Thursday AM Update

463 Comments

7:32AM

Quick forecast update for now – full discussion later today.

TODAY: Partly sunny. Highs 30-35. Wind NW 10-20 MPH and gusty.

TONIGHT: Mostly clear. Lows 15-20. Wind NW 5-15 MPH.

FRIDAY: Mostly sunny. Highs 35-40. Wind N 10-15 MPH.

SATURDAY: Cloudy. Snow/mix/rain late. Low 22. High 40.

SUNDAY: Cloudy. Mix/snow ending late. Low 30. High 40.

MONDAY: Mostly sunny. Low 18. High 38.

TUESDAY: Increasing clouds. Low 22. High 41.

WEDNESDAY: Mostly cloudy. Rain and snow showers. Low 31. High 42.

463 thoughts on “Thursday AM Update”

  8. BZ and whdh seem to be in agreement with 8-12. Wcvb has lower amounts below rt 2. Is the threat of a foot and a half plus gone at this point? Thank you

        1. Don’t bring any snow here hadi we r trying to get rid of the snow here, enjoy your day sking 🙂 be careful

    1. Please no, there are way more out there that want 0 snow than any snow, I have people leaving messages on my phone saying make it rain, make it rain, it would be a real bummer for a high percentage of New England residents, like I said I don’t mind snow in Dec/Jan but Feb is month when u begin spring fever, in the end I understand this is a weather blog and I love the weather so let it do what it’s gonna do 🙂 have a good day kirbet, really hoping for mainly rain in my neck of the woods Wrentham,north attleboro area, sick of it and everyone I talk to except my 3 yr old nephew wants snow, everyone else wants winter over 🙂

      2. Hey Chahlie, i know ur getting a lot of grief on here lately, so i will add to it 😛 Since when has feb become a month to get ready for springtime? I know the past few years we havent had much in the way of snowfall in feb, but last i checked, its still in the heart of winter. I love all the seasons and dont like to rush any of them along

        1. actually Ace…check Charlie’s latest posts last night on the other blogs. He was busting us for predicting snow claiming that all we do is predict snow. His grief comes well warranted 😀

          1. Love it as long as its respectful, u starting calling me and my family names well then whole different thing, as it is it’s fine and I enjoy everything on here just the way it is

        2. Don’t worry about me getting grief, I’ll be fine, I enjoy it, keep it coming and no I’m not going anywhere south, ya gonna have to deal with me 🙂

        3. I come from an enormous family, and some r the biggest toughest jerks around, I’m totally fine, thanks guys 🙂

  11. The King model still paints an all heavy snow event for Boston southwest, west and northwest. Still looks like a good 12+. Even the NAM has trended colder with its last run and the GFS has been awful all winter. And Charlie, if you don’t believe that, then just refer to TK. Unlike you, who doesn’t use anything but a gut feeling and wishful thinking to create a forecast, guys like Hadi, who have been studying meteorology as a hobby since they were children, use real knowledge and experience to create theirs. There have been countless times where Hadi forecasted a warmer solution or an OTS solution when he didn’t see it in the cards. You can think of me as you wish but get ready for the snow! 😀

    1. Ok I’ve been studying weather since the mid 70’s and if u think its gut feeling then u don’t know me, I’ve been to Myles standish way in Taunton service center prolly 50 times in my life, I’m not sure your reading me right, u gonna be at legacy place in 6 days?

  12. Danielle Niles maps and forecast seemed very responsible this Morning. She said it’s impossible to pinpoint the rain/snow line, and she only gave the likelihood of plow able snow on her map.

  13. Good morning all. After viewing the 0Z GFS last night, I went to bed
    Dreaming of Low pressures hugging the coast and dumping rain on us. 😀

    The 0Z Euro has saved the day, However, it has backed off considerably on its
    QPF. Still a significant storm but imho, no longer a blockbuster. I suppose that
    could change back. We’ll see.

    Here is a screen shot of it in between the 24 hour increments:

    http://home.comcast.net/~dhinchli/pwpimages/EURO%282%29.jpg

    This run has the storm passing underneath us, and then ESE way out to sea
    in a most unusual direction, presumably due to the blocking.

    Therefore, the other models (Can you hear me NAM and GFS?) will HAVE to come
    around.

    850 0C line migrates North to “about” or just above the MA/CT/RI borders.

    Then it comes crashing SouthEastward.

    One other thought. Now that the storm is depicted to be not quite as intense, this
    will cut down on the dynamic cooling. There will be a R/S line due to:

    1. The 850mb Freezing line migrates Northward.
    2. Proximity to the South coast for a portion of the storm will bring more Easterly
    winds and with no Arctic High in place, even with 39 degree water, that boundary
    layer may just warm up enough for mix and/or rain. Also with storm less intense,
    precip won’t be quite as heavy, thus aiding boundary layer warming.

    The $64,000 question is: Where does this R/S line set up?

    IMHO, very close to Boston. Could be just South or it may make it to Boston
    for at least awhile. We’ll keep watching for updates.

  14. In Charlies defense, although I am not certain his reasoning or that of his friends is the same, and as I said here yesterday, it is not the snow that those I speak to do not want. It is the “destructive” snow. We have been through a series of nothing but destructive events and it’s hard to even think about wanting it to happen yet again. It’s a very justifiable knee jerk reaction IMHO.

    For me – bring on the average snow storm but yesterday everyone here was seeing anything but on the models.

    1. I should have added that normally I would be the one politely (hopefully) suggesting Charlie stop belittling Massachusetts/New England but in reality system after system of devastation is not New England.

    2. Vicki,

      Well said. AS much as I love snow, I don’t want destructive snow.
      I was talking about that all day yesterday. I own a home. I don’t want
      damage to it. I don’t want ice dams or trees crashing down on my house.

      Give me a good solid foot of powder snow and I’m happy.

      8-12 inches of cement = Disaster and no one needs that!

      1. Exactly – and thanks OS – it’s slightly (emphasis on the word slightly) possible the five incredibly loud heaters and dehumidifiers echoing through our home right now 24 hours a day (and lasting through next Monday) have something to do with my current views 🙂

        Please when addressing me for the next few days remember to shout – I can’t hear a thing 😯

    2. Look at the orientation of the 0C line. Doesn’t seem to make anatomical sense. As per usual, the EC seems to be the only model that time and time again makes sense meteorologically speaking.

      1. OC line on Euro is a more West to East orientation, reflective
        of the system moving almost due East South of the area.

  16. It appears as if a cut off low that was poised to phase with the surface low does not want to happen and hence qpf is a bit lower. Nevertheless, a good 12+ is a sure bet for those areas who remain all snow a couple of miles away from the coast and north of a line from pvd to taunton.

  17. I do not think there will be measurable snow along the coast and in Boston, and this is not just a “gut feeling” and certainly not “wishful thinking” (I am a snow guy, and a winter person, and I detest cold rain storms). I do not study the models as in depth as some, but common sense dictates that when the surface temperature barely gets to freezing (I do not think it will Saturday night, actually, at least in town), then regardless of what is falling from the sky, it will not accumulate much at all. And this may extend as far as 128. Now, a different story in the interior, but even there temps will be marginal at best.

    1. To say there won’t be any measurable snow in Boston or along the coast would be irresponsible. There isn’t one model that suggests that Josh. I understand some rain will play a role south and east of the city but even the Cape and Islands will see a few inches of snow on the back end of the system. It’s the middle of February and therefore ground temps are plenty cold enough to support accumulating snow even if surface temps are above freezing. You also have to take into consideration that the column in the mid and upper levels will be cold enough to support snow so as the heavier precip moves in, the lower level marginal temps won’t stop it from snowing and accumulating. We all agree that a rain/snow line will set up but I do not agree that snow doesn’t accumulate right down to the outer cape eventually with this storm. Boston will see mainly accumulating snow with some mixing at the start before changing to heavy snow during the heart of the storm.

