Warm & Bright Friday, Not As Nice This Weekend

76 Comments

8:04PM

What I do know: Friday will be a wonderful mid spring day. The weather will go downhill this weekend through Monday.

What I don’t know: How much rain will fall between Saturday night and Monday. There are too many scenarios with how the interaction of several disturbances will pan out in regards to the timing and location of any significant rain. For now, I’m not even going to go through them in any detail. It will just be something to watch and this medium to low confidence forecast will reflect this approach. Stay tuned for updates…

In the mean time, the forecast for eastern MA, RI, and southern NH…

TONIGHT: Mostly clear. Low from the middle 40s to lower 50s. Wind S up to 10 MPH.

FRIDAY: Mostly sunny. High 72-77. Wind S 5-15 MPH.

FRIDAY NIGHT: Partly cloudy. Areas of fog late. Low 52-57. Wind S 5-15 MPH.

SATURDAY: Mostly cloudy. Scattered showers mid to late afternoon. High 67-72. Wind SW 10-20 MPH and gusty.

SATURDAY NIGHT: Mostly cloudy. Chance of showers early. Low 50-55. Wind N 5-15 MPH.

SUNDAY: Cloudy. A period of rain late day and night. High 55-60. Wind variable 5-15 MPH.

MONDAY: Cloudy. Chance of rain early. Low 47. High 56.

TUESDAY: Partly sunny. Slight chance of showers. Low 43. High 57.

WEDNESDAY: Partly cloudy. Low 46. High 66.

THURSDAY: Mostly sunny. Low 47. High 68.

76 thoughts on “Warm & Bright Friday, Not As Nice This Weekend”

  2. nice day tomorrow indeed mid 70s and sun. 🙂
    My family and I finished the stone wall and started to level the earth. tomorrow we will continue to level out the earth and then put down the slate in the afternoon.
    On saturday if we did not finish the slate we will finish the slate while parents go get the fence,grill and fire pit. Hopefully by saturday night we are all done with it. Next weekend will be the gardens 🙂 Also for the rock wall it has some holes in between. Any suggestions on what plants we should put in . we all ready know rock rose but what else is good. No ivy/ invasive plants. We have something against them since my grandmother used it all over the yard and it was so hard getting it all out.

  3. If this storm is as strong as some are saying the marsh is going to rise to normal levels and will also give me a chance to find the river otters

    1. It is amazing how Quickly levels can rise isn’t it. I have to look into river otters. I don’t know about them.

      1. What a cool animal. They don’t migrate and they don’t hibernate. Although we are cutting their numbers considerably. What else is new I’d love to see one. Matt do you see a lot?

  6. Doin the rain dance over here!

    Take Your Child to Work Day was a huge success today. The kids loved their weather stations; anamometer, barometer, and rain gauge. I told them with this rainstorm coming they would be able to use all 3 to their fullest. They seemed excited, although I think the biggest kid there (me) was the most excited! 😆

    1. I was wondering how it went today. My guess it was a success in good part because the kid in you got the kids in them all excited. 🙂

    2. Congrats on a successful day with the kids! I bet they found it to be educational and fun. That was a great idea!

  7. 00z GFS is catching onto the scenario I think pans out, though its total precipitation is probably over-forecast for Boston.

    1. the 00z NAM is also heading in the right direction. Starting to see how a whole lot of not-too-much rain ends up falling at Boston. It’s like having the giant bird fly right over your head and it doesn’t crap on you…

      1. I guess in every storm someone gets a little less and someone will get a little more than expected but I still respectably disagree I think the gfs has the right idea too over an inch of rain in general, have a good day 🙂

  8. As TK has pointed out above, GFS now joining the parade of an inland tracker.

    Would think that would put into play the dreaded dry slot coming up from the south, right into the areas that are in severe drought.

  10. Every storm I can remember from December on has tracked too far east or west for eastern mass to bare the brunt. It will rain just not 2-3inches from Boston through providence corridor.

      1. I thought both ch 4 and 7 were saying that much. 7 saying 1-3 this morning depending on location.

  11. Great day for the 100th birthday celebration for Fenway!! I’m not a huge Sox fan now – maybe because I am an old grump and remember what baseball was – but I can’t hear the name Fenway without getting a special feeling. Is anyone here lucky enough to attend today’s festivities?

