the tens or hundreds of thousands of fatalities that will or have already occurred worldwide. However, I do think we can feel good and inspired in the fact that we are likely saving as many or more lives than we are losing thanks to our actions. That is, to put it plainly, pretty freaking awesome.
77 new deaths , 1,588 new ma cases ( highest 24 hr reading to date ) the peak officially has not arrived but it’s getting better — Jesus John !!! I’ve known people directed affected by this , I have people in my family with severe suppressed immune systems that there petrified for there life of getting this . It’s not getting better . It’s scary , sad all rolled into one .
Keep the positive news coming please! Yes this is going to be a tough week or two but just remember, every day we wake up is one day closer to getting back to life as we somewhat knew it.
Thank you, everyone, for your well wishes. I’m doing okay. Don’t know if it is Covid-19. But will presume it is and stay isolated.
As people know, I’m less sanguine about Covid-19 than I was. The new `data’ do not change my mind. Modeled data are just that. I respect the modellers a lot. I personally know some of them. But, I am always skeptical about verification, on either side of the spectrum of models (worst v. best case scenarios). What I prefer to do is look at the actual data; right now a 5-day average of over 31,000 new cases a day, and closing in on a second 1,900 plus deaths day. It’s not encouraging unless you live west of the Mississippi. Take Massachusetts, for example. We’re about to leapfrog Louisiana for confirmed cases – Louisiana is itself is a hotspot – and will probably be 4th in the nation by next week. 3rd is unlikely as Michigan is a major hotspot.
Moreover, suppose we are plateauing as a nation, consider where that level is at: ~30,000 new cases a day, Best case scenario is 3,000 of those new cases are seriously ill, and 750 die. My guess is we’ll plateau for a while, just like Italy has for 3 weeks. Then, there’s the lengthy tail as we retreat back to 20,000, 15,000, 10,000, etc … Doing back of the envelope calculations that’s a tremendous amount of death and a long period of time. And here, I’m not even talking about the hundreds of thousands of cases we already have, thousands of whom will die.
It’s almost impossible to correctly project numbers of deaths, given the fact that the model’s behavioral assumptions have us in lockdown mode until August. I’m doubtful we’ll do that. Also, the model projects lower case fatality over time. That has certainly not panned out. Our CFR is twice what it was 2-3 weeks ago. Heck, even Germany’s CFR has increased 3-fold over time, which was not projected in the models.
If someone had told me in February that the U.S. would lead the world in numbers of cases by a wide margin already, within 10-14 days will have more cases than the EU and UK combined (US population is considerably smaller than EU and UK), and be number one in deaths by April 12th with many more deaths to come over the coming months I would have said that to that person, “you’re out of your mind.” I was wrong at the time to minimize this virus. I’ve learned my lesson the hard way.
I do think Americans are suffering from collective amnesia when we conveniently forget our government officials told us 3-4 weeks ago that we had this “virus contained.” By the way, that is not a partisan statement. Cuomo said it as well. He downplayed the virus as much as anyone in the White House.
Please ..this is something we can all do.
Place a single candle in your window for all medical folks, first responders, postal carriers, grocery workers, truck drivers, and ALL who are risking themselves to keep us safe
Security Officers as well.
I was in a Citzens Bank yesterday to deposit a check and the tellers did not have shields for protection. Even the smallest convenience stores now have that much at their counters.
You might as well add bank tellers to the list as well, Vicki!
New C-19 Chat Post is up.