      1. There’s gonna be some snow I’m just hoping not alot, like u said euro is holding strong and now the last nam run is hinting at a colder scenerio which is not what I wanted but like someone said its New England, enjoy the day

  19. from NWS:

    WE ALSO NOTED THAT THE 00Z ECMWF MODEL REMAINS THE STRONGEST…SO ITS NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION THAT THE
    MODELS FLIP BACK TO A STRONGER SOLUTION OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS. THE BIG CONCERN WILL BE THAT THIS WILL BE A WET SNOW ACROSS MUCH OF THE REGION…WHICH COULD LEAD TO SOME DOWNED TREE LIMBS/POWER OUTAGES.

  21. To be fair to Charlie, he most certainly has a good grasp of the weather. He has nailed somethings in the past many days out when we all thought snow and he thought rain.

  23. ECMWF Deterministic FORECAST FOR: BOS LAT= 42.37 LON= -71.03 ELE= 20

    00Z FEB21
    2 M 850 SFC SFC 700 6 HR 500 1000
    TMP TMP PRS RHU RHU QPF HGT 500
    (C) (C) (MB) (PCT) (PCT) (IN) (DM) THK
    THU 00Z 21-FEB -3.4 -13.4 1006 55 96 0.00 519 514
    THU 06Z 21-FEB -7.1 -9.8 1009 72 78 0.00 525 518
    THU 12Z 21-FEB -8.6 -13.7 1011 74 83 0.00 526 518
    THU 18Z 21-FEB -1.6 -11.8 1010 49 78 0.00 524 516
    FRI 00Z 22-FEB -4.6 -8.9 1016 69 80 0.00 533 520
    FRI 06Z 22-FEB -6.2 -8.5 1022 82 52 0.00 546 528
    FRI 12Z 22-FEB -7.3 -5.9 1026 86 27 0.00 553 533
    FRI 18Z 22-FEB 2.1 -3.6 1027 62 8 0.00 556 534
    SAT 00Z 23-FEB -2.0 -2.8 1028 80 8 0.00 557 535
    SAT 06Z 23-FEB -3.6 -4.1 1027 85 69 0.00 555 534
    SAT 12Z 23-FEB -2.5 -4.5 1025 84 62 0.00 555 535
    SAT 18Z 23-FEB 2.5 -4.0 1022 73 62 0.00 553 536
    SUN 00Z 24-FEB 0.9 -2.0 1018 91 95 0.05 552 537
    SUN 06Z 24-FEB 1.6 -0.7 1012 98 100 0.31 549 539
    SUN 12Z 24-FEB 1.9 -1.5 1006 99 100 0.40 542 538
    SUN 18Z 24-FEB 1.4 -4.1 1002 99 100 0.42 535 534
    MON 00Z 25-FEB -0.1 -7.1 1007 89 99 0.33 534 528
    MON 06Z 25-FEB -2.5 -6.8 1010 83 89 0.08 537 529

    Oz Euro deliveres 1.59″ QPF to Boston, down quite a bit from the 2.14″ in yesterday’s 12z run. Note that 850mb 0C temps remain below freezing throughout the storm but 2M temps are above freezing between 18z Sat and 18z Sunday.

    Also note the 850mb temps start crashing from 18z Sunday on, and during that time 0.83 QPF falls. Would seem to be a given that last batch of QPF would be a lock for all snow and about 8″ worth. In what form the first half of precip falls is still up in the air but based solely on this Euro run, I would say 8-12″ for Boston metro away from the immediate coastline would be a good early call.

      1. Completely agree Mark. The city itself may be a tough call but a mile or two away from the city should see mainly heavy snow out of this if the EC were to verify and I think it will.

  24. By the way, a banner week of snow is coming for the mountains, starting with the upcoming storm. Could be snow every day next week in places like the White Mountains and lots of it. Could have used some of this snow last year, but at least they’re getting it this year.

  26. While we wait for the next round of model runs and such, a question about the next storm. Are we at the point where the timing (just the timing, not track or impact) of the storm for the first weekend in March (the one Matt Noyes keeps alluding to as “big”) is fairly known? I ask because I’m flying out of Logan on the evening of 2/28, and I’m hoping whatever it is holds off until I’m in the air and on my way. 🙂

      1. I should say too warm for “all snow”. Temps are marginal but take it with a grain of salt as this is still very much in the long range.

        1. Mark in this particular storm next week, I see more precip type issues with more of a liquid event vs. a snow event unfortunately.

  27. NAM surface/850mb:

    http://www.instantweathermaps.com/NAM-php/showmap-conusncep.php?run=2013022112&var=PCPPRSTMP_850mb&hour=072

    NAM snow map:

    http://www.instantweathermaps.com/NAM-php/showmap-conussfc.php?run=2013022112&time=PER&var=ASNOWI&hour=084

    Wind gusts:

    http://www.instantweathermaps.com/NAM/2013022112/USA_GUSTM_sfc_075.gif

    HOLY CRAP BATMAN, here we go again!!

    The 12Z NAM is cooking big time, but then we know it overcooks precip.
    Cut it in half and Boston still gets a foot and 15+ interior.

    Independent of overcooking precip, the NAM has this back to a monster!!

    1. I really thought it was going to trend warmer all things considered, well I’m a big nam supporter inside 48hrs so snow may be a coming, I still think some mixing issues south and east of Boston are possible, will c , be back later today, by all 🙂

      1. Stick with Hadi and I charlie. The NAM 4 days just wasn’t reliable. Also, the GFS is a complete mess and until its performance improves, I will no longer give it much credability whether it demonstrated no snow or 5 feet. It’s a blend of the EC/NAM from here on out with more emphasis on the EURO.

  29. Here we go again with the NAM. 24″ in Worcester County? Convective feedback again? Regardless, that’s a big hit for all of MA, except SE areas. Unfortunately it still holds the MA/CT/RI border as the boundary between a lot of snow and virtually nothing. Ugh…..move me 20 miles north!!

    Seems like last night’s trend of the models towards a weaker system was just a blip and they are readjusting back to the more amplified solution.

    Shortwave involved in this event is on shore from the Pacific now so you would think these 12z runs would have better sampling/data.

      1. Coventry in northcentral/northeast CT. About 20 miles east of Hartford in Central Tolland County. I’m at about 700′ elevation which often helps me, but that is not really a factor in this scenario since the warming is occuring at 850mb.

          1. Unfortunately for you Charlie, if the NAM were to verify, you could be closing in on 18″ LOL!. However, I think the EC is more accurate but you should still get a good 12″ or more 😀

  30. Nam low placement is perfect. Also high of 1024 positioned well. Not a too much of a dirty high. Btw on a chair lift as I type 🙂

    3. Dont lose the glove! I did that last year typing on the blog and i had one frozen hand all the way down! 😮

  31. One thing that makes me think NAM had a decent run…. Look at how the precip hits a wall in southwestern ME and is forced due east. In this negative an NAO pattern, it makes me think the NAM has that implication factored in nicely. As for amts, as stated above, shave down some. Love how its still heavy precip with the low like 300 miles east off of the coastline. LOL !

    1. Agreed Tom. I like the set up that the NAM depicts. Snowfall amounts however are too high. I’m still thinking a good 12+ Boston, southwest, west and northwest. The GFS may never come around due to its poor performance issues. It’s the NAM and more important the EURO show!

  32. That nam run has Taunton getting 2-4 inches of snow and sleet but just north and west over a foot,, hmmm something’s not right

    1. That is actually would could occur. The thermal gradient will be very tight and a well demarcated line of snow vs. rain will form with this system. However, I see taunton receiving more snow than that 😀

    2. Also, the latest NAM run does NOT show 2-4 inches for Taunton. It shows a good 8-12 inches with 3-6 inches further south along the south coast.

