Summergate

274 Comments

7:49PM

The gate to summer is about to be opened as a warm front crosses the region tonight and Wednesday, bringing a few episodes of showers and thunderstorms, and high pressure ridging overtakes the Northeast Thursday into the weekend with a westerly flow and hotter weather. Humidity will be up at first but may come down during the middle of the hot stretch due to a drying westerly wind. It should return again by Sunday as a cold front approaches from the north northwest, bringing a renewed risk of showers and thunderstorms. This front may be slow to clear the region early  next week with more unsettled weather Monday being replaced with drier and cooler weather by Tuesday.

Updated forecast for southeastern New England…

TONIGHT: Clouding over. Showers and possibly a thunderstorm develop west to east. Lows 53-58. Wind S 5-10 MPH.

WEDNESDAY: Mostly cloudy. Showers and possibly a thunderstorm early to mid morning followed by a break then a return of showers and thunderstorms by late day.  Highs 70-75 except 60s South Coast. Wind S 5-15 MPH.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT: Mostly cloudy with showers and thunderstorms ending west to east followed by breaking clouds but patchy fog. Lows 60-65. Wind SW 5-15 MPH.

THURSDAY: Mostly sunny. Highs around 90. Wind W 10-20 MPH.

FRIDAY: Mostly sunny. Low 67. High 91.

SATURDAY: Partly cloudy. Low 68. High 92.

SUNDAY: Partly sunny. PM thunderstorms. Low 70. High 88.

MONDAY: Mostly cloudy. Showers/thunderstorms. Low 66. High 74.

TUESDAY: Partly sunny. Isolated showers. Low 54. High 70.

274 thoughts on “Summergate”

  1. Thanks TK. I know I will be watching the skies where I am tomorrow especially if any sunshine happens.

  4. From reading that warning law enforcement apparently reported damage. Of course a team from the local NWS will have to go out tomorrow and investigate this.

    1. Maybe 17 min. My radar is a bit delayed. Can I assume anything like that would weaken well before reaching this area ?

  6. Trained weather spotters have reported a tornado. The fact that they extended the tornado warning east is not a good sign. If anyone up there is in that path they need to take shelter because not only do you have law enforcement reporting damage but you got trained weather spotters reporting a tornado.

  7. Well in the latest statement on that tornado warning up there its rotation has weakened which is good news so this warning should be allowed to expire.

  9. A severe thunderstorm warning is nothing to take lightly. With a severe thunderstorm you could have winds of at least 58mph and or hail one inch in diameter.

    1. Am I correct that if they are all around a tornado warning that’s been up for quite a while (now expired) that they could be more severe?

      Also and not related. Did you watch Saturdays jeopardy? We just did and I was excited to run the weather category :). Thanks to everyone here teaching me

  10. I did not see Saturday’s episode of Jeopardy. I love the sports weather and game show categories when they have them.
    You could have some intense thunderstorms around a tornado warning.

  11. I think any thunderstorm overnight into tomorrow morning will be non severe.
    Its tomorrow afternoon from about CT River Valley west that could have a few isolated severe storms especially if that sun comes out which will destabilize the atmosphere. The activity will weaken as it comes further east.

    1. Thanks JJ. I fell asleep so couldn’t thank you earlier. I thought that was the thinking earlier and wanted to be sure it hadnt changed. That puts you in the more severe risk area tomorrow pm??

        1. Yikes – you were awake in the early hours too. Be safe. It appears my daughter’s area (Uxbridge) is in a slight risk area but if I understand the discussion here correctly, I’d say that may be out of an abundance of caution.

  12. Thanks TK!

    Love the title “summergate” 🙂

    Wow I can’t believe how hot it’s going to be soon…

  13. A radar watching kind of day …….

    Is it really possible Logan could have (4) 90F days by June 3rd ?

    Mauna Loa observatory is the latest to join the 400 ppm of CO2 threshold and the Arctic ice melting season is off to a slow start ……..

  14. Tom I agree it is a radar watching kind of day. The storm prediction center has expanded the slight risk from yesterday to include a good chunk of SNE minus the eastern areas. This has bust potential if the sun does not come out and those clouds hold. If your not a fan of big thunderstorms don’t root for the sun today.
    Thunderstorm Index 2 for the interior with the best shot at some severe weather. A 1 for the eastern areas since I am thinking non severe storms for that area. Again all depended on the sun and this may need to be adjusted.

    1. Tough to tell on IR satellite, however, looks like the clouds thin a bit in southern NY State and PA …. Think we’ll get some sun late morning, onward.

