The Week Ahead: Christmas Snow For Most, 2 Storms To Follow

303 Comments

8:48AM

My focus on this entry and forecast is for the first of 3 likely events upcoming, the first being the Christmas snow/mix event, the second being the post-Christmas or midweek storm, the third being a storm threat on the weekend.

Cold air is in place. It may not be frigid, but it’s cold enough to support snow in most of southern New England when a low pressure wave comes along from the southwest later tonight and Christmas Day. It will be a progressive low pressure wave, moving right along, but will produce enough precipitation to put down anywhere from a coating to 2 inches of snow and locally up to 3 inches in a few areas. Enough mild air will be involved to change snow to sleet/freezing rain (cold air still trapped near surface) over interior southeastern MA and parts of RI, and possibly a period of liquid rain along the South Coast and Cape Cod, so any accumulation there may be very limited.

Hardly a break early Wednesday before a stronger low pressure area roars up the East Coast Wednesday night and Thursday. This should start as snow for much of southern New England except a mix/rain South Coast, but this time the track of the storm looks closer, and that combined with a stronger east wind and milder air aloft will change any snow/mix to rain over the region. Some accumulation of snow is possible before the rain, however, and I’ll put some #’s on this as it gets just a touch closer.

Another break later Thursday and Friday as cold air comes back, setting the stage for another storm threat on the weekend. Timing is suspect, but an early leaning is more for late Saturday or Sunday, and with colder air in place the odds favor snow. I also have a slight leaning toward this one being a little further south and therefor being a less prolific precipitation producer. But again this is far away and there will be many details to work out.

In the mean time, the forecast for eastern MA, southern NH, and RI…

TODAY: Sunshine, some high clouds moving in late. Highs 35-40. Wind N up to 10 MPH.

TONIGHT – CHRISTMAS EVE: Clouding up. Snow developing from southwest to northeast, mainly after midnight, mixing with sleet/rain/freezing rain near the South Coast. Lows 25-30. Wind light NE.

TUESDAY – CHRISTMAS DAY: Cloudy with snow except freezing rain/sleet/rain RI, SE MA, and Cape Cod, in the morning. Clearing in the afternoon. Snow accumulation from a coating to 2 inches but a 3 inch snow amount possible in a few locations. Highs 33-38. Wind N to NW 5-15 MPH.

WEDNESDAY: Sun then clouds. Snow to rain overnight. Low 23. High 38.

THURSDAY: Cloudy with rain morning. Breaking clouds afternoon. Low 32. High 41.

FRIDAY: Mostly sunny. Low 22. High 33.

SATURDAY: Partly sunny. Low 17. High 33.

SUNDAY: Cloudy. Chance of snow. Low 20. High 30.

303 thoughts on “The Week Ahead: Christmas Snow For Most, 2 Storms To Follow”

  2. Thanks TK.

    Hoping for snow for everyone in the Boston area. Looking forward to a lot of snow in Maine. Lets what guidance says throughout the next 36 hours.

  4. Thank you TK and I want to wish all of my fellow weather nuts a very happy and safe holiday! Bring on the snow!!!

      1. If the 12z is colder, that’s when the trend begins…Weekend storm looks much colder today too. I’m almost concerned that that one grazes us.

  9. merry christmas everybody. 🙂

    light snow event up to 2 inches then a rain event. then dry and colder

      1. for my area in billerica around 128 to 495. outside will see a better shot perhaps but i want more consistancy.

  10. I remember when I was younger at school they would give us “reindeer food” to take home and put on the ground on Chistmas Eve. (It was really just sparkles or something, haha) And at night on Christmas Eve I’d be so excited to sprinkle it on the ground. It wasn’t even because I thought the reindeer would come, or because I was excited for santa. I just loved how it looked on the snow 😀

    3. My daughter got that in 1997 and it was perfect because we had a giant snowstorm on December 23 and a deep snowcover still there on Christmas Eve. On Christmas morning, you could see where the reindeer had eaten their food leaving only a few bits of glitter behind, and where Santa’s runners had left tracks in the yard when he landed there to let the reindeer feed, and big boot prints in the snow when he had gotten out of his sleigh to check on the harnesses while the reindeer were eating. 🙂

    1. Hadi,

      Models in general are looking better. I like the no gaps model its got the storm right over the benchmark and all snow in Boston. I think its the least reliable model but fun to take a look at. I will try to post a link.

      1. This is the start of a snowier scenario in Boston. Not ready to etch anything in stone but there will be at least some accumulation in Boston. Trends are MUCH colder…NAM still not credible this far out however.

  12. Merry Christmas and Happy Holidays to all. I only post once in a while but it is great reading all of your posts, daily. I feel like I know you all. TK thanks for this great web-site. I am hoping for about two inches in the Merrimack Valley of NH on Christmas, maybe 2-3 inches of snow before a change over on Wednesday night, and next weekends storm has me a little concerned that it will be more of a south shore and cape storm. Time will tell, I hope everyone has a wonderful day tomorrow.

