Great Weather Returns

61 Comments

2:45PM

The headline applies to today, Memorial Day, and tomorrow, Tuesday (or the first day of the shortened work week for many). This is because behind our departing low pressure area we have a shot of dry and pleasant air coming across southern New England. Things are on the move however, and a ridge of high pressure will be building over the eastern US during the second half of this week. For us here in southern New England, it means the first heat of the season Thursday, Friday, and probably much of the weekend as well as May transitions to June. Getting there on Wednesday may be a little bit of a bumpy ride as a disturbance and warm front, then trailing trough, set off episodes of showers and thunderstorms.

Detailed forecast for southeastern New England…

REMAINDER OF MEMORIAL DAY AFTERNOON: Sun & a few clouds. Highs from the middle 60s to lower 70s then cooling back slightly. Wind W 10-20 MPH.

TONIGHT: Clear. Lows in the 40s, coldest interior valleys, but some lower 50s urban centers and coastal areas. Wind light variable.

TUESDAY: Sunshine filtered at times by variable high clouds. Highs around 70, 60s coast. Wind SE 5-15 MPH.

TUESDAY NIGHT: Clouding up. Showers/thunderstorms likely mainly midnight to dawn. Lows in the 50s. Wind SE 5-10 MPH shifting to S.

WEDNESDAY: Mostly cloudy to partly sunny. Chance of showers and possibly a thunderstorm early morning. Showers/thunderstorms returning late in the day. Highs in the 70s, some 60s south-facing shores. Wind S to SW 10-20 MPH.

THURSDAY: Mostly sunny. Low 61. High 88.

FRIDAY: Mostly sunny. Low 64. High 91.

SATURDAY: Partly cloudy. Low 66. High 90.

SUNDAY: Partly sunny. PM t-storms. Low 68. High 89.

MONDAY: Variably cloudy. Chance of showers. Low 58. High 77.

61 thoughts on “Great Weather Returns”

  1. Thanks Tk. High temps upped by you. hmmm

    I’m getting the feeling yours “may” be on the low side.
    We shall see. 😀

    1. I held them back a bit because of the recent rain and explosive growth of greenery. More moisture at the ground level (even with a rainfall deficit still). Takes more energy to heat things up. Let’s see how the topsoil responds to the sun from today/tomorrow.

      1. Completely understand that. Not sure in your area, but I
        don’t think we got all that much rain here.

        I just cut the lawn, and the soil was pretty dry already.
        I’d lean higher. 😀

        1. We had very little too. I had plants that had yet to be put in the ground and even they were on the dry side

    2. I guess it depends if one looks at the Euro or GFS.
      Euro suggests “around” 90. Gfs up to 93 or so. 😀 😀
      PLENTY of WIGGLE room in there. 😀

    1. I know it’s a weather blog but everytime I see BB I think of coach Bill Bellicheck 🙂

  4. The official hurricane season in the eastern Pacific begins 2 weeks earlier than the Atlantic. I believe there was already a named storm, Alvin, in the Pacific. It appears another one is forming. http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/

    The Atlantic is expected to have an above normal season in terms of activity while the Pacific is expected to be below normal.

  5. We don’t want to see the sun Wednesday which will further destablize the atmosphere.

  7. NWS a little bullish to me with their discussion for Wednesday. One of our meteorologists here in CT in his blog talked about the possiblity of an MCS in CT or somewhere in New England overnight Tuesday into Wednesday morning before another round of strong to possibly severe storms.
    If the ingredients come together Wednesday COULD be an interesting day. I am not biting on severe weather right now and am thinking non severe storms.

  8. Hi Vicki…. MCS stands for Mesoscale Convective System and basically its complex of thunderstorms. These can but not always have the ability to produce severe weather.