    1. I want to add the Tornado overlay to the above map.

      http://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/outlook/day1probotlk_1200_torn.gif

      You will note that the 5% chance reaches very nearly to the coast and it is 2%
      for the rest of the area.

      My experience has shown that typically when the SPC has 5% chance of
      tornadoes, a watch is often posted (not always). Therefore, it would not surprise me one little bit that a tornado watch is issued for much of our area, probably not quite to the coast, but would most likely include all Western suburbs.

      Now this does NOT mean a watch will be posted, but CLEARLY it is something
      worthy of our attention and continued monitoring.

      Have a great day all.

      1. Old Salty two years ago this Saturday with the Springfield tornado there was 5% chance of tornadoes and the area
        was under a slight risk. Bridgeport, CT in June 2010 had a tornado with 2% chance of one.
        I am not trying to scare anyone and I am not saying there will be tornadoes in SNE today. To me this just shows
        how volitile this atmosphere could get if we get the sunshine. I would not even cancel outdoor plans later this
        evening but just keep an eye to the sky.
        Next update from SPC should be in shortly.

        1. Yup, I remember that and that is why I indicated
          that with the 5% chance, there might be a watch.
          We shall see. IF we get that sunshine, I’d lean towards a watch. No sunshine => no watch.

          Agree. Nothing much at all will happen, Unless there is ample sunshine.

          However, there is potential there so we should remain vigilant. Watch the satellite loops for any signs of clearing or at least decent breaks in the overcast.

          Again, I think coastal areas are safe, however, it is a different story inland.

  17. Wow – great maps, OS. And thanks for posting them.

    It’s dark and dreary here. 58 deg with a dp of 58. We got .38 rain in the night but it sounded like a lot more.

    1. Vicki,

      You and all are welcome. I love posting maps. That’s my thing.
      Hopefully, someone will let me know if I start overdoing it.

      Thanks 😀

      1. You never overdo, OS…..all are not only welcome but I believe everyone finds them helpful

  18. I am sorry that was the update from the SPC with the link Old Salty posted. They came out with it a bit early today. Usually it comes in around 8:45 AM. They will update this again early afternoon.

        1. Nice …. Sun in western parts probably by noontime ….. East of Worcester, who knows …..

  20. I would be very interested with the updates from the NWS out of Upton, NY and Taunton, MA have to say about that warm front and its progression or lack there of.

  21. Skies are trying to break a little in Sudbury. At this time of year, it’s kind of hard for the sun not to come out – unless you have a summer like we had in 2009 where most of the summer ’til August was cldy, cool and damp. I could be wrong, but I believe that the sun will come out in a lot of areas today – maybe briefly, but there will be some sun.

  22. Of course this isn’t our area, but this is an interesting discussion from the Alany NWS office:

    THERE ARE SEVERAL FACTORS WHICH POINT TO THE POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE
    THUNDERSTORMS. BECAUSE OF THE STRENGTH OF THE LLJ…0-6 KM BULK SHEAR
    WITH BE AROUND 30-40 KTS. 0-3 KM HELICITY VALUES ARE EXPECTED TO
    BE AROUND 200 M2/S2 AND 0-1 KM HELICITY VALUES ARE ALSO VERY
    IMPRESSIVE…WITH 100-200 M2/S2 BY EVENING. WHILE MID LEVEL LAPSE
    RATES AREN/T OVERLY STRONG…VALUES OF 6-6.5 DEGREES C/KM WILL BE
    SUFFICIENT FOR PRODUCING UPDRAFTS CAPABLE OF SEVERE WIND/HAIL.
    WHILE THE MAIN THREAT WILL BE DAMAGING WINDS…THE IMPRESSIVE
    HELICITY VALUES AND THE FACT THAT THIS SAME SYSTEM PRODUCED
    TORNADOES LAST EVENING JUST UPSTREAM ACROSS LOWER MICHIGAN WOULD
    POINT TO THE POTENTIAL FOR AN ISOLATED TORNADO OR TWO. THE
    NAM12/GFS/AND ECMWF ALL DID SHOW SIGNIFICANT TORNADO PARAMETERS IN
    EXCESS OF 1 AT SOME LOCATION IN OUR AREA…SO THE TORNADIC
    POTENTIAL SHOULD NOT BE IGNORED. SPC AGREES WITH THIS ASSESSMENT
    AND HAS OUR AREA IN A SLIGHT RISK…WITH A 5% PROBABILITY FOR A
    TORNADO WITHIN 25 MI OF ANY PARTICULAR LOCATION.