    1. I don’t think we’ll see that much of a southern solution. That’s even a little outside the benchmark. I’d love to see that though:)

  14. I think there’s going to be extreme disappointment with the 12/26-27 storm.

    I respectfully submit that I dont see colder or further south and east in the models. I see an initial low going up the eastern Ohio Valley, with a redevelopment that travels well NW of the benchmark. I see thicknesses at 850 mb that show it too mild to snow fairly far inland during the heaviest precip and a strong influx of mild air from the ocean at the boundary layer that has the potential to work well inland as well.

    1. I wouldn’t be so sure. i’m leaning with you but my guard is up on locking in on a warm solution. Models are trending east. Not just the NAM. The GFS and EURO also have trended more east and colder. Not to mention, the storm is now on land so the models will have a better handle on solutions vs a few days ago when the storm was still in the pacific. I wouldn’t commit yet. That wouldn’t be prudent.

      1. Interesting the NWS out of Upton NY was saying for a few days ago that you are saying where the models would
        have a tough time handling this storm system until it comes into the west coast.

        1. Precisely. That is why I reserved comment regarding the post-xmas storm until it was on land. Now the models will have an easier time converging on a solution. I think we are seeing a colder trend. Will it be enough for Boston? Too soon to say but it will be much closer than METS have anticipated. If trends continue colder over the next 24 hours, I will then be more concerned regarding heavy snow for Boston. It’s not a slam dunk by any means.

          1. Which is why my UGH meter was only at a 2 over the weekend. Right now its at a 4. The models will go back and forth and you can’t get
            discouraged when you have a storm way out in the future because of a bad model run.

            1. You got it JJ. I’d still keep that meter pretty low unless the models trend the other direction again over the course of the next 1-2 days.

  15. All the snow talk reminds me of getting up at 5am as a kid to listen to Gary LaPierre on WBZ read the long list of School cancellations. Needham – where I grew up almost never cancelled school. But we hoped……happy holidays all.

  16. Your probably right Tom, but the nam is further south but still not even close to snow in Boston, but there is a trend. No disappointment up here in Maine :). I would expect WSW posted by tomorrow night.

  18. Boy, the 12z NAM is plotting a ton of qpf. Even if overdone, it’s still a lot. We need this about 75-100 miles further east and bingo.

  19. I think we get front end wintry precipitation more so the interior with the next storm system. Areas near and at the coast quick mix to rain. This is not etched in stone and waiting to see what the 12z GFS and EURO say.

  23. That 3-6” before the changeover doesnt sound too crazy now! Still a good 60 hrs away though, so we’ll see

    1. That new years storm concerns me as well. I do think we feel effects from that storm. Again, way too far out to discount it. I don’t think it misses us completely and definitely a colder scenario this time. Let’s deal with the post xmas storm first and then we’ll get a better handle on new years storm.

  31. I may not be reading it right but it looks like the low is hugging the coast. This is still a shift on what this model was saying a few days ago taking the low west of us.

    1. The low moves north and then takes a northeast turn. This is a scenerio in which we could see a few inches of snow on the front end, rain in the middle and then back to a few more inches of snow on the back end of the storm. Another 75 miles to the east, we stay all snow and alot of it. Totally plausible and sometimes occurs during nowcasting when models don’t even pick it up. We’ve seen that lack of change over from snow to rain before where boston remains on the cold side of things through the duration.

  32. Hello all. Happy Holidays!!

    Some thoughts after looking over all of the charts.

    1st for tonight, tomorrow. I see 2-4 inches South of the pike, D-2 inches points North, except some mix or changeover far SE and South Coast.

    Wed-Thurs. Very interesting. I’m going to bring up something Hadi was saying all along about the High to the North. It looks to me as if the High to the North
    is going to force this thing to drift just South of SNE, trending more so with
    each run. I think Inland areas are in for it. Coastal near Boston, I think is going to
    see some snow, changing over to rain, but then changing back to snow. How quickly this occurs will be the trick. Stay tuned to future model runs. This is not over yet. 😀

    1. Completely agree OS. Nice interp. Why do you think 2-4 inches tonight? That’s a bit more robust than I see, unless of course you’re thinking there will be a coastal front that sets up along the rain/snow line.

      1. Even though the NAM is known for overcooking qpf, I just
        think that this time it will be correct.

        Oh well, I’ll probably be wrong yet again. 😀

        1. Do you have any meteorological reason as to why you’re guessing 2-4 inches other than what the NAM says? I think a spot 3″ amount is likely but a general 1-2 inch snowfall seems likely with the exception for SS, Cape and Islands where a coating is more likely. I just wish this disturbance was more organized and slowed town a tad. Perhaps a coastal front sets shop. That is very difficult for the models to pick up and can bring down more snow than anticipated. We will have to watch for this along rt 24 and perhaps are far back as the I 95 corridor, just north and west of the snow/rain line.

        1. What do you see for Boston tonight. A coating would be best ford me but not sure on that. Hope it will end early.

    1. Yes, Indeed. Happy Holiday to you as well. Hopefully, we’ll pull something out of it all and it won’t be a total bust.

  34. Never give up when we are in winter, I think we need to be steady over the next 24 hrs and see what we might have. Too soon to jump either way but for sure it’s a trend. Now I for one don’t want a trend bc I am sitting pretty but I will take a compromise on a little less snow here if it means snow for all my fellow bloggers 🙂

  36. Level 1 snow event for Christmas.
    Second storm system COULD be in more than a level 1 snow event particularly in the interior. Waiting to see what the 12z EURO has to say.

