Unsettled Midweek, Hot Friday, Decent Weekend

148 Comments

6:20PM

A frontal system will amble its way across New England during the next day and a half, with humidity and a chance of showers and thunderstorms through the first half of Thursday. A sliver of high pressure will dry it out a bit later Thursday into Friday, rain-wise, not so much humidity-wise, though it won’t be oppressive at least. The high pressure area will be offshore, and between it and an approaching cold front Friday it will heat up. This cold front will move through late Friday night and early Saturday with a shower and thunderstorm threat, and then should take most of its energy offshore over the weekend. A trough dropping into the Great Lakes should remain far enough west of New England to keep most of its influence away, leaving us with a weekend that will probably turn out warmer and less wet than advertised by most media outlets.

Forecast for eastern MA, southern NH, and RI…

TONIGHT: Variably cloudy. Isolated showers and a chance of thunderstorms. Humid. Lows in the 60s. Wind S-SW under 10 MPH.

WEDNESDAY: Mostly cloudy. Scattered showers and thunderstorms. Humid. Highs 80-85, upper Cape Cod & Islands. Wind SW 5-15 MPH.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT: Mostly cloudy. Numerous showers and a chance of thunderstorms. Humid. Lows 65-70. Wind SW 5-10 MPH becoming variable.

THURSDAY: Variably cloudy. Scattered to isolated showers and thunderstorms mostly through early afternoon. Highs 81-86 except 75-80 Cape Cod & Islands. Wind variable 5-15 MPH.

FRIDAY: Partly cloudy. Chance of showers and thunderstorms at night. Low 64. High 88.

SATURDAY: Partly sunny. Chance of showers and thunderstorms in the morning. Isolated thunderstorms in the afternoon. Low 64. High 82.

SUNDAY: Partly cloudy. Low 64. High 84.

MONDAY: Mostly cloudy. PM rain/thunderstorms. Low 66. High 80.

148 thoughts on “Unsettled Midweek, Hot Friday, Decent Weekend”

  1. TK, thank you. Weekend sounding a little better.

    Read today that the MJO might be setting up for a more hurricane favorable pattern, though not sure about how much certainty there is in what I read. Seems to be one low out there in the Atlantic that might soon become at least subtropical.

    1. The MJO may be in a favorable pattern but theres so much wind shear from the constant fronts and troughs coming off the east coast into the Atlantic where many of the systems typically develop this time of year. Add in the dry air coming off the African Sahara and some dry air in parts of the Carribbean and you have very quiet tropics

  2. TK’s model has a mind of it’s own when comparing to other forecasts, for this weekend especially.
    We’ll see what mother nature has to say.

  4. I hope that TK’s Monday forecast changes. The media outlets have been advertising nice, cool dry air and sunny skies for that day.

  5. nice weather going down to the cape last full week of summer vaca but will not be going any where near the water on the national sea shore. Greath white sharks. but i will be going down there to find one. (if possible) 🙂

    1. Matt, have yourself a fun and safe vacation on the Cape. Enjoy the sun, sand and water if you’re feeling brave! I’m going down in September, but plan to swim in the safety of the ocean front pool. I’ll venture in the ocean just deep enough so that I can still see what’s swimming around me feet! ha!!! Wow, I remember when I’d spend half the day swimming in the ocean way out over my head and my biggest worry was a jelly fish sting, certainly not dinner for a shark! For real… have a blast!!! And of course, I hope the weather cooperates 🙂

      1. oh i plan on swimming just not over on the national sea shore or harbor beaches of of chatham ill be going on the bay side.

  6. A few days ago Barry B. mentioned a pattern change for us coming up next week. A good strong Canadian air mass resulting a fall-like weather pattern. Is this forecast still in the cards? I’m just not quite ready to let go of summer yet, although Autumn is a beautiful time of year!

    1. Not as much as I did when Filene’s and Macy’s were still there! But, I am familiar with the area. Anything I can help you with?

        1. I just landed a huge project there. Three retail buildings, one being 5 stories high. Eventually Wegman’s will be there as well.

