Thursday PM Forecast Update

24 Comments

2:59PM

Tropical moisture moving south to north across the Boston area will soak the region with rain over the next few hours. A cold front moving west to east across the region will cause a few more showers overnight, and some wrap-around moisture associated with its parent low pressure system will hold some clouds in for Friday morning. Expect clearing in the afternoon as dry air works in, along with a gusty wind.

High pressure means a great weekend, with a cool start and mild finish.

Indian Summer returns early next week!

Full discussion later… Forecast update now…

THROUGH EARLY EVENING: Overcast with moderate to heavy rain. Temperature cooling from the lower 60s into the 50s. Wind E under 10 MPH.

TONIGHT: Mostly cloudy. Scattered showers. Low 42-47. Wind N 5-15 MPH.

FRIDAY – VETERANS DAY: Mostly cloudy in the morning. Partly to mostly sunny in the afternoon. High 50-55. Wind NW 10-20 MPH gusting to 30 MPH.

FRIDAY NIGHT: Mostly clear. Low 30-35. Wind NW 10-20 MPH.

SATURDAY: Mostly sunny. High 50-55. Wind W 10-20 MPH with higher gusts.

SATURDAY NIGHT: Mostly clear. Low 35-40. Wind SW 5-15 MPH.

SUNDAY: Partly cloudy. High 55-60. Wind SW 5-15 MPH.

MONDAY: Partly sunny. Low 44. High 64.

TUESDAY: Partly sunny. PM showers. Low 47. High 65.

WEDNESDAY: Mostly cloudy. AM showers. Low 41. High 58.

24 thoughts on “Thursday PM Forecast Update”

    1. The pattern is stable and repeating at the moment. Signs of a sightly weaker SE ridge has been showing up in the Euro the past several runs. Something to watch. I do think that we may need to cook up a tropical cyclone in the western North Pacific, recurve it, and turn it into a monster extratropical cyclone, to be a catalyst in changing the large scale pattern in North America. It’s November 10. Look for this to happen sometime in the next 20 days. BTW, there are no cyclones in the NW Pac at this time nor are any expected in the next 48 hours. 😉

      1. TK, what do you think about mid-December for the regime change? I am starting to feel more that there is going to be a delay.

        1. One could make a case for this. For now I’m holding onto the last week of November. What may end up happening here is we start getting cold shots, for now as they have been (very brief), then slightly longer lasting, then a more solid below normal temp pattern. It remains unclear the exact timing. But I’ve seen before that these switches can come nearly instantly, without much warning on the models.

          1. But I’ve seen before that these switches can come nearly instantly, without much warning on the models.

            Amen to that. And I’ve seen it come anywhere
            from late November to early January.

            I’m betting you will be correct.

  2. I guess I survived the seminar.

    I knew the 12Z GFS would not have that storm feature. Not only that, all the way to the end of the run at 384 hours, the cold air remains to the North and does not get in here. That is 16 days or our until 11/26!

    http://mag.ncep.noaa.gov/NCOMAGWEB/appcontroller?prevPage=Model&MainPage=index&image=&page=Param&cycle=11%2F10%2F2011+12UTC&rname=SFC-LAYER+PARMS&pname=1000_500_thick&pdesc=&model=GFS&area=NAMER&cat=MODEL+GUIDANCE&fcast=384&areaDesc=North+America+-+US+Canada+and+northern+Mexico&prevArea=NAMER&currKey=model&returnToModel=&imageSize=M

    So the GFS keeps hinting and teasing, but NEVER delivers.

    1. As TK noted above, instant switches can occur without much warning from the models. I’m sure the GFS is on the top of that list.
      Just have to wait and see how things evolve.

  3. Nice to have the day over isn’t it, Old Salty?

    I am sorry to keep harping on the foliage but I had to go out to an appointment this afternoon and was amazed at how vibrant the leaves remaining on trees are all of a sudden. Even the japanese maple in our backyard is now a lovely deep red with all of its leaves still intact.

      1. Yes, we shall see. It has to happen sooner or later. It nearly always does, except for that rare year where we virtually have no Winter.

  5. Its Nov 10th and I still have leaves on both trees, I have never seen this in the 14yrs of living in this house, the leaves r yellow and look like there about a week or 2 from all falling, but usually the tree looks like this in early to mid Oct, a month late!!!

  6. With heating costs so high I would not mind a mild winter at all. That being said I see a blizzard on Thanksgiving for all of New England. I can’t ignore my tea leaves or the crick in my leg can I? Happy Marine Corps Birthday and Veterans Day!

  7. HI Guys- the leaves are falling more and more everyday. My front trees at home getting realy bare. In Boston at work trust me they are dropping fast. I was removing leaves the last two days at work. For those who have full trees I will say they will be bare soon.

  8. My goodness. The GFS has no idea whatsoever how to handle the current weather pattern and its depiction of the upcoming days. No idea.

    If it keeps this up it may win a prize for best fiction of 2011.

      1. That’s ok, give it a run or 2 and there will be too much troughing in the same place. 😉

  9. Briefly got the south wind back this evening and almost a dew point near 60F. Ready for some invigorating cool, dry air tomorrow !

  10. Happy Veterans Day and thank you to all the people who currently are serving or have served for our country!!!
    A little on the windy side today but a great weekend to get out and do stuff. So far November has been great considering it is the cloudiest month of the year.

  11. TK, other met types: I could use your thinking about travelling south on 95 all the way to FLA. The travel days for my friends are Sunday through Tuesday.

Comments are closed.