  37. 12z NAM…lots of sleet for interior….all rain boston

    12z GFS quick from end slug of probably 6″ of snow interior…..quick sleet then all rain for boston.

    C’mon….tug it more SE King.

    1. That low level jet bringing in easterly winds will warm the boundary layer quickly for boston and eastern coast line unless that storm nudges more east about 75 miles.

        1. Buoy A0102 – Mass. Bay/Stellwagen
          (44029) 42.52N 70.57W
          Last Updated: Dec 24 2012, 11:04 am EST
          Mon, 24 Dec 2012 11:04:00 -0500
          Temperature: 36.1 °F (2.3 °C)
          Wind: West at 13.4 MPH (11.66 KT)
          Wind Chill: 27 F (-3 C)
          Visibility: 1.60 miles
          MSL Pressure: 1016.1 mb
          Water Temperature: 47.1 °F (8.4 °C)
          Wave Height: 0.5 m (1.64 ft)
          Dominant Period: 3 sec

          BOSTON 16 NM East of Boston, MA
          (44013) 42.346N 70.651W
          Last Updated: Dec 24 2012, 10:50 am EST
          Mon, 24 Dec 2012 10:50:00 -0500
          Temperature: 36.1 °F (2.3 °C)
          Dewpoint: 20.8 °F (-6.2 °C)
          Wind: West at 15.7 MPH (13.61 KT)
          Wind Chill: 27 F (-3 C)
          MSL Pressure: 1017.1 mb
          Water Temperature: 47.1 °F (8.4 °C)
          Wave Height: 0.5 m (1.64 ft)
          Dominant Period: 3 sec
          Average Period: 3.1 sec
          Mean Wave Direction: West (270 °)

          1. Could even see an east-southeasterly wind direction before turning east. We need a northeast wind to have a shot. Should the storm drift a bit more to the south, winds should turn from the east to the northeast and then as the storm passes the benchmark, wind should become northerly, turning the wet snow to a powdery snow as temps drop into the upper 20’s. Will this happen? Unlikely but looking more possible this morning. Let’s have a look at the 12z EURO.

  40. Thanks, TK! And Happy Holidays everyone! I am looking forward to a white Christmas. And I am also looking forward to the parade of storms for the week. Certainly looks interesting.

  42. I would love to mention everybody by name here but I’m afraid to forget anybody and also this is for the readers who just read but do not post comments:

    Thank you all for being here!

    Happy Holidays, Merry Christmas, and Happy New Year!!!

  44. I believe between 1:30-2:00pm
    This next storm system looking colder lets see if it continues that way.

  47. Just saw the 12z ECMWF. It is slightly warmer than the 12z GFS, but with more QPF.

    At Boston 12z GFS produces about 1.25″ and it supports some front end snow. Sorry backend snow is something that I rarely bite on it. Usually it is a model fantasy. 12Z ECMWF is about 1.75″ melted but at Boston surface temps are never below 35 and critical thickness values remain are warm at 500, 850, and 1000.

    ECMWF is warmer than GFS inland. Springfield never drops below 32 and its critical thickness values remain warm throughout the duration of the event. Signals more mixed precip than snow and a transition to rain even inland. Much lighter QPF their about .75.

    Not saying this is the solution, just what the 12z ECMWF showing. I will try to give some thoughts later today, but mostly like I will be absent from posting until later Christmas or the morning after Christmas.

    Merry Christmas everyone!!

  48. I’m nearly certain of storm #1 now for tonight-tomorrow. There may actually be a secondary band of snow that generates along and north of the Mass Pike late morning to midday that seals the deal of 1 or 2 inches (locally 3) in most of these areas.

    I’m well aware of the slightly colder trend on the runs for storm #2 but I am hesitant to jump too far on this at the moment. Something is telling me to worry a bit though. 🙂

    I think #3 is going to be outside the benchmark and a light snowfall over the weekend. Many days to figure that out.

    GFS is a decent run but only out through about January 5-6. The end of the run is bad. We lay down some snow in the next 10 days and then go very cold and dry.

    I am expecting “near to below normal snow” for the winter. It has to snow sometimes to get this to verify. We’re about to start seeing it.

    1. Wow. I completely agree with your thinking.

      General 1-3 snows tonight

      Post Christmas storm still looks to warm but trending colder and getting too close for comfort

      Weekend storm looks like a grazing but definitely cold enough for snow. However, that storm is too far out to even consider locking in on a solution.

      Merry Xmas TK!

      1. Same to you!

        I have a feeling that a coastal front may become a major player in the midweek storm.

    1. Not to put words into TK’s mouth but he is likely thinking 1-2 inches with isolated 3 inch amounts. The 3″ will be the exception, not the rule;) But it is Xmas, so perhaps something magical could happen.

      1. Its not magical for me. I’m being taken away from my family on Christmas, and to boot have a housefull of guests coming to my house where I won’t be. Sounds like fun.