    1. No 🙂 but can’t wait for the NFL draft next weekend and only 117 days till Patriots mini camp practices,

    2. I understand the historically nature but to go there and sit in a seat that was made for a kid are so uncomfortable. I’m not overweight or supertall, I’m average 5-11 220lbs and everyone are packed in there like sardines, back when I lived in Dallas for a few years ranger stadium was a beauty very roomy 50,000 people can watch and modern and very nice to the modern day fan, take it easy Vicki 😉

      1. Charlie, I was driving into work this morning thinking about Fenway and the 100th anniversary and saying to myself, I bet Charlie would think they need a new ballpark 😛 Sometimes I disagree with your opinions about this area and how we hold onto old things too long and never build anything new, but this time, I agree with you. As much as I love that ballpark, its time for a change. If they could build a new Yankee Stadium, the house that Ruth built, they can build a new Fenway.

        1. Sorry guys you know where I stand on tearing down history. We are not Dallas or Charlotte or any other city and not (shudder here) New York. We are Boston.

          And AceMaster – 🙂 – I had the same thought when I was watching coverage this morning on the news!!

          1. Yes and if we keep that thinking people and companies will continue to leave and not be able to build like they want hence we losing another seat in 2020 hence making the state even more powerless, again have a good day Vicki 🙂

  12. Off to the beach 🙂

    I’ll throw down some rainfall predictions…..

    Worcester to Providence, points east : .5 to .8
    West of Worcester : 1 to 1.5 inches of rain
    NYC, Albany and Burlington, VT : 1.6 to 2.2 inches of rain.

    That inland track throws the heaviest rain into western New England / eastern NY and also brings a quicker end to the rain in eastern New England.

  13. The gauntlet has been thrown down by Tom!! I can’t argue those number! Maybe if a band sets up closer to the coast we can get an inch in the boston area!

  14. I had some friends over last night who were visiting form the Mount Pleasant area of North Carolina. They shared a interesting story about an incident that occurred shortly after they moved into their house. They live outside of town in the country, mostly fields and farm land. One night shortly after they had moved in, after they put their children down for the night. They sat out on their front porch enjoying the views when the noticed a large deer along the tree line. They sat still and watched it for a while. It was grazing on something in that area noting its head would go down and come back up to look around. They also noted that the wind direction was coming from left to right if you were looking at the deer. After several minutes of watching it they noticed something the resembled a large dog, black in color to the right of the deer. The dog started to move slowly towards the deer and their stomachs dropped what they thought was a dog moved more like a cat. It was a black panther. They were in shock and before they knew it the panther took off for the deer. The deer ran into the woods with the panther close behind. Shortly afterwards they heard a squeal from then nothing. They were shocked, why the heck did we move here? LOL. The next day they asked their neighbors if they had seen anything like that around and they confirmed that several sightings of the animal occurred regularly. Scary stuff, I’ll take raccoons over squirrels any day!

  15. Heaviest rain western parts of SNE with this inland track but of course that could change with any slight shift in the track of the storm. As I always say in real estate its location location location in weather its track track track. I just read the NWS out of Upton NY and with this current track there could be snow flakes mixed in well north and west of NYC. Gusty winds will be another part of this storm system and I would not rule out someone hearing a rumble of thunder but no severe weather.

  17. Joe Joyce ‏ @JoeJoyceWBZ
    Bombogenesis likely with this storm over the Mid-Atlantic, then tracks west of New England…We are on the wet & windy side

  18. If this was winter I would be really upset with a storm going through bombogensis and tracking to our west but since it is spring and we need the rain I am not upset by this. Hopefully will get some good bombogensis next winter with the storm center tracking to the benchmark.

    1. Next Winter? JJ, we might not make it to next winter! Between the extreme drought and the black panthers we may all be extinct by the 4th of July. 🙂

    1. hahahaha – hold you to the date of the 21st (which I also believe is accurate) or hold you to the fact that the world will come to an end 😀

  20. NWS Taunton calling for widespread 2-3″ and “major dent in drought conditions” across most if not all of region.

    * CONFIDENCE CONTINUES TO INCREASE FOR WIDESPREAD RAINFALL
    SATURDAY EVENING INTO TUESDAY.

