Friday September 24 2021 Forecast (7:17AM)

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DAYS 1-5 (SEPTEMBER 24-28)

A forecast tweak appears on this update. Up through midday into afternoon Saturday, the expectation remains the same. A slow-moving cold front crossing the region and coming to a stop near the coast. A band of scattered to broken showers (and a few thunderstorms, a couple of which may be strong), take place along this boundary but with a gradual weakening trend as it moves to the east, then a break in the shower activity for the first half of Saturday. The difference is there is a little more emphasis for a ripple of low pressure moving up along the frontal boundary to enhance shower activity again for the region from later in the day Saturday to early morning Sunday from south to north, favoring eastern areas, before a stronger push of drier air arrives. There is still another disturbance to swing through from the west late Sunday / Sunday night with its own chance of shower activity. With all of this, it may sound like a washed-out weekend upcoming, but it is far from that. Just choose your outside times wisely and keep an eye on radar. A shot of cooler Canadian air visits us early next week, with mostly dry weather, but there is the chance of a passing shower with a disturbance coming along in a trough over the region most likely sometime on Tuesday.

TODAY: Mostly cloudy. Areas of fog. Numerous to scattered showers and possible thunderstorms. Humid. Highs 68-75. Wind S 10-20 MPH, higher gusts.

TONIGHT: Mostly cloudy. Chance of showers, favoring eastern areas. Patchy fog. Humid. Lows 58-65. Wind S-SW 5-15 MPH.

SATURDAY: Partly sunny through early afternoon. Mostly cloudy remainder of day with isolated to scattered showers, especially RI and eastern MA. Humid, especially eastern MA and RI. Highs 70-77. Wind SW to variable 5-15 MPH.

SATURDAY NIGHT: Mostly cloudy. Areas of fog. Scattered to numerous showers. Lows 58-65. Wind variable up to 10 MPH.

SUNDAY: Variably cloudy. Chance of showers early favoring eastern MA and southeastern NH. Chance of late day showers favoring southwestern NH and central MA. Highs 70-77. Wind W 5-15 MPH.

SUNDAY NIGHT: Variably cloudy. Chance of showers, possibly a thunderstorm. Lows 58-65. Wind SW 5-15 MPH.

MONDAY: Partly cloudy. Highs 67-73. Wind W 5-15 MPH.

MONDAY NIGHT: Partly cloudy. Lows 48-55. Wind NW 5-15 MPH.

TUESDAY: Variably cloudy. Chance of showers. Highs 65-72. Wind W 5-15 MPH, higher gusts.

DAYS 6-10 (SEPTEMBER 29 – OCTOBER 3)

Cautious optimism that we enter a dry and seasonable pattern, governed by high pressure, but given our recent history, don’t lock this in. There are indications of broad low pressure hanging around to the south of the region which we always have to watch, and tropical activity in the western Atlantic which can also impact the weather pattern, even if systems do not directly impact the region.

DAYS 11-15 (OCTOBER 4-8)

For now the same idea carries into this period as well. High pressure is indicated as a controller by a lot of guidance, but that doesn’t mean it will hold the entire time with a dry pattern. Stay tuned…

57 thoughts on “Friday September 24 2021 Forecast (7:17AM)”

  1. It’s amazing to me (and purely coincidental) how often this area has rain on the 24th of a month. 😉

    1. It seems to happen with certain days in winter for snow. I know it is only twice, but then it was May. Both snows were on the 9th. And we all know how often we have fairly major storms around December 9. But other day numbers also

      1. December 9 and 17 have been common snowy days.

        As a scientist I know it’s coincidence, but sometimes hmmm… 😉

    1. Thank you.
      I spiked a 101 fever last evening which broke big time early this morning.

      I swear I’m sweating this thing out.

      But at the moment I feel a lot better than I did 24; hours ago and the 3 days leading up to yesterday!

      I’ll take it.

  11. Thanks TK.

    And thanks again for the links regarding A.M.O. If I read the graphs correctly, we are coming out of the “warm phase”, correct? Looking forward to “cooler” falls in the next decade or two.

    1. Slowly heading toward the end of the warm phase. It’s hard to tell how quickly that end will come. Could be next year, but more likely several more years. Time will tell.

  12. Its interesting, in a fairly amplified pattern, to watch the models try to project the positions and the amplitudes of the trofs that are forecast to then cutoff.

    If the trof coming off the east coast can tug Sam north, its gone well east of us.

    If somehow the trof doesnt really tug it north, the trof retrogrades to the southwest, then, as a closed low, has a chance to pull it back further northwest, closer to the US.

  15. Short range guidance did a pretty decent job killing a fair amount of the convection with the front.

    As I said previously, I thought the event as a whole was being a bit over-advertised for eastern areas…

    1. Rapid improvement underway…

      I actually predicted this 3 days ago. Friday was going to be the day. There is somebody who reads the blog that can back me up on this prediction, If she’s paying attention. 🙂

      1. Haha! She rarely reads the comments, but yes, rapid improvement day as today was solidly in the 5 day forecast 😉

        1. That’s right. I said it to you I believe too. Maybe I wasn’t paying close enough attention myself. 😉

          Anyway, today’s the day. It’s happening in quick fashion. 🙂

  18. TK – Will tomorrow night’s rain last very long into Sunday morning?

    I would like my Sunday morning commute to work (6-7a) as dry as possible.

    1. Hard to say for sure. Right now I’m leaning dry for that time frame though. There are a couple pieces of guidance that dispute this idea, so don’t lock it in yet.

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