Sunday November 22 2020 Forecast (8:18AM)

45 Comments

DAYS 1-5 (NOVEMBER 22-26)

Discussion…

High pressure centered north of New England will slide off to the east and south as so many have done since the summer. But only now since it’s November, instead of a pleasant ocean breeze taking the edge off summer heat, we’ll have a cool and increasingly raw east wind today with a lot of low level clouds coming from the ocean and spreading inland, while above that high and mid level clouds advance ahead of an approaching warm front. While the relatively mild air of the previous two days will be gone, we will still stay dry through the daylight hours today, but the aforementioned warm front will be the trigger for some rainfall tonight. This front, as previously discussed, may never completely make it all the way through the region before a cold front from the west comes across the area around the middle of the day Monday as low pressure tracks eastward to our north. This set-up is one for a wide spread in temperature across the region as the wettest weather is taking place during Monday morning, after which a stronger westerly wind will arrive and we’ll dry out from west to east, and all areas will start a quick drop in temperature as a cold air mass arrives from Canada Monday night as it clears out, and Tuesday, which will be a windy, dry, bright, but below normal temperature day. But that will also be short-lived as the high pressure that delivers the cold will make a quick trip eastward and we’ll already be on its back side by Wednesday. But instead of a nice milder day, Wednesday will feature a lot of cloudiness as we get an increase in moisture ahead of the next low pressure system, set to bring wet weather to the region by Wednesday night and into Thanksgiving. With Thanksgiving at day 5, there’s still some uncertainty on how quickly that system gets out of here. Some guidance has taken it quickly out of the region early in the day for clearing, while other guidance keeps it around. However, the guidance that had been displaying the faster timing is showing me signs of finding the trough that would at least keep cloudiness in the region for the balance of the day even if we saw the wet weather end, so at this time I am leaning toward just an overcast day with greatest rain chances in the morning.

Details…

TODAY: Mostly cloudy eastern areas with partial sun mostly interior MA, RI, eastern CT, and southwestern NH before all areas are cloudy by afternoon. Highs 45-52. Wind E 5-15 MPH.

TONIGHT: Cloudy. Periods of rain and drizzle. Areas of fog. Lows 42-49. Wind E to SE 5-15 MPH.

MONDAY: Cloudy with rain showers likely through early afternoon. Areas of fog and drizzle in the morning mainly Merrimack Valley into southern NH. Breaking clouds later in the day. Highs 48-55, coolest southern NH and northeastern MA. Wind SE 5-15 MPH in southern NH and northeastern MA, SW 5-15 MPH elsewhere, shifting to W and increasing to 10-20 MPH with higher gusts all areas by late day.

MONDAY NIGHT: Partly cloudy. Lows 27-34. Wind NW 10-20 MPH and gusty.

TUESDAY: Mostly sunny. Highs 37-44. Wind NW 10-20 MPH and gusty.

TUESDAY NIGHT: Clear. Lows 20-27. Wind N under 10 MPH.

WEDNESDAY: Early sun, then becoming cloudy. Highs 46-53. Wind SE 5-15 MPH.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT: Cloudy. Rain arriving late evening or overnight. Temperatures steady 46-53. Wind SE to S 5-15 MPH.

THURSDAY (THANKSGIVING): Cloudy. Rain likely in the morning. Chance of a few lingering showers or some drizzle in the afternoon. Temperatures steady 46-53. Wind SE to E 5-15 MPH.

DAYS 6-10 (NOVEMBER 27 – DECEMBER 1)

Currently expecting mostly dry and milder weather for November 27 & 28 as high pressure moves in but without tapping cold air from Canada. Next low pressure area may bring wet weather to the area in the November 29-30 time frame but the exact timing of this is highly uncertain. Drier/colder weather is possible as December arrives to end this period.

DAYS 11-15 (DECEMBER 2-6)

Highly uncertain outlook with many questions to be answered about the pattern’s evolution, but the scenario I feel is most likely looking at it this far in advance is for dry but seasonably chilly weather early in the period, briefly milder and still dry mid period, and a possible flip to colder with a storm threat at the end of the period, although we may be very near a boundary of warmth to the south with much colder air to the north, so that would set-up a vast range of how the weather could turn out here.