          1. Of course look at the nam, I was putting my eggs all in 1 basket and really thought I was seeing a hint to a warmer solution, at this point that’s not the case, I got burnt, won’t be the last

  33. Smething I have to comment about. This is just my opinion, I stick by it and I could be completely wrong and way off base …..

    I dont enjoy reading some of the back and forth going on in regards to some posts. Disagreement is good and it creates great dialogue !! However, its the context in which disagreements are being written that I’m speaking of.

    I just believe we all can take the conversation on this superb blog to an even higher level and keep it there. When we start getting into making assumptions on a person’s weather background or whether people are blogging what they want to see happen, I find it makes for unenjoyable reading.

    I would like to propose that a comment’s litmus test for excellent dialogue based on disagreement be …….. Is my counterpoint based on some meteorological reasoning ?

    Anyhow, thats my two cents.

    1. Agree with you. Prefer that people take the high road. We can always agree to disagree and I think it’s fair to ask someone about their reasoning. And it’s fair to objectively refute their reasoning but we all know there is a line in the sand that does not have to be crossed.

      2. I totally agree. I may have crossed the line once or twice, but
        I do make a serious effort not to do so. I have completely typed a post and never hit the “Post Comment” button as I read it and determined that it might be offensive to someone.

        That being said, I still reserve the right to respectfully disagree when I feel the need to do so.

        😀

        1. Absolutely OS.

          And I certainly didn’t take offense to comments made by Charlie last evening when he said that Hadi and I only predict snow and pay attention to models only suggestive of snow. That is his opinion and he is entitled to that just as any one individual is entitled to refute one’s opinion. This is not like the WBZ blog where people get nasty. People aren’t nasty here. It’s playful, respectful dialogue that should be taken offensively IMHO. Let’s take a deep breath.

    3. I think everyone on here is professional except the very very very few,, and what doesn’t bother me may bother someone alot so we have to keep that in mind 🙂

    4. Thanks for putting that out there, Tom. I don’t think you are the only one feeling uncomfortable with some of the back and forth comments.

    5. If I may add to what Tom said above. I would also encourage more grammar and spelling mistakes here on this blog. I for one am not know for putting a sentence together correctly never mind speling (SP?). This will make more feel more welcomed and equal to you all.

      1. Encourage more grammar and spelling Mistakes?

        Do you mean that? Or do mean for posters to correct grammar and spelling?

        Many of the spelling errors here are simply typos. The poster knew full well how to spell the word, they just didn’t hit the correct keys.

        Not that my grammar is perfect, but I’m usually a stickler for correct grammar, but I keep my mouth shut when I see incorrect grammar. 😀

  35. Hi guys…finally getting to check in.

    Well, looks like the NAM is doing its things. I’m rolling for Worcester Hills bullseye! We’ll see…

    Ok, nutty GFS coming up..

    1. Yes, it’s rolling right along. Waiting to post all of the pertinent maps. 😀
      Some early simulated radar reflectivity hints at this being a rather juicy run.
      We’ll see. 😀

        1. I think the GFS is on CRACK!!!!

          This run SUCKS big time. The GFS thinks the ocean temperatures are running in the 50s. 😀 😀 😀

            2. Completely off the wall…the low seems to bounce all over the place on that run…Euro/NAM from here on out

              1. GoForSnow. You and I are in complete agreement. I have discounted the GFS for a very long time now. It’s a horrible model and not because it’s a weak, warm solution.

  36. Just a thought on the GFS: Although the GFS has been just terrible in the details of forecasts, i.e. QPF, exact track of storms, etc (just look at this past weekend where it showed more snow than any other model)…I feel like it has been ok in terms of it picking up potential storm threats pretty far away. Correct me if I’m wrong, but wasn’t the GFS the first to pick up on this storm? With that being said the GFS is terrible until it can prove otherwise with details and should be taken with a grain of salt for this upcoming storm from here on out.

    1. It did have the storm first but it is wildly inconsistent run to run for snow crazies like us.

      Just look at how NWS blends its forecasts 3:1, 3:2 etc… Euro/GFS. That speaks.

    2. GoForSnow…I completely agree. The GFS does do a good job of picking up a storm but as we grow closer to the storm the GFS does not pick up on the storm details accurately. In essence, it knows a storm is out there but has no idea what it will do and that’s just horrible. I rely more on the GFS of a potential storm 2 weeks out more than I do 2 days away. Sad!

    1. With the 850mb 0C and the 1000-500mb thickness and the track of the storm,
      how does this run have ZERO snow for Boston, Save for perhaps a coating to an inch at the end?

      Makes no sense at all. AND NAM has Boston in the 22-24 inch range.

      One model = ZERO
      One model =22-24

      This is LUNACY!!!

      Please GIVE ME THE EURO. That will ground us. 😀

        1. The GFS has 0-3 inches all the way into Worcester. Enough said. Onto the EURO. Again, it’s a EC/NAM compromise and local METS should not even pay much attention to the GFS.

  38. Tom – thank you! I always strive to be respectful. I do not always accomplish that. However, I also recognize when I miss the mark. I love hearing predictions. But it does bother me when a person counters the prediction of another by saying that can’t or won’t happen.

    I get that many times it is in fun; however, the problem is that we all type quickly and the written word can come across in a manner very different from its intent.

    The only problem with your litmus test is I have no meteorological knowledge —- does that mean I can’t comment?? Just kidding. I don’t think I ever predict because I just don’t have the knowledge. I do love reading all of the predictions and seeing how a person got to that point.

    The one thing I try to keep in mind is that TK said his son reads this blog. I suspect other younger folk may as well. I know there are disagreement but in real life there are always disagreements. I do admire the way they are resolved on here, forgotten and moved past. It’s an example I’d want sent for my kids.

    1. VERY thoughtful response Vicki! I agree with you 100 percent! I have no background in meteorology either. Just a strange fascination with earth science and the weather. I really enjoy this blog and all who contribute to it.

    2. When I was 7 yrs old I would watch weather and bc I loved snow and when snow was coming I would tell everyone the weather forecast that snow was coming and people thought I was a weirdo, I got my 1st rain gauge and anemometer at 8 or 9 yrs old, great write up Vicki, u can comment whenever haha 🙂

    3. Hi Vicki.

      Sure you have meteorological knowledge !! Not trying to say it has to be technical meteorology, just trying to suggest a focus of staying on weather reasoning during debate/disagreement. Debate/disagreement is wonderful for the blog, but I just wasnt feeling great about it lately as I was reading some of it.

      1. Tom I absolutely understood what you said and completely agree. I’ll go one step further and it also IMHO needed to be addressed and you did so in your always very respectful way. If you remember, the first time I became aware of “southshore” Tom was on the BZ blog when I was upset that some were criticizing mets from other stations (pete specifically) and you immediately “spoke up” and agreed it was not appropriate. I knew right then and there that you were a wonderfully respectful person 🙂

    1. EURO won’t come in warmer but even if it did, models (except the GFS) will begin to trend colder and stronger more in line with the EURO over the next 24-36 hours.

  41. Damn…I’m away for a few days from the forum (nursing a mild case of Vertigo and a sinus infection) and I see that we have a Hatfield vs McCoy skirmish going on (Hadi vs Charlie). Time for everyone to switch to decaf 🙂

    I was thinking about how I feel about another snowstorm. I certainly love a good snowfall but don’t want the cement either. A lot of people are saying that it’s too late in the season for more of the white stuff. I kinda go the other way. We had an easy go of it in December and January. The holidays were easy to get around for shopping, etc with no snow. Now the storms/snow have hit us here in February and except for a short blast of really cold air we’ve been ok as far as temps are concerned. At this point more snow for me is just a short term PIA as I keep my eyes on the prize….April…opening day for the Sox….the Marathon….cold easterly winds (oops how did that get in there)…and eventually Memorial Day…the pool…the beach…etc.

