Thursday January 28 2021 Forecast (7:40AM)

135 Comments

DAYS 1-5 (JANUARY 28- FEBRUARY 1)

We will continue to be impacted by the evolution of a large ocean storm to the south and east of New England through Friday, first causing a couple more episodes of snow showers then helping to pull in the coldest air of the season Friday into the start of the weekend, as previously discussed. Also as previously discussed we will see an easing of the cold late in the weekend and a storm threat for early next week. It’s obviously still too early for details on that threat but by the end of this forecast period (Monday February 1) we’ll be awaiting the arrival of that system, which will be off the Mid Atlantic Coast by then, having redeveloped from a system moving into the Ohio Valley. There will be lots to talk about over the coming days…

TODAY: Mostly cloudy with snow showers likely in the morning, especially from southeastern NH through eastern MA, accumulating up to 1/2 inch in spots but local accumulation of up to an inch or two possible Cape Ann and MA South Shore. Partly sunny with scattered snow showers favoring Cape Cod during the afternoon. Highs 28-35. Wind NE to N increasing to 10-20 MPH with higher gusts late in the day.

TONIGHT: Partly cloudy with snow showers Cape Cod. Clear elsewhere. Lows 8-15. Wind N 15-25 MPH, higher gusts especially eastern coastal areas. Wind chill below zero at times.

FRIDAY: Mostly sunny to partly cloudy with most clouds eastern MA coastal areas especially Cape Cod. Additional snow showers possible mainly Cape Cod but brief snow showers/squalls possible from north to south in southeastern NH and eastern MA midday or afternoon, accumulation of a coating to 1 inch with locally up to 2 inches possible. Highs 15-22. Wind N 15-25 MPH, higher gusts. Wind chill near zero at times.

FRIDAY NIGHT: Clear. Lows 6-13. Wind NW 10-20 MPH, higher gusts. Wind chills below zero.

SATURDAY: Sunny. Highs 20-27. Wind NW 5-15 MPH, higher gusts. Wind chills near to below 10 at times.

SATURDAY NIGHT: Clear. Lows 0-7 except 8-15 urban centers. Wind NW 5-15 MPH, diminishing.

SUNDAY: Mostly sunny. Highs 26-33. Wind variable up to 10 MPH.

SUNDAY NIGHT: Increasing high clouds. Lows 15-22. Wind N up to 10 MPH.

MONDAY: Thickening overcast. Chance of snow by late-day. Highs 25-32. Wind NE 5-15 MPH.

DAYS 6-10 (FEBRUARY 2-6)

Storm likely to impact the region February 2 with precipitation type to be determined. Dry, colder February 3. A temperature moderation follows with the next threat of unsettled weather later in the period. This evolution will be the result of a weakening blocking pattern.

DAYS 11-15 (FEBRUARY 7-11)

Blocking pattern may remain somewhat in place but should be weaker along with more high pressure ridging in the US Southeast. A lot of uncertainty in our day to day weather as a result but we may be impacted by unsettled weather early and again late in the period.

135 thoughts on “Thursday January 28 2021 Forecast (7:40AM)”

  3. Good morning and thank you TK. Snowing nicely here at the moment. Good steady heavier light snow that is accumulating.
    At least 1/4 inch so far with perhaps a tad more than that.

    1. Keeping it snow “may” be the issue. Even TK says:
      Storm likely to impact the region February 2 with precipitation type to be determined

      As I said yesterday, the antecedent air mass will have warmed
      considerably over what was in place Friday and Saturday.
      We shall see.
      And not for nothing, but so far the set up does not impress me. Not yet anyway. At best, run of the mill snow storm, if all snow.

  9. JP you crack me up :). This storm chance has a huge opportunity to one for the biggest in several years if things line up correctly. Set up looks really good overall but hard to make it h til Saturday.
    Biggest issue will be temps near the coast as usual.

    1. Why? just because I don’t always agree. Look, I hope it turns out to be a monster, I truly do.

      Do you think that this looks impressive?

      https://maps1.pivotalweather.com/maps/models/ecmwf_full/2021012800/132/prateptype_cat_ecmwf.conus.png

      I want to see a tightly wound bomb. This looks like J. Wellington Wimpy to me.

      qpf looks decent, but distribution is whacked.

      https://www.pivotalweather.com/model.php?m=ecmwf_full&p=qpf_acc&rh=2021012800&fh=180&r=us_ne&dpdt=&mc=

      So it may produce ample QPF, but I want a storm.

      AND, precipitation type WILL be an issue.

      Just call it as I see it. NOT on the band wagon at this point.
      Subject to change, of course. 🙂

      1. I hear ya. The set up just looks really decent in comparison to the last two years. And let’s not forget that December system produced massive amounts with being a right wound Yo system.

        1. Oh, for sure. I understand that completely. I am just looking for a nice tightly would bomb. I’d happily take another
          foot of snow from a less than stellar system.