            1. If I’m not mistaken the Capital Grill is just about next door. Overrated IMHO ! And the Atrium Mall which I heard was struggling is just west of where you’ll be.

              1. Yes, the capital grill is right next door. There is another development going up across the street as well.

  10. This is just round one of showers and thunderstorms. I have not seen any severe thunderstorm warnings with this batch but a lot of lightning and heavy rain. We get a break and I would not be surprised if some areas see in SNE see some breaks of sunshine which on a day like today is self destructing sunshine since it will further destablize the atmosphere. Then later today we watch the POTENTIAL for strong to possibly locally severe thunderstorms. SPC has placed a good part of SNE in the slight risk zone today. I am thinking the biggest threats with the second round the heavy rain, vivid lightning, and gusty winds. Thunderstorm Index at a 2 since there is the threat of some severe weather but nothing widespread.
    On Friday late afternoon and night we may do this all over again with another front coming through. This is not going to be a boring stretch of weather for us.

    1. Jimmy, what do make of this the Bosotn area, posted by the NWS?
      ACTIVITY COULD PERSIST FOR A WHILE INTO THE EVENING…ESPECIALLY EASTERN HALF OF AREA. IN ADDITION…INCREASING VERTICAL WIND SHEAR WITH 35 TO 40 KT MID LEVEL JET MAY INCREASE RISK OF SVR TSTMS EASTERN PORTION THIS EVENING.

      1. Hi Shotime…. What that statement is telling me is if more activity fires later today as it travels to the eastern
        parts of SNE they don’t expect a martime influence which you get there that a lot of the times and weakens these lines
        of storms because thunderstorms hate stable airmasses. Another thing there is just enough shear that could provide
        the ability for these storms to be on the strong to locally severe side. As I saide earlier I don’t see this as a big severe
        weather threat. Biggest threats heavy rain, vivid lightning, and gusty winds.

      1. There is nothing I can do when I have the screens in. We have out door furniture and rug in the screen house so it would be too bad. I have also installed all weatherproof electrical boxes and switches so that’s not a concern.

        1. We have the same except have tile on the floor which makes it not too bad to mop up. We’ve never had problems with it raining in since the exposed (screen) sides face south and east but this year many more storms are coming from the south.

          Thanks Coastal

  13. Worst part has passed but still moderate rain and some rumbles of thunder. Dark enough still to need the lights on in each room.

  14. This is the warm front coming through right now. The cold front still back to the west and I am noticing the clear skies of western parts of SNE and it looks like that clearing trend is heading eastward which is not good on a day like today because the more self destructing sunshine we see the more the atmosphere destablizes and gives the potential for the strong to possibly locally severe thunderstorm.

  15. Rain has lightened up in North Attleboro. Got .96 in just about an hour. Alot of thunder and lightning during that time as well.

  16. Blue sky starting to show through. We had a peak at sun a minute ago – still more clouds by far than blue

  17. Found 2 dead birds this morning, one in the yard and one in the driveway. Neither showed any evidence of injury that I could see. I wonder if the recent mosquito sprayings could have caused this? Has anyone else in and around the spraying areas noticed a rise in dead wildlife with no apparent cause? I sure hope it’s not from the spraying, the intent was not to literally kill 2 birds with one stone…

    1. One sign of west nile in the area is also finding dead birds. They die when infected with the virus. Did you report them? At this point they probably are not paying attention to reports but….

  18. I can’t stress how happy I am it’s football season, the thing is even If the redsox were good I’d still be anxiously waiting for the Patriots, sun angle is down to 14 59 which is the same as mid to late April, I can tell already the sun isn’t as strong and some cooker mornings early next week will also make me smile, I’m already becoming happy 🙂

      1. Something you will never, ever, ever hear from me. I can guarantee it. Although, other than the excessive humidity last weekend, I don’t mind the heat either. I just find the cold easier to tolerate.

  19. Just now waiting to see what the second round of showers and storms has in store for us later today. I see there is a severe thunderstorm warning on Long Island right now and to me the atmosphere is churned up just enough that if a trigger happens it could spark some strong to locally severe storms.
    AccuWeather winter outlook for 12-13 above normal snowfall from SNE down to Mid Atlantic. I hope that happens but I still feel the winter snowfall will be below normal but not as much as last year and temps will average above normal but not as much as last year.

