DAYS 1-5 (DECEMBER 2-6)
The big storm system that brought our wind & rain Monday and our continued windy weather yesterday will still have somewhat of a hold on the region in the form of a gusty breeze and passing clouds during today. Our air, a modified polar air mass indirectly from Canada via the Midwest, will feel more typical for early December. As a low pressure trough makes its way eastward, there will be an area of snow showers from the Great Lakes across New York, extending into the Berkshires, and a few of these, in the form of very light rain and/or snow showers, may sneak eastward far enough to survive into the WHW forecast area during the afternoon & early evening. That disturbance will be long gone by Thursday, which will be the “pick of the week” in terms of nice weather – sunshine, not too breezy, not too cold. And then things change. I’ve been trying to work out the timing of the threat of unsettled weather later this week for some time, and it still appears we’ll see the return of clouds and a rain shower threat Friday as a cold front moves into the region. The dilemma has been the weekend – would a storm develop and move in to impact Saturday, both days, Sunday, or would no storm impact the region at all? The answer seems to be revealing itself with gradual consensus developing between various model guidance to show that low pressure won’t waste that much time getting formed on the trailing portion of the front that passes through here, to our southwest, and then heads in this direction for the weekend. What still isn’t clear is the timing. The most likely scenario at this time seems to be a rain event beginning sometime Saturday, and ending, mostly as a mix or even snow for parts of the region during Sunday, pending the arrival of colder air. So as you see, there are still details to work out as we get closer.
TODAY: Sun and passing clouds. Chance of a brief light shower of rain or snow, favoring the hills well west and northwest of Boston later in the day. Highs 40-47. Wind SW to W 10-20 MPH with higher gusts.
TONIGHT: Partly cloudy with a brief sprinkle of rain or flurry of snow possible early, then clearing. Lows 28-35. Wind W 5-15 MPH.
THURSDAY: Mostly sunny. Highs 45-52. Wind W to SW 5-15 MPH.
THURSDAY NIGHT: Increasing clouds. Lows 35-42. Wind SW 5-15 MPH.
FRIDAY: Mostly cloudy. Chance of rain showers. Highs 45-52. Wind SW 5-15 MPH shifting to W.
FRIDAY NIGHT: Mostly cloudy. Lows 38-45. Wind variable under 10 MPH.
SATURDAY: Mostly cloudy. Chance of rain. Highs 45-52. Wind variable 5-15 MPH, higher gusts possible.
SATURDAY NIGHT: Cloudy. Chance of rain. Lows 35-42. Wind variable to NE 10-20 MPH, higher gusts possible.
SUNDAY: Cloudy with a chance of rain/mix/snow morning. Variably cloudy with a chance of mix/snow showers afternoon. Highs 38-45 then falling. Wind N to NW 15-25 MPH, higher gusts possible.
DAYS 6-10 (DECEMBER 7-11)
With the storm threat focus shifting to the weekend, the early portion of next week looks mostly dry and seasonably cold at this time, but we still may have to keep an eye on potential offshore low pressure. With low confidence I say that the next threat of precipitation is around December 10 from a system tracking west to east along the boundary of cold to our north and warmer air to our south.
DAYS 11-15 (DECEMBER 12-16)
Signal for another disturbance bringing a precipitation threat in the December 12-13 window followed by drier but colder weather. Again a low confidence forecast at this time.