    1. From Upton NY:

      .WITH DECENT VEERING IN THE LOWER LEVELS. WHILE
      THERE IS HIGHER CONFIDENCE OF THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPING AFTER
      18Z…THERE IS LOWER CONFIDENCE ON THE EXTENT OF THE SEVERE
      POTENTIAL. THINKING THE BEST CHC WILL BE OVER THE HUDSON RIVER
      VALLEY INTO INLAND AREAS OF CT WHERE THE THETA-E AXIS IS EXPECTED
      TO SET UP BY THIS AFTN AND THE PREVIOUSLY MENTIONED INSTABILITY
      AND SHEAR VALUES ARE THEIR HIGHEST. MAIN CONCERNS WITH THE SEVERE
      THREAT WILL BE GUSTY TO DAMAGING WINDS AND HAIL. HELICITY VALUES
      OVER CENTRAL CT SUGGEST PSBL TORNADOES…BUT AT THIS TIME THINKING
      VERY LOW CONFIDENCE OF OCCURRING.

      1. From Tauonton NWS office:

        AM ALSO NOTING
        A BIT OF A TURN IN THE HODOGRAPH WITH LATEST MESOSCALE
        GUIDANCE. GIVEN THIS FACT…THE POTENTIAL FOR ROTATING UPDRAFTS
        AND HIGHER NORMALIZED CAPE SUPPORTS THE POSSIBILITY OF LARGE
        /QUARTER SIZED OR SLIGHTLY GREATER/ HAIL. THE POTENTIAL FOR
        ROTATION ALSO SUGGESTS AT LEAST AN ISOLATED THREAT FOR A BRIEF
        TORNADO…BUT THIS WILL BE MUCH DEPENDENT ON WHETHER CONVECTION IS
        TRULY SFC BASED. THE THREAT IS NON-ZERO HOWEVER.

  24. Thanks for posting those discussions Old Salty. What that is showing is there are ingredients in place for severe weather across the interior. The sun is the key here if this potential gets maxmized. I also think this could have bust potential.

    1. JJ you are so right. That satellite loop that Tom posted and the progged map
      I posted, indicate a decent possibility that we WILL break out into decent
      sunshine. We shall see.

      Again, No Sunshine => No Severe Weather.

    2. JJ, the atmosphere is ripe.

      Not to scare anyone, but this is the type of setup that produces tornadoes
      in tornado alley. One saving factor for us is, we don’t get a warm moist
      SouthEast wind to feed these things, like in the plains. However, there will
      be a strong low level jet and some veering of the wind with altitude, so if we
      get a super cell cooking, who knows, but CLEARLY NOT the same conditions
      as in tornado alley.

      As we say for Winter storms, we have a watcher.

      1. There were also tornados upstream in northern Michigan last night and that is the disturbance that will moving over us this afternoon and evening.

        Ended up with .53 of rain this morning. Not too shabby for a few hours of rain.

        1. Yes, very good point and it was mentioned in one or more
          of the NWS discussions. It just shows how volatile the atmosphere is.

          We shall see, but it “could” get interesting.

  25. My friend and fellow storm chaser sat and observed the Bennington KS stationary wedge tornado on Monday. Amazing photos. Will post one later.

  26. Where I am in CT the sun did try to pop it and the sky had that hazy look to it. Now the clouds are break. The thinking here is the sun will break out midday early afternoon and the temperature will shoot up to 80 degrees and storms impacting us between 6pm – 10pm.

  27. From NWS in Taunton.
    1030 AM UPDATE…MOST OF THE RAIN HAS MOVED OFF OF THE EAST COAST
    THIS MORNING. THERE IS ANOTHER LINE OF SHOWERS MOVING INTO THE
    NORTHWESTERN ZONES NOW. ON THE VISIBLE SATELLITE THERE IS QUITE A
    BIT OF CLEARING OVER CENTRAL AND WESTERN NEW YORK STATE. EXPECT
    WILL SEE CLEARING ACROSS THE WESTERN ZONES BY EARLY THIS
    AFTERNOON. IF/WHEN THIS OCCURS…WILL SEE PLENTY OF HEATING AND
    DESTABILIZATION FOR STORMS TO DEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON.

  28. Both Elmira and Rochester, NY have zoomed up to 77F at 11am under sunshine that is expanding its coverage in New York State. Most other NY State reporting sites have likewise jumped to 70F to 74F at 11am.

      1. Thanks Old Salty. I would imagine a mesoscale discussion will come out at some point this afternoon from the SPC
        on whether a watch is going to be issued or not.

