The Week Ahead (Update)

113 Comments

12:12AM

There are no significant changes to the discussion issued early Sunday morning. What I am doing in this update is adding some cloudiness to the Monday forecast. Still enough of a low pressure trough over us through the day to allow some additional cloudiness – more than I had been expecting. Also may be a band of clouds with a reinforcing cold front which will be passing through late in the day. So, slightly less bright for Monday, still a bright and chilly Election Day, and a midweek storm to deal with.

Updated forecast for eastern MA, southern NH, and RI…

MONDAY: Partly sunny. Highs 44-49. Wind N 5-15 MPH.

MONDAY NIGHT: Mostly clear. Lows in the 20s except some upper 10s inland valley areas. Wind N under 10 MPH.

TUESDAY – ELECTION DAY: Sunny. Highs 43-48. Wind N-NW 5-15 MPH.

WEDNESDAY: Clouding over south to north followed by rain developing south to north. Potential for some mix/snow higher elevations well NW of Boston. Low 29. High 45.

THURSDAY: Cloudy. Rain/wind, tapering off late. Low 38. High 50 (possibly warmer SE).

FRIDAY: Mostly cloudy to partly sunny. Low 33. High 48.

SATURDAY: Mostly sunny. Low 34. High 52.

SUNDAY: Partly cloudy. Low 36. High 57.

113 thoughts on “The Week Ahead (Update)”

  9. Good morning all.

    Perhaps I am missing something, but the latest runs of the models
    seemed to have backed off a bit on the intensity of this upcoming
    system, most especially the Euro.

    Any thoughts?

    Have a good one.

    Oh btw, on a non-weather note: If you get a chance, see the Movie FLIGHT!
    An Absolutely amazing film! Denzel will take an Oscar for this performance.

    2. I saw that on the models too OS. Looks like the storm reaches its peak strength off the NJ coast and then gets ripped apart as it approaches us. Kinda weird.

      1. I don’t think that it gets ripped apart, rather than it
        begins to fill. Thjat is reaching the end of it’s intensification
        period and starting to weaken.

        1. Hmmm, interesting. I guess I’ve never seen a nor’easter weaken as it gets to us, they;re always “bombing out” over us. Will this storm have a tropical component to it, maybe explaining why it weakens when it gets up here? Or am i just losing my mind, lol

      1. I have ARGO on my list. I have heard it is excellent. My sister-in-law was a flight attendant for Pan Am at the time and was one of the ones who had volunteered to go in to get the hostages in Iran until the plans to use Pan Am fell through. She was on the one Pam Am 747 that was allowed in after the hostages to get any westerners out who were in danger.

  11. Those snow showers I believe are confined to the coastal areas, not that big of a surprise as we usually see fluries this time of year. Boston should be under 32 tomorrow morning, maybe 30 degrees.

    1. the 6z NAM had temps above freezing in entire column in Boston roughly at that time all the way to 700mb.

      same run shows worcester above freezing aloft too from about 825mb to 925. If you like snow, the nuances don’t matter since it’ll be rain in both places. It’s neat to look at anyway!

  13. Hi All,
    It is time to come back now that the snow is almost upon us. I have been reading all the comments and they have been great especially during Sandy. I have a quick question for Thursday morning. I have a flight out of Logan 7:00am on Thursday, would it make sense to try to change this to Wednesday morning. It seems to me early Thursday might be the peak of the storm. It is not snow that worries me it is winds at that time.

    2. Welcome back haterain!

      If the Pats can fly into Boston the morning of Sandy, I would bet u’d be able to fly in thurs morning 😛

      1. If we are to believe the latest runs, the storm “should” be in a more weakened state come Thursday AM. Should be AOK for your flight.

    3. welcome back!!! We are predicting winter 2012-2013 snow accumulations at Logan to the nearest tenth if you would like to join in the fun. The sort of deadline is November 15!!

  14. Thanks tk,, I don’t think we see any snow even in central mass, I think the snow accumulations will be western mass eastern ny

  16. I have been away from the blog for a few days – TK, glad to hear you are home and feeling better!

    12z GFS shows a similar scenario to the Euro – the storm gains strength and tracks north to the NJ coast before stopping dead in its tracks and just slowly weakening during the day Thursday and into Friday. Odd setup indeed!

    With the arrival of the precip after dark Wed and cold air still in place, I think we are looking good for at least some wet snow at the start in the higher elevations of northern CT, west/central MA, and southern VT/NH.

  19. EURO is further east and south. Keeps much colder air in place which allows the frozen precip. It leaves us with much less QPF as the storm just stalls.

