The Week Ahead

103 Comments

5:14PM

The first week of April 2013 will be a week of changing weather. It starts with low pressure lifting away to the northeast for April Fool’s Day, but it’s no joke that it will be a mild day. However it does carry a shower and thunderstorm threat as a secondary cold front approaches (the first having gone through pre-dawn ending a good slug of rain tonight). This front, when it passes, will deliver a late-season shot of cold air for Tuesday & Wednesday, followed by milder weather Thursday as high pressure that first builds in from Canada sinks to the south and a westerly wind develops. But another cold front will deliver some chilly air for Friday and a wave of low pressure passing south of New England Friday night and early Saturday will bring the chance of precipitation (rain and snow, with the snow depending on timing and intensity of precipitation). Things move along though, and the majority of next weekend should turn out ok with a chilly start and warmer finish.

Forecast for southeastern New England…

TONIGHT: Cloudy. Periods of rain, possibly a thunderstorm. Lows 40-45. Wind S 10-20 MPH gusting 20-30 MPH.

MONDAY: Variably cloudy. Chance of passing showers and possibly a thunderstorm, especially in the afternoon. Highs 50-55 south-facing shores, 56-61 elsewhere. Wind SW 10-20 MPH gusting 20-30 MPH.

MONDAY NIGHT: Partly cloudy. Lows 25-30 except 30-35 urban centers and immediate coast. Wind NW 10-20 MPH with higher gusts.

TUESDAY: Mostly cloudy. Highs 40-45. Wind W 10-20 MPH with higher gusts.

WEDNESDAY: Mostly sunny. Low 25. High 45.

THURSDAY: Partly sunny. Low 32. High 55.

FRIDAY: Mostly cloudy. Chance of rain/snow at night. Low 35. High 48.

SATURDAY: Partly sunny. Chance of rain/snow showers early. Low 33. High 46.

SUNDAY: Partly cloudy. Low 38. High 64.

103 thoughts on “The Week Ahead”

    1. Elevation and timing on this one…

      Outside of a “perfect” synoptic setup (April 6 1982, April 28-29 1987) it will be very difficult to get it to snow and to get it to stick now.

  3. Tk, Do you think April will be below or above average rain or temp wise? I believe we will end up will slightly above average temp wise with slightly above average for rain, again just my opinion, thanks again 🙂

  5. Thanks TK.
    How is everyone’s bracket looking and how many teams did you get right for the final four??? I only have one and that is Louisville who predicted would win the whole thing.

  6. Hopefully its a good final four. I would love to see Witchita State being a mid major win the whole thing but that will be tough against Louisville and Michigan against Syracuse nobody has figured out the Syracuse zone in the tournament with Syracuse giving up the lowest amount of points for any tournament team through their first four tournament games.
    I think were looking at an all big east final for the title game.

  7. Got .17 of rain so far, probably end up somewhere between a quarter, and a half inch of rain, another day tommorrow close to 60 degrees and possibly a tstorm tommorrow evening, doubtful but possible, I think Thu might be another day closer to 60 degrees depending on how much sun can shine, goodnight all 🙂

  8. I’d like to see the sun come out this morning, get the temps up a bit and see what happens when the cold front hits it.

    1. I was thinking the same Tom – wouldn’t mind a thunderstorm but didn’t hear any mention of it on the weather this morning. JR did say he felt we are snow free for at least 7 days.

  9. Thanks, TK.

    .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/…
    7 AM UPDATE…
    MINOR ADJUSTMENTS MADE THIS MORNING PRIMARILY TO BRING
    SKIES/TEMPS/DWPTS UP TO CURRENT TRENDS. ALREADY BEGINNING TO SEE A
    FAIR AMOUNT OF BREAKS IN THE CLOUDS BOTH ON SAT IMAGERY AND WEB
    CAMS. THIS WILL BE THE TREND THROUGH THE MORNING. LATEST
    NAMDNG/RAP HANDLED THIS WELL SO LEANED CLOSE TO THIS SOLUTION.
    ALSO ADJUSTED POP TIMING TOWARD LATEST RAP…WHICH HAS BEEN
    HANDLING THE PRECIP WELL AS IT MOVES THROUGH NY STATE. STILL
    SEEING OCCASIONAL LIGHTNING WITH IT…SO KEEPING ISO-THUNDER IN
    THERE AS WELL.