    2. Well, I think there’s no question now that the heat/instability are in place across NY State, such that, by late afternoon, convective activity will be cooked up out there. I think the next 3 to 5 hrs determine how much of central and western New England get the sun that gets their surface temps into the low 70s or better. That should be the precursor to how far that activity could travel eastward in severe form.

  31. Latest mesoscale discussion from SPC. There looks to be a possiblity of a severe thunderstorm watch issued for western parts of SNE.
    MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0853
    NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
    1038 AM CDT WED MAY 29 2013

    AREAS AFFECTED…NRN PA…MUCH OF NY…SRN VT…WRN MA…WRN
    CT…NRN NJ

    CONCERNING…SEVERE POTENTIAL…WATCH POSSIBLE

    VALID 291538Z – 291745Z

    PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE…60 PERCENT

    SUMMARY…SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP OVER PARTS
    OF NY/PA BY EARLY AFTERNOON…SPREADING EASTWARD ACROSS THE
    DISCUSSION AREA. A FEW SEVERE STORMS ARE POSSIBLE WITH DAMAGING
    WINDS AND HAIL THE MAIN THREATS. A WW MAY BE REQUIRED.

    DISCUSSION…SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS A SHORTWAVE TROUGH EXTENDING
    FROM EASTERN ONTARIO INTO EASTERN LOWER MI. SCATTERED TCU/TSTMS
    HAVE BEGUN TO FORM AHEAD OF THIS FEATURE…N OF DET AND OVER CENTRAL
    LAKE ERIE. STRONG HEATING IS NOW OCCURRING OVER CENTRAL NY/PA WITH
    TEMPS WARMING INTO THE MID 70S AND DEWPOINTS HOLDING IN THE LOW-MID
    60S. MLCAPE VALUES OF 1500-2000 J/KG ARE LIKELY TO DEVELOP…ALONG
    WITH FAVORABLE EFFECTIVE SHEAR VALUES FOR ORGANIZED/SEVERE STORMS.
    FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOW RELATIVELY STEEP MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES AND
    STRONG WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT…PROMOTING A RISK OF LOCALLY DAMAGING
    WIND GUSTS AND LARGE HAIL IN THE STRONGER STORMS. MESOSCALE MODEL
    GUIDANCE INDICATES SOME THREAT OF SUPERCELLS AND AN ISOLATED
    TORNADO. GIVEN CURRENT MODEL/OBSERVATIONAL TRENDS…A WATCH MAY BE
    REQUIRED THIS AFTERNOON.

  32. Thanks JJ.

    We’ll see IF it gets issued and if so, if it moves Eastward at all.

    They indicated 60% chance of issuance.

  33. Rochester and Elmira, NY up to 80F at noon, Syracuse at 78F. Albany still at 63F, but I’d think they’ll zoom up at 1-2 pm.

  34. As in winter, much of the concern is for areas away from the coast. The chance for most of us seeing a Tornado into eastern mass is very slim, the ocean plays a huge factor in these types of situations. Further inland away from the marine influence it’s a different ball game.

  35. Historically over recent times, this has been a very active week for t-storms and tornadoes for New England. Late Spring in New England!

  38. Raining here again. Temp bumped up slightly to 63. I will be incredibly surprised if we see sun.

    2. Hi, Vicki – I hope you are right. I hope we don’t get any sun today so any storms we get won’t be so bad. However, I have a feeling that sometime around 4:00 or so we will get some sun, if not sooner. My feeling is that it’s tough to keep the sun from breaking through at this time of yr.

      Where is the warm front? I am guessing it is in CT now – has it stalled or is it moving northward?

  41. When I think of sun making a difference, I was thinking it would have to be out a good portion of the afternoon if not all. How long does it take for sun to destabilize and add energy? Can an hour or so of sun make all of the difference?

    2. Nice map Matt. Good Job.

      I think your potential tornado area is a bit too small.

      IF any were to develop it would be in a wider area than you have depicted.
      😀

  44. The storms are gonna form around Albany and move east, thunderstorms will develop in eastern ny over the next 1-2 hrs and move east, will see what happens 🙂

  46. The SUN is out here! Loads of Sunshine developing. Lots of Blue sky up there!
    Here we go.

  47. The sun has been out for about two and half hours now where I am. You could feel the humidity increasing.
    As you noted Old Salty no change made from the SPC. Now will see what happens. There was a mesoscale discussion but still no watch has been issued anywhere in the northeast as of now.