    2. I don’t. we get nailed this year with the works. people will be wishing that they did not wish this summer away.

  20. Absoultely Vicki any sunshine will add fuel to thunderstorm development. An interesting I noticed with the severe thunderstorm on Long Island its throwing high cloud cover to parts of western CT.

  21. Blue sky here in Plymouth. Just about to get out of my office for a bit to warm up. This place is like the damn artic!!!

  22. Update from the SPC and slight risk area now only has CT and RI in it. I still would not rule a strong to locally severe storm in MA.

    1. I noticed on doppler radar a lot of spotty storms out in ENY moving northeasterly towards VT and maybe NH. Some storms in Western MA, too. They all seem to be moving rather slow. Not good if there are heavy rains involved. Bright and sunny here in Sudbury – barely a cloud in the sky. NWS hasn’t updated since around 10 this morning – wonder if there’s a cap in place over parts of MA.

        1. That’s true, North! Glad you are home now and enjoyed your trip to Toronto! If you had been driving in the heavy rains we had around here this morning, that wouldn’t have been fun. I was out driving in the heavy rain this morning. Not fun.

        2. I’m also glad you are back and had a fun and safe trip! You went up in bad enough weather – sure don’t need it in both directions!

          1. Thanks Rainshine and Vicki. We had a lot of fun! We took a drive down to Niagara Falls on Monday, which was the only totally sunny day. It was amazing. Each time I see them, I can’t believe the power of the falls and what an amazing site they are. Yesterday’s ride was uneventful, besides a lone thunderstorm near Kingston, Ontario before we crossed the border. We left at 11 and were home at 9:30 and we even stopped for an hour or so for lunch.

              1. Yes, I go across the border north of Watertown. Much easier there. There isn’t usually much of a wait.

  23. NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/…
    145 PM UPDATE…
    ATMOSPHERE TRYING TO RECHARGE AFTER MORNING CONVECTION. SPC
    MESOANALYSIS SHOWS MLCAPES UP TO 1000 J/KG AND WIDELY SCT SHOWERS
    HAVE DEVELOPED ACROSS INTERIOR NEW ENGLAND. AS FURTHER
    DESTABILIZATION TAKES PLACE EXPECT COVERAGE OF SHOWERS/TSTMS TO
    INCREASE. 0-6KM SHEAR AND MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES ARE WEAK WHICH
    SHOULD INITIALLY LIMIT INTENSITY OF ANY STORMS…BUT TOWARD 00Z AS
    SHORTWAVE ENERGY APPROACHES LAPSE RATES AND SHEAR ARE EXPECTED TO
    INCREASE WHICH MAY LEAD TO A FEW STRONG OR POSSIBLY SEVERE STORMS.

  24. What I find interesting about the AccuWeather 2012-13 forecast map is that if you take it verbatim, there will be above normal snowfall from the Mass. Pike southward to the Mid-Atlantic and “normal” everywhere else northward. There has been suggestion that this upcoming winter could be similar to 2009-10. We will see one way or the other. Thanks for bringing this to our attention Jimmy! 🙂

    http://www.accuweather.com/en/weather-news/snow-for-i-95-corridor-northeast-winter/69820

    1. Hi Philip… I hope that happens and we get some good Noreaster’s this winter. Last winter was one for the snow haters this
      one hopefully will be one for all the snowlovers and skiers.

    1. I humbly thank you. I make a lot of booboos. I just feel “somewhat” confident in going against them this time.

  26. Clouds popping here – with VERY slightly grey moving in from west where they were all perfectly white

    1. If they are puffy yet grey, you are probably looking at cumulus clouds that are in a shadow cast from advancing high and middle clouds above them. They would appear white if the sun were shining brightly on them. 🙂

      The high & middle clouds are blowing off of storms in the NYC area.