    MODEL DISCUSSION AND PREFERENCES…
    MOST OF MEDIUM RANGE MODEL SUITE CONTINUES IN FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT
    AND ACTUALLY SHOWING SOME CONSENSUS WITH THE DEVELOPMENT AND TRACK
    OF THE SOUTHERN LOW MOVING UP THE COAST EARLY NEXT WEEK.
    ACTUALLY…THE 00Z OP GFS RUN MADE A MAJOR TRACK ADJUSTMENT AND
    INTENSIFICATION OF THIS LOW. IT SHOWS A MUCH DEEPER CUTOFF UPPER LOW
    ACROSS VA/NC AND ACTUALLY TRYING TO CAPTURE THE SURFACE SYSTEM…
    DEEPENING IT ABOUT 10 MB LOWER THAN MOST OTHER MODELS AND SWINGING
    IT INTO S NJ/DELMARVA REGION DURING THE SUNDAY NIGHT-MONDAY
    TIMEFRAME…NOW FURTHER LEFT OF THE REMAINING MODELS BY 12Z MONDAY.
    STILL SOME PIECES OF ENERGY TRYING TO AFFECT THE EVOLUTION OF THIS
    SYSTEM BUT FOR THE MOST PART…REMAINING MODELS KEEP LONG WAVE
    TROUGH/CUTOFF UPPER LOW FURTHER W THAN GFS.

    USED A BLEND OF THE 00Z NAM/GGEM AND 12Z ECWMF IN SOME FASHION.
    LOOKS LIKE THIS SYSTEM WILL MAKE A MAJOR DENT IN THE DROUGHT
    CONDITIONS ACROSS MOST OF NOT ALL OF THE REGION…AT LEAST FOR NOW.
    STILL SOME DOUBTS AS TO HOW THIS ALL PLAYS OUT…BUT AT LEAST
    EXPECTING APPRECIABLE RAINFALL.

    .HYDROLOGY…
    REGION IS STILL ON TRACK TO RECEIVE BENEFICIAL RAINFALL AS MODELS
    CONTINUE TO SIGNAL HEAVY RAINFALL EVENT FOR MOST OF SUNDAY AND
    MONDAY ACROSS MOST OF IF NOT THE ENTIRE REGION. STILL SOME QUESTION AS TO THE ULTIMATE TRACK OF THE SURFACE SYSTEM…BUT DOES APPEAR IT MAY PUSH INTO CENTRAL AND WESTERN AREAS. QPF AROUND 2-3 INCHES AT THIS POINT…BUT STILL SOME QUESTIONS AS TO THE ULTIMATE TRACK. MAY STILL SEE SHOWERS CONTINUE INTO TUESDAY AND EVEN WEDNESDAY…THOUGH THIS IS LESS CERTAIN. MAY SEE LOCALIZED URBAN AND POOR DRAINAGE FLOODING IN SOME OF THE
    HEAVIER RAINFALL SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY.– End Changed Discussion —

  21. I don’t see anything to change my thinking of 1-2 inches widespread isolated lower amounts especially east and isolated higher amounts west, this won’t be a drought buster by no means but I’ll take it, it will help, everyone I talk to is actually saying they can’t wait for it, have a good day everyone 🙂

  22. I am in California for a few days, but before I left I know BB had Boston in the 2.5″-4″ range. Not sure if he has changed his forecast.

  23. 6z GFS rain totals very impressive across CT, central and western MA with 3-4″+…Euro shows similar. I’ll take it! Note the rapid drop off in rain totals SE of Boston towards the Cape and islands. Small change in track will have a big impact on the axis of heavy rain. I really think either way you slice it, most of SNE sees 2″+ of rain. This is a strong storm and there is going to be a good up front thumping of rain before any dry slot gets in here.

    http://mag.ncep.noaa.gov/NCOMAGWEB/appcontroller?prevPage=Model&MainPage=index&image=&page=Param&cycle=04%2F20%2F2012+06UTC&rname=PRECIP+PARMS&pname=precip_p48&pdesc=&model=GFS&area=NAMER&cat=MODEL+GUIDANCE&fcast=105&areaDesc=North+America+-+US+Canada+and+northern+Mexico&prevArea=NAMER&currKey=model&returnToModel=&imageSize=M

  24. Just a curious question. Does anyone know if there was a rip tide potential on cape ann yesterday. I was wondering about the little 2 year old who is missing. I know potential rip tides are always discussed in the media in summer months but don’t remember one ever being mentioned in non-swim months.