  42. The 0z Euro basically splits the difference between the NAM 20″ snow bomb and the GFS no snow scenario. I would expect it to stay the course at 12z. One thing is for certain in looking at all model runs, this is not our storm in CT and RI. Looks like lots of slop and moderate snow accumulations at best.

  43. Ok I was glancing over the comments and there’s a comment above that says I have an enormous family so on so on, it was said strictly bc no one on here could ever be bigger jerks or inconsiderate to me than some of my big bully bigmouth friends and family, in no way was it meant threatening, hope it came across that way, have a good day 🙂

    1. You know this SREF model has some really cool features. I am beginning
      to like it very much. I wish TK could comment on its accuracy. 😀

        1. I think many of the local TV mets are going with the SREF as a safe blend between the GFS and NAM/EC. I think the SREF has the right idea but about 25 miles too warm.

          1. I think you are correct. That R/S line will end up
            somewhat more to the S&E. Perhaps around
            Cohasset or Sitcuate.

    3. From Pete B

      @pbouchardon7: Luv u all like bros and sisters, but folks, this is a snowstorm. Travel will b slippery, flights will b delay/cancelled Sat nt & Sun.

    1. Nice. I disagree with his statement about not expecting widespread
      outages. IF we get the heavy wet stuff, it can cause many problems
      WITHOUT the wind and by the way, we will still have wind, just not as strong
      as previous storms. Just my thoughts.

      Here is a direct link to his amount map (which btw is exactly the same
      as Todd’s from 11PM, in fact I’d wager it is Todd’s :D)

      http://cbsboston.files.wordpress.com/2013/02/map33.jpg?w=200&h=150

      1. That is Todd’s. LOL! Once the King speaks in 2 hours, the local METS will be scrambling for new tweets and new updated maps reflecting the latest trends.

    2. Lisa, I sure hope Terri’s wrong about Boston starting as snow and then going over to rain for a spell only to go back to snow. One or the other, but rain laden snow is a bad setup for the old ticker!

  47. Any models have this storm as a fish storm, or is it now just snow vs. rain/mix? Also, how far out are the models considered to be reliable (if ever)? 72, 48, 36 hours?

  49. @BarryWBZ: With the upcoming snowfall later Sat. into Sun., Boston COULD end up with the snowiest February ever beating the 41.3″ of 2/69!!

  50. Barry Burbank ‏@BarryWBZ
    With the upcoming snowfall later Sat. into Sun., Boston COULD end up with the snowiest February ever beating the 41.3″ of 2/69!!

    Well that would mean 9 inches Plus for Boston! 😀

    I think Barry is on board.

  51. Harvey Leonard ‏@HarveyWCVB
    As Sat. Nt. East wind becomes Sunday Morning NE-N wind, rain/snow line will push south
    Expand Reply Retweet Favorite More
    41 mins Harvey Leonard ‏@HarveyWCVB
    Some rain or mix may get involved for a while Sat. Nt, esp. So. Coast & Cape, and possibly East Coast of MA up to Boston
    Expand
    44 mins Harvey Leonard ‏@HarveyWCVB
    All systems are a go for another substantial snowfall for Boston area..heaviest snow Sunday Morning

  52. Not a MET, obviously, but I am going with GFS. I know it has not performed as well as the Euro model. I’ll probably be proven wrong, though it is hardly irresponsible to be proven wrong. This said, I don’t see anything remotely close to cold air along the coast and in Boston. Will it snow in Boston. Sure, at a certain point, and the temps will be in the mid 30s. That does not make for accumulating snow. Perhaps some slush, but I really don’t think anything more than that. I’m sorry to be stubborn about this.

      1. As winds turn more northeasterly and then northerly, cold air from northern new england will bleed into the storm. More important, the column in the mid and upper levels is plenty cold enough; thus, when the heavier precip. moves in, dynamic cooling occurs and brings cold air down to the surface quickly changing any mix/rain to heavy snow. A perfect example of dynamic cooling occurs in the summer time during severe thunderstorms where some parts of the country accumulate inches of ice!

    4. Joshua, I don’t know how old you are, but do not be fooled.

      This storm will bring down cold air from above (Dynamic cooling).
      The stronger the storm, the more dramatic the cooling. Also, the ocean
      is about 39 Degrees. (well 39.7 at the moment) With the stronger
      storm anticipated, the precip WILL be intense enough to overcome
      that ocean influence.

      And you are worried that it may be 35. Don’t be. If cold above, and precip
      is intense snow will have ZERO problem accumulating. When I was younger
      I can remember a couple snow storms where the WHOLE storm was 36 F and it accumulated 8-12 inches.

      Don’t worry, be happy. 😀

  56. I would say 3 things we are now totally sure regarding this weekend storm:

    1. It will not go OTS…yes there are still rumors
    2. Rain/snow line will not go any further north than Boston regardless
    3. More info will be available tomorrow 😀

    1. I despise the term south coast. There’s no clear definition of it, everyone has their own. To me, its the south coastline of CT, RI, and MA up to the Cape then inland no more than 10 miles. To others its a line from PVD to Taunton to Plymouth. Then even to others its a line from Hartford to PVD to Boston.

      2. Ace…I hear you on that one. To me the South Cast would be (like you said) the coastal area of CT, RI, MA…up to 10 miles inland and up to maybe the Plymouth area (including the Cape).

        2. The NWS uses the term “South Coast” all the time in its Discussions not to mention many TV mets…I had no idea it was an offensive term for some. ❓

          2. LOL, its not offensive, and i wasnt mad that u used it 🙂 Its just such a vague term thrown around all the time with no clear definition. All my life I have lived in that mystery zone south to southwest of boston that ends up being the battle ground between snow and rain. A lot of people call my area the south coast and its really not. So thats why, no offense taken 🙂

            1. You’re right Ace. I think you live in Easton where some people refer to you as the south shore. That also isn’t the proper term for your locale. I would say you live in the “I-95 corridor” even though 24 is closer to you than 95 😉

              1. True alisonarod. I am in Easton now, right on the east mansfield line, so its usually easier for me to hop on 95 in Mansfield than to treck across town to 24. I grew up in North Attleboro though so a lot closer to 95. We were almost always rain or sleet or some sort of mix.

  58. Lambert on Channel 7 just up the totals.. Now 6-10 inside 495, outside 495 is 10-16 and won’t “surprise to see a foot and a half” in Worcester hills…

    1. Didn’t we just call this saying the local mets will scramble to up their totals??? It’s comical how they ever took the bait on the GFS. I suspect these totals still remain conservative for the 128 area. That 10-16″ line should be pushed further east to include the immediate suburbs of Boston a mile or two west, southwest, and northwest…and it will be.

    1. And that is conservative except perhaps at Logan airport. A mile or two inland from the city should see 12+ easily from this storm.

    1. No later than 4 pm to play it safe but heavy stuff doesn’t get going until later in the evening on Saturday.

  63. Tweet from Pete B not buying warm solution either

    @pbouchardon7: Luv u all like bros and sisters, but folks, this is a snowstorm. Travel will b slippery, flights will b delay/cancelled Sat nt & Sun.

  64. Cannot wait to see what the EC says in an hour. I think it will remain consistent if not a bit more robust than its previous run which will be very telling. We’re only 55 hours away from the start of the event.

  65. i’m loving how my hometown of Westwood is very very close to that 10-16 inch line on WHDH. I suspect that 10-16″ line will be spread further south and east on future runs 😀

  66. Ok back in from some great powder skiing. Granted my nearly 40 year old knees don’t as well as the used to. Diamond and double D were much easier 20 years ago but I had a blast.

    Looking over things I suspect the NAM will be close to verifying. Probably overdone on QPF but not by much if that track holds. I think EURO comes in with close to 2 inches QPF. I would suspect WSW posted by tonight for over 12 inches for most of the area. And yes to me south coast is toward the south not just south of Boston. I thu k Boston needs 14 inches to break all time snowiest month and I think it shall happen.