    Mesoscale Convective System. Mesoscale Convective System. A complex of thunderstorms which becomes organized on a scale larger than the individual thunderstorms, and normally persists for several hours or more. MCSs may be round or linear in shape, and include systems such as tropical cyclones, squall lines, and Mesoscale Convective Complexes (MCCs) (among others). MCS often is used to describe a cluster of thunderstorms that does not satisfy the size, shape, or duration criteria of an Mesoscale Convective Complex.

    1. Thank you JJ. I copied and pasted into my weather folder. Sounds a bit concerning but also ….I’m not sure what word to use….curious? I’m curious to see what the day brings. And a bit apprehensive

  9. I think there will be non severe thunderstorms across SNE Wednesday. I am not sold on severe weather at this moment. As I said in an earlier post for the afternoon root for the sun not to come out. If the sun comes out it is self destructing sunshine and will only further destablize the atmosphere

  10. Thanks TK!

    Charlie I find your comments about football downright rude, people can comment if they don’t know the xoxo. Some of us understand more and some not as much so be it.

    BTW tell me how many Super Bowls you would have won w/o his highness. I agree that defense is key but this game in this era is changing, if you disagree then maybe you don’t know what you are talking about. Bc today’s NFL is all about who you have throwing the ball. This is a QB driven league whereas 10-15 years ago it was defense. Ask any professional what is most important in today’s football and come back and tell me it’s a defensive player.

    1. one team needs a defense to have a chance and they lost it. its called the dreaded ravens

  11. O.S. … It may turn out that we end up with rather large ranges in temp if we have some areas that are dry and others that are not, soil-wise. Let’s see how it plays out. 🙂

    1. It’ll be an interesting case study TK. Maybe we can somehow keep track of temps as related to rainfall. My guess is everyone has a good idea of rainfall in his area for the past few days.

        1. We finally planted today and the soil was only damp on the top. I have to check in the morning but don’t think we got more than .75 even when mac mowed our hayfield …err lawn..it was dry before noon

          1. Lol. I mowed tonight after cleaning half our basement out this weekend and putting my daughter’s Xmas present together (trampoline). What three day weekend…..

  12. To OS: Agree with your comment on Krug vs Orr. I was just pointing out that the comparisons were already being made. Krug is no Orr, at least not yet, and is not likely to be an Orr. But that doesn’t stop the comparisons. Orr was a rare talent.

    2. I certainly wasn’t blaming the messenger. I pointed out that I didn’t know
      who was making the comparisons. I knew that it wasn’t Longshot.

      hey, Let’s HOPE that Krug does, indeed, become another Orr. That would
      be awesome.

  13. To Charlie: Because people don’t share your opinion, does not mean they don’t know what they are talking about. BB has been going to the ends of the earth to recruit WRs in case you missed it. The Pats are a receiver needy team that is why they brought on Boyce, Amendola, Jenkins, etc. When Moss left so did the “deep threat.”

    It is often said that defense wins championships but offense gets you to a championship. Today the NFL is a QB league for one reason, the evolution of the pass which means you need receivers. Brady needs a long ball receiver.

    The Pats have ranked badly in D for a while, saved only by their ability to be stingy inside the Red Zone. They also ranked 15th in sacks, another problem. Tackling has been awful (though tackling has gone downhill in the league in general). The Pats front 7 are sorting themselves out. In a pass happy league, you need pass rushers. Kyle Love and Brandon Deaderick are run stuffers not pass rushers. Armstead and Kelly will hopefully fill the gap.

    But in the end, the Pats will need receivers, receivers and then receivers. After all, their O is built around the arm of Tom Brady.

  14. Good morning…what a lovely day yesterday to end the holiday weekend and to honor our veterans. TK I hope they were able to hold the firework display.

    I was watching the fog in Sydney this morning….amazing. It looked beautiful but I am sure was quite disruptive.