        1. I feel your pain John. It’s one thing to know you are scheduled to work on Xmas (or any other family holiday) but to left wondering is not fun. I’ve been on both sides of the coin (scheduled to work on Xmas Eve and Xmas day when I was bartending back in the early 90s and also having to give up a family vacation one summer not too long ago due a major building project which took longer than expected)

        2. I hope you have a great Christmas, John! Growing up in the military, it was never fun when my Dad had silo duty on Christmas. I hope you get to stay at home!

          1. Thanks. The only holiday or should say big one we have worked for snow was new years. It to me that does not matter because we dont do anything on that day. It just bothers me that I may miss tomorrow my son waking up to Santa. Oh well. Just hope to get home early.

    2. I think Boston itself may vary from under 1 inch right at the airport right on the water, to 1-2 inches by the time you get to the western side of the city. Granted it still puts the entire city in the coating to 2 inch range that seems to be a common forecast. I’d be surprised if they got 3. I just don’t think it snows long enough or hard enough to get that in the city. 3 inch amounts would be reserved for inland higher elevations that get into a small amount of banding that may take place during the morning.

  50. Wundermap is messed up. Not showing any snow for tonight/tomorrow AM.
    So, don’t know what to believe for Wed-Thurs where it does show some snow, but
    mostly N&W. One thing Wundermap did, was show MSLP for 3 hour intervals.
    It has the Wed-Thurs system cutting through SE MA and then move ESE to East
    of Chatham. From there to the Gulf of Me. I wonder how much wiggle room there
    is here?

    1. Everytime I see the word “Wundermap” I picture a weather geek dressed in a costume and cape with a weather map on the front. 🙂

        1. Still colder than yesterday’s runs. I’m skeptical. These models have been all over the map for the past 7 days.

  52. Been a nice day today, 41 in Easton now. I don’t see more than a light coating for Xmas morning here. But wait, a winter weather advisory up for northern Bristol?? What?? Are they just issuing that due to holiday travel? Def not advisory level event IMO

  53. I wonder if a little nowcasting is going to happen with this next storm system.
    I still think quick changeover near and at the coast to a burst of wintry precipitation inland before a changeover.

  54. OS, I noticed that on the Wunderground snow maps as well. Showing virtually nothing for tomorrow and seems way underdone for snow accumulation in well inland areas that stay all snow for the midweek storm. Not sure how they derive the snow amounts from the Euro output but it doesn’t seem very accurate.

  57. Of interest, there is an 8% chance of achieving four inches of snow, a 2% chance of receiving eight inches of snow and even a 1% chance of receiving a foot of snow TONIGHT in eastern new england. I’m surprised those chances aren’t 0.000000001% LOL.

  58. Margusity is all amped up for weekend storm. I’m sorry but that has OTS written all over it. We have a better chance wishcasting this mid-week thing only 75 miles east. Is that too much to ask Santa!

    1. I actually think we do see “some” snow from that weekend storm and perhaps a few to several inches. However, we may not get the brunt of it, but if we did, we would see LOTS of snow out of that one. I think there is a small chance it could go OTS all together.

  59. I am taking it one system at a time and going to enjoy the touch of snow overnight into Christmas.
    Next storm system has mess written all over with a rainorama for coast and mixorama going over to rainorama for the interior.

    1. LOL. JJ may I ask how old/young you are? I agree that the next storm looks warmer for ‘now’ but inland areas are going to pick up appreciable snows before it goes over to rainorama;)

      1. Keep in mind Retrac that it’s your King, the EURO that is suggestive is a significant winter storm for southern new england over the weekend while the GFS is less amplified and suppressed a bit further to the south. If the King verifies, Boston is in for it.

        1. You’re right – I’ll yield to the power of the King.

          Thanks for keeping my grounded Alisonarod. Nice to have friends this time of year – tis the season!

  60. I love it everyone’s getting all amped up for storms!!! It’s good to have some excitement let’s keep praying for snow mid week! Merry Christmas Everyone!

    1. Merry Christmas TJ. Just excited to see a blanket of Christmas snow tomorrow morning. My kids will be super happy:) It’s going to add to the Christmas spirit.

  61. Hadi, where’s all the props from everyone else regarding our prediction for a white xmas in SNE about 3 weeks ago?? I think we were the only two who went out on a limb with that one. Of course, I should keep my mouth shut and not jinx it. It’s not written in stone yet 🙂

  62. Well, off to church people. While I will be praying for the less fortunate, I will also pray for the helpless GFS as well……poor GFS..

  63. I will be praying in church tomorrow for a nice snowarama with either the mid week system or weekend system.

  64. Heading up to Rome, NY tomorrow afternoon. In laws received 10 inches of lake effect over the weekend and are forecasted to get 1-2″ tonight and 7″+ from the midweek storm. I’ll report on conditions from up there. Selfishly, I am hoping for the more inland track with the midweek storm to put us in the heavier snow. Any other time it would be the other way around.

    Still feel midweek storm goes over to rain in much of eastern MA, CT, and RI after a few (to perhaps several) inches of slop at the start. No change back to snow at the end. Axis of heaviest snow from eastern Upstate NY to VT, NH, and much of Maine where we’ll see a widespread 6-12″

    Weekend storm holds the most promise for significant snow in eastern SNE if it stays close enough and we can get the Euro to verify!