    1. JJ, the watch is coming for sure. Don’t know if there will be a tornado watch or just a Severe T-storm watch, but I suspect one or the other or both. 😀

          1. Please NOTE:

            Significant Tornado Parameter (fixed layer)

            A multiple ingredient, composite index that includes 0-6 km bulk wind difference (6BWD), 0-1 km storm-relative helicity (SRH1), surface parcel CAPE (sbCAPE), and surface parcel LCL height (sbLCL). This version of STP mimics the original formulation presented by Thompson et al. (2003) by using fixed-layer calculations of vertical shear, and substitutes the surface lifted parcels as an alternative to the ML parcels in the “effective layer” version of STP.

            A majority of significant tornadoes (F2 or greater damage) have been associated with STP values greater than 1, while most non-tornadic supercells have been associated with values less than 1 in a large sample of RAP analysis proximity soundings.

            1. This really goes with the previous one
              where just West of Boston the parameter is
              at 1 or greater.

          2. I wouldn’t be surprised somewhere in New England today a county or counties come under a tornado
            warning. From the mesoscale discussion earlier it sounded more like a severe thunderstorm watch would
            be issued for the discussed area. Will see what happens.

            1. JJ, my current thinking is that there
              WILL be a tornado watch box for Eastern NY, Southern VT, Western MA, Western CT and SW NH with 1 or 2 possible Severe T-storm boxes areas to the East and South.

              We shall see.

  49. Sun has been in and out down here in beautiful Plymouth. Definitely getting muggy out there.

  50. Sun in and out in Sudbury.

    .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/…
    * POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR INTERIOR SOUTHERN NEW
    ENGLAND LATE THIS AFTERNOON *

    230 PM UPDATE…RAIN SHOWERS HAVE COME TO AN END ACROSS ALL OF
    SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND…EXCEPT FOR NANTUCKET. WESTERN AREAS HAVE
    STARTED TO BREAK OUT OF THE CLOUDS INCLUDING AREAS WEST OF THE
    CONNECTICUT RIVER…MUCH OF CONNECTICUT AND PARTS OF RHODE ISLAND.
    TEMPERATURES HAVE CLIMBED INTO THE MID 70S IN THESE AREAS WITH
    DEWPOINTS INTO THE MID 60S WHICH LINES UP WELL WITH WHERE THE
    WARM FRONT IS AS WELL. TEMPERATURES OVER THE REST OF THE AREA ARE
    IN THE MID TO UPPER 60S WITH DEWPOINTS AROUND 60.

    AREAS WHERE THE SUN HAS BROKEN THROUGH THE CLOUDS OVER NEW YORK
    STATE HAVE REALIZED ALMOST 2000 J/KG OF CAPE. SO ANYWHERE THE SUN
    BREAKS OUT THERE WILL BE PLENTY OF INSTABILITY AVAILABLE FOR
    SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP. HOWEVER…WHERE CLOUDS HAVE
    YET TO DISSIPATE…THE CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE
    SMALL.

    I don’t know if that means EMA – since we have had a lot of cloudiness – we will see.

    1. I think it means everywhere just about to the coast. Excludes immediate coast and South Shore, Cape and Islands. IMHO for what it’s worth. 😀

  52. From NWS at Taunton:

    .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/…
    — Changed Discussion —
    * POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR INTERIOR SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND LATE THIS AFTERNOON *

  54. still thick cloud cover but humid here in billerica i believe we will start to see cracks in the clouds within the next hour or two.

    1. stil 64 degrees, dewpoint 64, thick cloud cover, just had some drizzle, no wind. I am not calling it off just now but starting to feel that northeast massachusetts will not see severe weather. We will see if we get some sunshine

  56. Still hard pressed to say the sun is out. It shows up and there is some blue sky but there are far more clouds than sun. Temp 69.1 with dp 63

  57. Now the SPC has just issued a severe thunderstorm watch for Litchield County in CT and Berkshire County In MA until 11pm.
    It will be interesting to see if another watch is issued further to the east.

    1. Didn’t look that closely, JJ. Sorry – just glanced.

      Looks like thunderstorms will be after dark – is it possible they may weaken as they approach here if it is late enough?

        1. It looks like the lifting mechanism is too far West and
          by the time it moves Eastward enough, we will have lost the sunshine, thus nothing severe in Eastern Sections.

          At least that is how it looks at the moment.
          😀

  58. Severe Thunderstorm watch out for a good portion of NY state.

    Sun is out a lot in Sudbury – I knew it would.

    I bet the Severe Thunderstorm watch extends east – just don’t know how far east.

