Wednesday July 29 2020 Forecast

57 Comments

7:35AM

DAYS 1-5 ( JULY 29 – AUGUST 2)

One cold front came through the region late yesterday but due to warm air aloft, shower and thunderstorm development was quite limited, with most of the activity (small downpours and a few thunderstorms) being limited to near the South Coast in the most humid air with a little help from convergence. Now we have a batch of less humid and slightly cooler air in the region today, which by definition will still turn out to be a hot summer day. You’ll just notice it being a little easier to take than yesterday was. Reminder: If you are working or exercising outside, it’s still important to take breaks and hydrate, even if it’s “not as bad”. Also of important note, while today will be a dry (rain-free) day for the vast majority of the the southeastern New England region, the front that went by yesterday is not that far to the south and some moisture still moving up along it has produced an area of showers and thunderstorms south southwest of New England overnight, and a piece of this may clip Martha’s Vineyard and the elbow of Cape Cod and likely crossing Nantucket during mid to perhaps late morning… We get some of the humidity back Thursday, but not really any up-tick in the heat from today. This will occur as another cold front approaches and moves into the region. Similar to yesterday, a few showers and storms may ignite with the approach and passage of this front, but I’m not expecting widespread activity and the risk of any severe storms is quite low. This front likely will hang itself up near the South Coast for a while on Friday and a little ripple of low pressure may move along it, keeping cloudiness over the region for a time on Friday and possibly some wet weather especially near the South Coast. Finally, high pressure should win out and provide nice weather for later Friday and Saturday as we make the transition from July to August. Sunday, look for an increase in both humidity and cloudiness as a some tropical moisture moves up from the southwest. While right now I think we may get through most of that day rain-free, at day 5 there is some uncertainty with the timing of such a threat, so just looking at it as a threat of afternoon showers at this time and will adjust and detail as it gets closer.

TODAY: Lots of clouds South Coast, especially Cape Cod, through mid morning with some passing rain showers islands and elbow of Cape, otherwise mostly sunny. Less humid. Highs 85-92, cooler South Coast. Wind W 5-15 MPH.

TONIGHT: Mostly clear. Lows 60-67. Wind NW 5-15 MPH.

THURSDAY: Partly cloudy. More humid. Risk of a passing shower or thunderstorm, mainly mid to late afternoon. Highs 82-89. Wind W 5-15 MPH.

THURSDAY NIGHT: Mostly cloudy. Lows 61-68. Wind NW 5-15 MPH.

FRIDAY: Mostly cloudy morning including a risk of showers near the South Coast.. Clearing afternoon. Highs 78-85. Wind N 5-15 MPH.

FRIDAY NIGHT: Mostly clear. Lows 58-65. Wind N to variable up to 10 MPH.

SATURDAY: Mostly sunny. Highs 80-87. Wind variable up to 10 MPH with sea breezes.

SATURDAY NIGHT: Clear. Lows 61-68. Wind variable under 10 MPH.

SUNDAY: Increasing clouds. Risk of afternoon showers. More humid. Highs 78-85, coolest coastal areas. Wind SE up to 10 MPH.

DAYS 6-10 (AUGUST 3-7)

We’ll be watching a tropical system (currently TD 9 in the eastern Caribbean and forecast to become TS Isaias as it moves through the Caribbean and toward the Bahamas and/or South Florida by the weekend. While we have a pattern in place here that supports southerly air flow and tropical moisture, typical for early August, we’ll have to keep an eye on the track of this system, even if it dissipates over the Southeast US, for potential enhanced rainfall somewhere in the early to middle portion of this forecast period. Too early for any definitive call on this.

DAYS 11-15 (AUGUST 8-12)

Current indications are for a weak westerly flow aloft and at the surface a potential battle between high pressure in Canada and high pressure off the US East Coast. This type of pattern can produce episodes of showers and thunderstorms but still plenty of rain-free hours as well.

57 thoughts on “Wednesday July 29 2020 Forecast”

  1. Good morning and thank you TK,
    Noticeably more comfortable today.

    Let’s keep it that way.

  3. I know I have mentioned a few times about the weather teasers read by the radio anchors.

    This morning’s made me laugh out loud while I was driving…

    “well it did look like our weekend would be beautiful from start to finish, but now, it looks like we may end up with some showers in the aftermath of a tropical storm.”

    Huh?

      1. Yes. I wrote twice now, no reply either time.

        The person in writing to next I suspect will be able to do nothing about it, but I’ll try.

        Whatever. I know what I do well. I’ll just keep being me. Cool beans.

    1. Even if it got up here, so far anyway, looks like it would likely
      be a tropical storm and not a hurricane. At least all intensity
      forecasts keep it a TS or minimal hurricane, but that is
      ALWAYS subject to change. 🙂

      1. I find it difficult to believe, based solely on the most likely path, that this one would be a hurricane any time during its life. Normal time-into-the-future caveats applied.

  8. You know it’s been hot when it’s in the mid 80s at 11am and your thinking this is improvement.

  9. Thanks TK.

    A couple thoughts from me on current/recent events…

    *Similar thoughts to TK on PTC 9. There’s plenty of uncertainty as usual at this stage, but I do not favor it becoming a powerful storm, and while it or its moisture may eventually affect the US, I don’t currently see it as a significant threat.

    *This has been a hot summer. It’s the way it’s happened that’s impressed me. We’re not hitting the really high numbers (mid 90s+) frequently, but it’s been an unrelenting barrage of hotter than average days. Likely to be a top 10 warmest summer or better for many. The next week or two do look a little cooler, though really just closer to average.