      1. Now,that is wayyyy cool information. Thank you TK. My 5 yr old grandson is learning cloud. He can identify cumulus and altocumulus and cirrus at the moment. I can’t wait to tell him this

    2. Unusual to a point, but not completely so.

      Note the latitude. Basically this storm got labeled a depression later than might usually take place, however the system is on a natural re-curve path, and NWS feels that conditions support it being a TS for a good part of the path after re-curve.

      I think these systems are running into lack of support in the tropics, typical of the ENSO phase we are in.

  28. Jeremy Reiner on his 6:00 pm newscast was discussing El Nino and he hinted to keep your snow shovels handy this upcoming winter. 🙂

    1. Can’t tell that just by El Nino though. Some El Nino winters end up mild and wet with more rain than snow. PDO, QBO, solar cycle, along other things, all come into play.

      1. This time last year everyone was saying it would be a very snowy winter. I just don’t trust long range like that but I won’t mind if I’m wrong

      2. I agree. They say a weak el nino is more snow, and a strong one is less snow. Who knows. But i agree there is more than that to consider. Harvey had a guy on last fall, he nailed it. He came back on this spring and said the only thing he did not see , were all those real warm days we had. He also nailed this summer, calling for a dry hot summer.

  29. It appears that the system with the warning in SW MA is in the same place it was about an hour ago give or take a little

      1. I saw that too. No wonder

        We’ve had a fair amount of rain recently but all as a downpour. We had .74 this morning alone

                1. Do I hear a round 2? Eek I have an all day phone conference starting early. I’ll be sleeping on the computer.

              2. I have thunder and lightning too now. Looks like we both have it looking at the BZ radar on TV38, Todd just showed. Long rolling thunder too. Is that what yours is like?

    1. The only factors I have really considered about the winter ahead is El Nino and near solar max which in combo tend to deliver mild winters overall. It’s really too early to say on snowfall. As you know a winter does not have to be cold to be snowy. Too many factors to consider and the jury is out.

      Personally I think now is too early for a solid winter forecast, but if AccuWeather wants to go for it, I wish them the best of luck. 🙂

  34. It appears a widespread .25-.50 of rain will fall across eastern Mass, if you live west and north of 495 you won’t get more than a spot shower 🙂

  35. John just to clarify the point about a dry summer, since June 1st we are above average in precip. Who was the guy?

    1. Forget his name. I guess he is well known in the field. He did say this summer would be hot. Seems like were getting more rain now hadi. I would say summer has been dry for most part, and hot.

    1. Me too. Goodnight! Seems like the TV Mets are calling for this to still be heavy over NE Ma in the early morning (3am-6am). .16 here so far. Rain has gotten heavier with the thunderstorm we are currently having.

      1. Looks like a pretty solid line just north of the Pike from Worcester to Waltham…TK you should be getting in the action soon. It doesn’t look to moving too fast either.

  38. this thunderstorm is right over my house basically lightning litterally about 500 ft away from us. its loud

  40. Well, between a cricket or cicada right outside our kitchen window and the thunder and rain – don’t expect much sleep tonight.

    The precip. is basically sitting over the same area – we have had mod.-heavy rain w/thunder and lightning for almost 2 hrs. Flood advisories come and go saying precip. is pivoting over the same area w/slow-moving thunderstorms. The area of precip. is basically moving, albeit slowly northeasterly but some of the storm cells are actually moving south. Whatever, nothing is moving much. Latest radar seems to show precip. area actually growing. Try and have a good night, all!

    1. I sure hope you were able to sleep, rainshine. It was an interesting night to be sure. I don’t like leaving the window AC’s and ceiling fans on during a storm so when I thought the storm had passed by, I got up to turn them on only to have to turn them back off a few minutes later. I finally got to laughing with all the ups and downs. Amazingly my husband slept through the entire event.

  41. Negative NAO, Great Lakes to western New England trof, repeated disturbances dropping out of central Canada, into New England….. and now last night, a pretty good precip producer………hope this isnt being all used up in August. 🙂

  42. Yesterday we had 1.54 inch of rain and today we had .58 Sun coming out now. Was still raining here when I woke up, however.

