30 thoughts on “Friday October 23 2020 Forecast (7:06AM)”

1. Thanks Tk have a nice day everyone.

2. Thanks, TK.

3. Thanks TK !

4. Good morning and thank you TK.

   I must say, I enjoy your writing style for your discussion. It is excellent. Thank you.

   1. Thank you JP Dave. I’m looking forward to your winter weather musings as we get into the season. 😉

5. Thanks TK.

   I heard on the radio news this morning that “snow days” will be a thing of the past. Superintendents will make the decision as to whether to have remote learning or no classes at all for that day or day(s).

   1. That’s stupid. If I am ever lucky to have a family and there is snow that warrants a snow day I’ll write a note saying the kids were sick. Schools have taken up to much time as they have successfully have done with summer work and tend to give projects over vacations even X-mas break. Weekends are not real breaks either just a break from seeing the teacher

      1. I don’t know if illness is an excuse not to do remote learning which is done “at home”. I assume students can do remote learning in their pajamas if they wish, so long as they pay attention to their teacher (instead of the snowfall) and complete their assignments on time.

         Maybe teachers here can elaborate?

         1. You’re asking a kid NOT to pay attention to the falling snow????? Any day it snowed while I was in school, I learned NOTHING as I was ALWAYS looking out the window. Always! of course when I wasn’t looking out the window, I was looking at the clock trying to make it advance to dismissal time!

            1. During snow days and sometimes the day after ( thanks my Dad ) we would go skiing. It was awesome. If it was online learning, I probably would sign on and turn off the camera and listen but be skiing

               TK ignore the last comment I used the wrong email.

               1. Noted. No worries. 🙂

6. Thanks TK.

7. GFS is up to its old tricks again. Some Winter for part of the region!

   https://m3.pivotalweather.com/maps/models/gfs/2020102312/168/prateptype_cat.us_ne.png

   It has the accumulations appropriately far enough inland, so who knows.

   https://m3.pivotalweather.com/maps/models/gfs/2020102312/180/snku_acc.us_ne.png

   1. Looks a lot like yesterday’s 18z run, only with the snow line a bit farther southeast. Ironic that 10/30 is the anniversary of that October 2011 snowstorm which dumped a widespread 6-12″ across much of CT and west/central MA.

      1. That it is. 🙂

         GFS temp forecast is a bit too cold late Oct / early Nov but it forecasts some daytime highs around 40 for a few days. That may actually be the case in some of the hilly sections with one or two of those cold shots in that series I’ve been eyeing. But I’m more inclined to believe these will be accompanied more by cold advection type rain and snow showers versus something like the GFS showed yesterday at 18z and today as 12z. However, we must apply the “model suckage” caveat, which we will be doing until probably sometime in the spring to early summer of 2021, or until air traffic is fully back to where it was pre-pandemic.

         1. Pre-pandemic levels not likely until 2022. I heard no vaccine until April 2021 at the earliest. Maybe even not until early summer.

            We are in this pandemic for the long haul, unfortunately. 🙁

            1. Didn’t they approve one last night & no news talking about it

               1. Not yet.

                  Anyway the whole relationship between that and the model performance is just something we deal with and adjust as we go along. I’ve been using my A.M.E. forecast method in high gear and it’s been working out for the most part. I’ll just keep doing that.

                  1. A.M.E.??? Is that a model blend?

                     1. Anticipated Model Error

                     2. Thanks JMA

                     3. I guess you could say it is a model blend of sorts, but yes, what JMA said. It’s really not vastly different than any meteorologist uses when looking at guidance. As I say, regarding guidance, it’s just as important to know what not to believe than what you feel is accurate.

                        I take it a step beyond that in my own forecasting in that I have been watching each model’s overall performance in all different set-ups, and from observing what they do poorly I’ve created a little mental notebook of places that I think the guidance will be in error, and then approximate what I feel is the correct solution based on what I know. Every situation is a little different, but over time, general trends emerge.

               2. that was fake.

                  1. The medicine . I swear it was on the radio last night saying breaking news the stuff the president took just got FDA approval. Was it fake ??? You know I would have thought that would have been all over the news & I saw nothing .

8. Just got back into the city it’s a Mild night

9. Brown to reunite with Brady!!! Oh boy !!!?

10. Overnights are tough especially being up now over 24 hours & mostly all of it at work .

    1. Tell me about it 😉 just wrapping up my night here. Definitely a different kind of lifestyle.

       1. My doctor thinks working overnights was what triggered my autoimmune disease in the 1990s.

11. New weather post…

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