Good morning and thank you TK.
I did get one of those warnings on this page, but not on weather pages.
got this
Warning: count(): Parameter must be an array or an object that implements Countable in /home/public/wp-includes/class-wp-comment-query.php on line 388
me too
It’s at top of blog befoee posts. And also mixed in with names on right panel
Yes that error should disappear eventually.
Sure isn’t interfering with the blog
It appears that we’ll have a good day with respect to new cases and deaths. Perhaps as a nation we’ll stay under 20,000 new cases and 1,000 deaths for the day. Some of this is due to the Sunday effect. But, I think there is finally a favorable trend emerging and a decline from the plateau. I may be jumping the gun. But, I’m feeling somewhat optimistic today.
Based on the Massachusetts numbers the last several days, I see no reason
to be optimistic, not yet anyway. We shall see what today’s numbers look like.
I’m saying for the U.S. as a whole. I agree with you on Massachusetts. We’re still in trouble, as are several other hotspots. But, for the U.S. I see some sustained positive data for 3 straight days. The caveat is the weekend data collection.
By the way, there’s a ton of activity near my apartment. Demonstrations, I’m assuming the open up people, helicopters overhead.
The CDC report is doom and gloom (referenced in the tweet in my previous post). I’m not buying it at this point. The skeptic in me was wrong in February. Let’s hope I’m right in May. One of the reasons I’m not buying the truly horrific implications of the CDC report is weather-related. TK is right to point out that heat and sunlight do a number on rhinoviruses, influenza, and coronaviruses. This helps explain the general north/south divide on numbers of cases. There’s some evidence of this in developing nations, where the numbers of cases haven’t increased as predicted.
Perhaps the CDC is taking into consideration more states opening up?
Yes, I think you’re right.
It’s important, however, to recognize that opening up is a relative term. It’s not on or off. The nation was never truly in lockdown. So, it wasn’t totally off. And, the states that have reopened are not nearly totally open. Will these states see rising new cases? Yes. I think this will prolong the plateau. But, I just cannot imagine seeing 200,000 new cases and 3,000 deaths on a daily basis. Maybe I’m being a wishful thinker.
God help us if the CDC is accurate. What’s already a monumental catastrophe would become a never-ending nightmare. On a personal note, my business would be cooked. It’s already hanging on thread. But, the doomsday scenario would finish it off.
From my observations of long range modeling (weather and otherwise) the accuracy of this model is very questionable. While I am in agreement about the path that Charlie Baker is taking, I also don’t buy the “gloom & doom” scenario. But that will become reality if we’re not smart.
I am hoping these latest projections are wrong now calling for 135,000 deaths.
While we may certainly get to 135k, it’s not going to be by way of 3,000 deaths day in late May/early June. In fact, I think the last 3 days’ data are telling a different story. It’ll be more like an average of 1,000 deaths a day for a while, then 500, etc … We may finally be declining from the plateau. My guess is tomorrow will show a jump, but if that increase is not back up to 30k new cases and 2,000 deaths I’ll be on the optimism train.
Only 1000 cases reported today with 9000 tests?? This is a dramatic decrease. Hmm…
That is a dramatic decrease in both confirmed cases and test positivity. The latter is even more important. That needs to get to 5% before I’m content.
If this state “opens up” in time for Memorial Day, I bet our already high numbers will zoom to the roof. My hope the extended date will be in June. Frankly, I don’t know when this state will ever be “truly ready”.
I had the sense today from baker that may 18 is when the advisory committees recommendations are due. And I would think that will take review. Also open up means very very slowly in small steps.
I think you may see what were seeing here in CT starting May 20th where restaurants can open if they have outside seating which has to be six feet apart, restaurants continue doing take out, and hair and nail salons open with probably time in between appointments to clean the work area. Of note no large venues will be open and bars and gyms will remained closed. A decision on schools for the rest of the year will come tomorrow and I believe distance learning will continue for the rest of the school year.
I like hearing a slow reopening from governors Lamont and Cuomo. If we do what Georgia did for example and rush the reopening you could see a spike and erase all the progress that has made.
I sincerely hope that the Massachusetts numbers are equally encouraging tomorrow
as they were today. I would like to see a nice downward trend.
I never feel as though the weekend numbers settle down until we get to Tuesday.
Good morning and thank you TK.
I did get one of those warnings on this page, but not on weather pages.
got this
Warning: count(): Parameter must be an array or an object that implements Countable in /home/public/wp-includes/class-wp-comment-query.php on line 388
me too
It’s at top of blog befoee posts. And also mixed in with names on right panel
Yes that error should disappear eventually.