    PREVIOUS DISCUSSION…

    THE MAIN AREA OF SHOWERS HAS ALREADY LIFTED TO THE NORTHEAST OF THE
    REGION…BEHIND LAST EVENING/S WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE. A FEW
    LINGERING LIGHT SHOWERS AND SPOTTY DRIZZLE ACROSS SOUTHERN
    NH/NORTHEAST MA WILL COME TO AN END BY DAYBREAK.

    OTHERWISE…WEST TO SOUTHWEST FLOW AHEAD OF A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL
    YIELD DRY WEATHER WITH A MIX OF SUN AND CLOUDS THIS MORNING. GIVEN
    THE MILD START AND 850 MB TEMPS ABOVE 0C…EXPECT A MILD AND BREEZY
    DAY THROUGH EARLY AFTERNOON. GUIDANCE NUMBERS ARE PROBABLY TOO COOL
    AND EXPECT MUCH OF THE LOWER ELEVATIONS TO BREAK 60 WITH GUSTY WEST
    TO SOUTHWEST WINDS.

    THE STRONG COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE REGION FROM MID
    AFTERNOON INTO THE EARLY EVENING HOURS. VERY STRONG DYNAMICS ARE
    PRESENT WITH THIS FRONT ALONG WITH STEEP MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES. IN
    FACT…0 TO 6 KM SHEAR VALUES OF 70 TO 80 KNOTS ARE EXPECTED ALONG
    WITH PERHAPS A FEW HUNDRED J/KG OF CAPE. THIS WILL BE ENOUGH TO
    GENERATE SCATTERED SHOWERS AND PERHAPS A FEW ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS.
    THESE SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDER MAY YIELD BRIEF STRONG NORTHWEST WIND
    GUSTS OF 40 TO 50 MPH. THIS A RESULT OF A RAPID TEMPERATURE FALL
    AND ALSO VERY STRONG WINDS ALOFT. ITS NOT EVEN OUT OF THE QUESTION
    THAT A FEW SNOW FLAKES MIX IN AT THE END ACROSS THE INTERIOR…BUT
    CERTAINLY NOT LOOKING AT ANY ACCUMULATIONS. MUCH COLDER AIR WILL
    RUSH INTO THE REGION AS TEMPERATURES BY EARLY EVENING WILL HAVE
    FALLEN INTO THE 30S…TO MIDDLE 40S. WILL GO AHEAD AND ISSUE A
    SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT TO HIGHLIGHT THE POTENTIAL FOR THE 40 TO
    50 MPH WIND GUSTS WITH ANY SCT SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS THIS
    AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING.

    &&

    Sorry for the length of this but interesting info.

      1. Thanks, Vicki – not only would it be neat to have some thunderstorms but can you imagine if we get a thunderstorm and at the end of it a few snowflakes fall? 🙂

  10. Good morning all.

    Not going to post any maps as I am quite busy, but everything still seems up
    in the air. I will say all on air mets I viewed over the weekend called for RAIN
    on Friday with no mention of the “S” word at all.

    850mb temps are all over the place on the models, but most have a fairly robust
    system with pretty juicy qpfs. Some cold enough (aloft at least), some NOT.

    One Point: If the timing is right, the bulk of the precip will come at night.

    Right now, it looks more like Rain than it perhaps did yesterday, but it is still early.
    I wouldn’t totally write off snow, but odds would favor Rain at this time.

    Thoughts?

    We shall see.

  11. Agree OS. We’ve got the storm to move up the coast with a track near the benchmark looking likely, QPF is there, and bulk of the precip will occur at night. But the 850mb 0C temp line (as it looks now) will hug the Mass Pike so even with dynamic cooling in heavier precip, it won’t be enough to support snow in most areas, except maybe places like northern Worcester County, if the heavier precip gets up there. The fact that it will be 50 degrees during the day Friday doesn’t concern me as much given surface temps will drop significantly at the onset of darkness and heavier precip. The bigger issue is that this storm is very progressive with the NAO trending positive by that time. The storm may not have time to slow down and amplify enough, wrapping the colder air into the storm from the north.