  66. Mark you are right 🙂

    I am waiting for NWS in grey to update but I am guessing I am looking for around 8-12 inches in Gardnier. Loving the euro for the weekend storm. Can’t mess with the euro. If the euro verifies we are in for over the weekend.

  68. Merry Christmas everyone!

    I stay quiet most of the time here (aside from a few caddy comments towards Charlie…which is all in good fun, Charlie!) but I want to say I appreciate the multitude of comments and opinions expressed. TK, you’ve created a fun, collaborative, friendly environment here – it doesn’t go unnoticed and it’s much appreciated.

    Everyone have a safe, fun holiday!

  69. 18Z NAm has backed off on qpf for tonight/tomorrow.

    ALso, has a more inland track on the main event. Bummer.

    http://mag.ncep.noaa.gov/NCOMAGWEB/appcontroller?page=Image&prevPage=Param&image=..%2FGemPakTier%2FMagGemPakImages%2Fnam%2F20121224%2F18%2Fnam_namer_063_850_temp_mslp_precip.gif&fcast=063&model=NAM&area=NAMER&storm=&areaDesc=North+America+-+US+Canada+and+northern+Mexico&cat=MODEL+GUIDANCE&rname=SFC-LAYER+PARMS&pname=850_temp_mslp_precip&cycle=12%2F24%2F2012+18UTC&imageSize=M&currKey=model&scrollx=0&scrolly=57&nextImage=yes

  71. Will see if other models jump on board that solution or if it was bad run of the NAM. I am not a big fan of the NAM since its more wrong than right.

  72. This is too funny!

    FIRST CALL ON POST CHRISTMAS STORM

    Confidence is now growing here that a significant winter storm will affect the North East, there are still some things to work out but we feel that we are beginning to nail this down, problems still exist in the Eastern sections of Massachusetts and some parts of CT and RI, we are staying conservative for now but must warn that ramping the totals up in these mentioned locations may become necessary.

    Snow will begin overspreading the New England area during Wednesday night and will become very heavy shortly after, Low pressure will move to the Delmarva Peninsula and deepen as it makes the turn to the North East, we are working on narrowing down the track but feel this is likely to be just east of Chatham Massachusetts, this is just along the 40/70 benchmark.

    1. Sorry, That was not I, the above was from New England Weather Works.
      Thought it was in the post, but I just re-read it and it wasn’t in there. 😀

  74. Merry Christmas Everyone !

    As a tradition, we were at my father’s to open a few presents prior to tomorrow. One of his gifts to me was a new shovel ….. so, I’m not sure if thats good or bad. 🙂

    Come on snow tonight !! And hope those N/NE breezes can stay very light to give whatever falls and accumulates (hopefully) a chance to stay on the ground through Christmas morning. The way the coast is shaped, a north wind is still off the ocean for Marshfield.

    Think NAM is much too far west on 12/26-27 and GFS a bit too far east.

    1. Merry Christmas Tom. We have the opposite tradition may mom started with my kids. She had a special gift for Christmas night. We continue to celebrate Christmas night with the NANA present. I love tradition.

  75. 18Z GFS:

    http://mag.ncep.noaa.gov/NCOMAGWEB/appcontroller?page=Image&prevPage=Param&image=..%2FGemPakTier%2FMagGemPakImages%2Fgfs%2F20121224%2F18%2Fgfs_namer_063_850_temp_mslp_precip.gif&fcast=063&model=GFS&area=NAMER&storm=&areaDesc=North+America+-+US+Canada+and+northern+Mexico&cat=MODEL+GUIDANCE&rname=SFC-LAYER+PARMS&pname=850_temp_mslp_precip&cycle=12%2F24%2F2012+18UTC&imageSize=M&currKey=model&scrollx=0&scrolly=0&nextImage=yes

    Still not liking it. just trying to accept it and hope for eastward movement! 😀

    1. If the 12/26-27 storm tracks a bit further west, like the NAM or the 18z GFS, then the upside to this, is I think it means the weekend storm(around 12/30) is not OTS. Conversely, if the 12/26-27 storm edges towards the outer Cape, then its probably a miss next weekend.

      For the first time this season, I think a storm has real potential for snow in
      Boston, maybe even Marshfield and its that 12/30 storm. But to get that, this mid week storm has to not be surpressed SE of the Cape or its an indication that the pattern is already in transition and pushes storm 3 OTS.

      1. I hear what you are saying, even though it is not necessarily so.
        Perhaps so, but doesn’t have to be. Next could edge SE and could still get nailed with the Wknd system.

        BUT given our luck, last season and the way this season is progressing, we get a rainorama with Wed/Thurs system and
        an OTS with weekend system.

        Always keep Watching! 😀 😀

        1. Indeed watching and that has been the way its been going……

          With the milder ocean, I’d like to see a system track over the benchmark in Jan or early Feb, that has a true arctic high to the north, where not only would the coastline get synoptic snows, but maybe ocean enhanced snows if the arctic high could be sending 20F air over 40F to 42F water temps by then. That would be nice !!