  15. Yesterday was a great a day. For those who love the heat and humidity your going to be very happy late week into the weekend. Keeping an eye on a warm front tomorrow which will be the transition day. Could be two rounds of showers and storms. One round of showers and non severe storms overnight into tomorrow morning. The second round in the afternoon is the one to watch for especially if sun could break out. I think the areas near the CT River Valley west have a shot at a FEW isolated severe storms should the sun break out and the atmopshere destablizes.

  16. TK, should be interesting. I was amazed at how Dry the soil was while mowing the
    lawn. I have an area with no grass, and it was very dry.

    I sure hope we DON’T get any severe weather ushering in this warm air mass. 😀

  17. Old Salty the update from the storm prediction center for tomorrow comes out around 1:30pm this afternoon. It will be interesting if the area stays the same, increases in coverage, or decreases in coverage. Heavy rainfall, vivid lightning, and strong winds look to be the threats with any storm that goes reaches severe levels.

    1. JJ you bet. We shall see. Honestly, I don’t expect much change, but one
      never knows around here.

      One thing for sure, until the ocean warms up considerably, we are very much under marine influence when it comes to storms approaching from the West.
      That SW wind does have a component off of the Ocean to the South of us, limiting storm effects in Eastern areas. Later in the Summer when sufficient warming occurs, that influence is lessened quite a bit. “Probably” one reason
      why the SPC only has Western areas under a Slight Risk.

  18. I agree because as we know thunderstorms hate stable air. I do believe all the severe thunderstorm warnings we have had so far have been Worcester county points west including that tornado warning last Tuesday for parts of Berkshire county in MA and Litchfield County in CT.

    1. Yup.

      Warm front storms are a different animal. From reading the NWS discussion,
      doesn’t look like much of a threat from that.

      So it is the warm moist air on Wednesday, coupled with a short wave
      moving in cooling the 850MB temps that will produce the main threat, again
      mostly in Western sections. More sunshine => more of a threat.

      Unless something changes, not expecting any big deal in Eastern areas.

    2. But don’t forget the only confirmed tornado to touch down this year in MA was in Braintree, just south of Boston…

      1. i will be in it after i go for my long bike ride. going to the beach actually on thursday hopefully

  21. After today, there will be no seabreeze for east coastal areas (i.e. Logan) to hold off 90+ temps or severe thunderstorm activity…UGH!

  22. If we go strictly by Euro 0Z run (850 MB temps =18C), high temperature potentials for Fri-Sat are around 92F. This does not factor in cloud cover, moist soil, vegetation transpiration or any other factor. It is what I indicated, if all goes correctly, it is
    a “Potential”. 😀

  23. Hello my weather friends. Been a while since I have been on since work and home life have been VERY busy. Looking forward to the nice weather that is heading our way although I would prefer a little cooler than 90’s and NO humidity. 🙂 Hope everyone is doing well.

    1. Hi Sue. Glad to see you here. I’m with you on the temps and humidity. I bet the kids are keeping you busy this time of year with sports and just wanting to be out! Enjoy!

  27. Hey JJ,

    Given what we both have said, please take a look at the NWS technical discussion
    from Upton NY:

    NEW AIR MASS IN PLACE FOR WED BEHIND THE DEPARTING FRONT.
    NORTHEASTERN CT BEST CHANCE FOR RAIN WITH THE WARM FRONT IN THE MORNING…THEN THE CWA IS WARM SECTORED. ONSHORE COMPONENT KEEPS THE S COASTS COOLER. WARM FRONT WILL BE CLOSE…SO POTENTIAL FOR ANY TSTM INITIATION…PARTICULARLY NRN ZONES…TO GO SEVERE IN THE AFTERNOON. BRN IN THE 15-25 RANGE…WITH HIGH VALUES OF VGP /VORTICITY GENERATION PARAMETER/ INVOF THE CT RIVER VALLEY.

    So I looked up the VGP and here is what I found:

    Vorticity Generation Parameter (m/s**2)

    The VGP (Vorticity Generation Parameter) is meant to estimate the rate of tilting and stretching of horizontal vorticity by a thunderstorm updraft. Values greater than 0.2 m/s**2 suggest an increasing possibility of tornadic storms.

