Wednesday October 28 2020 Forecast (7:48AM)

73 Comments

DAYS 1-5 (OCTOBER 28 – NOVEMBER 1)

Discussion…

In the latest “the models really suck” example, we have some light rain around the region this morning from a disturbance that was basically missed inside 36 hours by a lot of short range guidance and that I had to correct my forecast for yesterday. Not that the rain is a bad thing, any drops of rain we get we’ll take, although this particular episode is basically negligible as far as drought relief goes. At least we have a shot at something a tiny bit more beneficial occurring before this week is over. The focus has been misguided on this upcoming system, born of a combination of energy coming from the southwest and the moisture from a Gulf of Mexico tropical system. It’ll be rather fast-moving, and suppressed a bit further south than guidance had been showing, and while that will allow some beneficial rainfall, it will probably end up coming in at under 1 inch for most areas. But what about the snow?!?! Snow in October, for one thing, is not totally unusual. Having significant measurable snow outside of the mountains is far less common than seeing flakes that amount to nothing or minor accumulation. This event coming up will fall into the latter category for the WHW forecast area. But what you will be impacted by far more than any snowflakes that fall is the stinging chilly breeze that will be hitting you in the face if you’re outside on Friday afternoon and evening, delivering a modified piece of a very cold air mass that has been plaguing much of western and central Canada and the western US, setting records all over the place and even causing a very early season ice storm pretty far to the south in the US Plains States. The good news here is we won’t see any ice storms, but we may see some black ice on Friday night as the temperature drops below freezing. Any wet ground or puddles left behind will likely freeze up, so with the area not being used to this, it’s something to keep in mind if you are heading out. All it takes is one small patch of ice under one foot to result in a butt landing, or worse. So use caution. In addition, basically anybody who has escaped a frost/freeze up to this point will see it happen finally on Friday night / Saturday morning as the temperature falls below freezing basically everywhere and into the 20s in many areas, thus ending the growing season once and for all. Onto the weekend we go next. Saturday, Halloween, a full moon (the second one of the month), and we’ll have high pressure sitting over us with dry, tranquil, but cold weather. Any towns/cities that will be having trick or treating Saturday evening will be doing so under a clear sky, a bright rising moon, temperatures in the 30s, but light wind. High pressure moves offshore by Sunday and warm front goes by the the morning before a cold front approaches the region from the west later in the day. This results in a milder but breezy, cloudier day, along with the risk for some rain shower activity.

Details…

TODAY: Cloudy. Periods of light rain this morning. Highs 50-57. Wind E under 10 MPH shifting to S.

TONIGHT: Variably cloudy. Lows 41-48. Wind S under 10 MPH shifting to W.

THURSDAY: Cloudy. Rain arriving southwest to northeast during the afternoon. Highs 46-53. Wind W under 10 MPH shifting to N.

THURSDAY NIGHT: Overcast. Periods of rain, may mix or turn to snow southwestern NH and north central MA overnight. Lows 34-41. Wind NE 5-15 MPH, higher gusts especially in coastal areas.

FRIDAY: Overcast morning with rain except mix/snow likely especially northwest of I-95 with minor accumulation favoring higher elevations of north central MA and southern NH (coating to 2 inches maximum). Mostl cloudy afternoon with a passing rain or snow shower possible. Highs 38-45. Wind NE shifting to NW increasing to 10-20 MPH with higher gusts.

FRIDAY NIGHT: Clearing. Lows 21-28 except around 30 urban centers. Wind NW diminishing to under 10 MPH.

SATURDAY: Sunny. Highs 42-49. Wind N 5-15 MPH.

SATURDAY NIGHT: Clear evening. Increasing clouds overnight. Lows 28-35 evening then a slow temperature rise overnight. Wind variable under 10 MPH evening becoming S up to 10 MPH overnight.

SUNDAY: Mostly cloudy. Chance of rain showers, especially in the afternoon. Highs 52-59. Wind S 5-15 MPH.

DAYS 6-10 (NOVEMBER 2-6)

A strong cold air delivery November 2 with wind and maybe a passing snow shower early and again later at night. Dry, chilly November 3 after a brief snow shower risk early. Warm front may produce some light rain November 4 with milder air moving in. Dry, briefly cooler November 5 before high pressure shifts south of the region with a stronger warm up but still dry weather November 6.