  43. Halfway thru August (data from Taunton NWS climate page)

    Logan : +3.6F, +1.15 inches of precip
    Hartford : +4.2F, +0.83 inches
    Providence : +2.6F, +1.53 inches
    Worcester : +4.1F, +3.23 inches !!!

    If this morning’s long range GFS is fairly accurate, then the last week of August is going to be very warm as the trof retrogrades west and the jet stream lifts north in the eastern third to half of the US. Looking forward to see if there’s consistency on this in the coming days. The non weather reasoning for this to be correct is that school starts Tues. Aug. 28th and, of course, its going to be hot !

    1. Hi Tom…that date seems awfully early. I don’t understand why your district can’t start school after Labor Day like most.

      1. Hi Philip.

        I’d say it started about 4 or 5 yrs ago. I dont recall if it was the superintendent/school committee who brought up the idea or the teacher’s union. Anyway, we were given a chance to vote on it and then the school committee approved the earlier start time.

        My wife is in agreement with you. She doesnt care for it. On the other hand, I like it because I feel like those 3 days take some of the pressure off of having snow days. There’s rarely any talk in our town of having to give up vacation time, etc. Once it hits about June 1st, the students are done and I love getting out in mid June, as I feel like I have the run of New England for about a week to 10 days while everyone else is still in school.

        1. We started it in Framingham years ago when my kids were still in school because with a few new holidays added it pushed the year longer if we had snow days. I always felt as if it ended summer early but agree with Tom that late in June and near July is very late.

          My grandson starts kindergarten this year so they had to take the first week at the beach because he will start during what will be our second week.

          1. Thats great Vicki ! Is he looking forward to school ? My older daughter, entering grade 3, has been calling all her friends this morning to see what teacher they got assigned to.

            1. He is excited. He has not had any pre-school experience for reasons that were out of his parents control so we shall see. They switched to full day K here and my daughter is worried.

              I can picture your daughter calling to find out who got which teacher. I sure remember what an exciting time that was.

              1. Plymouth had been going back before Labor Day and for some reason they are going back after this year. I hope they aren’t assuming we are having a snowless winter again. The only day we had to make up last year was the first day of school when we had no power due to Hurricane Irene.

            2. Tom did not know are kids were the same age. My son also going into 3rd grade. Last week the letter came letting him know who his teacher was. All of his pals were calling each other. In marshfield we always went back after labor day.

  45. For anyone who drives up Rt 3, my son-in-law has to be in Foxboro for an interview at 7:30 next Tuesday (he’ll be driving up from Humarock). I’m thinking he needs to leave extra early or will be trapped in the rush hour but thought I’d check to see what time people think he needs to allot – thank you!

    1. Rt 3 can be funny and it is definitely best to play it safe. I often travel from Plymouth up to Foxboro/Medfield/Waltham for work and most times the traffic flows fine until you get close to the Braintree split. But from there it is very unpredictable so I would give it at least an hour and a half to be safe.

      1. Thank you, Sue. He tends to get lost and thought I was nuts when I suggested he give himself 2 hours. I always figure it’s better to get there and relax with a cup of coffee and some breakfast than it is to get stuck – especially for a job interview.

        1. I am sure leaving by 6 am will give him plenty of time as the traffic shouldn’t be too heavy yet. I agree that it is better that he be there early rather than be stressed watching the clock while stuck in traffic. Nothing worse than that feeling!

  49. I’m looking forward to seeing rainfall totals in Maine. The radar shows very heavy rain across most of Maine just rotating in place, with the entire rainshield moving only very slowly.

  51. Summer is not over and never goes quietly. Will still have our fair share of heat and humidity before fall starts. To me were making the turn and heading towards the final stretch with the average high temps starting to drop and the days are becoming shorter.

  52. You can put thoughts of the feel of Fall on hold, because the next 2 weeks are likely to feature near to above normal temperatures for late August, and also will tend to be humid more often than not.

    As for the coming weekend, things are still looking as expected yesterday, largely rain-free over most of the forecast area. No changes will be made to the forecast in the next update.

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