My outlook for this winter is pretty straightforward, and will presented just that way. I’m going to spare going into detail on the technical stuff and we can discuss that in the comment section below if you are interested.
What I will say is that all major factors influencing climate were taken into account (PDO, AO, NAO, QBO, solar cycle, ENSO, among other things). The major players in the pattern this winter will be an easterly QBO (winds predominantly from the east at high altitudes over the equatorial Pacific Ocean), neutral ENSO (neither La Nina nor El Nino), an often negative AO/NAO (blocking pattern in the northern hemisphere), and a weak solar maximum (higher sunspot activity but not out of control).
I think the most important thing these lead to is a tendency for drier than normal conditions (which may become a problem as 2013 goes on). This is a pattern of variable temperatures but frequent spells of cooler than normal weather, which we have not seen for the better part of a couple years. The general pattern under this setup features a mean ridge position in the middle of the US with troughs dominating both the East and West Coasts. This pattern also favors frequent cut-off low pressure areas near or off the East Coast. The blocking may be fairly strong on a frequent basis, and this is the reasoning for the drier forecast. Blocking too strong would force many of the storms to be too far south and/or east to have major impact on New England. This type of a pattern may spell out bigger snow totals for the Middle Atlantic.
So, what are we gonna see? I will consider the 2012-2013 winter to be December 1 through March 31, even though we can and do see snow in April and even as late as May. The winter overall should feature near to below normal temperatures, below normal precipitation, and near to below normal snowfall. The month by month breakdown:
December… Temperature: near to below normal. Precipitation: below normal. Snow: near to below normal.
January… Temperature: below to much below normal. Precipitation: below normal. Snow: near to below normal.
Feburary… Temperature: near to below normal. Precipitation: near to below normal. Snow: near to below normal.
March… Temperature: near normal. Precipitation: near to above normal. Snow: Near to above normal.
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