DAYS 1-5 (JUNE 20-24)

We’re going through the final hours of spring, but the atmosphere around here has already moved onto summer. Technically, the summer solstice occurs at 11:31 p.m. tonight, when the Earth’s wobble reaches the point which puts our sun angle at its highest of the year before it begins its long journey back the other way. But don’t waste time lamenting that the climb is done. Summer is just about to get underway and it’s weeks before we really notice a change in the daylight. I’d also like to wish any dads reading this a Happy Father’s Day! In our area it will be a very nice day for outdoor activity! It might not look that way initially in a good portion of the region that starts the day under a canopy of clouds, leftover from a departing disturbance. This disturbance was responsible for triggering a fairly widespread rain of showers and thunderstorms to the south of I-90 last night. But today, high pressure builds in and the humidity will be lower to the north and still moderate to the south, as the push of driest air is not all that strong. It will also be quite the warm day today. Tonight, the dew point starts to come up as we get into a stronger southwesterly air flow and higher dew point air just to the south starts to shift northward. This will set up a hot and muggy Monday as high pressure shifts offshore and the next cold front sits back to the west of New England. As that front starts to draw closer to the region later in the day and the first of the tropical moisture in the air mass that contains a tropical low from the Gulf of Mexico, some shower and thunderstorm activity may arrive in western New England, but for now I expect that this activity will occur outside the WHW forecast area during the afternoon. During Monday night, however, the continued approach of this front and additional moisture advecting into New England from the south will increase the chance of showers and possible thunderstorms, a trend that will continue into much of Tuesday as the front finally moves into and crosses the region from west to east. While the actual remnant low from the Gulf of Mexico, or what’s left of it, probably passes just southeast of New England, it will have added humidity to the air and fuel for the front to work on. Once that front goes by, in comes a fresh polar air mass via Canada and the Great Lakes and we’ll see pleasant, comfortable early summer weather by the middle of the week as high pressure moves into the eastern Great Lakes and Ohio Valley by Wednesday then right over the region by Thursday. That would make Wednesday the “northwest wind” day that feels coolest and driest, and Thursday the pleasantly mild to warm summer day with slightly cooler sea breezes at the beaches.

TODAY: Early clouds exit from west to east, then sunny mid through late morning. Sunshine mixed with pop up fair weather clouds this afternoon. Highs 83-90. Dew point upper 50s to lower 60s, highest near the South Coast. Wind W 5-15 MPH.

TONIGHT: Mostly clear. Lows 63-70. Dew point near 60. Wind SW up to 10 MPH.

MONDAY: Partly cloudy. Highs 78-85 South Coast, 85-92 elsewhere. Dew point rising through 60s. Wind 10-20 MPH, gusts above 20 MPH.

MONDAY NIGHT: Variably cloudy. Foggy areas especially near South Coast. Isolated to scattered showers and possible thunderstorms. Lows 68-75. Dew point upper 60s to lower 70s. Wind S 10-15 MPH, gusts 20-25 MPH.

TUESDAY: Mostly cloudy. Episodes of showers and thunderstorms. Highs 78-85. Dew point lower 70s. Wind S to SW 10-20 MPH, gusts 25-30 MPH.

TUESDAY NIGHT: Clearing. Lows 60-67. Dew point falling through 60s to 50s. Wind W 5-15 MPH.

WEDNESDAY: Sun and passing clouds. Highs 75-82. Dew point falling to 40s. Wind NW 5-15 MPH.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT: Clear. Lows 51-58. Dew point 40s. Wind NW under 10 MPH becoming variable.

THURSDAY: Sunny. Highs 77-84, coolest coast. Wind variable up to 10 MPH with coastal sea breezes developing.

DAYS 6-10 (JUNE 25-29)

High pressure shifts offshore. Expect a warm front to pass by sometime June 25 with some cloudiness and perhaps an episode or two of showers. Most of the June 26-27 weekend should be rain-free but the shower and thunderstorm threat will be just west of the region Saturday and likely shift a little eastward so that the WHW forecast area has a chance of a few showers and storms in the area by later on Sunday. June 28-29 stand the best chance of showers/storms with a front in the region. Obviously, the further out in time we get, the lower the forecast confidence, but this is how I foresee things playing out at this time.

DAYS 11-15 (JUNE 30 – JULY 4)

Upper level low pressure may hang around to end June with additional showers/storms possible, then a warmer/drier trend possible thereafter as we get into a more westerly air flow.