Wednesday May 11 2022 Forecast (7:40AM)

DAYS 1-5 (MAY 11-15)

The Rex Block (high pressure north / low pressure south) that has been dominating our pattern for several days will gradually weaken and break down during the next 5 days. A maritime air flow hangs on for another day as low pressure to the south gradually starts to loosen its grip and high pressure still sits to the north. The orientation of the low to our south has changed so that it can throw back one larger scale lobe of moisture in the form of cloudiness, which will move in today, peak tonight, and break up and exit gradually on Thursday, as high pressure drifts right into the region. This high will sit over to just south and east of the region as we get into Friday and more so by the weekend, so our transition to a region-wide warmer regime will take place, albeit slowly. The coastal areas will hang onto cooler conditions longer, as is typical of springtime. The warmest day for most of us should be Saturday, when the wind is mainly from the southwest, but eastern areas may be a little less warm by Sunday as the wind flow may be more from due south, and bring in more influence from the cooler ocean water south of the area. Generally dry weather is expected during the next 5 days. The exceptions will be a few showers around Cape Cod mainly early today, perhaps a few pockets of drizzle mainly in coastal areas tonight and early Thursday due to lower level moisture from the ocean, and a few isolated showers which may pop up over the weekend, favoring inland areas, but this chance is quite low.

TODAY: Clouds increase east to west. A few rain showers around Cape Cod. Highs 57-64, coolest coast. Wind E 5-15 MPH, higher gusts.

TONIGHT: Cloudy. Fog patches. Chance of coastal drizzle. Lows 46-53. Wind variable under 10 MPH.

THURSDAY: Clouds give way to sun. Highs 57-64 coastal plain, 65-72 interior. Wind variable up to 10 MPH with coastal sea breezes.

THURSDAY NIGHT: Variably cloudy. Lows 50-57. Wind variable under 10 MPH.

FRIDAY: Partly sunny. Highs 60-67 coast, 68-75 inland, but can drop during the afternoon especially in coastal areas. Wind variable to W up to 10 MPH but coastal sea breezes likely.

FRIDAY NIGHT: Partly cloudy. Lows 51-58. Wind SW 5-15 MPH.

SATURDAY: Partly cloudy. Remote chance of isolated showers inland areas. Highs 77-84 except cooler coastal areas especially South Coast and Cape Cod. Wind SW 5-15 MPH.

SATURDAY NIGHT: Partly cloudy. Patchy fog. Lows 53-60. Wind S up to 10 MPH.

SUNDAY: Partly sunny. Slight chance of isolated showers inland locadtions. Highs 75-82 inland, cooler coastal areas. Wind S 5-15 MPH.

DAYS 6-10 (MAY 16-20)

Upper air pattern looks more zonal (west to east) with a tendency for high pressure ridging near the East Coast. This is not automatically a warm pattern the entire time though, especially in the spring. We do likely have a warm day to start the period on May 16 as a cold front approaches and crosses the region with a shower and thunderstorm threat. A shot of dry but cooler air follows this. A warm up may try to take place later in the period but that will depend on the orientation and movement of a frontal boundary in the region, which threatens more clouds and possibly some rainfall, but looking this far into the future this does not look like it would produce significant rainfall. Our region is in need of rain to quell brush fire threats and prevent future abnormally dry / drought conditions from developing.

DAYS 11-15 (MAY 21-25)

Today’s leaning is for more a somewhat progressive pattern versus blocking, though we need to watch that as guidance can misfire on picking it up, or waffle back and forth. Right now going with a zonal flow but more troughing here and ridging back toward the Midwest. This would be a dry but slightly cooler pattern for our region.

53 thoughts on “Wednesday May 11 2022 Forecast (7:40AM)”

    1. They haven’t been recently.
      Don’t y think they do upcoming either. πŸ™‚

    1. AP exams were scheduled in Belmont. The high school Had to be closed today due to a bomb threat.

            1. 80s in Southern Canada and 56 in Boston)!(@&#&!)(&#@)(&!)(#@&*(!&@#)(&*!)(@#&*!()@&*#*!&@#*)&!)(@#&*)!(&@#)(!(#&!)(@#&)(!*@#()&!)@#(&!)(&@#)(!&@#)(&!)(#&

              Spring in New England)!(@&#()&!)(#&*()!&@#&!)(@#&(!)@&#(!&@#)(&!@)(#&!)(#&)(!&@#(&!)(@#&)!(&#@!)(@#&)!(@#&)!(@&#!)&@#(&!()(&@#

  1. Kudos to Petey B today for taking the opportunity the last few days to explain model shortcomings to his viewers.

    Without education, being shown guidance numbers other forecasts (specifically cloud cover in this case), any viewer can and often will make the assumption that this forecast is without potential fault. That’s simply not true in the modeling portion of our science, and he took the time to drive that point home several times. Well-done!

    Refer to my “Models 101” comment from a few days ago for more.

    1. Agree. Pete and Eric are great at educating. Eric might even be a bit better.

      I’m putting myself in a time out now.

  2. For the third time in about as many weeks I have messed up a forecast by way of forecasting too many clouds too soon and ending up with more sun and milder temperatures as a result. And for the third time I am pretty sure not too many people would complain about that kind of a forecast error. πŸ˜‰

    The clouds are starting to overtake the region gradually but it is a slower process then I anticipated what I wrote my update this morning.

    1. I’m wrong. It does get above freezing at the end of the week on this forecast from Environment Canada, but does not on the forecast.

  3. Absolute legend in the weather field has just announced his retirement. Congratulations Harvey you are the best !!!

      1. I love ch 5 & just love Harvey as he is a straight shooter with no drama . But I have 100% confidence with the other members of the weather team . I bet wankum becomes the new Chief

        1. Harvey will always be known as the only tv met in Boston to forecast the Blizzard of β€˜78 days in advance. He probably didn’t expect 27.1” but he had the right setup of the storm. πŸ™‚

          Then, 44 years later, he accurately forecasted the Blizzard of 2022 down to almost the exact inch. Absolutely impeccable! πŸ™‚

          Harvey will be sorely missed. Waunkum just doesn’t do it for me. Oh well. πŸ™

          1. Wankum is OK. He is growing on me. I have finally gotten used to his style. He is not bad at all.

    1. So sorry to see him retire.

      I wonder IF it was truly what he wanted or did management
      force him. I sure hope this is what he wanted.

      I hate to see him go!!!2

      1. Absolutely I would say not forced & Tk mentioned this over a year or so ago .

  4. While Harvey is retiring from his weekday/weeknight position we will still see plenty of Harvey. It is not a complete retirement.

    It’s a retirement from that role and an assumption of a new role as chief meteorologist emeritus, where he will still appear on the station to cover severe weather events and deliver other special reports. It will be a great wind-down to a great career.

    1. I prefer to think of it as a happy day because we can celebrate his great career and also know that he’s not “going away”, he’s just stepping down from full time and will still be around from time to time while he spends lots of time with family. πŸ™‚

  5. Harvey is a legend and class act. Good for him and glad to hear he will still be involved while getting more time with his family. Also love the camaraderie amongst the Mets across the stations. It was in full display today.

  6. No surprise here, but short range guidance is backing off the warm up a bit more each run.

    Meanwhile, I saw a Tweet from Mass Live saying that a “heatwave” was coming with temps in the 80s.

    1) There will be no widespread 80s.
    2) A heatwave is 3 or more consecutive days with a high temp of 90 or higher.

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