        1. I’m not sure it’s a dream. It may be unlikely but still very plausible given the colder/stronger trend that we are likely to see.

  67. Just got on the computer and read the posts.

    Just a quick note and question: I have no meteorological background except for a love of the weather since I was 6 or 7 yrs. old, when a neighbor told me that tornadoes come out of a clear sky. I had to look that up and that was just one of the things that has piqued my interest and love of the weather. My question is: is it still ok if I give a “gut feeling” opinion on any storm or weather situation? Frankly, I’m not too good at figuring out winter storms – but I like to try to figure out summer storms.

      1. Surely it is okay. It’s an open forum and a free country. Nothing wrong with stating one’s opinion. Some of us have knowledge and TK has a lot of knowledge but doesn’t always mean we’re going to be right. It’s fun to dissect the various model solutions and analyze the overall weather pattern and yes, even give a gut feeling in order to try to depict an accurate forecast. I welcome ALL comments unless the comments are downright rude with intent to hurt.

      1. No problem. We just got his reports from his blood test today. Everything is normal. But, he still has a problem and we’re both kind of nervous for his appt. on March 1st. Thanks for asking! BTW – when will your roof and wall get finished? Have they started work on it yet?

        1. Blood work is great news and I will keep you in my thoughts for March 1. Sheetrock and some ceiling are pulled and heaters/dehumidifiers are running. We may have those removed tomorrow so we can at least function. As it is to adjust heat in back of house we have to go out the front door and in the side door. So far it’s just amusing us 🙂 Thank you for asking !!!

    1. Do you have the lastest snowfall map from the NWS? I want to see how their map continues to trend higher with future runs.

    1. I wouldn’t say they are ALWAYS in the big snow zone but:

      1) These towns are located away from the immediate coast line and are therefore not often under the influence of the marine layer except in strong November-December storms where ocean temps are still quite warm (mid upper 40’s).

      2) Geographically, Westwood and Dedham is also north of the southshore and west of 128 keeping these locations safe from the boundary layer.

      3) And most important, often a deformation zone or coastal front sets up along or just east of the Westwood area where a battle exists between the cold air from a northerly wind direction and the warm marine layer from an easterly wind direction. It is along this battle zone where the heaviest axis of snow exists in such a set up.

      4) I’m very lucky 😀

  70. Nam= block buster snows. over done amounts.
    gfs not so much of a block buster with more rain than snow.for all of the coastal plain
    euro= less snow than the nam but more snow than the gfs?

  72. Thanks, Hadi, alisonarod and Tom. I have no gut feelings about this storm – just worried that if we continue getting a lot of snow during the rest of the winter and we get a rapid warmup that there would be flooding problems. Hopefully it will be a gradual warmup come spring.

  73. Not sure this Euro run will give any us a “final answer.” I have been thinking the 12z on Friday might give us a clear picture of what we will get.

  74. Here’s a question just to prove I have no meteorological background! 🙂 I keep seeing people post about the “king”. My guess: king=Euro??

  75. 27mins ago…Looks like everyone’s waiting on the Euro!

    Todd Gutner ‏@ToddWBZ

    Waiting to see the EURO run then will have big storm update on WBZ News at 5pm…see you then!

    2. Charlie, I was in that area over the weekend. Albany county is bare ground with just a few patches where piles were. Just west of there in Gloversville where I stayed, there was a good half foot on the ground. It was weird, im used to driving from here when theres bare ground, to out there where theres usually a good snow pack.

  80. Barry Burbank ‏@BarryWBZ

    Tough call on rain/snow line Saturday night into early Sunday. Probably close to or just north of the MA Pike then collapsing southward.

  83. Barry Burbank ‏@BarryWBZ

    NO blockbuster this weekend. Latest guidance leaning to just a few inches of snow closer to Boston Sunday morning into part of the aft’n.

  84. @BarryWBZ: NO blockbuster this weekend. Latest guidance leaning to just a few inches of snow closer to Boston Sunday morning into part of the aft’n.

  87. Barry Burbank ‏@BarryWBZ

    Most reasonable prediction calls for 4-8″ of snow with a few higher totals Saturday night into early Sunday afternoon north & west of Boston

    1. Mark is that it’s closest pass to SNE or is that after it rides up the coast and goes ESE due to blocking?

      1. Tough to tell without seeing the 3 hour increments but if it gets any further north than that latitude, it isn’t by much.

    1. when the weatherunderground maps come out in a bit, we will see more detail. But this run is clearly less QPF.

  94. Arod, thanks for answer. I have heard Todd refer to your area as a snow zone before.

    As for Euro, current run has a semi – OTS look to it. Of course I am no model reader and I am never sure whether a run is clean or flawed.

  95. I wouldn’t necessarily get caught up on this one run. Hadi has said many times that the Euro has a tendancy to “lose” the storm in the mid-range on a run before it comes right back. If 00z Euro says the same or worse, then we’ll have a real change in forecast. On to the 18z NAM

    1. Agree!!! Not a fan of putting much into a single run whetehr I like it or hate it. I come from an industry where models are used and if we see a change in a model we discount it until we get 3 consistent model runs in a row. (Actually though I do like snow, I could do without much this weekend.)

  96. Barry has the right idea, but even he’s overdoing it with snow amounts for Boston. Really, I don’t think this is going to be much at all for Boston and points south, unless one is truly inland. Here, I mean 15-20 miles inland.

    OS, I love your posts, and respect what you do and say. But, I’m 48, and no I’ve never in my life seen truly accumulating snow when it’s 36 degrees. I guess one would have to define “accumulating snow” as of course lots of snow (burst) coming out of the sky may briefly show up as an inch or 2 on the ground or on grassy surfaces (not on pavement) but with no staying power whatsoever.

    And, one has to factor in how relatively warm tomorrow and Saturday will be. The ground and pavement warm up very quickly in February when it’s in the upper 30s and 40s. If the storm was last night or today or tonight, different story. Wouldn’t be talking about temp issues. But, it’s coming on the heels of stale, cold air with very little in the form of cold air behind. Check out the temps in Southern Quebec (say, Montreal) on Friday and Saturday: Low to mid 30s. That’s where the `cold’ air is coming from, and it ain’t cold. This is not 1 April, 1997, when the day before the storm hit and the day of the storm temp differentials between Boston and Montreal were significant (20 degrees or more).

    1. I’ve seen accumulating snow at 40 degrees. Also, if the latest EC were to verify, snow accumulations wouldn’t be cut down due to rain. It would be because the storm is tracking too far southeast of our area to give us a major impact. Still even if this EC run verified, Boston still sees 6+ inches 😀

    2. Joshua,

      I have a number of years on you, and I assure you I have seen what
      I described above. The snow accumulated everywhere, roads included.
      BTW, in one of those storms, Don Kent was commenting on how much snow
      had fallen with temps in the mid 30s.

      If the Euro is correct, then it may be moot as the intensity just may not be there.

      Still a couple of days. We shall see.

      1. OS, Alisonrod: I respectfully disagree. It makes no sense at all for snow to be able to accumulate with surface temperatures in the mid to upper 30s (with the exception noted above: an inch or 2 of that `accumulates’ only because of the intensity of the burst of snow). It can and often does snow when surface temps are above freezing, yes. But the surface needs to be at freezing or below for any real accumulation. Granted, if today was Saturday, and the ground and surface were still cold, snow could briefly accumulate with temps in the mid to upper 30s, but even then it would melt very soon after it `accumulated.’ Most importantly, Saturday will not be like today. The ground will be relatively warm, especially from tomorrow’s late February sun.