Sure isn’t interfering with the blog
It appears that we’ll have a good day with respect to new cases and deaths. Perhaps as a nation we’ll stay under 20,000 new cases and 1,000 deaths for the day. Some of this is due to the Sunday effect. But, I think there is finally a favorable trend emerging and a decline from the plateau. I may be jumping the gun. But, I’m feeling somewhat optimistic today.
I’m also going to pretend I didn’t see this doomsday scenario from the CDC: https://twitter.com/ScottGottliebMD/status/1257342824657412104/photo/1
Based on the Massachusetts numbers the last several days, I see no reason
to be optimistic, not yet anyway. We shall see what today’s numbers look like.
I’m saying for the U.S. as a whole. I agree with you on Massachusetts. We’re still in trouble, as are several other hotspots. But, for the U.S. I see some sustained positive data for 3 straight days. The caveat is the weekend data collection.
By the way, there’s a ton of activity near my apartment. Demonstrations, I’m assuming the open up people, helicopters overhead.
The CDC report is doom and gloom (referenced in the tweet in my previous post). I’m not buying it at this point. The skeptic in me was wrong in February. Let’s hope I’m right in May. One of the reasons I’m not buying the truly horrific implications of the CDC report is weather-related. TK is right to point out that heat and sunlight do a number on rhinoviruses, influenza, and coronaviruses. This helps explain the general north/south divide on numbers of cases. There’s some evidence of this in developing nations, where the numbers of cases haven’t increased as predicted.
Perhaps the CDC is taking into consideration more states opening up?
Yes, I think you’re right.
It’s important, however, to recognize that opening up is a relative term. It’s not on or off. The nation was never truly in lockdown. So, it wasn’t totally off. And, the states that have reopened are not nearly totally open. Will these states see rising new cases? Yes. I think this will prolong the plateau. But, I just cannot imagine seeing 200,000 new cases and 3,000 deaths on a daily basis. Maybe I’m being a wishful thinker.
God help us if the CDC is accurate. What’s already a monumental catastrophe would become a never-ending nightmare. On a personal note, my business would be cooked. It’s already hanging on thread. But, the doomsday scenario would finish it off.
From my observations of long range modeling (weather and otherwise) the accuracy of this model is very questionable. While I am in agreement about the path that Charlie Baker is taking, I also don’t buy the “gloom & doom” scenario. But that will become reality if we’re not smart.
I am hoping these latest projections are wrong now calling for 135,000 deaths.
While we may certainly get to 135k, it’s not going to be by way of 3,000 deaths day in late May/early June. In fact, I think the last 3 days’ data are telling a different story. It’ll be more like an average of 1,000 deaths a day for a while, then 500, etc … We may finally be declining from the plateau. My guess is tomorrow will show a jump, but if that increase is not back up to 30k new cases and 2,000 deaths I’ll be on the optimism train.
Only 1000 cases reported today with 9000 tests?? This is a dramatic decrease. Hmm…
That is a dramatic decrease in both confirmed cases and test positivity. The latter is even more important. That needs to get to 5% before I’m content.
If this state “opens up” in time for Memorial Day, I bet our already high numbers will zoom to the roof. My hope the extended date will be in June. Frankly, I don’t know when this state will ever be “truly ready”.
I had the sense today from baker that may 18 is when the advisory committees recommendations are due. And I would think that will take review. Also open up means very very slowly in small steps.
I think you may see what were seeing here in CT starting May 20th where restaurants can open if they have outside seating which has to be six feet apart, restaurants continue doing take out, and hair and nail salons open with probably time in between appointments to clean the work area. Of note no large venues will be open and bars and gyms will remained closed. A decision on schools for the rest of the year will come tomorrow and I believe distance learning will continue for the rest of the school year.
I can’t see this area opening any time soon. This is as dramatic as it gets
https://imgur.com/a/980vEpy
I like hearing a slow reopening from governors Lamont and Cuomo. If we do what Georgia did for example and rush the reopening you could see a spike and erase all the progress that has made.
I sincerely hope that the Massachusetts numbers are equally encouraging tomorrow
as they were today. I would like to see a nice downward trend.
I never feel as though the weekend numbers settle down until we get to Tuesday.
Tweet from Howard Forman about COVID19
https://twitter.com/thehowie/status/1257441684121694210
C-19 for 5-5 is up…