DAYS 11-15 (NOVEMBER 7-11)

Potential rain showers with a cold front November 7, then a shot of dry/cold air November 8-9 before moderating temperatures and still mainly dry later in the period.

73 thoughts on “Wednesday October 28 2020 Forecast (7:48AM)”

  4. I wuz promised a blizzid on the facebooks. I had need to return all this bread and milk I got. I’m gunna cry into my dunkies about this.

  9. Btw, I would be remiss in NOT pointing out that
    Tom had indicated a few days ago that this Thursday/Friday system could be suppressed. Great call Tom!

      1. Oh without a doubt. Random thought: Channel 7 in all my years putting these together (over a decade) seems to always be the most on the money in advance.

  13. I hope the folks on the Gulf coast took Zeta seriously. The right front quadrant is going to be significant. Intensifying and unless the near shore waters have really cooled, I think this is going to intensify right to landfall. No real shear to speak of. Hope it’s not at 110-115 mph by landfall this evening.

    1. My principal’s family lives in Denham Springs, LA which is a suburb of Baton Rouge. He tells me that they are having “hurricane fatigue” (in addition to everything else) this fall with the amount of storm and storm prep that have had to do.

      1. My brother lives in Lafayette, LA, about 1/2 way between
        New Orleans and Lake Charles. Other than losing power
        in each of the previous hurricanes, he was unscathed.

  16. Thanks TK.

    Had 0.30″ in the rain gauge when I left the house this AM and still raining. Up to about 3.5″ on the month. Should finally end up with an above normal month for precip after tomorrow – first in awhile. Not a drought buster but a stabilizer at least.

  17. Let us not lose sight that Zeta will be bringing more beneficial rains. 1-1.5”

    Hopefully, most of the colors on the current Drought Map will be gone altogether next week this time.

  20. UKMET is showing up to 2 inches for higher elevations of interior SNE. Only possible dustings west of I95.

      1. 🙂 🙂 🙂

        It seems to me that the models were performing better
        a few years ago. Is this due to the so-called upgrades
        that likely made the models perform more poorly?

        They can’t leave well enough alone can they?

        1. In some cases, upgrades were partial failures. In many cases, it’s lack of initialization data as a result of restricted air travel.

    1. I suspect 2021 will still have many postponements/cancellations of public events. Back to normal not until early-mid 2022.

  26. 3 out of 4 days, terrible forecasts by yours truly. Can you say SLUMP?

    Sunday, I forecast sun/clouds, it was basically overcast.
    Monday (for today) I forecast partly sunny. It’s not partly sunny.
    Today (for today) I forecast wet weather this morning and a cloudy afternoon. Yeah, it’s still cloudy, but it’s also still wet. 😛
    Well, at least I know it won’t last forever……………..

    1. Not that I wish failure upon anyone but…..

      Let’s keep this anomalous streak going and all wake up to 6″ of snow Friday AM!

    1. and with borderline SSTS but I feel that its more to do with some of the atmospheric conditions enhancing the wind.

  31. Zeta is making landfall with the classic “halficane” appearance typical of many Gulf Coast landfalling storms, especially late in the season. It won’t be too impactful on the whole especially given its speed, but certainly some locally significant impacts close to the landfall point. There are some aspects of this storm that are in or close to “unprecedented” territory for the season, with anomalously warm Gulf of Mexico waters contributing, as well as a favorable baroclinic interaction.

  34. Current timing brings a core of a pretty cold air mass right across this area on November 3. Some places may never reach 40 that day.

      1. Maybe a pre-dawn snow shower if a trough has any moisture on it. But it will otherwise by a high pressure dominated Election Day. Last night, Harvey had overcast with a few snowflakes, so I’m not sure what he was thinking there, other than maybe a slower trough passage or I read into it too much. 🙂

  35. FYI, for anybody who uses my Hotmail account to email me, I’m having an issue that is basically “eating”most of the emails I try to send, and I am not 100% certain I am receiving all sent to me. Effective immediately, to reach my personal email, use topkatt88@gmail.com … If you would like to email WHW, use woodshillweather@gmail.com … It may take me a bit to be checking both of these every day but I will make a conscious effort to do so.

  38. 00z GFS now showing a juicier second wave as well with an uptick in snow totals, especially across CT and west/central MA…

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