        1. Josh: The ground often times is colder than surface temps. Even though surface temps have been in the 40s, ground temps can still be below freezing. In this time of year, it takes a lot more than a couple of 40 degree days to warm the ground above freezing. I think you are confusing ground temperature with surface temperatures. Ground temps are often (and in this case) much colder than the actual air temperature outside.

          I have said my peace. You don’t have to believe OS or me. Refer to TK regarding this manner and perhaps he can explain it to you better.

  97. Barry Burbank ‏@BarryWBZ

    Boston needs 9.4 more inches of snow to make this the snowiest February on record- beating 41.3″ in 2/69. As of now, I’m looking @ 6-7″!

  98. Euro text output for Boston:

    SUN 00Z 24-FEB 0.8 -1.3 1017 97 96 0.07 551 537
    SUN 06Z 24-FEB 1.9 -0.7 1011 97 86 0.32 547 538
    SUN 12Z 24-FEB 2.6 -1.3 1007 96 86 0.19 542 536
    SUN 18Z 24-FEB 1.3 -3.7 1005 99 99 0.36 537 533
    MON 00Z 25-FEB 0.5 -7.4 1009 93 100 0.26 536 528
    MON 06Z 25-FEB -2.8 -7.1 1014 92 81 0.11 539 528

    Still 1.25″ of QPF and 850mb temps remain below freezing throughout. The last .73″ looks to fall as snow so 6 or 7″ maybe? The first batch of precip is a tough call – may mix for awhile and will be tougher to accumulate. Looks like below double digit accumulations on that run for sure. At least that’s how I am reading it.

      1. Mark not sure where your ECMWF data is coming from, but just a heads up the ECMWF can be pretty militant about the redistribution of their data that is considered proprietary. They charge a lot of money for their data output and don’t like it redistributed for free. I would just hate to see this blog suffer any repercussions. It is the cut and paste and straight repost that can cause issues. Not saying not to do it, just something to think about.

        2. It’s coming from those posting it on the Accuweather Forum. Some of the folks on there have AccuweatherPro accounts I believe where they are getting it from. You make a good point JMA that I had not even thought of and will stop posting this output if TK feels these type of posts are putting this blog in jeopardy. I am not the only one doing it on here, and in most cases the Euro output and maps are just reposts and retweets from other sources and mets.

          1. Certainly not my place to say what can be posted and not posted. The ECMWF seems to make very little content available for free and leaves most the detailed content for the use by its paying clients and they tend be aggressive in protecting those rights.

            A stray map here or there is not going to cause too of much a problem….

  100. Don’t like the 12z. It is still producing nearly 1.3 QPF in Boston, but over a 36 hour period from a 1000mb low that is way south and east, yet has the high oriented in a manner that does makes complete sense for its low placement.

    I don’t think this is a particularly big storm and I think we do lose some of the QPF that does fall to rain or a mix anyway, but I am quite confident that the 12z ECMWF is not the solution.

      1. Of course you can trust it, but you have to interpret it with what actually makes sense. I get a kick out of all these TV mets acting like their whole forecasts depends upon the next model run of a single model. It is a an excellent, model but it is part of a suite of forecast tools to be used in conjunction with knowledge and experience….

  104. The EC certainly raises an eyebrow. Both my eyebrows will be raised with both eyes bulged open if the next EC run trends in a similar manner. One run is not a trend. My forecast remains as is…..for now.

  106. Look, the Euro run is not a massive change for Boston. QPF is down from 1.59″ to 1.25″ and 850mb temps still remain below freezing for the duration. We’re probably talking the difference between 6-7″ of snow and 9-10″ for Boston. Yes, it’s less, but it’s still a significant impact either way.

      1. That is part of my issue. We get way too hung up on QPF as opposed to dynamics of the storm within the modeled climatic structure. The QPF the 12z is producing makes little sense for the weaker dynamics is is portraying. Add to its temp and thickness profiles don’t make sense west to east and north to south, it tells me the model is confused and is throwing out conflicted data, wanting to run home to mommy but unsure where home is.

  107. rain line makes it to the mass pike and to 495 colapses around midnight. rain line reaches southeast mass sunday morning. southcoast around noon outer cape after 3pm. light accumulations east of i95 moderate from i95 to 495 and south of the pike. moderate to heavy along and north of the pike and along and north of 495. this is only an early guess. will like to see tomorrows runs.

  108. 12Z Euro at hour 66:

    http://home.comcast.net/~dhinchli/pwpimages/EURO%283%29.jpg

    at hour 78:

    http://home.comcast.net/~dhinchli/pwpimages/Euro1%281%29.jpg

    Notice that blob of blue higher qpf WAY to the NW of the center.

    Also, fyi 850mb temps get VERY close to Boston for about 6 hours on this run.
    And it is an East-West orientation, so it goes to Worcester out to the Berkshires as well.

    pecip could go either way. Best chance of all snow North of Pike.

    Now of course this was one run. We need to see more. But I sure don’t like the trend.
    The storm stays as far South this run as the 0Z run, but the 950mb temps come 50
    miles or so farther North, probably due to it being a less intense system.

  109. I’m not sure what my forecast is, I always thought 2 3rds of this storm would be rain for the Boston Providence corridor points east, I do think there will be snow too but I’m going with nam runs next 36 hrs then now casting, 1 thing is that the models continue to struggle with snow rain lines and some models that we have grown to dislike doesn’t even know what’s going on bringing the rain line to Worcester, geeez what a mess, anyways have a good afternoon everyone 🙂

  110. I’m sticking with my original forecast. The EC will come back on its next run. As JMA alluded to, one model run doesn’t mean much unless it supports its preceding run.

    1. Did JMA alluded that the storm should trend north and colder or was it more about the output did not make sense? Why so much precip north of a week storm?

          1. I think he was saying with a weaker system, the
            qpf was overdone. Didn’t really discuss snowier or not, one way or the other, unless I am mis-remembering and at my age, that easy to do. 😀

    2. I do agree with u, 1 model run shouldn’t really alter much, now like u said if tonight it’s saying the same well then changes r coming but will c

  111. Acemaster, regarding your post above: what were you doing in Gloversville, NY of all places? I grew up in Amsterdam, about 8 miles from there and have family who run a couple restaurants up near there on Sacandaga Lake. I know you went to Siena, but just curious!

    1. Funny you should ask. My roommate at Siena is from Gloversville and i was up visiting. I was also buying an engagement ring of all things, lol. My roommates family owns a jewelry store in downtown Gloversville.

  112. We shall see what happens. Nam is pretty much all alone.

    JMA those outputs are posted into a public forum on accuweather and have been posted for years, wouldn’t have someone told them to stop by now.

    1. You’d be amazed how many years can go by before someone starts screaming about their proprietary property. My guess is if someone paying for it, and someone else is getting it for free, they’ll start cracking down sooner or later.

      1. Clearly the UKMET and Canadian are still on board with a very strong and cold solution. I won’t be sold based upon the UKMET and Canadian, however, I do feel this was just a blip from the EURO and it will come back around. The GFS is out to lunch.

  115. At what point do the medium to long range models lose their sensitivity short term? In other words, at what point do we start looking less at the details of the euro/gfs/cmc/ukie and more at the shorter range models like the NAM with better resolution that can pick up on smaller details like exact track, temps, p-type, etc.

    1. Harvey Leonard ‏@HarveyWCVB
      I’ll have the latest on The Sat. Nt./Sunday storm on NewsCenter 5 from 5 to 6:30pm.
      Expand Reply Retweet Favorite More
      3 mins Harvey Leonard ‏@HarveyWCVB
      Boston and coastal areas will get most of their accumulating snow Sunday during the day.
      Expand
      3 mins Harvey Leonard ‏@HarveyWCVB
      Coastal areas will have wet snow possibly mixed with rain (and mainly rain on Cape Cod) Sat. Nt.
      Expand
      4 mins Harvey Leonard ‏@HarveyWCVB
      General idea is most accumulating snow Sat. nt. will be inland & along & north of Ma Pike

  120. Hey TK is now famous:

    Barry Burbank ‏@BarryWBZ
    @csmith1996 This is a tougher call then the BIG ONE 2 weeks ago! I am thinking 6-9″ right now for that area. What do u think Topkatt?