45 thoughts on “Sunday November 22 2020 Forecast (8:18AM)”

  1. I haven’t forgotten about the winter forecast. My original target date was November 20. With luck, it will be done TODAY. I’ve been writing it in pieces over the last week or so as I do other things in between, alot of those outside.

    Also a reminder if people want to do the snowfall guesses for the blog, put that on the contest page by November 30. We get a little cheat this year with the early snow in October. Don’t forget to factor that in! 😉

    1. I will factor that October snow in with using “subtraction” as opposed to addition. Not to be fooled this time. 😉

      1. Since there is no real correlation between October snow and winter snow, do what you have to, but it’s risky. The last 2 “significant” October events in the Northeast were followed by low snow. They have not all been like that. It’s literally 50/50.

    1. Yes we can use those.

      Nobody has to do all of them, but those should be the ones we keep track of.

  5. Thanks TK
    BDL has 2.0 inches of snow from October 30th. The last time BDL recorded October snowfall winter 2016-2017 had above normal snowfall. I am hoping this will happen this time but from everything I am reading I don’t see that happening.

  6. Thanks, TK…
    Happy Sunday, my WHW friends!

    It’s nice to be back after two weeks of end-of-the-term work with report cards grades due on last Friday. With all of the hybrid learning and teaching this school year, this has been, by far, the most difficult stretch of my 38 years of teaching. It just never ends.

    I have given myself the weekend off from school work and I only have two days of in-person teaching this week before the Thanksgiving break.

    TK, to answer your question from about two weeks ago, no, I had not seen The Peanuts’ Thanksgiving special, but I did watch it on You Tube after your suggestion. It was cool and pretty accurate.

    Christmas snows: I remember a 1974 White Christmas. I had watched Bruce Schwoegler at 11 pm on Christmas Eve and he said that there was no chance of a white Christmas. I wake up on Christmas morning and there’s 3-4″ of snow on the ground!

    Early December snows: December 9, 2005 was the most intense weather (not just snow) I have ever experienced.

    Go Pats!

    1. CF…Check out yesterday’s blog for my remembrance of that 1974 Christmas Day snow. Probably not particularly interesting per se but very nostalgic for me, personally. That snow surprised everyone, mets included. 🙂

      1. My brother David has a distinctive memory about that one…

        He woke up on Christmas morning with WBCN-FM on the radio, and Charles Laquidara who was working that morning shift told everybody to get up and look out the window for a surprise. 😛 Yes, it was a surprise snow that was not predicted by any of the media at the time.

    2. Captain, I am so happy for you and all the teachers out there that the schedule is bringing us to the Thanksgiving Break, the Holiday Break and the February Break over the next 2 and 1/2 months.

      I hope these breaks in the coming weeks will give you and all educators a much, much deserved break and a chance to get away from the school year for a bit.

      1. All you teachers everywhere deserve much credit during these many trying months! Unfortunately, there will be still more to come, at least through spring.

        Tom, I hope you will be able to return to class (in person for all) next fall! 🙂

  7. TK – I know you were a very little kid back in 1974 but do you know what the specific “dynamics” were for that event?

    Was it one of those typical rain events that changed to snow much sooner than expected similar to this recent October event? Or was it an unexpected straight snow from the beginning?

    1. Not TK, but I was not a little kid in 1974. I was working and married with a young daughter at the time.

      IF this is the same system I think it was, there were some unusual circumstances. It had been snowless leading up to Christmas and there had been NO indications of even the remotest prospects for any snow whatsoever.

      I remember watching a weather and cannot remember who it was talking about a little system coming on shore from the pacific in Southern California about 1 1/2 days prior to Christmas. The Met said this thing would rocket ENE all the
      way across the country and give us a White Christmas.
      And it did. Not a big system, but enough to deliver a general
      4-6 inches.

      Obviously it was very fast jet and not super amplified, but
      there was enough lift and support for that snow.

      I am hoping that TK or others can verify that I have remembered the correct system.