    *I’m still mulling over the medium range right now with regards to rain/storm chances. The upper level pattern the next two weeks is definitely different than most of the past couple months. It’s very tempting to say it looks wet, but I’m not sold. I could still see the next couple weeks running below normal for rain in most of SNE, especially if PTC 9 does not become a factor.

    1. In a way, the next couple weeks are a test of whether or not we’re really in or going into drought. In a true drought, this coming pattern would not produce much rain – the “all systems fail” idea. So far, enough systems have held up to keep us from getting in any real trouble with regards to dryness. We’ll see what happens. But I sort of suspect we’re about to take a turn for the worse in that department, which is a bit of a contrarian forecast to what many “on the street” are saying right now. I’m struggling to see the big rains, at least in much of New England. Maybe better chances further south, and that would fit the general theme in recent weeks/months of better rain chances to the south.

      2. Thank you for checking in WxW!
        Agree with your current assessments..

        we’re not having a truly hot summer up here in New England in the classic sense. We’re lacking refreshing Canadian air masses. But we’re also lacking a persistent Bermuda high. So we’ve been warm, with a few bouts of heat, and a lot of onshore wind coming off waters that are warmer than average. That combination is what is doing it.

    2. Thank you, WxW. It is always a pleasure to see your comments. Hope you are well and enjoying NJ.

  11. this PTC9 has already possibly causing power issues in the virgin islands. They typically shut it down for storms that are to be hurricanes but not tropical storms. This is gonna be a rain maker as they are talking up to 10 inches of rain with mudslides and flooding. With the guts on the island and how some of the waterfalls (when it rains) just flow over the roads I wouldn’t be surprised. Would love to get a weather station set up on my patio.

    Some of you have seen this image on my facebook from last year. This was an image from last summer with Dorian on arrival which made landfall just a tad to the west of me so when a system like this is moving south and west of St. Thomas I typically get some strong winds off the water flying up the hill side. https://imgur.com/gallery/i3cEQWE

    I am currently not down there so no pictures or video. Thought I am gonna bet this will not be the last system that impacts the area and I am going back down in August. I am hoping that the MJO and Saharan dust layer continues to keep the MDR dry.

      1. Yup. I think both the gfs and euro went east of Florida. The gfs parked the weak low forever off the FL coast and the euro rides it right up the east coast.

        1. the models have no idea whats happening with this system Especially once its out of the Caribbean.

  13. I see considerable cloudiness, sort of merged cumulus.
    Does not look like a lot of vertical growth, but it is covering
    perhaps 80% of the sky.

    Any chance one would pop something.

    Looks like a little convergence from Sea Breeze.

  14. I said it before and I’ll say it again – until the tropical system actually develops, ALL model solutions are suspect. If you don’t have an actual low-level center, how you can trust that the models are initializing properly (not that they ever do with tropical systems)?

    I also put little stock into intensity forecasts, especially from the models. To put it bluntly, they suck. Always have. Remember, Hanna was never forecast to become a hurricane (by models or NHC) until the center was 18 hours from landfall. Until a low-level center actually develops, intensity forecasts are even more useless than normal, because we have no idea where that center will track.

    I put a little more credence on the Ensembles compared to the others, and they will wash out a lot of the noise. The fact they they have not wavered much on a threat to the East Coast is still very much a concern.

    1. What are your thoughts on the thing further E. A colleague of ours believes that may already be a TD but they have not called it that yet. In fact they don’t even have it identified as a disturbance. I haven’t looked at much today so I haven’t been able to form any ideas myself.

      2. Just took a look at the satellite loop – I don’t see anything out there that even remotely resembles a TD. I can’t even find anything with a circulation.

  18. I know without a center, the models are not dependable. But the 18z GFS for entertainment was fun.

  19. Mike W. Was showing a futurecast map tonight for Tuesday based on today’s runs. I think 6 days out is a bit early.

  20. The storm is no officially Tropical Storm Isaias.

    The trend in the models today (not that I put much faith in them) has been eastward, with a majority showing a track east of Florida and at least into the Carolinas. Several members of the Ensembles (GFS, ECMWF, and CMC) track it all the way up here and some have it at hurricane strength up here. Not saying that will happen, but I can’t dismiss that possibility.

  21. Perhaps some high altitude missions tomorrow to get data for the models to hone in on the atlantic ridge around bermuda and maybe up in canada to help determine if the trof in the midwest is just a southern stream trof or will it be a more phased trof ……..

    1. They should have been doing those today. They also should have sent a plane in tonight. No idea why they didn’t.

      Watches will likely go up for parts of South Florida tomorrow, likely on the 11am advisory, but possibly as early as the 5am. I forecast for a radio station in Boynton Beach, Florida and record the morning drive forecasts before I leave at night, so I will be paying very close attention to this tomorrow.

  22. 00z GFS at hr 108 has a 971 mb storm just east or clipping cape hatteras.

    SSW flow along the coast, what will the rest of the run project ?

  23. 2 things that concern me ….

    1) This is potentially only 120 hrs out, that’s not that far away

    2) The models handling of the northern jet stream in the medium range. Who knows where that trof will set up, will it be positively tilted or could it really sharpen to almost negatively tilted.

    Rarely has the jet near the us/Canada border, down to about 40N latitude verified from 5 days out this warm season, so I highly doubt the projection of the steering currents are correct 120 hrs out . This could be a good thing, but it also could end up being a worse steering flow.

  26. Higher dew points are South of the city and I presume
    that is where the activity will be this afternoon and the city
    gets screwed yet again.

    1. From NWS

      It will take some time to recharge from any showers and
      thunderstorms this morning. By that time, the approaching cold
      front should be at least into central MA. Thinking the greatest
      risk from stronger thunderstorms this afternoon will be towards
      CT, RI and SE MA.

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