          1. OH, how did you know that?
            Weird. I would have sworn on a stack of bibles
            that it was our TK.

            Oh well, Next….

    1. Sure looks interesting.

      Barry Burbank ‏@BarryWBZ
      Massive weather block to unfold and expand over the next week. It will be interesting to see how it all shakes out here in the Northeast.
      Expand Reply Retweet Favorite More
      48 mins Barry Burbank ‏@BarryWBZ
      But additional rain to wet snow of long duration next Wed. & Thur could put the total over the top into the #1 slot beating 41.3″ in 2/69!

  122. Would like TK’s thoughts on latest EC. I suspect he won’t waiver from his original snowier and colder forecast just yet.

  124. a lot of you guys were arguing yesterday that the GFS can’t be right with the warm solution because of the the strong blocking ( don’t know what it really is called) would not let the low hug the coast. However it appears that maybe this is the blocking that is going to hurt us and send the low outer to sea.

    1. Yup,

      Sometimes blocking helps us and sometimes it hurts.
      Btw, without the block, this system would have been
      an inside runner, if not a lakes cutter. 😀

      1. The strong block setting up for the near and distant future could potentially shunt a lot of storms south, giving the mid atlantic some good snows

  127. BZ is clearly riding the euro

    @TerryWBZ: No big changes to forecast this weekend, widespread 6-8″, bit less Coast/SE bit more Worcester Hills S NH

    1. They were actually riding the GFS for a while but the latest EC confirmed their current thinking. I still feel the EC will revert to a colder, stronger solution on its next run. The only thing that has me concerned is that the pieces of energy are now over land so perhaps the EC has picked up on something.

  130. Bc this storm might not be as strong alot less snow esp south and east of Boston won’t draw that cold air to it

  131. ok…..
    Just looking now.
    Euro showing general 6-8. Still showing quite a deep snowpack building through the period.

    NAM time right.

  134. Arod – regarding your post above. The 12z Canadian run is NOT a strong and cold run. It torches us with warmth and has mostly rain all the way up to the VT/NH border with virtually no back end snows. Low makes a very close pass but is not that strong (>1000 mb at closest pass). Virtually no snow in Boston from that run.

    1. Oh I understand that Mark. I’m just not convinced that the 540 line goes up into NH with a storm going over the BM as demonstrated by the Canadian, UKMET despite the lack of strong cold H.

  137. Ok, took another look at the NAM. It’s not great, but its not terrible either. I think we have to take knee-deep snow off the table and reset to a more moderate or marginally heavy event and live to fight for next week sometime.

  138. Here is the 18Z NAM snow map:

    http://www.instantweathermaps.com/NAM/2013022118/USA_ASNOWIPER_sfc_081.gif

    Even with this, there will be rain all the way to NH Border. Here is surface and 850mb
    chart at it farthest Northern point:

    http://mag.ncep.noaa.gov/Image.php?model=nam&area=namer&param=850_temp_mslp_precip&cycle=18&image=nam%2F18%2Fnam_namer_057_850_temp_mslp_precip.gif

    Look at the SE to NW orientation of that 0C line and it is reflected with the snow
    totals. This is the effect of the HIGH to the NE. Strange set up.

    WHY so different from 12Z. It is 18Z and it does NOT have all the data points.
    But even so, it stinks and I don’t like it.

    0Z time!!!

    This is looking more and more like a schizophrenic storm with 2 parts.
    First part = Rain, second part = Snow.
    I HATE storms like that.

    Hopefully, the models will figure it out for the 0Z run, UNLESS of course, they
    have already figured out, but we’re not listening? 😀 😀

        1. Yes,
          They are blocking me. I’ll shut down my computer and come back and post it. Sorry. I have the correct links above, but Instant MAP is not allowing it through.

  139. I realize the Euro has been reliable, but how can anyone be all in based on a single run? If the Euro keeps repeating its latest trend, I get it. But until then, it could swing the other way, continue with the current track or go OTS.

    This is the danger of putting up snow maps on Tues night for a Sat night event.

    1. Couldnt’ agree more regarding snow maps. However, none of the models today are pointing to a major snowstorm for Boston with the exception of the 12z NAM. My guard is still up and will await the oz runs. If the EC stands ground, I will have to back off on my current forecast.

  141. 18Z nam is different…that’s about all I have to say about that. After 00z runs we will have a better handle on this storm one way or the other. I just can’t see the r/s line making it up to the NH border especially with the first wave of precip coming overnight and low where it is. We were spoiled with the blizzard with how consistent and in line all the models were. Back to model mayhem.

  142. you kow what i just relized. im pretty much certain all the people saying these models stink.. live south of the pike 😛

    1. they aren’t saying the models stink in the context in which you think—they just aren’t happy with the results the models are outputting.

      1. yeah i know that alisonarod. but a part of me is happy about this track. more north and west of boston than south and east. 😀

  144. Since the energy is now on land, one must take the EC seriously even though it is one run. I won’t bite just yet but I will take a big bite out of my snow amounts if the oz run is weak and warm.

  145. I don’t think I see 4 inches in CT. It looks like a mess with a change to snow on the back side. I would not read to much into the 12z EURO. If the 0z EURO comes up with the same solution then I think we got to go with it.
    Where it does stay snow I am think level 2 snow event.

    1. Oh Boy, I must be on their S**T list.

      Still not linking.

      AH, they can’t stop me. Hold on a minute. I’ll be back.

        1. Sorry I cut off the bottom of the scale.
          The last darker pink/reddish color is 11-12 inches.
          The next light yellow color is 12-14 inches.

        2. Wow. The NAM has really backed off. If you cut those totals in half, then it looks like 6-8 inches of snow as the EC demonstrated on its last run. Perhaps the trend is for a weaker storm and with less dynamic cooling, mixing could take longer to change to heavy snow thus cutting down on snow accumulations. This is what the local METS are concerned with–less phasing resulting in a weaker storm resulting in a warmer storm. The 0z runs will be very important early tomorrow morning.

          1. Yes, that is what it looks like. We agree once again.

            However, we can’t put too much stock in an 18Z
            run. The 0Z runs will be telling. Those might
            seal the deal.

            With a weaker system, that 850mb 0C line moves MUCH farther North. IF we had a true Arctic High, it wouldn’t be an issue, but we don’t, so it is.

            1. Couldn’t agree with you more OS. Perfectly said! And I also agree that the 0z run will be telling. Hopefully if it is a weaker, warmer solution that the suburbs of Boston can still pick up a good half a foot of snow after the changeover.

  148. Regarding this weekend’s storm, it is interesting to see model convergence earlier this week, only to dissipate as the week progresses. I still see rain and perhaps lots of it Saturday night into Sunday, that is, for Boston and points south and along the coast. After a pick-of-the-week day (Monday), the coming week will likely feature the first cut-off low in a very long time. Ugly weather to say the least. Typical in spring in coastal New England, these lows tend to make Boston look like Edinburgh for days on end: Dreary, some wind, cold rain (maybe a wet flake mixed in), the worst possible stuff in my view. We’ve been blessed with so much sun this fall and winter. Can’t complain. But, we were due for an extended period of dreariness and I think it’s about to happen. The precipitation deficit may be history once we’re past this long stretch of inclement weather with a few sunny breaks here and there.