  77. BB on ch 4, even at noontime with the 12z GFS in went with a milder scenario for 12/26-27. In the video still on the Ch 4 site, his area of snow is way across northern and western New England. His wintry mix area is pretty much north of most of Mass and most of Mass is rain.

    Now looking at the evening 7 day, temp on Thurs is down to 40F and if my aging eyes see correctly, it says winter storm on Thursday. I dont know whose delivering the weathercast, but I think its a different meassage coming…..nice for consistency, eh ?

  78. NWS in grey saying that 10+ inches is likely for the I95 corridor in Maine and no rain or mixing issues here!!

  79. From NWS in grey

    WITH S/WV TROF IN QUESTION CURRENTLY
    WITHIN THE ROAB NETWORK…IT IS NO SURPRISE THAT BETTER MODEL
    INITIALIZATION HAS HELPED FORM SOME SORT OF CONSENSUS TODAY. WITH
    A LARGE AREA OF THE CWFA FORECAST TO SEE GREATER THAN 10 INCHES OF
    SNOW…INCLUDING MOST IF NOT ALL OF THE I93 AND I89 CORRIDORS AND
    SOME OF THE I95 CORRIDOR…IT CANNOT BE STRESSED ENOUGH THAT
    PEOPLE WITH TRAVEL PLANS ON THU KEEP INFORMED ON THE LATEST
    FORECAST INFORMATION.

    1. I hope this works out for their forecast verification and no one on this blog deserves a big snowstorm more than you Hadi !!

    2. Saw that Matt. I was out looking for Santa but got caught up in the halo. I remember my dad always saying a halo around the moon meant skiers would be happy.

      1. yes very much so and this storm on thursday should please the ski areas greatly good news since im goin skiing new years eve 😀

    1. Just getting home now. Have to assemble a sweet ping pong table for the kids – they better get to sleep.

      I’m really crossing fingers for a double whammy this week! Too good to be true??? Maybe a Christmas week miracle??

      I really respect J.J. as he is not a hype-monger.

      We’ll see.

      Wish me luck with the table as I’m sure I only have half the tools.

  84. Man we had rough last wrapping but much easier this year!! Good luck.

    Double whammy sure would be nice as I get hit up here in maine and back home on Friday just in time for Sunday and a huge football game Sunday night.

  85. if this stomr on thursday goes a tad more east tomorrow and i see it wednesday as well. i will be happy and will beleive it. until then i do not and say anyone inside of 495 will see mainly rain. with a quick burst of wintry mix. but no accumulation

  86. The CPC has the entire east coast bone dry for awhile after the New Year so if that pre-New Year’s snowstorm on Sunday just grazes or goes completely OTS then it is going to only aggravate our precip deficit further which currently stands at -8.90″. 🙁

    For some reason (besides wanting snow) I have a gut feeling that Boston could end up with more snow and frozen precip than expected for the midweek storm, relatively speaking…maybe up to an inch or so? TK, any chance of a somewhat colder solution?

    Have a Merry Christmas Eve everyone! 🙂

  87. Presents are under the tree 🙂

    I hope JJ (ch 4) is really not going on TV saying Worcester has a chance at a foot of snow Wed-Thurs. I guess its in his blog, so…….. If the 0z NAM ever verifies …….

    1. Joe says that his latest info has the storm passing near Nantucket, which probably would make sense giving Worcester a foot. However, I hope he doesn’t put out a snow map on air just yet…waaay too early at this stage IMO.

  88. On Jeremy Reiner’s blog he mentions that it is actually “uncommon” for snow to fall on Christmas Day around here. I have always wondered why Boston’s record for snow on Christmas Day is only 3.3″ set in 1974. I guess we usually have our bigger snows either prior or just after Christmas Day itself…interesting.

  89. To all my weather friends, Merry Christmas!

    Will be up for hours still getting the final presents wrapped and under the tree… Hope to see some flakes soon.

    Enjoy!

    Tom

  90. GFS looks colder again on the 00z run. It also gives Boston and coastal areas a good dumping of snow on the front end before change to rain. Anyone else seeing this?

  92. JJ (WBZ) during the “teaser” at 11 pm just said dusting to 2″ for tomorrow. More to come in a few minutes.

  95. Acemaster,

    Things are looking good. I think if we continue to stay on this trend when the storm hits we maybe in for some surprises.. Also the sat/sun storm looks further west and more than just a grazing but not as intense as the 12z euro. Here’s hoping for a Winter like pattern this week.

    Hope everyone is having a Great Christmas Eve!!! We are just settling down now and will catch up with everyone bright and early tomorrow morning.

  96. Snowing in Coventry, CT as well. Road, driveway, and deck are white. Beautiful Christmas Eve scene.

    North, where in CT are you?

  98. No snow here yet at my moms in Attleboro. Sure feels like it wants to though. Maybe my radar is broken but it looks like the precip in the area now is just south of here and coming down moderately. Then there’s a break, like a huge dry slot as the next area of precip goes to our north and west. If this plays out like its looking on radar, we’ll get a few flakes at the most.

  99. I can’t sleep, too excited for what King Santa will bring on the 00z. Post Xmas storm looks colder. R/S line doesn’t make it past Worcester so maybe joe Joyce’s foot wasn’t that far off. Tough to tell on the per New Years storm. Low at 120hrs off NC/VA coast, then at 144hrs is northeast of NE and an absolute bomb. Can’t tell what is does during those 24 hrs tho.