    I also bet we get thunderstorms after dark – when we can’t see them. 🙁

    1. of course you can see them its just that its gonna be a light show hopefully
      night time best for lightning

      1. That’s true – but I like to watch the clouds, too. Unless it’s a bad storm coming, then I get away from the window!

  61. Just saw Matt Noyes. I think this is what he said – even ‘though it may be cooler around here, we are getting a warm front w/very warm air coming in and as it clashes w/the cooler air, we still could get severe storms. His future radar shows potential strong storms around Worcester area around 8 or so. Not a definitive, of course, just a possibility. So – it’s quite overcast here in Sudbury now – doesn’t matter if sun is out or not? We’ll see.

  62. Timing is not on our side. Storms don’t get cranking in MA soon enough. Once storms attempt to approach from the west this evening, the loss of daytime heating due to sunset will rob the storms of lift. This is why STW’s are out for NY and not MA. It’s a non-event and nothing more than a few downpours and rumbles of thunder for easter sections no matter how much sun we get this afternoon. Watch for a greater potential for strong/severe storms later Sunday afternoon/evening.

  64. I don’t usually watch Channel 7 – but sometimes I like to get different perspectives. I’m not a big fan of Pete Bouchard (sorry, Vicki) but he said the storms will likely weaken as they approach EMA.

    Hmmm, reminds me of winter and “we’ll wait and see”. Well, it’s kind of 50/50, as it’s likely w/the less sunshine the less severe storms we’d get. But – I can remember through the years of warm fronts coming through after dark that were pretty strong.

    Remember before doppler we called severe thunderstorms “electrical storms”?

    1. I have to agree with Pete on this one. Typically, as could be the case later Sunday, it’s the COLD front that could still produce nasty storms after dark. I don’t think that will be the case with this warm front as it approaches eastern sections tonight.

      1. IF this map is correct, then there will be NO extension
        of any watches to the East.

        http://weather.unisys.com/satellite/sat_sfc_map.gif

        However, if this WARM front can start moving, then there
        is still the possibility of thunderstorms later on, even well into the night. Warm front does NOT need any sunshine and sometimes, we can get nasty T-storms with warm fronts.

        ALL of Eastern sections now have an EAST wind, so The warm
        front NEVER made it through yet. So the map just may be correct. 😀 😀

  65. I don’t know who in the east has sun but we have had next to none here and the cloud cover is back to being very thick. It would make sense to me that alone would weaken anything that comes along and toss in nightime and if I go by what I’ve learned these storms need to grow, there isn’t much to offer.

    We have not reached 70.

    1. Vicki, TRUE for the convection moving from the West, however, IF the
      warm front kicks off activity, then it doesn’t matter. In fact the colder
      it is in Eastern sections, the more chance the Warm front WILL kick off
      activity. It remains to be seen as it could just was easily pass with no fan-fare. 😀

      1. Oh my I have a lot to learn. And here I was thinking we were in the clear since it’s been cloudy and cooler-ish here.

        Am I understanding that the front can provide its own energy? I did hear JR say this morning that a warm front tends to add rotation to a system??? Or was it someone here who said that? I’ve been listening and reading so much today 🙂

        1. I don’t know about rotation, but the warm front provides
          it’s own LIFT, thus causing air to rise and can lead to
          thunderstorms. I’ve seen some really nasty T-storms
          with Warm fronts. However, so farm I Just don’t see anything happening with the Warm front which leads me to believe that we will see little or no activity this evening. We shall see.
          😀

  66. According to Harvey, in spite of a straight east wind in Boston a strong thunderstorm can’t be totally ruled out due to an upper level disturbance…whatever that is.

    Also, just south of Boston temps are much warmer in the low-mid 70’s so maybe that factors in Harvey’s thoughts as well??

  67. Temp dropped a degree here. 8 deg lower than north Attleboro. Its 72 in with 71 dp Uxbridge for whatever that is worth

    1. Can’t believe it and your really only about 25 minutes or so away. You could take a ride down for some ice cream!

      1. Hehe. Just got ice cream from the ice cream truck. When you hear his music you know summer has arrived

  69. If baseball doesn’t change something it will continue to see the ratings and attendance down, some of this years ratings nationwide are terrible and in some areas r all time worst, the New York Times said if New York doesn’t have stars then people don’t watch, looks like storms are possible 🙂

  70. With the upcoming warm spell, how bout some guesses for Logan’s high temp Thursday-Sunday …….

    I’ll go 90F, 93F, 92F, 86F …….

    1. Its hard to tell, but that cell with the warning looks like it has a hook on the southwestern side of the storm ……..

      Severe thunderstorm watch extended further eastward to include Worcester.

