Saturday November 27 2021 Forecast (8:08AM)


As anticipated, snowflakes fell in a good portion of the WHW forecast area last evening, resulting in anything from just flakes in the air with no accumulation from Boston southward to a light coating in nearby suburbs to up to around 1 or 2 inches, even a few 3 inch amounts, in the outlying higher elevation locations. The low pressure area responsible for it formed on a passing cold front and intensified rapidly, pulling a lobe of moisture around its back side as the cold air was getting established, resulting in the snowfall for the region. If you had a barometer and looked at it, or looked up area pressures, you’d have seen that it fell pretty sharply yesterday late afternoon and evening, in response to the formation and rapid strengthening of the low pressure area. But now that low has exited and is moving away via the Canadian maritime provinces. We’ll be in the tight pressure gradient between it and high pressure approaching from the west today, so we’ll have blustery and cold weather, starting with a lot of clouds that will eventually give way to sun. The cold wind will continue tonight but ease up Sunday as high pressure builds across the region, and while it will be a cold day it won’t feel nearly as biting as today will. We’re in a pattern of quick-moving systems, and we’ll turn our attention to a clipper low pressure area moving through the Great Lakes and heading for NY State Sunday night into Monday, spawning a weak secondary low just south of New England that will then move right across the Cape Cod area early Monday. This system will bring a swath of precipitation to the region that is on the light side and not long-lasting. It’ll fall as mostly snow over interior areas and north of Boston, but mix/rain from Boston southward across the South Shore region and along the South Coast. Although areas that see rain may flip to some snowflakes before the precipitation pulls away by midday Monday, and the rest of the day will feature drier but blustery and chilly weather. High pressure slides across the region Monday night then out of the region on Tuesday as a weakening clipper low moves through the Great Lakes again. This system will already be moisture-starved and losing support so it may bring some clouds to our area Tuesday but that should be it with continued dry, cold conditions. A west northwesterly air flow will likely drive a cold front through the region Wednesday, reinforcing the chilly air to start December.

TODAY: Lots of clouds giving way to more sun. Highs 37-44. Wind NW 10-20 MPH, higher gusts.

TONIGHT: Mostly clear. Lows 18-25. Wind WNW 5-15 MPH.

SUNDAY: Mostly sunny to partly cloudy. Highs 38-45. Wind W up to 10 MPH.

SUNDAY NIGHT: Clouding up. Late evening and overnight light snow chance except mix/rain Boston, South Shore, and South Coast. Snow accumulation of a coating to 1 inch possible mainly over interior areas. Lows 29-36.Wind variable up to 10 MPH.

MONDAY: Cloudy start with a chance of light mix/snow favoring southern and eastern areas, then partly sunny. Highs 38-45. Wind N to NW 5-15 MPH.

MONDAY NIGHT: Partly cloudy. Lows 18-25. Wind NW 5-15 MPH, higher gusts.

TUESDAY: Partly sunny. Highs 37-44. Wind variable up to 10 MPH.

TUESDAY NIGHT: Partly cloudy. Lows 23-30. Wind W up to 10 MPH.

WEDNESDAY: Partly sunny. Chance of a passing snow flurry. Highs 37-44. Wind NW 10-20 MPH.

DAYS 6-10 (DECEMBER 2-6)

While not “stormy” in the way we often think of it, the pattern will be active with a lot of disturbances coming along in a flow that will shift from west northwest to west southwest. A weak low pressure system will likey pass by with little fanfare early in the period. A low system with a little more moisture available targets a December 4 passage at which time we may briefly warm up to include rain showers, followed by a sharp chill-down and a snow shower possibility as it pulls away.

DAYS 11-15 (DECEMBER 7-11)

A little more west to southwesterly air flow at upper levels and a little more activity in the jet stream results in better precipitation chances during this period. Temperatures variable, near normal overall.

40 thoughts on “Saturday November 27 2021 Forecast (8:08AM)”

  1. Thank you TK!
    A nice fresh 3” coating of snow here in Sturbridge. It made the tree lighting on the town common very festive with some moderate snow the whole time. It makes decorating for Christmas that much more fun when the ground is white.

  2. Thanks TK.

    Would have liked the first snowflakes of the season occur in the daytime and not have to rely on streetlights to see them. Oh well. At least they were right on time. 🙂

    Average first flakes (0.1”) = November 27-28

  3. I must say, so far I am NOT impressed by anything coming down the road, even out 10-16 days. blah blah blah
    Sure, that can and often does change, but so far NOTHING
    to get excited about.

    Are we to have a colossal DUD of a Winter? Would NOT surprise me at all.

    And before TK chimes in, I KNOW it is NOT even Winter yet. 🙂 🙂 🙂

    1. So-so to poorly performing models that look out reliably a few days and unreliably after that will provide very little clue and definitely will not help foresee a colossal dud of a winter. There’s no solid evidence even in the indices to indicate that right now. We’re looking at a fairly active pattern with mostly weak systems as we head through the final 4 weeks of 3 1/2 weeks of autumn, which is a very long time, before we can start to figure out how our winter may start off, let alone how it will be mid winter and finish off. But don’t worry, I already saw people proclaiming “this winter sucks!” back in the first week of November. Now THOSE are the people who need to get a clue. You’re fine. 😉

      1. 🙂 🙂 I am a very impatient old man. I want snow and I want it now. Last night was a tiny weenie teaser. I was hoping for more tomorrow night, but not looking like it now.

        Down the road? Who knows.

        Always hoping…..

    1. It has been really impressive how long the colors have held on in the greater Philly area this fall. Like SNE, we were a good 10-14 days behind average for the peak, but it seems like the past peak phase where there’s still decent color has gone on forever. We haven’t had much in the way of big wind events which has probably helped. The warm and wet summer was surely a factor as well.

    1. Enjoy, Tom. My business partner and his wife retired in York. It is a perfect. Retirement spot. Ocean, shops, restaurants, plays….just perfect

  4. I’ve seen people around social media declaring Monday a “bust”. I HATE THAT TERM when it is misused. A bust is a bad forecast. That is what it means. It was a term coined by meteorologists and stolen by the general public and immediately redefined. That’s not what it means. And even if I cave for a moment to their terminology, any competent meteorologist was never calling for a big winter storm on Monday. We said it was a period of time to watch (some of us have said that for up to 2 weeks in advance) but never dared get detailed until it was safe to do so. This just shows me that there are a whole lot of people out there who just simply don’t understand how to understand weather info… What an uphill battle to get people to realize this. You tell them, and the next time they still take the SAME approach. It’s tiring.

      1. Thank you. We are amazed that it stays so healthy. I know vincas can tolerate some frost but I didn’t think as much as we have had

      1. I already have a bad feeling that Logan may be lucky to see 19 inches total for the upcoming season. Things just not looking right. Just a gut on my part of course, but the persistent leaves on the trees not encouraging for starters.

        I will say that the vast majority of leaves in my neighborhood are now off the trees. Still a handful of leftovers though.

        1. Also, according to Dave Epstein this morning, we are currently #1 for the warmest November and may dip no lower than #3 in the remaining few days left.

  5. Nice first day of skiing here at Stratton today. Not as much new snow as Killington but more like mid winter conditions than November. Sun has finally broken out to take the bite away from the wind and cold!

  6. Ryan Maue tweet:

    Environment Canada’s weather models are being upgraded next week to version 8.0.0 — once per year overhaul. (details…)

    The Canadian global model actually scores better than NOAA GFS w/5 day NHEMI forecasts over past year, significantly so.

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