Who Left The Fridge Open?

162 Comments

8:54AM

Snow is Mother Nature’s natural refrigerant. And there is plenty of refrigerant around. It’s having an impact on temperatures, locally, and will continue to do so during the next few days. The result of this will be a warm up that is not as pronounced as it would be in a bare-ground situation. I hope that I have adjusted the forecast enough, based on this. The most immediate results of the snow pack will be temperatures that don’t go as high today as they would have, a warm front that is going to have a great struggle getting to or beyond the Merrimack and Nashoba Valleys tonight and early Friday, and only push northward just in time for a cold front coming from the west to pinch off any significant warmth, and that warm front resulting in snow/ice for parts of the region, instead of just plain rain, for a period of time tonight.

Today / Tonight… Small area of high pressure does bring sunshine today, that will start to fade during the afternoon as the warm front approaches. Watch for icy areas on the ground to persist through late morning, especially in shadowed areas where the sun doesn’t have the chance to heat the surface and melt the ice. By afternoon, it will have been above freezing long enough so that most icy areas should have melted. Tonight, clouds thicken up and overrunning precipitation arrives, especially from the Mass Pike region northward. The issue is that it will be cold enough again near the surface, especially over the interior, to promote icing if rain falls, and it will be cold enough aloft to support snow in areas near and north of Route 2, at least for a time, before it warms up aloft for sleet and freezing rain. So, some minor snow accumulation and icing issues may occur from east central and northeastern MA into southern NH tonight, especially in the 9PM-3AM window. To the south, spotty light rain and drizzle will develop tonight. Fog is possible in all locations, and may grow dense especially in northern MA and southern NH.

Friday / Friday night… Low pressure will track well north of the region, but its frontal systems will be playing with us. The cold air will be stubborn at the surface and the warm front will struggle to get by northern MA and into southern NH, and may never really make it there until sometime Friday afternoon. This will keep it cool, foggy, and drizzly, with even some freezing drizzle possible. To the south just patchy fog and drizzle as the milder air oozes into the region from the south across southeastern MA and RI. A cold front will sweep eastward across the region Friday afternoon and early evening, with a final push of mild air just ahead of it finally getting into the areas where it had trouble. But with this front comes an area of showers, some of which may be heavy. Thunderstorms cannot be completely ruled out as it will be unstable enough to trigger a few just ahead of the front. Later at night, the front will be offshore and clearing and drying will take place. Temperatures will not fall too much behind the front as this is not the leading edge of a very cold airmass, but it may cool enough to create some icy spots on the ground where rainwater and melted snow sit.

Saturday… Probably the nicest day, no storm system to deal with, no Arctic air (yet). A weak high pressure area will be our friend for the day.

Sunday… Transition day with some cloudiness and a risk of rain or snow showers as a trough and then an Arctic cold front pass through the region from west to east.

Next week… Our old buddy, the Polar Vortex, will take another southward journey into central and eastern Canada, turning our pattern cold to very cold for the last week of February. Though timing is still uncertain, we will not be without at least some threat of snow. So the higher confidence part of the extended forecast is the cold, and the lower confidence part will be the threat of any snow. Will be watching how things unfold…

Forecast for southeastern New England (southern NH, eastern MA, and RI)…

TODAY: Sunny morning. Increasing clouds afternoon. Highs 40-48. Wind W 5-15 MPH.

TONIGHT: Becoming cloudy. Developing areas of snow/sleet/freezing rain to the north, light rain/drizzle to the south. Some minor accumulation of ice with slippery areas especially east central and northeastern MA and a coating to 3 inches of snow and some sleet especially southern NH but also may work into north central and northeastern MA. Lows 30-38, mildest far to the south. Wind light variable to E.

FRIDAY: Overcast. Areas of fog and drizzle especially northern MA and southern NH. Showers and possibly a thunderstorms crossing the region west to east in the afternoon. Highs 43-51, being reached late-day and mildest to the south. Wind light E in northern MA and southern NH shifting to SE then S 5-15 MPH late. Wind SE to S 5-15 MPH increasing to 10-20 MPH to the south, with higher gusts in the afternoon.