  100. Merry Christmas, weatherfriends! It has JUST started to snow here in Chelmsford – tiny flakes here and there, but still exciting!

    2. Merry Christmas all! Nice dusting her in CT and still snowing with what feels like some rain too. My daughter woke up right at 6 and got the whole house up. Still exciting even when she is 11!

      John glad you are still home.

          1. 5:00 for me. Had to wait about a half hour for my grandson. ;). John I am so very happy you were there to see your buddy’s smile first thing!

  106. Good Morning and I hope everyone is enjoying the holidays.
    We get a big MESS heading our way late tomorrow into Thursday morning and winter storm watches up for parts of the interior of SNE. My thinking has not changed from yesterday. For areas near and at the coast a quick burst of wintry precipitation before a changeover to rain. Inland areas should hang on to the wintry precipitation longer.
    Snow Index for areas under the watch at a 2 for those areas. The I-95 corridor south and east a 0 since I don’t see much if any snow accumulation. Just West of that corridor a 1 since a few inches MAY accumulate.
    Will see how this plays out and if this storm has any tricks up its sleeves. The farther you are in the interior you are in the jackpot zone for wintry weather.

  107. Merry Xmas!!! Both boys still asleep 🙂

    Winter Storm Watch posted for Maine. Looking for about 10-12 inches. Mixing looks to occur south of my area and on immediate coast.

  109. I think the 06z gfs still looks good with locking in colder air and having a good amount of front end snow and then changing to rain. It continues to trend colder. I tried to look at the euro on wundermap but really difficult anyone care to post a link for euro?

    I hope everyone’s having a Merry Christmas this morning!! Wishing you all the best!

  110. TJ it looks good on the front end for a decent thump but looks to transition. Take a look at the NWS write up , IMHO a very good one.

    1. Just read the NWS write up. Good analysis but I feel we will have more snow on the coast up front and then transition to rain. Will see what happens. From the write up your going to get 10 plus where your at. Have fun Hadi in the snow..

  111. Now both GFS and euro are a miss for this weekend. We shall as see as the NAO is more positive so storm should move west a little more.

    OS if you see this how do I post photos to the blog?

    1. Gfs & Euro are grazing the coast give them sometime they will come around again. Remember this storm was supposed to hit the benchmark for like 5 days in a row and then went way west and now is trending east again.

  112. A nice touch of snow to wake up to on Christmas morning. I am taking it one storm at a time. The weekend storm is going to go back and forth but if it were to impact us it could deliver a good snow dump. I think most of it stays over the fish. I hope I am wrong.

  113. Rain now in Marshfield, but got to see the ground whitened 🙂

    My opinion of 12/26-27 storm hasnt changed much. That event a couple of weeks ago, when the cold air hung tough and inland areas just away from the coast received ice …. that was a fairly weak low that never got the winds along the coast much above 10 to 15 mph. It was preceeded by a decent, cold high that had Caribou, ME below zero a day before the event.

    This next event is going to be much stronger and is going to put this milder than normal ocean into play to its fullest extent. A bit of front end snow, sure. I’m thinking more like 2-3 inches in Worcester, maybe 1-2 inches in Lowell, up to an inch to the 128 belt. I think rain washes it all away and a net gain of snow doesnt really begin until one gets north of Manchester, NH and Portland, ME.

    I think the jackpot will be in the area of Montpelier, VT, North Conway, NH and Poland Springs, ME. I think Worcester will get to 35 or 36F duing the heart of the storm, Logan around 43 to 44F and even Portland, ME will get to 38F or 39F, as it briefly is situated east of the coastal front….

    I hope I am so wrong and that there’s more snow for all !!!

  114. Merry Christmas! and may the spirit of Christmas be with you throughout the New Year! Woke up to a dusting, and still falling ever so slightly.

    1. Merry Christmas to you also……there is nothing as magical as Christmas snow. And it’s two years in a row 😀

  115. Could be a good size severe weather outbreak for parts of the Gulf Coast with hail, damaging winds, and tornadoes. The SPC using some strong language. Hopefully that does not materialize. This is all part of the same storm system which won’t give us severe weather but a big wintry mess.

  116. Merry Christmas all! We have a dusting of snow. But what is weird is that the pavements are covered and the grass isn’t. But it is snowing lightly – flakes just drifting about. All presents are given (except for other family members coming over later) and I have to get busy cooking. Fortunately, my baking is done. Our tradition is gingerbread men – started when I was younger and continues into the present.

    1. Merry Christmas, Rainshine! Traditions are a wonderful part of the holiday! Enjoy your gingerbread men 🙂

  117. I chuckled when I opened my son’s gift… a gardening basket filled with a gardener’s delight. He did note that I’d have to wait a few months to enjoy my gift 🙂 Children (young and old) are the best part of Christmas!

  119. Merry Christmas , the light snow has changed to rain 33 degrees, we got a little less than half an inch, I guess no sledding, maybe next time 🙂

  121. If that track could shift more offshore. Looks like on the latest NAM GFS it wants to hug the coast and come to close which will bring in that mild ocean air.