  76. I know you are focusing on the radars but I thought a tornado in a line was not as likely as one in a cell all on its own??

    1. That’s what I thought, too. Although there are still tornado warnings in the Albany area, the whole line of storms looks like it wants to become a bow echo.

  77. Albany, NY issuing special obs …. Most recent one, 1/2 mile visibility in a thunderstorm, with a SW gust to 42 knots.

  80. Albany latest ob ….. NW wind, gusting to 46 knots. That whole thunderstorm looks like a mini low or vortex … Quite interesting.

  82. Boy, I think that line of storms is going to sustain for awhile ….

    From Pittsfield to Springfield, temps are in the mid-upper 70s and dewpoints are in the mid-upper 60s, so there’s plenty of fuel at the surface ….. and, there’s some kind of spin, vortex near the north end of the line, so, I’m guessing thats representative of the support aloft. Could be an interesting few hours watching this complex come eastward.

    1. I could not live with the threat of a tornado on a regular basis, especially at night when you can’t see. I don’t know how people do it but they are much stronger than I.

      1. I couldn’t either Vicki. I would hate to have several months of potential tornadoes day or night.

      2. Thats probably what they think of us with respect to northeasters, extreme cold and the occasional hurricane….. But, I agree, I think tornadoes are the scariest of the severe weather threats.

    2. That vortex at the north end is pretty neat. Not for the people that are underneath, but from a radar presentation it is cool.

  87. Is,the line weakening. The tstorm warning box has not been extended further than rt 91 and its been there a while

  89. What is the thinking on this line holding together; even a little by the time it gets to the coast, specifically the Boston area?

  90. One heck of a bow echo huh. It’ll hit me first. I’ll let you guys know what the scoop is if it holds together. The hills tend to break them up but we’ll see.

  91. Matt said the main threat right now is for straight line winds of 65-75 mph hour on the northern end of the line, just crossing rt. 91

      1. I’m thinking weakening by the time it gets here….and I base that in absolutely nothing at all except for wishful thinking. Actually my wish is it weakens right now. Just a run of the mill tstorm is fine with me

        Has anyone heard damage reports from the tornado in NY?

    2. But not always. The Holden-Worcester area is the scene of the 1953 EF4 tornado that killed 90+ people (ran from Philipston down through Rutland-Holden-Worcester-Shrewsbury-Westborough-Northborough). Also, the Sterling/Holden line saw a couple of small EF1 (maybe EF0) tornados in the summer of 1989, if I remember correctly (I grew up in Sterling and was going into high school that year).

      I don’t think it is the hills that causes the storms to seem to breakup right before heading into the Holden/Sterling area. This area is really where the hills begin heading down, from the higher elevations further west. I think it is because that area is often where the outer extent of the marine layer starts to interact with the storm fields as they head east.

      BB gave a talk in Clinton last fall, and he called the stretch of the state on either side of Worcester, MA’s own tornado alley. If you really want to get geeky, if you have access to a GIS program, you can download a layer from the MassGIS website that shows all of the known recorded tornado tracks in MA. Quite a few run west to east through Central MA…

      1. That vortex has quite a spin to it, luckily there is not a tornado still associated with it.

  96. Weakening to the point that Worcester reports a thunderstorm and the South Shore, Cape and Islands get a few light showers, I would say no.

    I feel like I’m watching a mini low come across with its warm and cold front, all in a very small area. That southern end of the line that will pass thru northern CT and RI, I think will stay strong to the coastline and that mini vortex, I think will be still seen on radar as it passes over or within a few miles of Boston in a couple of hours.

    1. I think a derecho has to be a long lived event, like say from an overnight MCS that develops in northern Michigan and stays strong throughout a long lived path with a lot of straight line wind damage along a path of hundreds of miles. However, I know what your saying and it has been fun watching this travel from central NY State.

      1. Had one a few years back, maybe a few more than that, right in my brother’s back yard. wiped out the woods behind him of 2′ diameter pines. Pretty wild.

        1. Sorry to hear about all those pines lost …. I do seem to remember a derecho type event locally, maybe about 4-5 years ago, sometime in late July-early August, coming in the late afternoon of a brutally hot day.

  98. Just saw Matt Noyes and he said although there are still severe thunderstorms the line is degrading somewhat, so that instead of one long line of wind damage, it’s more like pockets of strong winds. In any case, I’m wondering how much if at all this system will weaken by the time it gets to Boston.

