Droughts Start This Way

65 Comments

11:12PM

For many months I have felt we would be heading into some sort of drought in 2013. I still feel this way. And I believe it is getting underway, or getting re-intensified, since we were already flirting with drought conditions previously. The pattern over the next week or more will lend more and more credibility to the drought forecast, as high pressure continues to dominate the Northeast and keep rain away. Temperature changes will be brought about mainly by positioning of surface features and direction of wind. For example, a true back door cold front will probably make  Friday the coolest day of this week. We also have to watch for some additional cloudiness at times, though most of the clouds from the system to the west will have eroded away due to the building ridge by Tuesday. A deck of low clouds may slide in off the ocean Tuesday night or early Wednesday but with little support and building high pressure, it would not linger. It remains to be seen if additional cloudiness would come in from the ocean on Friday. Anyway, it looks like this pattern will be going nowhere fast. Look for a continuation of high pollen counts and high fire danger.

Forecast for southeastern New England…

OVERNIGHT: Mid level clouds mainly inland, a few high clouds over southeastern MA and RI, mainly clear elsewhere. Lows in the 40s. Wind S under 10 MPH.

TUESDAY: Mostly sunny. Highs 60 coast to 70 inland, cooling into the 50s coast in the afternoon. Wind S shifting more to the SE around 10 MPH.

TUESDAY NIGHT: Clear start but a deck of low clouds may move in from the east overnight.  Lows in the 40s but around 50 urban areas and immediate coast. Wind E up to 10 MPH.

WEDNESDAY: Any low clouds burning off by late morning with a 100% sunny afternoon. Highs upper 50s coast to upper 60s inland by midday, cooling in the afternoon. Wind E 5-15 MPH.

THURSDAY: Sunny. Low 45. High 63 coast to 73 inland.

FRIDAY: Partly cloudy. Low 45. High 53 coast to 63 inland.

SATURDAY: Mostly sunny. Low 44. High 59 coast to 68 inland.

SUNDAY: Mostly sunny. Low 48. High 62 coast to 72 inland.

MONDAY: Mostly sunny. Low 49. High 64 coast to 76 inland.

65 thoughts on “Droughts Start This Way”

  1. Thanks TK. The rain is much needed. I haven’t looked it up but I guess we are more than a couple of inches behind in rainfall. Makes it tough for planting, fire danger and pollen counts (especially elm and maple). I have posted the pollen counts here a couple of times — I am not an allergy sufferer but the counts are high, hanging around a 10 on a 12 pt scale.

  3. Euro speeds up the timing of the southwestward-moving cold front to late Thursday, which sets up the possibility of a somewhat dramatic temperature drop if the front should make it here before sunset. I have lower 50s coast Friday but would not be surprised at some upper 40s, especially if a stratus deck is involved. Possible future tweaks to forecast. Euro has a possible shot of 80+ around the middle of next week, but again with no pronounced strong southerly wind may have to yield to the ocean’s influence even then.

  4. Thanks TK. We were debating whether to keep a new lawn care service. It had nothing to do with potential drought but with their service. The deciding factor however was putting a lot of money into a lawn that will struggle to survive does not make sense. As I said the other day, we can literally see the Sudbury river dropping.

  5. Thanks TK.

    Off to Cuba today!! Will report what I can which might be tough due to lack of Internet etc….

  6. Tk I’ve never seen brown lawns in May due to drought, lawns can start to go into some heat/drought stress in May, if it continues into June them yes the lawns will start to turn yellowish brown, but remember just bc the lawn is under drought stress doesn’t mean it’s dead, there r 2 thatch layers in a healthy lawn, enjoying another beautiful April Day 🙂

    1. And luckily I never have to worry about Mother Nature ever raining again, luckily it rains every morning at my house 🙂

    2. Actually you’re right.

      Unless you’re my neighbor. I have NO idea what he did to his lawn but it’s brownish yellow – still.

  7. Speaking of drought as I mentioned the other day here in CT a good chunk of the state is abnormally dry according to the latest drought monitor. It will be interesting when the latest drought monitor is released if all of CT and other parts of SNE come under abnormally dry conditions. I rememeber last year parts of SNE did reach moderate drought level status.
    May looks to start nice with comfortable temps and humidity which was far different from the 1st 3 days of May 2001 when we were dealing with a heat wave.
    I have not been commenting on the blog as much due to the boring weather pattern we are in. I hope everybody is well and I can’t wait to start tracking thunderstorms.