  122. It’s Christmas!! I hope everyone has a wonderful day today with their families 🙂

    Dusting here at the moms is Attleboro. Got most of it between midnight and 2am and its been raining/freezing raining lightly ever since. Keeping my fingers crossed the weekend storm trends back west cuz that thing bombs out big time.

    1. Yeah it was freezing raining here too but since the temp went from 32 to 33 it’s just plain rain here now

  123. The NAO looks to be positive over the weekend and I can’t recall having big east coast storm with bigs snows with that type of setup.

      1. Sometimes I feel like we live in a different country, I’ve got rain at 33.6 degrees with no winter wonderland like ur talking and I’m prolly 25 min south on 495, have a merry Christmas

          1. Raining in Pembroke Charlie. Got a light dusting here and most is gone. Merry Christmas. Again good forecasting by you. Boston down my way tomorrow night, what’s your call.

  127. Thanks Hadi. I only said that because Henry Margusity mentioned it about a year ago that when the NAO is positive its not a good setup for an east coast storm.
    Merry Christmas to you and your family!!!

  128. Merry Christmas!!

    Snowing light & steady in Woburn for the moment with about 0.3 inch so far…

    1. Tk I think the rain crept in a little sooner than I thought, we got rain and 33.6 and the coating we had is gone 🙁

      1. My friend Heat Miser wanted to wish you a Merry Christmas, Charlie. 🙂

        That explains why you changed to rain. 😉

  130. Anyways everyone have a merry Christmas !!! Thanks everyone for putting up or not putting up with my crap, 🙂

    1. Snow just picked up again here in Woburn after tapering off a little. Bigger flakes. It looks great falling. 🙂

    2. Charlie, I live in the same world as you. Rain since about 7am, dusting is gone.

      Boy, that NAM has been so consistent and very mild.

  131. Beautiful NAM run for us here in Maine, not so for SNE. (Sorry) Really juicy QPF and all snow!! Gonna try and take some pictures if I can do it.

  133. I report what I see, I will not butter it up either way, some people don’t like that but it’s ok, white Christmas north brown Christmas south, hope all of u have a good Christmas 🙂

    1. Charlie,
      Don’t worry. I sure wouldn’t call this a White Christmas! This morning’s
      event was a Colossal Bust! 😀 😀 😀 Not that it was forecast to be big, but
      I was expecting at least an inch! What a joke.

    1. Not liking NAM run:
      http://mag.ncep.noaa.gov/NCOMAGWEB/appcontroller?page=Image&prevPage=Param&image=..%2FGemPakTier%2FMagGemPakImages%2Fnam%2F20121225%2F12%2Fnam_namer_048_850_temp_mslp_precip.gif&fcast=048&model=NAM&area=NAMER&storm=&areaDesc=North+America+-+US+Canada+and+northern+Mexico&cat=MODEL+GUIDANCE&rname=SFC-LAYER+PARMS&pname=850_temp_mslp_precip&cycle=12%2F25%2F2012+12UTC&imageSize=M&currKey=model&scrollx=0&scrolly=0&nextImage=yes

      The GFS offers some front end hope, but boundary layer issues will probably kill that anyway.

      http://mag.ncep.noaa.gov/NCOMAGWEB/appcontroller?page=Image&prevPage=Param&image=..%2FGemPakTier%2FMagGemPakImages%2Fgfs%2F20121225%2F12%2Fgfs_namer_048_850_temp_mslp_precip.gif&fcast=048&model=GFS&area=NAMER&storm=&areaDesc=North+America+-+US+Canada+and+northern+Mexico&cat=MODEL+GUIDANCE&rname=SFC-LAYER+PARMS&pname=850_temp_mslp_precip&cycle=12%2F25%2F2012+12UTC&imageSize=M&currKey=model&scrollx=0&scrolly=0&prevArea=NAMER&prevImage=yes

      The GFS run appears colder than yesterday and doesn’t take the mid-level
      warming too far North of the Boston area.

      Looking forward to viewing 12Z Euro, Canadian, and UKMET before we’re
      off to my Daughter’s in Hopkinton for Christmas Dinner.

  140. A nice dusting on the grass and some rooftops but now mostly gone here in Dorchester. There was never any snow on the streets…not even the side streets.

    Merry Christmas everyone! 🙂

  142. I am hoping that Logan received at least 0.1″ this morning so that the snow total will equal last year’s at 1.0″ exactly. My bet is though that it will end up officially as a lousy “Trace”.

    Logan’s snow total to date = 0.9″ 😉

  143. I dont know ……

    I see on the 12z GFS at 48 hrs, the 546 1,000-500 mb thickness pretty far north. I see what I think is the magic 540 thickness all the way up into the white mtns and north of Portland, ME extending towards Calais. On the 850 mb temps, I see the 0c isotherm near the Mass/NH border and on the 2m temps, they are also fairly far to the north. And thats the cooler GFS, as compares to the NAM and the EURO. I just think these snow expectations by the NWS starting in central Mass and for a great distance northward are in jeopardy. Again, I think the big snows are much further north and northwestward. Am I reading and interpreting the data incorrectly ??

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