      1. glad to see you’re in the clouds too O.S.

        Link not coming through but I’ll chase it around.

        Hope you’re right.

        I’d like to see some early snow then nice mild weather right to the new year

  23. I am glad that the storm won’t start in earnest ’til Weds. evening as I have an appt. in Boston Weds. morning. In any case, I would like to see a few snowflakes in the air Thurs. but I have a feeling any snow will be well west and north of here. And why would this storm start to weaken as it approaches us?

  24. Guys I would not count on any significant snow around this area, don’t be fooled by that run. Some rain and wind. But dont worry the snow will be flying next month.

      1. Being realistic. I do believe we get buried though this winter, as do you I assume with your high guess. Have a nice day, I am.

  25. the nam is also trended colder as well as the euro but the euro is much weaker than the last run. would want to watch as the euro has been slightly moving east its last few runs. The gfs still has a big rain storm

  26. Vicki my prediction for Logan is 52.3 inches. I don’t think it is going to be a real snowy winter but I think we are going to have one blockbuster storm. I think some of the suburbs of Boston may see up to two feet. Obviously this is just a gut feeling but we are due, and the way things are shaping up right now it could be early in the year. That is why I am predicting a little more snow than normal.

  28. Let’s not get too excited about snow in early November. I do think ski country will get some snow out of this weakening system. However, Boston and coastal areas will not. Maybe I’m mistaken and my memory is not what it once was, but I have not ever experienced measurable snow (>1 inch) in early November in the Boston area. Flurries, yes. Snow showers, yes. Even a little wet snow that doesn’t stick around. But, not real snow.

    3. Although it doesn’t happen often, I have seen it before. November of 1972, I believe, we had 5-6 inches in the City of Boston and I do believe that it was rather early in November.

      1. As I said last night I believe the last November snowstorm was the day before thanksgiving the late 90s or just after. I THINK 90s.

  29. 18Z NAM is in.

    Here it is, still cold aloft at 54 hours:

    http://mag.ncep.noaa.gov/NCOMAGWEB/appcontroller?prevPage=Model&MainPage=index&image=&page=Param&cycle=11%2F05%2F2012+18UTC&rname=SFC-LAYER+PARMS&pname=850_temp_mslp_precip&pdesc=&model=NAM&area=NAMER&cat=MODEL+GUIDANCE&fcast=054&areaDesc=North+America+-+US+Canada+and+northern+Mexico&prevArea=NAMER&currKey=model&returnToModel=&imageSize=M

    Then warms considerably aloft by 57 hours:

    http://mag.ncep.noaa.gov/NCOMAGWEB/appcontroller?page=Image&prevPage=Param&image=..%2FGemPakTier%2FMagGemPakImages%2Fnam%2F20121105%2F18%2Fnam_namer_054_850_temp_mslp_precip.gif&fcast=054&model=NAM&area=NAMER&storm=&areaDesc=North+America+-+US+Canada+and+northern+Mexico&cat=MODEL+GUIDANCE&rname=SFC-LAYER+PARMS&pname=850_temp_mslp_precip&cycle=11%2F05%2F2012+18UTC&imageSize=M&currKey=model&scrollx=0&scrolly=0&nextImage=yes

    Notice the colder air aloft moving in well to the Southwest. The NAM doesn’t seem to be onboard with a weaker system?

    Mother Nature prepared to surprise us again in some form or another????

  32. I would not be surprised to see some snow flying, but we have to be realistic in terms of what. Nothing will accumulate here in eastern areas. Guidance is just that, we need to keep in mind several other factors that are just not favorable for much of anything in the area this time of year.

      1. Couldnt have said it better myself Old Salty. After the past few years around here weatherwise, nothing would surprise me.

  33. As I said the other day for those that see wintry precipitation with this storm system it could be the last for a while as the cold shifts out to the west and the warmth shifts to the east.

  34. I had a feeling this storm would throw a few curveballs. It was too good to be true to have so much model agreement so far in advance. I think the TV mets will start pulling back on the strong wording regarding this storm. Not even sure it will deserve the title of nor’easter. Curious to see how the models handle tonight and tomorrows runs.

    1. For the sake of those south of us this is one I hope fizzles. I’d sure like to see a few flakes though.

    1. Hahahaha. So far we have heat only in grandsons bedroom. I can’t move our bed to vacuum inside the baseboard heater behind it. I did the rest. So told my husband no heat until he gets it vacuumed. We will see if we turn on our heat tonight!

