TK, I agree with you that the media is prone to hyperbole. In our capitalist system – for better or for worse (I’m all for capitalism, by the way) – the media is free to express itself as it sees fit, BUT dependent on advertisement revenue, and therefore clicks and eyeballs, for survival.
This said, we’re in a perilous period regarding public health. Detecting community transmission of polio, for example, is really serious. Hasn’t happened in decades. In fact, we thought we were done with this virus. Other diseases like diphtheria, are also being spotted in the community in countries that haven’t seen it in decades.
Monkeypox is not an apocalyptic disease. It’s NOT smallpox, despite being related to it. But, it’s also a serious concern, given its spread, the numbers hospitalized, and the fact that no-one can be sure at this time about the disease’s sequelae (follow-up health events) in those who’ve contracted it.
Covid-19 is an ongoing problem. Manageable to some degree. We are in a better place overall than we were. But, there’s uncertainty about its path going forward.
I was thinking the same. We are in a mess and sadly our approach by so-called expert agencies …from government to schools….is making matters worse
One thing that does surprise me is the lack of reporting by media on some aspects of Covid such as long Covid. The average person doesn’t seem to understand how many are susceptible to it.
Joshua: if you had to guess, based on everything you know today, when do you think the Covid pandemic will be declared over? “I don’t know” is a perfectly acceptable answer. I definitely understand that, being a meteorologist.
Hedging my bets, my answer is “I don’t know.”
But, I’m eternally optimistic. IF the sub-variants of Omicron don’t pick up momentum AND another variant doesn’t mess things up like Omicron did last November, then we’ll be post pandemic by late October. My criterion for exiting the pandemic phase is that we’re down to 100 deaths/day, and I think that’s possible. Quantifying that possibility, I’d say we’ve got a 60% chance of getting there by late October.
What this means is that we’ll have entered the endemic phase. People will still get felled by the coronavirus, long Covid will be an issue for some. But, it won’t be considered a pandemic.
Thank you!
You’ve been my favorite source of info on this since it began, not that I wish we needed all this info, but we have.
Joshua, will it be the CDC’s responsibility to officially declare the pandemic “over” and if so, will your criteria of no more than 100 deaths per day be the same for them or whichever agency that makes that call? Is ‘100’ the official standard?
When that finally happens, do you think that healthcare facilities will remove mask mandates for patients and staff or always keep them in place to some extent indefinitely?
Good question, Philip.
CDC may declare the pandemic at a certain point this fall or winter. I don’t know which criteria it will use. I suspect most remaining mask mandates would then be removed. However, even without mandates, I think that many healthcare facilities and dental offices will maintain mask advisories at least. Keep in mind, masks don’t just protect against Covid-19. If influenza spikes masks can be a useful protective measure.
The 100 deaths a day threshold is admittedly somewhat arbitrary. It’s a number I’ve adopted as a reasonable threshold to distinguish pandemic from endemic. It has some empirical backing, namely, 100 deaths a day or fewer is what is fairly typical during flu season. Influenza tends to strike for 4-5 month periods at ~75-100 deaths/day. We generally don’t use the term pandemic to describe influenza, though sometimes we do – when it gets really bad. On the other hand, influenza strains are invariably endemic. They circulate. They’re never eliminated.
It is terrifying to think we might rely on the cdc for anything. Masks are here to stay for me for the foreseeable future. My trust level is somewhere in the negatives….for our government agencies and far too many people.
Example… an anti mask woman was hauled out of a school committee meeting in handcuffs today.
Pfizer’s CEO Albert Bourla has tested positive. He tweeted about it and has gotten a lot of flak. I don’t think he deserved most of the criticism he received. However, I do wish he had not been so public in his self-promotion. He specifically cites Pfizer’s vaccine and Pfizer’s product Paxlovid. He can’t help himself, I guess. He is CEO of a very successful company. But, if I were Albert (clearly I am not!) I would have not included Pfizer’s name in the tweet. Just let the world know you have Covid-19, a mild case, and you’re grateful for having been vaccinated because this will significantly reduce the chance of severe illness. Don’t mention Paxlovid – which you really don’t need unless you’re at risk of severe disease – and don’t include brand names. It’s just too dollar signsey. https://twitter.com/AlbertBourla/status/1559145992594784256
Absolutely agree.
C-19
8-16
ready
Comments are closed.
Your no-hype southeastern New England weather blog!
Thanks TK.
TK, I agree with you that the media is prone to hyperbole. In our capitalist system – for better or for worse (I’m all for capitalism, by the way) – the media is free to express itself as it sees fit, BUT dependent on advertisement revenue, and therefore clicks and eyeballs, for survival.
