DAYS 1-5 (NOVEMBER 30 – DECEMBER 4)
The model joy ride continues. Who knows what road they will take next? Or maybe this is more like watching a bunch of people who can’t drive racing around a small track. Whatever you want to compare it to, we continue to see little or no agreement between various models beyond just a number of hours, and models that can’t even agree with themselves from run to run. Instead of beating a dead horse further though right now, just onto how I think the weather unfolds in the time before us. Today’s a cold a one. We start bright then sun battles with some increased high and patchy mid level clouds as the remains of a weakening clipper low move in from the west. This system may produce a brief period of very light snow for parts of our region this evening before it moves out. The pattern of quickly moving disturbances, often timed differently and in most cases weaker than modeled a few days out will continue, and the next one will be in the form of a low pressure area passing north of us Thursday. Its warm front will approach later Wednesday with advancing clouds, and we’ll get into a warm sector between the warm front and an approaching cold front Thursday, at which time any precipitation should be in the form of rain, though it doesn’t look like much will take place. The cold front will come through and clear us back out as we turn windy and colder through Friday. The next weakening clipper type system is due Saturday – again not looking like more than just some cloudiness with a few snow showers possible.
TODAY: Uninterrupted sun through mid morning, then variably cloudy. Highs 36-43. Wind W-SW 5-10 MPH, a few gusts up to 15 MPH.
TONIGHT: Mostly cloudy with spotty very light snow evening – no accumulation. Clearing overnight. Lows 23-30. Wind SW up to 10 MPH.
WEDNESDAY: Sunny morning. Increasing clouds afternoon. Highs 40-47. Wind SW-S 5-15 MPH.
WEDNESDAY NIGHT: Mostly cloudy. Brief very light snow possible late evening. Chance of rain showers overnight. Lows 30-37 evening, followed by a slow temperature rise. Wind S 5-15 MPH.
THURSDAY: Variably cloudy. Chance of rain showers. Highs 46-53. Wind SW 10-20 MPH.
THURSDAY NIGHT: Partly cloudy. Lows 25-32. Wind W to NW 10-20 MPH with higher gusts possible.
FRIDAY: Partly cloudy. Highs 35-42. Wind NW 10-20 MPH with higher gusts.
FRIDAY NIGHT: Partly cloudy. Lows 22-29. Wind W 5-15 MPH.
SATURDAY: Variably cloudy. Chance of a few snow showers. Highs 35-42. Wind variable 5-15 MPH.
DAYS 6-10 (DECEMBER 5-9)
No big changes here. Nearly useless guidance. Knowing the pattern helps. The most likely fair weather times are early and again at end of period. December 6-8 is vulnerable to unsettled weather from a couple passing disturbances, which are probably going to be less potent than shown on current medium range guidance.
DAYS 11-15 (DECEMBER 10-14)
Again no big changes. Take the DAYS 6-10 section and apply it here with even more emphasis on model variability and “inability” further out in time, magnified by the difficulty they have with a fast-flow pattern in a La Nina. We’ll probably have two disturbances potentially impact the region with precipitation chances as the pattern does look somewhat active, but I don’t see it as a pattern that can produce slower moving and/or powerful storms.