  36. 18Z GFS at 51 hours:

    http://mag.ncep.noaa.gov/NCOMAGWEB/appcontroller?page=Image&prevPage=Param&image=..%2FGemPakTier%2FMagGemPakImages%2Fgfs%2F20121105%2F18%2Fgfs_namer_054_850_temp_mslp_precip.gif&fcast=054&model=GFS&area=NAMER&storm=&areaDesc=North+America+-+US+Canada+and+northern+Mexico&cat=MODEL+GUIDANCE&rname=SFC-LAYER+PARMS&pname=850_temp_mslp_precip&cycle=11%2F05%2F2012+18UTC&imageSize=M&currKey=model&scrollx=0&scrolly=20&prevArea=NAMER&prevImage=yes

    Stil COLD at 850MB

    However, 1000-500MB thickness still a bit to the West:

    http://mag.ncep.noaa.gov/NCOMAGWEB/appcontroller?prevPage=Param&MainPage=index&image=&page=Param&cycle=11%2F05%2F2012+18UTC&rname=SFC-LAYER+PARMS&pname=1000_500_thick&pdesc=&model=GFS&area=NAMER&cat=MODEL+GUIDANCE&fcast=051&areaDesc=North+America+-+US+Canada+and+northern+Mexico&prevArea=NAMER&currKey=model&returnToModel=&imageSize=M

    BUT the important fact is, the models are TRENDING COLDER. he he he

  37. NWS has posted a HIGH WIND WATCH for our area:

    URGENT – WEATHER MESSAGE
    NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
    420 PM EST MON NOV 5 2012

    …STRONG COASTAL STORM TO IMPACT PORTIONS OF SOUTHERN NEW
    ENGLAND TOWARD THE MIDDLE OF THIS WEEK…

    MAZ006-007-013>024-RIZ001>008-060530-
    /O.NEW.KBOX.HW.A.0005.121107T1100Z-121108T1100Z/
    WESTERN ESSEX MA-EASTERN ESSEX MA-WESTERN NORFOLK MA-
    SOUTHEAST MIDDLESEX MA-SUFFOLK MA-EASTERN NORFOLK MA-
    NORTHERN BRISTOL MA-WESTERN PLYMOUTH MA-EASTERN PLYMOUTH MA-
    SOUTHERN BRISTOL MA-SOUTHERN PLYMOUTH MA-BARNSTABLE MA-DUKES MA-
    NANTUCKET MA-NORTHWEST PROVIDENCE RI-SOUTHEAST PROVIDENCE RI-
    WESTERN KENT RI-EASTERN KENT RI-BRISTOL RI-WASHINGTON RI-
    NEWPORT RI-BLOCK ISLAND RI-
    INCLUDING THE CITIES OF…LAWRENCE…GLOUCESTER…FOXBORO…
    NORWOOD…CAMBRIDGE…BOSTON…QUINCY…TAUNTON…BROCKTON…
    PLYMOUTH…FALL RIVER…NEW BEDFORD…MATTAPOISETT…CHATHAM…
    FALMOUTH…PROVINCETOWN…VINEYARD HAVEN…NANTUCKET…FOSTER…
    SMITHFIELD…PROVIDENCE…WEST GREENWICH…WARWICK…BRISTOL…
    NARRAGANSETT…WESTERLY…NEWPORT…BLOCK ISLAND
    420 PM EST MON NOV 5 2012

    …HIGH WIND WATCH IN EFFECT FROM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH LATE
    WEDNESDAY NIGHT…

    THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN TAUNTON HAS ISSUED A HIGH WIND
    WATCH…WHICH IS IN EFFECT FROM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH LATE
    WEDNESDAY NIGHT.

    * LOCATIONS…RHODE ISLAND AND PORTIONS OF EASTERN MASSACHUSETTS.

    * HAZARDS…STRONG…GUSTY WINDS.

    * WINDS…NORTHEAST 25 TO 35 MPH WITH GUSTS UP TO 60 MPH.

    * TIMING…WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON INTO THURSDAY MORNING.

    * IMPACTS…POTENTIAL FOR DOWNED TREES AND POWER LINES…WHICH
    COULD LEAD TO SCATTERED POWER OUTAGES.

    PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS…

    A HIGH WIND WATCH MEANS THE POTENTIAL EXISTS FOR STRONG DAMAGING
    WINDS TO DEVELOP IN THE MENTIONED AREAS. THESE STRONG WINDS ARE
    CAPABLE OF DOWNING TREES AND POWER LINES AS WELL AS CAUSING
    PROPERTY DAMAGE. IF A HIGH WIND WARNING IS ISSUED…STAY INSIDE
    AND AWAY FROM WINDOWS.