    Alisonrod: Thank you for your input, and your knowledge. You bring a lot to the table, and I appreciate it. I do know the distinction between surface and ground temps. In Holland, weather forecasters will often let you know when the temp outside is, say, 35, that the ground may be colder. And this tends to happen in the darkest months: December and January. They warn people of the possibility of black ice formation even if the thermometer says 35. This said, from tomorrow at 9am through Saturday, into Sunday, we may not get to 32. February sun will warm things up very quickly, however, especially on surfaces with no snow (pavement, exposed grass). The 39 they’re calling for tomorrow is probably an underestimate. I think 42 is a possibility tomorrow, with upper 30s very likely all day Saturday.

    1. Actually, snow cover over paved surfaces can create a warmer ground vs a non-snow covered surface due to thermal insulation due to snow 😉

  149. If local mets are leaning towards the newest euro, why does channel 7 still have a big area 10-16? Just less south?

    1. Because they haven’t changed their snowfall map from this morning when the 12Z NAM dumped on the area with 1-2 feet of snow.

          1. Lol I just watched it in shock his “I’m not joking, I wouldn’t put up this map if I didn’t see it ”

            Apparently he doesn’t think to highly of the 12z

  150. Ok, NAM 32 Wet bulb into S. New Hampshire back to Berks at 18Z Sat., then gets to the canal by 00z Sunday then migrates back north to S.S/Providence, Milford Ct. Line by 6z Sunday.

    1. I went through that crap last night. I should have done this for a career. I’ve never gotten up in the middle of the night for my job except for panic attacks.

      1. LOL! These models are giving me chest pain and panic attacks. However, I’m not that worried. I have discounted the GFS entirely and monitoring the NAM and especially the EC. I do think the EC will come back around. If it doesn’t, it’s time to curtail snowfall amounts.

    1. Love those mountain snows. Looks like Bretton Woods has been experiencing similar snows all day. Very happy for the skiers, like you, but also the resort operators and businesses. Last year was such a bad season.

  155. I think this is 90% rain Plymouth west to 24 west to just south of Taunton to just south of Providence to just south of Hartford, also I’m concerned that the meat and potatoes or the heaviest precip pass’s the area before the rain snow line collapses south and east leaving just light snows on the backside, just a thought 😉

  157. 18Z GFS is totally and completely laughable. Again, NO SNOW in or even near Boston.
    0C line to NH border. Another lousy run.

    0Z runs are going to be mighty interesting.

    18Z GFS at 63 hours. LOOK where that 0C line is:

    http://mag.ncep.noaa.gov/Image.php?model=gfs&area=namer&param=850_temp_mslp_precip&cycle=18&image=gfs%2F18%2Fgfs_namer_063_850_temp_mslp_precip.gif

    Look, are we all just being stubborn? Perhaps this is what is meant to be? 😀

    Charlie’s forecast being realized! 😀 😀 😀

    1. Note the northeast placement of the H on the 18Z GFS. That positioning would result in strengthening an easterly wind thereby causing a slower changeover to snow. I think the GFS is a true outlier. It will be a blend of the NAM and EC. If the 0z trends weaker/warmer, all bets are off.

  158. HPC 2:15 Update:

    …SURFACE LOW DEVELOPING OVER THE SOUTHEAST EARLY SATURDAY AND
    INTENSIFYING OFF THE NEW ENGLAND COAST SATURDAY NIGHT INTO
    SUNDAY…
    PREFERENCE: ECMWF/UKMET COMPROMISE
    CONFIDENCE: AVERAGE

    MODELS ARE IN AGREEMENT WITH SLOWING DOWN A COLD FRONT AS IT
    APPROACHES THE SOUTHEAST AND THEN DEVELOPING A SURFACE LOW ALONG
    THE BOUNDARY BY EARLY SATURDAY. HOWEVER…DIFFERENCES BEGIN TO
    DEVELOP WITH STREAKING A PIECE OF ENERGY ALOFT THROUGH THE LOWER
    MISSISSIPPI/TENNESSEE VALLEYS LATE SATURDAY AND AMPLIFYING THE
    ENERGY AS IT EXITS THE NORTHERN MID-ATLANTIC/NEW ENGLAND COAST
    EARLY SUNDAY. THESE SLIGHT DIFFERENCES ALOFT LEAD TO SOME MODEL
    SPREAD WITH THE EXACT TRACK/TIMING/STRENGTH OF THE DEVELOPING
    SURFACE LOW. THE NAM GETS TO BE A DEEP/FAST OUTLIER WITH TRACKING
    THE LOW OFF THE MID-ATLANTIC COAST AND TOWARDS SOUTHERN NEW
    ENGLAND…WHILE THE GFS IS ON THE SLOWER SIDE OF MODEL SPREAD.
    THE CMC IS LEAST AGGRESSIVE WITH AMPLIFYING THE ENERGY ALOFT AND
    THEREFORE A WEAK OUTLIER WITH THE SURFACE LOW. FOR NOW…WILL
    RECOMMEND A MIDDLE-OF-THE-ROAD SOLUTION FOR THIS FEATURE WHICH IS
    BEST DEPICTED BY A COMPROMISE BETWEEN THE ECMWF/UKMET.

  159. PB is pulling out all the stops and is not in agreement with the 12Z EURO. He still feels confident that a good chunk of the area just west and north of Boston sees 10-16 inches. Watch the one time he doesn’t bite that he ends up being wrong again. The poor guy can’t catch a break.

    1. That can’t be right. It’s funny how the NWS is forecasting 1-2 inches in locations where PB is forecasting 10-16!” Nobody has a clue as to what is really going to happen since the models are diverging.

  161. If the 0z runs and 12z runs show that solution I will buy it.
    This is looking more and more of a mess rather than a big snow producer.

  163. Good afternoon all. 🙂

    The priorities today included a trip to the grocery story with my mom. No, not because of a storm, just a regular trip. Though I did get milk and bread because I NEEDED them. The store I went to, normally very busy, was no worse than usual. I suspect tomorrow evening and Saturday morning will be a zoo, as many people still react as if we’re going to be snowed in for months for even moderate storms. 🙂

    A couple quick points before I start working on the new blog:

    * I am not from Marblehead, nor do I drive a plow.

    * Yes I have not changed from the previous thinking, other than a little less QP may mean that the double-digit snow totals are much more difficult to attain other than in isolated locations.

    * We dive into a massive block-induced stretch of unsettled weather starting on Wednesday. Does it mean big storms and big snows? Not necessarily. It probably means less intense storminess but of very long duration, and it probably starts wet and becomes white as the entire atmosphere gets colder with time. If Boston is going to break the snow record, it will probably be done on the final day of this month…

    2. Thanks TK. To me it sounds like you did indeed change your thinking quite a bit. There is a big difference between the 0z EURO from this morning to this afternoon’s 12z EURO. With less qpf, that tells me that the storm will be weaker. A weaker storm could mean less in the way of dynamic cooling and thus a warmer solution to cut down on snow totals. That’s a big change from what we thought would happen early this afternoon.

    1. Clearly TK is favoring the 12z EURO and has changed his tune. I can’t say I blame him but will await the 0z runs early tomorrow morning.

  167. Guys, the 18z GFS is not that bad. (Well, maybe it is because it’s the GFS)

    Check out the one right on its heels for Tuesday.

      1. There seems to be distant war drums beating for that one A-Rod with mets.

        Will worry about precip. type for that one on Sunday. Just glad to see it on the map.

    2. That’s what I’m talking about but I do believe there will be rain snow lines there too but way early, very busy nevertheless

  168. I disagree with Taunton less than 1 inch. Sorry not gonna happen. I still think this will be colder than nam or GFS. Euro still shows 6+ for most of the area.

    1. Exactly. I still think the set up will be the same. Rain/snow line briefly makes it up to Boston and along the pike before collapsing southeast. The only wrinkle is that the storm seems less intense resulting in slightly lower snow totals. My forecast stands pending the 00z EURO.

  171. and finally 00z King has a slightly colder look bringing 32 almost and I say almost to northern and western flank of 495

    1. It can snow when wet bulb temperatures are above 32 degrees but only in the presence of very low humidity.

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