    If this thing continues to trend stronger and slower, it could be a different story and many interior areas could end up with snow or a rain to snow situation. I just have a feeling that this thing is not going to end up an all rain situation everywhere. This is the perfect type of setup where we end up with one of our “surprise” April snowfalls. Way too early to make any calls at 4-5 days out.

  13. Still quite cold atop Mount Washington with snow and getting much colder through most of the week with tomorrow’s highs just above 0 (wind chills dangerously low). My guess is there will still be some accumulating snowfall up there, all the way down to the base at Pinkham Notch (2000 feet) throughout this week. From Hermit Lake Shelter (4000 feet) up to the rock pile and around Lakes of the Clouds (5000 feet) expect significant snowfall. Definitely a normal, NNE spring pattern in the mountains where snows and some very cold days really don’t end until sometime in May. Last year was an aberration. This year is more or less the norm.

    1. I talked to my brother yesterday and he thinks they have a few more weeks skiing at Sunapee. He said they got 11 inches a couple of weeks ago so still have a good natural base.

  14. I hope we do get one more decent snow storm only because I just witnessed the landscaping company at my office removing the plow stakes. 🙂

  16. Maintenence at my work took down snow stakes and put away all snow removal equipment this morning… We’re screwed now. 😉

    1. Don’t they consult with you on those decisions?

      If not, they sure should! Educate them! 😀

      1. Three of our neighbors were running the gas out of their snowblowers this past Saturday. My husband asked if he should do the same and I just looked at him…..he said he’d take that as a no 😉

      2. Sadly not much. And they are the type that take it wrong. Example: TK says “3-6 inches” and they hear “6 inches”.

    1. No one yet 🙂 It’s like saying the Bruins have won the game 2-1 when there is still 30 seconds left in the 3rd period. It’s not over till its over.

      1. Winter is over IMO, sometimes I think we here make winter pretend to last from Oct to June will overkill on chance, I told you there’s a chance I get hit by a bus today but I bet ya that’s not gonna happen, just not buying it, hope all is well mark 🙂

        1. We all know your opinion Charlie 🙂 You may very well be right at which point I will be over to your house for a pig roast and early dip in your pool. But its not a guarantee yet, at least for interior areas of SNE. I do believe if Friday night does not materialize, any subsequent chances for snow will be extremely slim.

  20. OS, I saw the Canadian model. It torches us and has the storm moving over NYC and CT with heavy precip all the way up to the Canadian border. Not even close to the GFS or Euro solutions. Every storm without fail, it has this warm bias and its track is on the far NW envelope of solutions. I really was hoping for better from this model after the upgrade.

  21. Brief report on our friends’ weather across the pond. Muted spring in Western Europe, to say the least. Remember those 60 degree days in early March that I was telling you about. Those have been a distant memory to folks across the British Isles and all of Northwestern Europe. It hasn’t been as cold as here, and certainly not nearly as snowy in March, but they did record the coldest Easter weekend in over 45 years in the Netherlands. By the way, their Easter weekend is Good Friday through Easter Monday. Saw pictures of the trees in Holland and almost no sign of light green leaves. That’s most unusual. By now, there’s almost always a light green hue in Holland. It is a beautiful color, but it also reminds me why I’m not so fond of spring. It’s ephemeral. From the cherry blossoms to the magnolia’s to the light green leaves, it never lasts long, unlike summer and summer flowers, and unlike fall foliage.

    1. Thanks Joshua. And I don’t plant too many spring flowers for that exact reason. Not that any of my flowers live of course. I laughed a few days ago when someone said you can’t kill poinsettias. I can actually kill silk flowers. But at least summer blooms last longer than a few weeks.