    &&

  38. Hi all. Welcome back haterain!

    First day out of the hospital and I’ve been running around everywhere. Errands, 2 oil changes, etc. Dinner break then I’ll catch up on comments here and post a new blog this evening sometime.

    I have seen somebody forecast a snowstorm for the entirety of New England, including Cape Cod. I mention this only because I completely disagree with it. I will not name the source though a few of you may know who I am referring to. I’m not going to bash anybody on this blog. Not my style, other than an occasional joke all in good fun.

    Be back soon!

    1. Good to hear from you TK and that you are up and around with your normal activities. Continue taking care of yourself and do whatever your physician tells you. 🙂

      I have no idea who the person is but I can’t imagine any met around here that would seriously give a forecast like that this early in November.

      I would also like to add that snow or no snow in November has no correlation whatsoever as to what the upcoming winter will be. October as we all know from last year and previous years is a different story. 😉

  39. Todd is calling for a few snowflakes even here in Boston at the beginning of the storm come Wednesday evening!

  40. Harvey at 6:00 said that models are trending colder and he showed a couple of them with 1-2″ of snow for Boston….hmmm.

  41. John have you checked out what your friend Harvey from channel 5 is say on twitter in regards to snow for eastern mass?

    1. I don’t care what Harvey is saying. I let my guard down last week, wont let it happen again. No snow around these parts. Maybe higher up. Talk to me Thursday. Have a nice night, I am. Snow showers don’t count.

  42. Things got a bit interesting and I’ll leave it at that.
    I’ll be hearing it from people if this storm happens since The Farmers’ Almanac had this storm between the 4th-7th of November.

  43. Now that things have begun to slow down at the golf course I have time to add to the discussions regarding what looks to be an active winter. Harvey had an interesting graphic up towards the end of the 6:00 newscast. His “future cast” for two different model outputs showed 3-4″ for western mass, close to 3″ in a strip from 495 west to outside of Worcester and 1-2″ in Boston…the other setup had 4-5″ out in western mass. Harvey mentioned that “every time I look at this it appears colder and colder”. With consecutive cold nights (20’s) and marginally warm days (40’s) if the forecast verified it would hold on some paved surfaces as well as grassy areas.

        1. Thats awesome Nick! Im a big golfer and work weekends at a driving range in north attleboro. The season has definately slowed down.

          2. Ace I think next spring we should get a golf game going for everyone here who plays I can’t play but know Mac would be happy to play for me!

        2. My husband and son played quail ridge using a groupon or one of those coupons this past summer. They liked it a lot. Husband said there is a lot of building there. My son has a good friend who is a super at Stow.

          1. Jason VanBuskirk over at Stow Acres?
            The construction is awful, I work for the company that manages the golf course and we have nothing to do with the construction. Glad they enjoyed it.

            1. Ill be darned. Yes Jason. He and my son have been friends since middle school I think.

              See my note to haterain above re snow predictions for the season. Please make sure I tell you I saw your guess. If not remind me.

              My husband is on the edge of his seat. He wants to know if quail ridge has winter rates. He and friend played juniper hill yesterday for $30 for as many holes as they could get in. They finished 17:)

                1. Too funny! 56.8″ for my prediction.

                  Right now we are still in Fall rates which are weekdays $40 w/ cart and weekends $55 w/ cart.

                  We usually drop rates the week after thanksgiving to super low because we Topdress the greens fairly heavy with sand to protect them over the winter. If you let me know before they plan to play I am sure I can get them a few bucks off.

                2. Jason is a great super, published in a couple different magazines, has a tremendous social presence in the industry and very willing to help the other guys and gals in the area.

                3. That is very nice of you Nick. Thank you!

                  My computer is shut down so I haven’t recorded your prediction. Ill confirm tomorrow!! If I don’t toss a golf ball at me please 😉

  44. Thanks TK it is good to back although it doesn’t feel like I ever left because I read it everyday. I made the airline change so I am flying out Wednesday at 10:30 AM rather than 7:00 am Thursday morning. I hope that wasn’t a mistake it almost seems like the winds will be the same at both of those times.

  45. So just for fun, i went back into the archives to see the discussions regarding the Halloween storm last year. Same types of comments as this storm…interesting to say the least 😀

  46. It will be interesting to see the next few model runs and if it continues to trend colder. Even where it does snow MINOR snowfall amounts.

  47. I doubt we will see any accumulating snow (though that would be awesome), but snow showers definitely count for something!

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