SATURDAY: Partly cloudy. Low 32. High 46.

SUNDAY: Variably cloudy. Chance of rain and snow showers. Low 25. High 40.

MONDAY: Partly cloudy. Low 17. High 30.

TUESDAY: Partly cloudy. Low 10. High 25.

WEDNESDAY: Mostly cloudy. Chance of snow. Low 12. High 26.

162 thoughts on “Who Left The Fridge Open?”

  5. Btw, Here is the surface and 850mb temperature map for 10PM tonight:

    http://mag.ncep.noaa.gov/NCOMAGWEB/appcontroller/Image.php?image=data%2Fnam%2F12%2Fnam_namer_015_850_temp_mslp_precip.gif&model=nam&area=namer&storm=&cycle=12&param=850_temp_mslp_precip&fhr=015&group=Model+Guidance&imageSize=M&preselected_formatted_cycle_date=20140220+12+UTC&ps=model&scrollx=0&scrolly=0

    And 1AM

    http://mag.ncep.noaa.gov/NCOMAGWEB/appcontroller/Image.php?image=data%2Fnam%2F12%2Fnam_namer_018_850_temp_mslp_precip.gif&model=nam&area=namer&storm=&cycle=12&param=850_temp_mslp_precip&fhr=018&group=Model+Guidance&imageSize=M&ps=model&preselected_formatted_cycle_date=20140220+12+UTC&scrollx=0&scrolly=0

    If for some reason it is actually a little more South than forecast or the precip comes
    in a little earlier, there “may” be some SNOW even in Boston. 😀 😀 😀

    This will be CLOSE. And with the SNOW pack, perhaps the models are not
    quite getting the 850MB freezing line. ??????

    It will be interesting to see. The models sure as hell got it WRONG yesterday!!!!

    3. VERY PURDY!!!!!!!!

      How will it look on the 12Z Euro??????
      Will it be there? Will it be gone? Weaker? Stronger?
      OTS?

      We shall see.

      1. We shall. The details don’t matter much. It’s the overall pattern. It’s never a lock until it’s underway, or even done in some cases as we have seen this winter, but never wise to let guard down when you see the ingredients on the counter… next to the oven…

  8. To qualify, the Euro image I posted doesn’t mean I buy the model full out, but is a clear indication that the pattern sets up to support not only cold, but significant storm threats.

    Our friend Scott would love to hear that the MJO is expected to reach phase 8, which is about as good as it gets for supporting East Coast storms.

    I’d just say watch the period February 28 to March 4 for a significant storm somewhere along the East Coast, and we’ll narrow it down from there.

  9. Thanks tk 🙂
    Beauty of a day!!! 44 degrees, lots of melting
    Just got back from southern RI and its a go for March 3rd, there isn’t nearly as much, maybe 3-4 inches, this snow will be gone by tomorrow in the Newport/E.Greenwich/Jamestown areas which is perfect, like I said I got leeway, but its almost go time. We go through this every year, and if we were ever delayed it would be an anamonley.

    It’s always tough starting up, but , I saw 3 companies down here doing deep root feedings, yes I thought and I do them in Nov, but this company was doing a deep root feeding to a cherry ornamental tree. Even I think that’s early. Good day!!! 🙂

    2. Agree that Southern RI will not have any more snow on the ground, except snow banks, by tomorrow/Saturday. Cape and most of the south coast will also lose its snow cover very quickly. Sad, but inevitable. Also, in downtown Boston snow is doing a magical disappearing act. There is still plenty of snow left in the public garden, but here in Chinatown a different story. Melting like crazy. I underestimated today’s temp. Didn’t think we’d get this much sun. Should we get a day like this on Saturday w/ sun, we may be seeing lots of bare ground in the city. Note, I’m not talking about JP, Hyde Park, or those more suburban areas. Also, shaded areas will obviously be last to lose snow cover. But Charlie, it’ll all be moot when the really big snows arrive next week … Nothing is set in stone, but I have been thinking that we’re going to get a grand finale or two that will blanket the area.