    1. Ugh, I forgot you were a NY fan, just like all my roommates at Siena! Although, I got a kick out of 2004 when i bought all of them a world series champ t-shirt 🙂

      1. Blog was kind of quiet – thought I’d try to get a rise out of someone 🙂 Though, not liking either the Yankees or Red Sox chances this year to be honest.

  23. Can’t call a winner yet. The State Climatologist would make you wait til July 1…one day after the end of the “snow year”. 🙂

  25. Just cracked 60 in Hartford.

    Roof is about to cave in though….front just moved through Albany, NY with hail and graupel. Temp 44 with a NW wind at 30 and wnd chill in the 30’s.

    Also just saw a report from Stowe, Vt that a snow squall moved through there and dropped about an inch. Big wet flakes the “size of small pine cones”

    1. My guess is there will be more than one inch on the western-facing slopes when all is said and done. It’ll basically be a blizzard at a place like Lakes of the Clouds (AMC hut), at least for a little while.

      1. Mt Washington was 25 with a 45 mph sustained wind and blowing snow last time I checked. Basically a white out!

        1. Check the temp in about an hour or two, it’ll be in the teens and tonight below zero, with gusts approaching 65-70 mph.

    1. Yes indeed, and there’s more on the way. I hike up there a lot, and even on short hikes up to 3000 feet up, the snow is really deep this time of year. It’s melting for sure, but often gets replenished in April and even May. There will likely be some `permanent’ snow on Tuckerman’s Ravine this year, which means there will be remnants of snow in the ravine, even in July and August.

  27. April is finally here! Our front yard is covered with snow crocuses, very pretty. Would love to see Jon Lester toss a gem in NYC today. On a more sour note, we have artillery mold and carpenter ants to contend with already.

  28. Leaving work at 3:00 today to attend this cool event:

    FOR IMMEDIATE RELEASE

    Rockland — Crowds prepare for Rockland’s famous Duffy Brothers to fly their F-14 “Tomcats” jets 100 feet over Union Street in Rockland center, as they will be covering their ears in preparation for the sonic boom.

    The notable shuttle captain Brian Duffy and his brother Timmy will be flying over Rockland center as a birthday homage to their mother. According to his biography from NASA, Brian Duffy was a veteran of four space flights from 1992 to 2000. He was also a trained pilot of the F-15.

    For the event, which is scheduled for April 1st at 5:06 p.m., the Rockland Police department will be closing down Union Street. A celebrating bunch of residents will be congregated at The Banner at 167 Union St. to celebrate the fly over. Banner owner Brenda Kelly said, “The town has a good time watching the fly-over. Rudy Child Sr. is one of the fly-over’s biggest fans and comes every year”, Kelly said.

    The police department said, “Police have already been receiving calls from residents asking for details about the fly over, namely questions regarding safety. Residents are being warned by the police to tape their windows to protect them from the sonic boom released by the jets.” A police detail would be available to guard the crowds that would gather to watch the event.

    Although this event was initially being cut by Federal and State budget funding issues, outgoing Selectman Bill Minahan has stepped up to fund his longtime friend Brian Duffy and make this event happen. Minahan stated in a recent interview that, “Brian looks forward to this each year and it means so much to him and the Town. I would not want money to stand in the way of carrying on such a great Rockland tradition.”

    This is a great annual Rockland family event and many will bring their cameras. It has become a memorable Rockland tradition.

    1. Wow – I hope the weather holds, Sue. I didn’t think sonic booms were allowed any more – or is it ok with special permission? Have fun – let us know!!!

  30. 61 degrees still but getting very dark in Manchester, CT with the squall line approaching. Sky looks more like a summertime thunderstorm is approaching. Just heard it is thundering just SW of here in Southington.

    Rain has now gone over to wet snow as close by as Lenox, MA in the Berkshires…

  31. 12z Euro is a miss with the Friday night event. Really thought it would inch north closer to the Canadian/GFS solutions but it is actually taking the storm even further out to sea.

  32. Heavy rain and HAIL now now in Manchester, CT. It’s pinging off the windows.

    Looks like another thunderstorm cell has formed ahead of the main squall line just SE of Worcester along the Mass Pike. Heading towards you Vicki!