  102. I’m watching the weather underground radar …… Seeing some showers pop up or trying to pop up just east of the bowed out line near Springfield. I’d guess the outflow boundaries may be rising the air ahead of the line and building up some cumulus clouds along with showers.

    I wish there was some daylight to see what the sky looks like as this thing approaches. 🙁

  103. That spin of the vortex is looking even better now then earlier…Looks like it is heading southeast near to your neck of the woods Vicki. They are probably some strong winds in there. Maybe a power outage :).

    1. Ugh. I thought it looked to be slipping just south of us…not that I want anyone to have damage ………wait, did you mention a power outage 🙂

      1. I knew that would make you smile :). I was just out with the dog and saw flashes in the northwest sky already here….Warnings have not been extended east yet.

    2. Harvey had a quick update at 9 and said that there had been 4,500 strikes in the last half hour with the whole line!

    1. The line is flying, while impressively maintaining strength. Probably will be upon you shortly.

  106. Looks like this could be a heavy rain w/lots of lightning and spotty wind damage storm by the time it hits the Boston area.

    I do recall warm fronts coming through sometimes stronger than cold fronts. I guess it’s what energy, troughs, etc. that are in the atmosphere. With all the heat we’re supposed to have, I wonder how strong the storms will be when the cold front goes by Sun. night and Mon.

    I prob’ly will be shutting down soon in case we get lots of lightning. Have a safe night all!

    2. Stay safe also rainshine. Ill shut down if need be also. Retrac, jwr….everyone stay safe

  109. the thunder is literally shaking the house. been a long time since I’ve felt it like that

    1. Yuck ! I dont care for lightning, even moreso at night. Then, throw in the rattling thunder and I’ll be cowering somewhere in my house. 🙂

  112. The comma is right under Rt. 3 heading east-southeast, maybe will even go right into Boston.

    1. Looks to be about to reach daughters house in Uxbridge..thunder and lightening intense even this far away. I can’t imagine what it is when you are right in its path

    1. Longshot how about that Blackhawks-Redwings game. I will have to watch the end once this storm is over. 1-1 in the third. Blackhawks were down 3 games to 1.

  120. Sure am glad I counted on Pete’s blog 🙂

    “Bottom line: we’re not cooking up trouble tonight. Passing storm after 8pm is possible, but it won’t be severe.”

  121. Is there a round 2 coming ? That was intense and I know nothing compared to other areas. I always sit in west facing bow window with my feet up on sill then move back 3 ft as storm is overhead. I moved back about 12-15 ft.

    1. Just heavy rain after the initial line moves through. That rain was intense! I think my rain gauge wondered what was happening! The thunder and lightening is actually more intense now after the initial line passed through!

      1. We had just about a half inch. But that’s a lot considering we have had very little combined in the past week

        1. We ended up so far with about 1/4 inch but I had .53 last night and 1.5 last Thursday and Friday, so we are over 2 inches for the 5 days.

      1. Still has the darned tarp on it. You probably don’t want to get me started when it comes to liberty mutual. Three roofing companies measured identical sq footage but liberty used a satellite image and says they are wrong. Meanwhile we have a lovely blue tarp

  122. Storm complex is behaving pretty much as expected. Following where it was unstable. Not surviving where it was stable.

    1. My guess is your wife is very happy. Me too. It was just the right amount of intense 🙂 🙂

      1. Still a lot of noise out there. I moved to the bedroom so am whispering so mac can sleep. I am far too energized to sleep and its just nice to listen to 🙂

  124. Hearing thunder in the distance. Hope it stays in the distance since I don’t want two little boys jumping into my bed.

  126. Glad everyone is safe. Well except I’m not sure if tom is under the table still 😉 I have always loved storms but sharing them with everyone here makes them more than special. Night all

    1. 🙂 my wife gives me grief when I take off, but I’ve always feared lightning since I was young.

  127. Back from the basement …. Wow, lightning then thunder with barely a second’s difference ….. great light show going on, especially to the south !! Not much rain left with the initial storms.

    1. Sounds like it was quite intense, Tom. We just had another clap or two of thunder/lightning, but nothing significant.

  129. With the heat, comes some of the warnings. I believe the Cape is under an “unhealthy air watch” today. The pollen count will go up too mainly from grass and ash.

  130. We ended up with three rounds of storms. Started at 10 and didn’t end until about 12:30.

  131. Wow north. If we got round 3 I slept throughout it. Tom I would suspect its healthier to be nervous about thunderstorms than not My mom was terrified. BTW tom did you see the warning to people in your town about a phone scam where the person claims to have kidnapped a loved one and demands money? Some sick people out there.

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