  10. TK-I saw your post about wanting to agree with my suppression idea, but not wanting to go full in. I get where you are coming from. Part of the reason I buy further north solution next Wednesday for that fairly light event is the persistence of pattern and that fact is just wants to snow here this year. Along with I got a little better idea of what the climate will actually be in 6 days compared to 10 days. What I don’t like about the ECMWF OP for 3/1 is what you can’t see in those images and that’s its handling of pacific low pressure coming ashore in the same time-frame. Too far out for me to have good handle on what will happen. Hell, I might not know what will happen as it is happening, but that run looks fishy to me at that time frame….Pacific energy too far north, heights rising to the east of the oncoming low pressure, vanishing 998mb lows. So for now I remain unconvinced by 00z ECMWF and it 3/1-3/2 solutions.

  11. You are right that there will be a significant chance of a winter weather event in the Eastern US centered around 2/28-3-4. Not sure where that will be yet, but I am sure many will know exactly where the rain/snow line will set up for then, by late this afternoon…

  12. 12Z GFS has next wednesdays system delivering a few inches to the area. Ironically, temps along the coast will be too mild? What?

      1. Little bit of a Trough setting up? No?

        I won’t mention that name.

        http://mag.ncep.noaa.gov/NCOMAGWEB/appcontroller/Image.php?image=data%2Fgfs%2F12%2Fgfs_namer_153_10m_wnd_precip.gif&model=gfs&area=namer&storm=&cycle=12&param=10m_wnd_precip&fhr=153&group=Model+Guidance&imageSize=M&ps=model&preselected_formatted_cycle_date=20140220+12+UTC&scrollx=0&scrolly=0

        Yes, a few inches.

        http://mag.ncep.noaa.gov/NCOMAGWEB/appcontroller/Image.php?fhr=162&image=data%2Fgfs%2F12%2Fgfs_namer_162_precip_p60.gif&model=gfs&area=namer&param=precip_p60&group=Model+Guidance&preselected_formatted_cycle_date=20140220+12+UTC&imageSize=M&ps=model

        btw, I cannot get onto instant weather maps!!!1
        Anyone else have a problem?

    1. At hour 150, 2M 0C line considerably SOUTH of Boston.

      I cannot view your links. I cannot log onto Instant Weather maps.

        1. I see it. Interesting.

          InstantWeathermaps has that line about 25 miles Farther NORTH than the same map for the same hour from NCEP, which is the NAtional Weather Service NCEP central Operations.

          I think I’d go with the NCEP map. 😀

  15. Just tried to get on it with Explorer and couldnt, it froze on me. I usually use Google Chrome and havent had any issues.

    1. Tx. You know, historically, instant weather maps has the GFS short
      changing us on the snow map. The over compensate for coastal temperatures.

      I think that map SHOULD read 5-6 inches and NOT 3. That’s just my opinion.

      😀 😀

    2. Ya know – Kerry is a boob. His comments were antagonistic but that’s our ex-senator. I am learning to detest the term Global Warming and Climate Change is not far behind. We are so busy focusing on the label and arguing whether the climate is changing that we miss the underlying factor – pollution. We have polluted everything we have touched. Who cares if it is changing the climate – it has to be stopped. PCBs are present at both poles which should scare the pants of off everyone. We spend tens of thousands a second on curing diseases caused by pesticides. There is a new report out today about excessive birth defects in Washington state. And those are two very small examples. It’s the only earth we have and we do not get a do-over.

      1. You guys could really get me going here.

        Let me just say this. Whether or not the warming rate
        is what is being modeled or something much less, there is no
        denying the planet is warming.

        So why not do something about it now, rather than being
        ostriches and sticking our collective heads in the sand.

        I’m done.

    3. Global warming (or whatever name they change it to this week) is a means to tax and redistribute wealth. If the earth is warming, we have nothing to do with it. Not only that, but why does this scare people? It’s a cycle. Greenland was once green…it will be again at some point, and freeze again at some point. As humans our most prosperous times have been during warming cycles. Warmth (and water) = life. Cold does not. If it did, the artic would be as teeming with life as the equator.

      1. hehehehehehe – you opened up another can of worms with your 18th and 19th words. I will remain silent on that………which should shock just about everyone here.