    1. Just started raining here. I don’t hear any thunder. Temp 59.4 on this side of line. The clouds ahead of the line are fascinating. You are right that it looks like a summer sky

        1. Blue sky and wind driven rain – appears to be a small cell ahead of the line. Maybe I’m seeing it wrong.

  33. From Stowe, VT:

    “Wow. Thundersnow and pure whiteout at times. Was not expecting thunder and lightning. Resort went on hold for a half hour.”

    1. Brightening off to the southeast now – but to the northwest it’s dark. Does look like a summer sky. Sun is in an out in Sudbury – kind of sandwiched between precip. Doppler shows line of showers just to our west. Moving fast, ‘though.

      1. All of a sudden everything got eerily quiet. No wind, no rain. The calm before the storm?? Awesome to watch it develop.

  35. Vicki – It got very quiet here, too.

    Wind has picked up again and we are getting light rain in Sudbury – for now. Doppler radar shows line of rain just nearby. I would post the link for doppler radar but it’s moving fast and there’s nothing severe, at this point. ‘Though rain looks heavier to the south, as Mark reported.

    1. Whoops – Special weather statement just came out saying line of heavy showers w/possible hail and heavy rain from Boston area mainly south.

      1. repeated myself w/heavy showers and heavy rain. Sometimes I think too fast and type too fast.

  36. When I went outside an hour ago, it was 60*. The 38 MPH wind and rainshower brought me inside. Now, it’s 49*, sunny, and raining at the same time. You’d think Mother Nature would make up her mind! I wanted to do yardwork!

  37. Looks as if my daughter is in for a bit of rough weather in Uxbridge. Definitely stronger area from southern Worcester Cty into CT. It may be moving your way Charlie and North!!!! The small cell that went through here a short while ago seems to have gotten larger from Cambridge and to the north.

  40. We had about 30 min of rain, 1 min of hail, a cloud to ground lightning bolt and a couple claps of thunder here in Manchester, CT. Temp dropped from 61 to 48 in 1 hour. A little spring/summer preview.

    Now here comes winter again. Current obs. from Pittsfield: Moderate snow, 33 degrees, NW wind to 21mph, Wind chill 23, Visibility 1/2 mile

  43. Temp just crashing here! We’re down to 42 now in Manchester, CT now – a drop of about 20 degrees in just over 90 minutes!! Wet snow now mixing in west of here in Torrington.

  44. Super dark here as well. Nice bolt of lightening within the past minute and the
    resulting crack of thunder.

    😀

  45. Rain coming down heavier now w/occasional loud rumbles of thunder. Wind is gusty. First thunderstorm of the season for some of us!

  46. Btw,
    re: Friday system
    Model Divergence, so what else is new?

    12Z Euro takes it TOTALLY OTS.

    So, more watching. 😀

    1. Ensemble mean is farther north though and still spreads some precip in here, so you would have to imagine there a few (several?) members that look more like the GFS and Canadian. I don’t see this thing going totally OTS but until the Euro op comes farther NW, can’t get too excited.

  51. Well, as I see above, your all experiencing what I’m seeing to my north and west ….. Very dark skies, occasional thunder and lightning and a sky thats July like, looks like a squall with the esatern part of the sky still crystal clear and a howling sw wind.

  52. Lots of instability just southwest and south of Boston – that’s where the action is. Up here to the NW of the city we’ve had some light to briefly moderate showers but that’s about it. A couple of gusts of wind maybe 25-30 MPH.

  53. Daughter said there was a lot of lighting and loud cracks of thunder in Uxbridge. We only had one good crack. It amazing how thunderstorms make me feel like a kid …. Very exciting !!!

  55. 29 more days of classes
    33 more days including finals.of needing to go to the college
    46 days including weekends and finals
    a professional day this friday.
    on that 46 the day after the last final i want it 85 or hotter and to stay that way until october 🙂
    leamonade or punch sounds good to me with some streetlight manifesto. and hanging out with my mom and then waving at my brothers while they do homework until june 26th. 😛

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