  8. TK, do you see drought conditions continue into at least the start of the summer season? That would be extremely serious if that were to happen.

    There is also the matter of that -7.04″ deficit as of 12/31/2012 as well. It may have disappeared technically from daily climo stats but I have a feeling it will come back to haunt us additionally. Do you agree TK?

  10. The thing with drought is it only affects a small percentage of people, I don’t know 1 person that says omg drink less water 🙂

    1. It can impact people with wells, it can impact outside irrigation, growing vegatables, prices for that food and other things too. I think it has a greater impact than you think, not just on the drinking water!

    2. Charlie I think it’s because we in the east don’t really know what a true drought is like. CA is one example.

      1. My husband says rather frequently that if we think we are upset about the cost of gas and oil, wait to see what happens when water becomes scarce. In America, we have this tendency to not worry about something until it actually affects us and then we have another tendency to be shocked that it’s happening 🙂

    3. Drought can be one of the most costly weather-related occurrences. We may not be the Midwest or Plains but we do have agriculture here. Granted, it’s not our main source of money so the impact would be less in New England than in the Ohio Valley, for example. It impacts a great many people, even down to their grow-your-own food gardens. When there are severe water restrictions during drought, watering your veggies is pretty much a no-go. And if Mother Nature ain’t doin’ it, you’re outta luck.

  11. I love this weather !!, though I agree its not good to have this much sunny, dry weather without a bit of rain.

    Its the timing of the sunny, dry weather. You can have 4 weeks worth of it in January, but with the winter sun, its not necessarily going to dry up quickly. This is MUCH more serious. To have this strength sun pounding away day after day is going to super dry the ground quickly and evaporate plenty of moisture into the air.

  13. Weather Channel has named winter storm Achilles that will affect parts of the Rockies and Midwest.

  14. May tomorrow !!

    At Logan … Averages

    May 1 : 62F / 45F

    May 31 : 72F / 55F

    Appears April is going to be around +0.8F tempwise, practically avg, for the month.

    Data from Taunton NWS Climate section.

    1. Tom interesting up there April was 0.8 above average for temperature yet here for interior CT we were 0.4 below normal according to technical weather discussion I just read.

      1. That is interesting, because usually, interior CT in spring should be a lot milder than Logan. Maybe all the high pressure allowing for cold overnights, while Logan doesnt cool off so drastically under high pressure ??

  15. Does the weather pattern seem strange to others ……

    I mean, I’m very used to seeing the same weather over and over again in springtime. But, an upper low sitting south of New England with days and days of clouds, drizzle, rain, NE winds and temps around 45F. While thats going on, the central US is usually having spring or early summer …..

    Instead, everything is displaced further eastward. Maybe its that simple ???

  16. Well, if tomorrow was November 1, we’d be putting in the winter predictions, so here comes my summer predictions ……

    15 (90F days) at Logan but no day gets above 98F. Most of the 90F days will be 90-92F.

    A very humid, tropical, high dewpoint, uncomfortable summer, especially July and August, once the summertime thunderstorms add some moisture into the ground, particularly inland.

    Big picture weather pattern …….. ridge along the west coast, trof in the central US (yes, a central US trof in summertime !!!) and a recurring east coast ridge with a Bermuda High type setup.

    East coast gets hit yet again with another landfalling tropical system.

      1. Someone remind me to pull our our winter predictions from last fall. I forgot about them. Wonder where they are. Hmmmmmm

  17. Well back on January 1st when we were making our bold predictions for 2013 I said for the summer 15-20 90 plus degree days and 2-3 big thunderstorm days. I still feel the same way.

  19. Good morning, this Weather that we’ve had for April is going into May now, Boston ocean is 52 degrees and pool temp has reached 60 degrees for 1st time this year, by the end of May pool water will be around 65 degrees

  20. Props TK on this drought “thing”. You were calling that since last fall I’m pretty sure. Not to mention, when it was snowing around here like mad, not that long ago, I’m also pretty sure you said it would disappear and be a distant memory once the dryness kicked in. Nice work.

    1. Mine ran at the beginning of March with the rain and snowmelt, but no other water in the basement. It hadn’t ran since March 2010.