      1. I have nailed nothing. That system will show up again. It was just the climatic set up the ECMWF was showing for the time period did not seem realistic. Future runs could portray a more plausible scenario that would bring that system in some form to SNE. My idea still leans towards a further north solution for Wednesday and what develops Saturday 3/1 or so would be suppressed, subject to change based on actual synoptic conditions and not modeled speculation.

        Temps got warmer than I thought they would today. I have to remember it is not January anymore and we are 8 days away from meteorological spring

  23. As i have said and my enviomental and Bio professors agree, its not really global warmings its global climate change, its a natural process but we are actually due for an ice age right now. is what my enviomental science teacher told me.

  24. Oh Canada !! Your killin’ me…

    2 goals in last 3 minutes of goal medal game and you send us cold air 4 months of the year. Thanks a lot !!

  25. 54.1 here – considerably melting – we lost a bit over 2 inches. Willing to bet it’ll be 3 before day is done.

    1. Note, sign of late winter/early spring: Interior warmer than coast. This will happen on Saturday, too. Charlie may get his wish near his house.

  26. The article, of course, was just FYI, or FYE, depending on your point of view.

    I always say regardless of our level of impact, it cannot hurt to take care of things. 🙂

    I have been so tied up in this US/Canada women’s gold medal hockey game that I fell behind looking for the 12z stuff. 😀

    I saw the Euro changed its tune on that system but it’s so far away it’ll change around a million times on a hundred model runs between now and then. 😉

    1. My thought on climate change is apolitical. We have a moral obligation to protect out natural resources and be responsible for what we pump into our waters, place in our landfills, and fill our skies with. It makes me sad to think that for 30 years we have had the technology to launch missiles from Kansas and have target certainty of within 13″ up to 8000 miles away yet can figure out how to make a 40mpg gas engine large SUV or Pick UP. Of course we could but that is not where the money and power is focused. That said we have 120 years of kept weather data that we are basing our “records” on. That seems like an awfully short time to base broad conclusions on what is happening to our billions of years old planet.

      2. That is about as close to my view as anybody other than I can get. I often point out the 120 vs a few billion years comparison. Not to sway anyone’s thought, but just for perspective.

      3. I literally sighed as I read ur comment. So sadly true. Especially the comment that it isn’t where the money or power is …….and yet we have ourselves to blame because we may not have the money but we do have the power…if we work together

  27. Wow, that is too bad for the US Girls hockey. Great game. Skill level was very good. They didn’t quite close it out

  28. Because of conservation, I have to pay $2,000 in permits and surveying to install my $1,200 shed in my back yard.

    2. There is a hole in my back yard the fills up with water from my driveway when it rains. They call it a wetland.

      2. It’s one thing to protect wetlands, but I think in this case
        someone has taken it just a wee bit too far. 😀 😀

      1. Thanks Ace. Got on at home no problem.
        I’ll have to check the firewall at work.
        No One should have made a change there, as I am the
        one responsible. Did I ban myself and didn’t know it???????
        😀 😀

    2. I thought there was the possibility yesterday around Atlanta but I heard it early yesterday morning. I did hear tornadoes south for today and thought it sure seems early

  32. This type of weather I’m not crazy about, I’d rather it snow than rain/drizzle and fog all day like its gonna do Friday, except this time of year, and especially having the winter we’ve had, I’ll take the drizzle and fog. Vicki to answer your question I lived here since 74, and have lived here every year except 00-05.
    Temp is 41.1 degrees 🙂
    Drip drip 🙂 🙂 🙂

  34. Tornado watches are fairly common by the end of February. The battle zone has set up shop between extreme cold on one side (which will begin to pay us a visit 72 hours from now) and warm air on the other.

    My thinking is that next week we may get overrunning situations in which cold and warm air collide and snow is the result. I can remember a major overrunning event in 1996 that produced 16 inches of snow. It was NOT predicted until only about 36 hours prior to the event.

    January was the 4th warmest on record worldwide. Europe, in particular, had an extremely warm January. Indeed, a non-existent winter for many. Note, that when you see images of Kiev, where a brutal Putin lackey is in charge, there is no snow on the ground and most people are dressed as if it’s October/early November, with wind-breakers and light jackets. That my friends is very unusual, and that has been the case all winter in almost all of Europe.