          And you are 100% correct. The December storm and perhaps the upcoming one, run circles around anything we have had for a few years now.

          In that respect, I hear you 100%.

    1. The only thing that has hurt me this Winter is the Bleeping Covid Pandemic and just a few political issues for which I won’t get into.

      And, if you haven’t figured it out yet, I am NEVER satisfied. It is a terrible personality trait that I just can’t shake.

      Here is my anthym:

      https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ituFNPXAaE8

  12. With the best real signal for snow since before Christmas, I would have expected to see this place lit up

  13. Snow has backed off just a bit, but still a very nice steady light snow falling. About a new inch of snow, perhaps a tad more.

    25 inches on the season.

  14. Just read a headline on popular Massachusetts news website that said Cape Cod to see up to 5 inches as Polar Vortex moves into Massachusetts. Ugh, how I wish that term was never coined….

    Speaking of the Cape, you want some really fun snow potential between now and Friday evening? Head to the outer Cape for some localized powder to pile up and blow around. There are at this time of year probably few places less populated in Massachusetts than the outer Cape, so it real impact is minimal, but it sure could be some fun snow to watch come in and out.

  15. I’m not even paying attention to the Mon/Tue threat until I see at least one kowabunga or some random numbers and symbols from jpdave.

  19. Feel like the flurries and light snow will just keep going. Radar shows it continually sort of pinwheeling off the ocean.

  20. My focus will be the mesoscale snow events and incoming cold for the next 36 hours, after which I’ll devote 90% of my forecasting energy to the storm threat for early in the week.

    As of right now, I can’t really say anything more than I wrote above in the blog discussion.

    It’s kind of common meteorological reasoning that if the storm gets here and if it’s all snow then it would probably be a big one, hence the type of statement you might hear somebody make on TV. That is a fair statement to make, but it is important that your audience understands what context to take that statement in.

    in the meantime, I have been weather geeking like crazy this morning watching the radar. 😀

    2. fun stuff, isn’t it? Almost looks like a meso low over us.
      I see some echoes moving northward, some southward and some in between., At times it has snowed pretty hard here, but mostly it has been steady light.

      1. There seems to be a break right over the city with action to the North moving NE and action to the South moving SW.
        Weird. Is this some sort of funky trough?

    3. Grest comment. If we have learned only one thing here, it is maybe follow more than three days out; but nothing more.

  25. I could be out to lunch, but I’d still be concerned about suppression over mixing for SNE early next week…

    Just a feeling, and that’s not to say it’ll happen, but IMO it’s a more likely failure mechanism than rain/mixing. A big winter storm is very much on the table.

    1. Thanks WxW. If it is going to be a biggie, then hopefully no rain/mixing. That would make things worse.

    3. LOL! Might be more realistic if the guy had a scowl on his face and was sticking his middle finger up at the monitor but nice effort!

  27. Thanks TK.

    Enjoy the snow out there today,. Sun is now peaking out here and we have had nothing more than a few flurries.

    Dave, I am up to 25″ on the season as well so you may surpass me after today.

    1. A nice band of snow has set up shop over us for the last hour or so. It’s gotten darker, too, after the sun made an appearance about two hours ago.

  28. Regarding Monday, I am not sold on a long duration event, at least one with an extended period of meaningful precipitation. Don’t like how most model solutions are sending warm air and a massive dry slot into all of SNE after the up front “thump” of heavy snow. High pressure to the north does not appear strong enough to (1) lock the cold air in and (2) keep the shield of heavy precip locked over us for an extended period of time.

    Granted there are still many solutions in play and I think we are still looking good for a potential 6″+ event across much of the area. But things would have to shake out perfectly to get us the “big one” and I’m not seeing that right now…

      1. No you are not. It’s not a nice tightly wound up storm like you said earlier. It’s got potential, but none of the model depictions thus far overly excite me.

    1. Crazy stuff. A few nights ago, Macs sister in law east of SF said they have an atmospheric River with heavy rains there and seven feet in the Sierras.

  30. Well, that 12z Euro run was a bit better. Keeps the precip going for an extended period of time with the initial surge of snow followed by a second wave of heavy snow across Eastern MA when the storm redevelops and strengthens near the benchmark.

    1. Two snow maximums….one from PHI-NYC and one across Eastern MA. Not liking the snow hole in CT but still good for about 10″ here.

        1. I’m ok I came back Wednesday instead of Tuesday . All ready into working longer then 8 hour shifts . Very , very kind of you too ask .

  33. Euro spitting out 10-15 inches in a large area and folks don’t think it’s a big storm? I feel like we have lost sense of what a big storm it. Not every storm is going to be 20-30 inches.

    1. I don’t have that sense at all. I have the sense that those posting here understand it is early and don’t get hopes up until the day is closer. Which of course is as it should be

    2. 10-15 inches is a nice dump of snow, but not necessarily a big storm, if you understand what I am saying. All depends upon one’s point of view.