  24. Ok – hope this works – it’s long

    JimmyJames says:
    Thanks TK and Happy New Year to you and everyone on the blog. I look forward to another great year blogging with all of you.
    Since its the 1st of the year its once again time for bold weather predictions for 2013.
    At least 1 double digit snowfall for Boston
    7 out of 12 months with above normal temps
    below normal precipitation for the year
    15-20 90 degree days
    1-2 tornado watches posted including 2-3 big thunderstorm days.
    What are your bold weather predictions for 2013??? I would love to hear them.
    Woods Hill Weather says:
    My only partially scientific 2013 predictions…
    Still maintain near to below normal snow for the winter overall but 1 or 2 significant snow events probably February and/or March. It will snow in March this year.
    2013 drought intensifies through mid summer and is broken by a series of tropical rain events August / early September.
    Less than normal amount of t-storms but one severe weather outbreak in June or early July that will include a few “low precipitation” super cell thunderstorms much like what you see in West Texas.
    Quick description of the 12 months (not an official forecast):
    JAN: dry, chilly start, mild middle, cold finish
    FEB: cold & snowy (but not too much above normal)
    MAR: milder, some snow but drying trend
    APR: cool & dry but a couple brief warm spells
    MAY: mild & dry but a couple brief hot spells
    JUN: hot & dry, drought worsens
    JUL: hot & dry, drought peaks
    AUG: warm with tropical rains breaking the drought
    SEP: wet & muggy start .. chilly & dry finish
    OCT: dry & cool transitioning to wet & cold
    NOV: cold & wet start with early snow then dry & cold
    DEC: brief thaws otherwise cold with frequent fast-moving snow events
    rainshine says:
    I remember doing this last yr. and I was so wrong! And I’m sure I will be very wrong again this year, but here goes:
    Winter : I still believe we will be getting at least 2 more big snowstorms this season – probably in late Feb./March. At least one of them will be of blizzard proportions. Temps. for the rest of the winter will be up and down, resulting in an average winter. temp. wise.
    Spring: spring will start out wet and cold, early part will be some snow. By May we will dry out and warm up – but no real heat yet.
    Summer: kind of agreeing w/TK a bit, here. First part of summer will heat up and be dry, up until mid-late Aug. when some strong systems will give us a lot of rain. I will go for 3 tornado watches and a few severe thunderstorm watches. Some storms will be really severe, possibly a tornado or 2, late June or July. And I have to add that I believe in Sept. or Oct. New England gets a big hurricane. We get brushed by at least one tropical system during the summer.
    Fall: a wetter scenerio ends the summer and temps. cool down leading to a cool and wet fall.
    Winter: can’t see that far – will take a guess to an unusually snowy winter.
    Tom says:
    2013 Weather Predictions
    10 out of 12 months above normal temps, 8 out of 12 months below normal precip.
    February 2 to 14 time frame : a close to 20 inch snowfall at Logan.
    April 17 to 25 time frame : first 90F day
    Mid June to early August : New England will once again sit at the eastern edge of a huge central US ridge. It will be in the mid 80s to low 90s consistently without a lot of high humidity. On occasion, a bit of the extreme heat will break off from the ridge and Logan will have 2 days of temps 98F to 102F, with a total of 12 to 15 90F plus days.
    August-September : as the anomolously mild Atlantic ocean temps continue with no big La Nina or El Nino in place, New England for the 3rd year in a row will be impacted by a tropical system.
    October-December : autumn will continue to a bit milder than normal and the first snow at Logan will fall between Dec. 9th thru the 16th.
    Tom added the following: To clarify……. the Feb 20 inch snowfall all from one storm.
    matt souza says:
    JAN: dry with near normal temperatures.
    FEB: snowy and cold
    MAR: near mormal to slightly below normal temperatures with some snow first half of the month.
    APR: dry and cool to start then wet and mild later half of the month
    MAY: dry and warm
    JUN: mild and dry
    JUL: Extreme heat most of the month seeing 90+ with little precipitation besides for a few cold fronts moving though which in general will be thunderstormed starved.
    AUG: warm with a tropical air mass
    SEP: near normal precipitation and near normal temperatures
    OCT: wet and cold
    NOV: cool and wet with are first snowfall sometime around or after thanksgiving
    DEC: cold and dry some light snow events from alberta clippers
    Philip says:
    Here are my 2013 predictions:
    1. Game time temps for the Pats playoff game on 1/13/13 will be at least 45-50+. I have no idea if rain will fall or just fair skies.
    2. Boston will get ONE and only ONE significant snowfall with no mix or change. All other storms will see change to rain or rain from beginning to end. Water temps will remain above 40 degrees. Suburbs will get more snow aplenty which will make Logan’s final total for the winter very deceiving compared to the rest of SNE.
    3. The SB will feature Pats vs. Redskins…Brady vs. RG III.
    4. Drought #s for Logan will reach double digits again, but for a much longer period of time. IIRC it was only for a couple of days or so just last month.
    North says:
    My weather prediction for 2013:
    January: Drier and seasonably cold with a moderate snowstorm during the last week of the month.
    February: article cold start with a very stormy mid-late month with a sizable snowfall in there (15 inches).
    March: stormy first few days with some snow, drier and mild after that.
    April and May: Dry and seasonable after a cool start to April.
    June and July: Dry and hot with moderate humidity courtesy of a west to Northwest flow around the central ridge.
    August and September: Dry and hot first half of August, increasing tropical rains in the second half into the beginning of September, drier and mild after that.
    October: Dry and seasonable temps.
    November: Dry and cool to start. Cold and stormy to finish with 2 storms featuring snow just away from the coast.
    December: very cold with frequent snow events!
    John says:
    My call for 2013.
    1. The warmth coming in is overdone and will return to cold air by the time the pats play in a very cold game.
    2. Next snowstorm MLK weekend.
    3. Still going with a cold and snowy winter finishing with above for snow. Two very big snow event to boost the numbers, than some clippers. South shore community right down to the cape major snow event with double digits.
    3. Cold march with one storm probably a mix event Boston/south.
    4. Nice spring with warm weather again in April.
    5. Hot/ dry summer.
    6. Storm again for labor day weekend for like the third year. This Time a hurricane that will rival Bob and Gloria.
    7. Very nice warm fall.
    Vicki says:
    January – Average temps and dry
    February – One larger storm (8+) and two smaller events (2-4) temps a little above average
    March – early storm (6-10) then above avg temps
    April – June below normal precip and above avg temps
    July – August – above avg temps, below avg precip and possible TS or Hurricane late August
    Sept – October – above avg temps, avg precip
    Nov – above to avg temps, perhaps one low-mod snow event
    Dec – above to avg temps and a few small snow events

