DAYS 1-5 (OCTOBER 31 – NOVEMBER 4)

Discussion…

A rare sight greeted early risers today in a good portion of the WHW forecast area: snow covered landscape, much of it still foliated. We’re used to seeing this with some of the late foliage like oaks, or evergreen type trees, but it’s rare to see that much snow on trees with colorful leaves that haven’t dropped them yet, and that’s exactly what we had. I was fortunate enough to take a walk at a local pond this morning to witness some of this close-up, and photograph some of it (although poor planning meant that I not only ran out of storage space, but battery too, before the end of my walk – oops, about as good as my forecast was for yesterday’s storm, but that’s life!) … Now, as the sun warms the landscape enough today to rid the trees of the snow, and more leaves come down with that, we will only recover to the 40s as a chilly high pressure area moves overhead, but this is good news for any cities and towns holding trick or treating this evening, as winds will be light despite the chill. Last year, if you recall, it was very mild, but also quite windy, and showery in some locations. Tonight will have 2 distinctive parts to it. This evening, we’ll see quick radiational cooling especially where snow remains on the ground under a mostly clear sky with just some high clouds streaming in above, decorative for the rising full Halloween moon, a blue moon (the second full moon of the month, not actually blue), also known as the full Hunter’s moon. Our low temperatures will be reached before midnight. During the overnight hours, a southerly air flow will strengthen and we’ll not only have increasing high & mid level clouds with the a warm front coming toward the region but we’ll have lower clouds coming up via the waters just south of New England, and the temperature will rise gradually. Also, don’t forget, tonight is the night we turn the clocks back, ending Daylight Savings Time and going back to Standard Time, technically occurring at 2 a.m. Sunday morning. So remember to change any clocks that do not automatically adjust! You get the extra hour of sleep if you want it, but our sunset will also occur before 5 p.m. after today onward into early 2021. Back to the weather… A disturbance moving north northeastward may bring a few rain showers to southeastern MA around dawn to about mid morning on Sunday, but the majority of Sunday morning and the first half of the afternoon will just feature a lot of clouds but not really any rainfall. Later in the day though, as a strong cold front approaches from the west, there should be a decent swath of showers, and even the risk of some embedded thunder, moving in from the west, that will cross the region during the evening before pushing offshore overnight. This will introduce a much colder air mass on Monday, of arctic origin although somewhat modified. Nevertheless, Monday is going to be a windy and cold day with some sun but also a fair amount of passing clouds, and some of these clouds may produce a rain or snow shower. Later Monday night into the early hours of Tuesday (to around dawn), another disturbance will move through the area from northwest to southeast, producing a few snow showers, and maybe even a brief snow squall. This will reinforce our cold air for Election Day Tuesday. If you have doing in-person voting, expect a breezy, bright, but chilly day with temperatures in the 30s much of the time (peaking in the lower 40s for some areas). There will, even be some wind chill making it feel colder. Tuesday night will be a cold one with high pressure moving overhead, but Wednesday, after a cold start, we’ll see a nice temperature recovery as the high center shifts to the southeast and a west to southwest wind develops, bringing air from a milder source region into our area.

Details…

TODAY: 100% sunshine. Highs 42-49. Wind variable up to 10 MPH.

THIS EVENING (SUNSET TO ABOUT MIDNIGHT): Mostly clear to partly cloudy. Lows 28-35. Wind S under 10 MPH.

TONIGHT (OVERNIGHT): Partly to mostly cloudy. Temperature rising through the 30s. Wind S 5-15 MPH.

SUNDAY: Mostly cloudy. Chance of rain showers southeastern MA and RI until about mid morning. Numerous rain showers arriving west to east by late in the day. Highs 51-58. Wind S 5-15 MPH.

SUNDAY EVENING (THROUGH MIDNIGHT): Cloudy with numerous rain showers and a slight chance of thunderstorms. Temperatures in the 50s. Wind S 5-15 MPH, higher gusts.

SUNDAY OVERNIGHT: Breaking clouds. Temperatures falling to near 40. Wind W 5-15 MPH, higher gusts.

MONDAY: Variably cloudy. Passing rain or snow showers. Temperatures steady around 40. Wind W 10-20 MPH, higher gusts.

MONDAY NIGHT: Variably cloudy. Passing snow showers. Slight chance of a snow squall. Lows 27-34. Wind NW 10-20 MPH, higher gusts.

TUESDAY: Variably cloudy with a risk of a passing snow shower early morning, then mostly sunny. Highs 37-44. Wind NW 10-20 MPH, higher gusts, diminishing during the afternoon.

TUESDAY NIGHT: Clear. Lows 18-25 except 25-32 immediate coast and urban areas. Wind calm.

WEDNESDAY: Sunny. Highs 50-57. Wind W to SW 5-15 MPH.

DAYS 6-10 (NOVEMBER 5-9)

This period looks mainly dry, but temperatures are going to be dependent on wind direction and whether high pressure to the south of New England or in eastern Canada has a stronger influence. Currently I expect us to be influenced by high pressure to the south with above normal temperatures November 5-7, then high pressure from Canada with a cooler November 8-9.

DAYS 11-15 (NOVEMBER 10-14)

Lower confidence in what happens during this period. Looks like a brief warm up, rain showers, then a chill-down through Veterans Day, a possible wave of low pressure with rain/mix/snow threat around November 12-13, then dry weather to end the period. A lot of uncertainty here so don’t put too much stock in this outlook right now.