      There is a difference between a big dump of snow and a big storm. 🙂 🙂 🙂

  34. Eric F Tweet.

    Next Mon-Tue still looking pretty locked in on a significant coastal storm. Consistent trend is your friend if looking for a snowstorm

  35. I thought the Euro looked great overall this far out. Slow moving and we know amounts are nothing we can really talk about yet. I look at overall qpf and so far a 1-2 inch range seems very likely.

    1. At over 3 days out, nothing is very likely yet.
      From experience, I will say that the confidence level (as noted by Eric there) is a little higher than it’s been, but I also see a handful of things that can “go wrong” too. Those are what we will factor in or eliminate over the next few days.

            1. I wanted to be but had to deal with a work crisis that will probably be going on for a while. 😉 Nothing bad, just time & energy consuming. 😛

      2. Actually, I would prefer a miss over a heavy snow to rain scenario with only marginal cold air in place.

        Best case would have the storm pass due east from the NC coast (or wherever) to keep whatever cold air is left.

      3. I am still seeing some upper air features that “could” possibly signal a suppressed system. I sure hope not. Time will tell.
        Models have been fairly consistent so far.

  37. Mark (Or anyone else ), Did you see this? I thought you might be interested.

    https://www.amazon.com/Man-Behind-Maps-Ben-Farrow/dp/1733875905/ref=sr_1_1?dchild=1&gclid=Cj0KCQiA3smABhCjARIsAKtrg6IoRo-8tyK8SbqyhfeEn1LV77dkujKoo917ltjDvgNBQxkJU56obvQaApWMEALw_wcB&hvadid=397335347480&hvdev=c&hvlocphy=9001992&hvnetw=g&hvqmt=e&hvrand=5618342716141940614&hvtargid=kwd-839219088399&hydadcr=20670_9705451&keywords=the+man+behind+the+maps&qid=1611867347&sr=8-1&tag=googhydr-20

    Or this link

    https://jamesniehues.com/pages/the-man-behind-the-map

    1. I have not seen that, looks like a really cool book! That would make a great Christmas or birthday gift for my son if it wasn’t so expensive!

  38. Winter storm watch up for Cape Cod tomorrow. Though it looks like it covers the whole Cape, its probably useful for the Outer Cape.

  39. Per obs, especially the DP´s have dropped. Add a 1F or 2 temp drop and a low afternoon sun angle and now the light snow is sticking to everything.

    If I look at the trees and snow-cover, we´ve received around an inch today, but in the last 15 minutes, a lot more surfaces have now taken on a thin covering.

  42. LOL! I’ll have to admit I have placed myself under a self-induced Extreme Hype Watch a few times in the past. I’m trying to be good this time though.

  44. A little bit of sad news to share today…

    My favorite uncle (Rick) passed away this morning at the age of 94. He had suffered a stroke in his sleep a few mornings ago but when he woke up he was simply unable to speak, but was not in any discomfort otherwise. They took him to the hospital and he slipped into a coma from which he did not emerge, and passed peacefully this morning. Rick was in great health for his age other than recent hip surgery. He was very sharp minded. If you met him just recently you’d have thought you were talking to a man of 75 (at oldest). Quick wit, funny, optimistic about everything, and always laughing. I always said that he was the guy I wanted to be like right to the end, whenever that may be. I try at least. 😉 .. Being able to drive still he, until recently, still made weekly visits to my mother – a Tuesday morning ritual. She will miss her brother greatly, and I will miss my uncle, but we take comfort in knowing he passed away peacefully after a long life.

    I didn’t get to see him too often in recent years as his visits usually took place when I was not around, but I did get one last visit with him when he made a safe visit to my mom back in November. I’m glad I got to talk to him in person, even from a distance. He always had questions about weather and was fascinated by it all. Rest in peace Uncle Rick! He’ll be with his loving wife Peggy again.

    10. Big prayers for you and your family. Rick sounds like he was an awesome guy. Bet he had a lot of tales for a life that long!

    12. I am so sorry to hear this TK. My condolences to you and your family.

      We had something very similar happen to my wife’s grandmother 8 years ago this week. When they are in such good health and mind it comes as an even bigger shock. I will keep your family in my prayers.

  48. Thank you everyone!

    Down to 16 degrees in Pittsfield MA & Albany NY as of 5PM. The arctic invasion commences…

    1. Keep in mind this is an op run still several days out, but the run itself shows what is a plausible scenario – one of many that are on the table. This could end up being kind of a squeeze play deal with both a warm-up & dry slot from the south while we see a sharper cut off to the north. A lot to work out still, so I wouldn’t even get too hooked on this particular run – but just one “could be”.

  52. Boy Harvey’s language this week . All eyes of course on early next week & if it comes close enough could be a classic !!

    1. They’ll end up milder than average, but not by that much. Never thought they’d torch there.

      SE ridge is coming, but it will also be sharing time with a polar jet.

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