    Old Salty say:
    A hot summer

    1. Ooops, I guess I changed my mind a bit btwn January and now on my predictions for this summer, cause the 2 are definitely different. 🙂

    2. im surprised how good i got jan,feb and march. april is a little off since we had little rainfall. but hay 3/4 😉

  25. We have a brush fire in Framingham about 1 mi as the crow flies from us. I was wondering why I was hearing helicopters.

    1. Is there any sort of red flag warning? I feel as if the communities are not very proactive in getting people not to burn – either yard stuff or in firepits.

          1. I think the reason there are no fire weather alerts is because the relative humidity is not that low where brush fires could spread and the wind is not really gusting.

  26. Some of us did well those predictions. We did in fact have a sizeable storm in February with the blizzard and it did snow in March this year.

  27. still 2 weeks of school and its turning great outside. i finish the 15 do to my ecology professor letting me do it durring his chem period. so im done on the wednesday instead of thursday 😀 rather have it rain now than when i get out of school. but with my luck. its gonna become wet lol

  28. Today’s weather is AWESOME! It’s PERFECT. I’m so happy it’s May 1st! Because it’s well, MAY!

    I’M READY for the summer! So excited 😀

    1. Hi Emily. May 1 brings back memories for me of dancing around the maypole and delivering may baskets. I’m glad its may 1 too!!

  29. Love those predictions. Mine are not THAT bad so far. 😉 January was milder than I thought though…

    Updating blog now.

  30. No drought here in Orlando, raining now after a cloudy day. Hot day yesterday with sprinkles at night. The first rain came in Monday night.

    2. Quite often when we are ridged up here, that area gets regular showers.

      The showers were a day earlier than I had expected when I made that forecast (I believe I thought May 2 would be the showery day).

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