This said, we’re in a perilous period regarding public health. Detecting community transmission of polio, for example, is really serious. Hasn’t happened in decades. In fact, we thought we were done with this virus. Other diseases like diphtheria, are also being spotted in the community in countries that haven’t seen it in decades.
Monkeypox is not an apocalyptic disease. It’s NOT smallpox, despite being related to it. But, it’s also a serious concern, given its spread, the numbers hospitalized, and the fact that no-one can be sure at this time about the disease’s sequelae (follow-up health events) in those who’ve contracted it.
Covid-19 is an ongoing problem. Manageable to some degree. We are in a better place overall than we were. But, there’s uncertainty about its path going forward.
I was thinking the same. We are in a mess and sadly our approach by so-called expert agencies …from government to schools….is making matters worse
One thing that does surprise me is the lack of reporting by media on some aspects of Covid such as long Covid. The average person doesn’t seem to understand how many are susceptible to it.
Joshua: if you had to guess, based on everything you know today, when do you think the Covid pandemic will be declared over? “I don’t know” is a perfectly acceptable answer. I definitely understand that, being a meteorologist.
Hedging my bets, my answer is “I don’t know.”
But, I’m eternally optimistic. IF the sub-variants of Omicron don’t pick up momentum AND another variant doesn’t mess things up like Omicron did last November, then we’ll be post pandemic by late October. My criterion for exiting the pandemic phase is that we’re down to 100 deaths/day, and I think that’s possible. Quantifying that possibility, I’d say we’ve got a 60% chance of getting there by late October.
What this means is that we’ll have entered the endemic phase. People will still get felled by the coronavirus, long Covid will be an issue for some. But, it won’t be considered a pandemic.
Thank you!
You’ve been my favorite source of info on this since it began, not that I wish we needed all this info, but we have.
Interesting local study on masks and mask mandates. https://twitter.com/DGBassani/status/1559177139395649536
Interesting but sadly it is simple common sense.
Comments are also interesting and true.
Must be the day for posting mask benefits
https://twitter.com/erictopol/status/1559198721123921920?s=21&t=lXAFoAdrzsxibeAhb7JESA
Joshua, will it be the CDC’s responsibility to officially declare the pandemic “over” and if so, will your criteria of no more than 100 deaths per day be the same for them or whichever agency that makes that call? Is ‘100’ the official standard?
When that finally happens, do you think that healthcare facilities will remove mask mandates for patients and staff or always keep them in place to some extent indefinitely?
Good question, Philip.
CDC may declare the pandemic at a certain point this fall or winter. I don’t know which criteria it will use. I suspect most remaining mask mandates would then be removed. However, even without mandates, I think that many healthcare facilities and dental offices will maintain mask advisories at least. Keep in mind, masks don’t just protect against Covid-19. If influenza spikes masks can be a useful protective measure.
The 100 deaths a day threshold is admittedly somewhat arbitrary. It’s a number I’ve adopted as a reasonable threshold to distinguish pandemic from endemic. It has some empirical backing, namely, 100 deaths a day or fewer is what is fairly typical during flu season. Influenza tends to strike for 4-5 month periods at ~75-100 deaths/day. We generally don’t use the term pandemic to describe influenza, though sometimes we do – when it gets really bad. On the other hand, influenza strains are invariably endemic. They circulate. They’re never eliminated.
It is terrifying to think we might rely on the cdc for anything. Masks are here to stay for me for the foreseeable future. My trust level is somewhere in the negatives….for our government agencies and far too many people.
Example… an anti mask woman was hauled out of a school committee meeting in handcuffs today.
To my point
https://twitter.com/alexmeshkin/status/1559343599187214336?s=21&t=VaQC9i4CleNwsMpnaBrzAg
Pfizer’s CEO Albert Bourla has tested positive. He tweeted about it and has gotten a lot of flak. I don’t think he deserved most of the criticism he received. However, I do wish he had not been so public in his self-promotion. He specifically cites Pfizer’s vaccine and Pfizer’s product Paxlovid. He can’t help himself, I guess. He is CEO of a very successful company. But, if I were Albert (clearly I am not!) I would have not included Pfizer’s name in the tweet. Just let the world know you have Covid-19, a mild case, and you’re grateful for having been vaccinated because this will significantly reduce the chance of severe illness. Don’t mention Paxlovid – which you really don’t need unless you’re at risk of severe disease – and don’t include brand names. It’s just too dollar signsey. https://twitter.com/AlbertBourla/status/1559145992594784256
Absolutely agree.
C-19
8-16
ready