  28. Tom and TK, you both know far more about meterology than me, but I have to respectfully disagree with your rain totals. Widespread 3-4″ of rain across most of west/central New England with at least 2″ west of a BOS-PVD line. The only area that I could see not reaching 2″ is SE MA/Cape/Islands.

    The GFS and NAM bear this type of scenario out while the Euro is in fact farther east and puts the axis of heavier rain over eastern New England.

    TK, what do you feel the models are not seeing here? It is intriguing to watch the projected track of the coastal low on the GFS and NAM as it rides up the coast towards NJ and then actually start to veer NW towards Syracuse, NY due to the blocking high to the north. Even with this track, we get a big slug of rain ahead of the warm front.

    1. 12z GFS rain totals:

      http://mag.ncep.noaa.gov/NCOMAGWEB/appcontroller?prevPage=Param&MainPage=index&image=&page=Param&cycle=04%2F20%2F2012+12UTC&rname=PRECIP+PARMS&pname=precip_ptot&pdesc=&model=GFS&area=NAMER&cat=MODEL+GUIDANCE&fcast=111&areaDesc=North+America+-+US+Canada+and+northern+Mexico&prevArea=NAMER&currKey=model&returnToModel=&imageSize=M

      12zNAM rain totals:

      http://mag.ncep.noaa.gov/NCOMAGWEB/appcontroller?prevPage=Param&MainPage=index&image=&page=Param&cycle=04%2F20%2F2012+12UTC&rname=PRECIP+PARMS&pname=precip_ptot&pdesc=&model=NAM&area=NAMER&cat=MODEL+GUIDANCE&fcast=084&areaDesc=North+America+-+US+Canada+and+northern+Mexico&prevArea=NAMER&currKey=model&returnToModel=&imageSize=M

      1. Oh, I hope I’m 100 % wrong. Just yesterday, 2 acres of the marsh not too far behind our neighborhood were burnt in a brush fire. So, I’d love to see a couple inches of rain.

        Reasons:

        1) I’m assuming the heaviest rain will fall on and to the west of the track of the low. I believe the low is going up through Long Island and towards western CT. I am a bit confused as to why so much rain is projected to the east of the track. Maybe the deepness of the trof causing a tropical connection overrunning the cooler surface air coming in on Sunday.

        2) With the surface low going west of eastern New England, I think the precip may shut off more quickly than the models show.

        3) I can’t recall one storm providing so much precip over a large area. Surely, when a storm has stalled or many low pressures have trained over a front, our region has seen episodes of 8 to 10 inches….but, I think this low is moving and it’s one storm.

        4) .5 to .8 is a decent slug of water, 2 to 3 inches is an amazing amount of water over a large area. I’m skeptical and again hope to be quite wrong.

    1. I should be ashamed. I’m sorry we aren’t watching for snow right now. But since we Re not bring on the rain.

  30. 100th celebration at Fenway was a bust. I am so disappointed I’m almost ready to say revamp the park. That’s almost charlie 🙂 🙂 🙂

    1. I Totally understand your valid points, memory’s, history, etc I just ready to make memories is a newer bigger Fenway park, again always enjoy chatting 🙂

  32. TK and Tom,
    Harvey just called you out on the air. He said that you guys will be wrong on your rainfall amounts. His words not mine 🙂

  33. A Beneficial soaking but not a drought buster is the way I see it.
    1-4 inches of rain most in the west least in the east.

  34. There was a massive brush fire yesterday in Dedham so any rain will help. Let’s take what we get and be happy about it 🙂

    1. Agree. 100%. There was a large one behind my daughters house and news never mentioned it. Not good when they are common enough not to mention

  35. This will lower the fire threat and the pollen count. I know a lot of people are having a tough go of it with the high pollen count and the lack of rain to bring it down.

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