DAYS 1-5 (MAY 14-18)
Our weekend will feature a summer preview – not hot, but quite warm away from any ocean’s influence, as we have a southwesterly flow today and a bit more southerly on Sunday. Today will be the warmest day in many areas by a few degrees. There is going to be a variety of clouds sharing the sky, with low level stratus clouds often flirting with the South Coast, and sometimes dominating there. A shield of higher clouds will start to overspread the sky as today goes on from southwest to northeast, and thickens and lowers a little bit tonight, enough to bring some showers through the region during the overnight hours and first thing on Sunday. This is actually the remnants of that low pressure area that sat to our south for many days during the blocking pattern during the past week. As the block has been breaking down, that low pressure area moved westward, then northward, and will be making a transition to a disturbance joining a more west to east jet stream at higher latitudes, but it has to pass by us in the process. The good news is we get rid of it for most of Sunday, which looks like quite the nice day after we get rid of the earlier more extensive clouds. However again we have to watch for more stubborn lower clouds at the South Coast due to the southerly air flow. Both today and Sunday run a small chance of seeing a couple showers pop up over inland locations, but this is a very low chance that is not worth altering any outdoor plans over other than simply keeping an eye on the radar. Also, with the warmer weather, many people may want to try to sneak in an early beach day. If you do, please keep in mind that it is only mid May and the ocean water temperatures are as cold as the upper 40s to lower 50s. This is water you don’t want to immerse yourself in for more than a minute or two, if you’re brave enough to do even that. Water that cold can impact you quickly and impair muscle function. Also worthy of mention are tree pollen counts which will be very high the next few days with the lack of general rainfall in the forecast – so allergy sufferers take note. Sorry for the more negative sounding information, but it’s important to note these potential issues. Something a little more fun to talk about: A total lunar eclipse that occurs on Sunday night / early Monday. The full Flower Moon this year will be eclipsed from the 9 p.m. hour Sunday to nearly 3 a.m. Monday, with a total phase that lasts nearly 90 minutes from about 11:30 p.m. to about 1:00 a.m. Although we are not expecting a totally clear sky, the variable cloud cover across most of the region should allow some visibility for this event. Plan accordingly! More about this in tomorrow’s blog post. Back to the forecast – our preview of summer continues Monday with moderate to high humidity for this time of year and an approaching cold front, which may trigger some shower and thunderstorm activity before it passes by. We’ll see a return to cooler weather with lower humidity for Tuesday and Wednesday. On Tuesday, and upper level cool pool and surface trough will at least trigger clouds and may produce a shower or even an isolated thunderstorm in a day that will otherwise be generally rain-free but fairly breezy. High pressure approaches on Wednesday and while we will still have a bit of a breeze to contend with, it will be quite pleasant – a land breeze for the region as opposed to the chillier onshore flow we had not so long ago.
TODAY: Sun/cloud mix. Remote chance of an isolated afternoon shower inland locations. Highs 72-79 coastal plain except cooler South Coast, 80-87 inland with warmest in valley areas west and north of Boston. Moderately humid – dew point near 60. Wind SW 5-15 MPH.
TONIGHT: Mostly cloudy. Chance of showers. Patchy fog. Lows 58-65. Moderately humid – dew point upper 50s to near 60. Wind S 5-15 MPH.
SUNDAY: Lots of clouds and a possible shower early morning, then a sun/cloud mix and a slight chance of isolated afternoon showers inland, mainly well west of Boston. Highs 75-82 inland, cooler coastal areas. Moderately humid – dew point around 60. Wind S 5-15 MPH.
SUNDAY NIGHT: Variably cloudy. Patchy fog. Lows 58-65. Moderately humid – dew point upper 50s to lower 60s. Wind S 5-15 MPH.
MONDAY: Variably cloudy. Chance of showers and possible thunderstorms, especially late-day. Humid – dew point lower to middle 60s. Highs 76-83 except cooler South Coast Wind S-SW 5-15 MPH, higher gusts.
MONDAY NIGHT: Variably cloudy. Chance of showers and possibly a thunderstorm evening. Humid early, then drying. Lows 51-58. Wind W 5-15 MPH, higher gusts.
TUESDAY: Sun/cloud mix. A passing shower or thunderstorm is possible. Highs 70-77. Wind W 10-20 MPH.
TUESDAY NIGHT: Clearing. Lows 50-57. Wind W 5-15 MPH.
WEDNESDAY: Mostly sunny. Highs 68-75. Wind NW 5-15 MPH, few higher gusts.
DAYS 6-10 (MAY 19-23)
High pressure moves overhead with fair, mild, and tranquil weather May 19, then the high shifts offshore and we remain mainly dry but warm up later next week (May 20-21). By the time we get later into the period there are hints of high pressure in eastern Canada battling with high pressure to the south in the Middle Atlantic. This can set up a back-door frontal passage and a cooler shot of air from the Canadian Maritimes of the high to the north is strong enough, or a bit of an unsettled stretch of the boundary comes in and sits nearby. Obviously, it’s far too soon to speculate any further than that.
DAYS 11-15 (MAY 24-28)
Watch early period for an air mass battle and potential unsettled weather. Overall, dry trend should win out and we end up mainly fair.