      1. JPD, Can you recall at least if it was a local or national met? Whoever it was, did a good job of forecasting, given the technology at the time, with a bit of luck probably. 😉

    2. I don’t know, but I’ll have to pull some old weather maps and see what I can find there…

  9. Let me take a stab at the 1974 event based on JPD’s memory. A wild guess on my part, at best.

    From Southern California the system travelled along the southern tier then “bombed out” off the Carolinas but sped quickly to our south so that we weren’t clobbered? If I recall, the snow tapered around mid-late afternoon around here? Sooooo many eons ago.

    1. Not that I remember Philip. It was a minor to moderate system the whole way. Never blew up. Again, IF this was the event
      I think it was.

  10. Getting dark here so that some streetlights are now on. Sunset still two hours away. Hope it’s not rain approaching already.

    1. Thicker mid level clouds, as discussed in my post above. With a low sun angle this is going to make for a significant shadow. The rain holds off until later tonight, as noted above.

      1. That’s where I expected it to be. The rain here holds off, other than a few stray drops that make it through the dry layer.

  11. The divergence between the 12z GFS & ECMWF operational runs is astounding today. The timing is so different between the 2 runs, 2 forecasters each following the models only would have extremely different 10-day forecasts. Ensembles should help a little bit. I just looked at the early hours of December 1 for a simple cold front position and the models are about 500 miles apart. That’s a big deal. Once again I think it’s a case of GFS = too fast and ECMWF = too slow.

  12. I have an old New England Weather book at home that mentions “dark days” when streetlights come on in the middle of the day. I guess today is one of those days.

    Thanks again TK for the explanation above.

  13. I thought the answers to this quiz were funny so I am posting it for no other reason than that.

    What happens when a cold front and a warm front collide?

    A. When a warm and cold front collide the hot air pushes the cold air up.
    B. Usually a blizzard happens.
    C. There is a horrible accident with many injuries and lawsuits filed.
    D. They cause cyclones across the country.
    E. Nothing happens.
    F. When a warm and cold front collide the dense heavy cold air pushes the lighter warm air up. As the warm air rises the moisture condenses, clouds and storms follow.

    1. I don’t like any of the answers.
      It is called an Occlusion as far as I know. The closest answer
      is F and it is piss-poor in my opinion.
      Just my thoughts. 🙂

  14. TK – would reiterate your point, the model divergence beyond day 7 is incredible. Maybe it’s just because for the past few weeks the consistency around days 10-15 has generally been better than normal. But wow are those days gone.

    As I alluded to yesterday, the period from 11/30-12/10 looks “interesting” to me. The strong +PNA catches my eye. But I honestly have no idea how it will translate to our weather. My brain says colder and stormier, my gut says more warmth, just via a different pattern. Either way I’m looking forward to watching the evolution!

  15. There is an odd glow in the sky to the southeast. The sun set well before I took photo and it is still there. All I can think of is the moon but I have never seen this before here

    Thoughts? It is more widespread than the photo shows

    https://imgur.com/a/CX7ULA3

    1. Looks far too widespread to be the moon, which is up, but only about 1/2 (1st quarter), and should not be showing that brightly through clouds with that much luminescence. My guess is that it’s reflection of the lights of Woonsocket RI, but if you said you have not seen it there before that would cast significant doubt on that theory…

      1. Thanks TK. We think it is the grow lights at the new cultivate facility in Uxbridge. It is off now and apparently they turn them off early night. Others mentioned it on FB. It is definitely new. There was a brush fire not far away but I think it was in the wrong direction

      1. They don’t get many tropical cyclones there! The ocean basin does, but it’s rare that the steering winds would bring it there and especially one that strong. Granted we “see” these events better, and I’m sure there have been others in past decades that have been missed, or under-estimated, but surely this doesn’t happen very often there.

  17. I already put these on the contest page, but these are my guesses for seasonal snowfall for 2020-2021.

    Here are my guesses for 2020-2021 total snowfall…
    Boston MA: 46.8
    Worcester MA: 60.1
    Providence RI: 40.4
    Hartford CT: 45.5
    Concord NH: 69.8

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