    What I don’t understand is that the Taunton discussion indicated that the wind direction was pretty much the same from surface to 500MB, strongly suggesting
    NO CHANCE of tornadic activity. What gives here?

    TK????

    Thanks

      1. So the above is for tomorrow around 7PM ish.

        This parameter at 1 is somewhat conducive for tornadoes.
        Where it is a 2 in Oklahoma, there is a Moderate risk for severe
        weather, including tornadoes.

        I still don’t get it. I must be missing something.

          1. OS – I’m not sure if there is a key to what the red and blue dotted lines mean …. or should I know that 🙁

  28. From the latest NWS discussion from Taunton just out:

    THE MAIN KEY INGREDIENT TO THE POSSIBILITY OF CONVECTION IS SIMPLY INSTABILITY. SHEAR IS NO QUESTION. 0-6 KM BULK SHEAR VALUES
    CONTINUE TO BE ROBUST…WHILE HELICITY VALUES REMAIN NOTEWORTHY TOWARDS SUPPORTING ROTATING UPDRAFTS. OF SOME CONCERN IS WHETHER SURFACE WINDS CAN ENCOMPASS AN EASTERLY COMPONENT RESULTING IN A GREATER TURNING OF THE WIND WITHIN THE HODOGRAPH PROFILE. ECHOING THE SPC DAY 2 OUTLOOK…WHILE DAMAGING WINDS IS THE LIKELY THREAT WITH THE SHEAR PROFILE…A POTENTIAL BRIEF SPIN-UP IS NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION. BUT AGAIN THE POSSIBILITY HINGES ON SURFACE-BASED INSTABILITY BUILDING AND DESTABILIZATION OF THE BOUNDARY LAYER PROFILE.

    Again, this severe threat is for the more inland areas and does not apply to East
    Costal areas. None-the-less, tomorrow looks to be a pretty active weather day.

  30. Hello everyone! Beautiful day today, yes? I’ve been kicking myself because I have been SO LAZY today! Had a very busy/long weekend! Slept in this morning, and still haven’t gone outside!! I hate to waste such a beautiful day! At least there will be more to come…

  31. An article from a WXedge about tomorrow thunderstorm.
    Low threat (Conditions are somewhat favorable for severe thunderstorms)
    Interior New England, New York, northwestern New Jersey and northern Pennsylvania:
    A warm front lifts through the area on Wednesday from southwest to northeast. As the front clears, a warm, moist and more unstable air-mass floods into the Northeast. Once lingering showers, patchy fog and drizzle clear, some daytime heating will begin to fuel the atmosphere. The severe thunderstorm threat relies on a few factors. Although daytime heating is important, it should be noted that bulk wind shear values are forecast to be low to moderate, with the strongest helicity displaced northeast into central and northern New England.
    A trough during the afternoon and early evening hours works as a trigger mechanism for thunderstorm development. The focus is on central and eastern New York, as well as western Massachusetts and southern Vermont. This area has a fair amount of overlap with respect to wind shear, instability, helicity and proximity to a shortwave passing near the Canadian-United States border.
    It is also in this region that both the ARW and NMM model forecast reflectivities indicate a relatively strong squall line dropping southeast between about 5 p.m. and 9 p.m. local time.
    The threat appears to be mainly strong winds, but isolated hail is another possibility. Although the tornado threat is low, should wind shear coincide enough with higher helicity values, there could be a spin up or two.
    This area is being monitored and may be upgraded to a moderate threat of severe thunderstorms, should model guidance trends continue.

    Marginal threat (Conditions are marginally favorable for severe thunderstorms)
    Elsewhere in green:
    A few scattered showers and thunderstorms are possible across the region, as far south as the middle Appalachians. Across the coastal plain of New England, decaying thunderstorms could hold together

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