    The melting has exceeded my expectations thus far. We will see bare ground by Sunday. Not everywhere, and NOT in the burbs, but certainly in downtown Boston in places like the Public Garden and Boston Common which will be virtually snow-free. It saddens me to say that. I loved the snow-pack. The grand melt-away is not because of an epic warm-up. The warm-up is tame. But, 3 or 4 straight days of upper 40s with sun 3 of the 4 days, will do it.

    1. Interesting how the u touched snow has melted more than the big piles. I am sure there is a ratio there to use for TKs contest ……..somewhere

      1. Oh I know…not an Almanac fan myself…I find most older people are into it. I just like it when the feds get red faced 🙂

        1. That part is funny. 🙂

          I love the Almanac for most of what’s in it. The forecasts…fun to read at least. And sometimes they nail it. 😀

  46. Good morning, I don’t think we get to much rain today, maybe .20-.40 of rain, temp is above freezing at 36.2 degrees. Could reach 50 degrees today, but with showers, good day! Busy busy busy!! 🙂

  47. Was out last night in Braintree. Around 8:30 PM 1st batch of moisture came down
    as a burst of snow that went very quickly to sleet. Sleeted all the way home to JP
    and went to rain about 10PM. Still only 35 here. Cold air hanging tough.

    Right now not much of anything seems to want to get going. We’ll see what happens. 😀

        1. You know the models may be leaning more out, but the true odds probably lean more toward that solution…

          Persistence forecast.

  49. The forecast for last night worked out decently well. The accumulating snow was realized more on the northern edge of the envelope of “opportunity” which I’m sure most people won’t complain about. Here in Woburn we had a trace of snow but 0.2 inch of sleet (ground covered with ball-bearings) before it went to mainly rain. For climate-record purposes, that goes into the books under the snow column, so would count as 0.2 inch toward the seasonal snow total, as it is frozen precipitation.

  50. Crummy outside. The worst possible weather IMO. I felt colder after my run this morning than I did when it was in the single digits. Raw, wet cold just goes through your clothes and you can’t stay warm. I don’t use the word hate much, but I hate this.

    I do see a possible Sunday night surprise. Not much, but still. We need a nice white blanket to start the week. And I wouldn’t be surprised if something materialized on Wednesday. I’m really looking forward to next week.

    Snow in downtown Boston is taking a beating. There’s still plenty left, but it went down by a good 5 to 6 inches yesterday, and I see the same happening today and tomorrow. Too bad.

  51. When I woke up this morning there was a slushy inch of slop on the ground. I imagine we got an inch, inch and half of snow before it changed to rain. It doesn’t seem as though the snow has melted at all where I am, I’ll measure tomorrow to see where we stand, but looks to still be around 2 ft

  52. Also the Nam has shown something for Sunday Night a couple runs in a row here. Should be an interesting week weather wise.

  53. I’m kind of surprised at all the east, even east-northeast winds this morning.

    Have to go to Nantucket to get a SE wind and Atlantic City, NJ to find a S wind and 50F temps.

    I have no doubt that Boston and SE Mass will eventually get into the 40s and low 50s later on … But, I just thought SE Mass might already be in that airmass by now.

    1. I’m surprised as well – it’s looking like our big warmup today is going to be rather brief. Temps still holding tough in the mid 30’s this morning in northern CT and much of MA. In fact, it’s 39 as far SW as Philadelphia right now. Lows tonight will be back below freezing in many places.

      I see the NWS lowered the projected high for my area today from 51 to 46.

      Reached a maximum of 22″ base in my backyard as of Wed AM. As of last night, still had 18″. The snow is holding on better than I thought so far, but we’ll see what happens to it after tonight and tomorrow.

  55. Surprisingly, it hasnt been the rain thats reduced the snow, it was the warm sunshine for most of the day yesterday that did a number on my yard. Still feeling confident i wont have any bare spots at all come sunday. Still have a good foot in most places.

        1. Thanks Ace – I sure would have trouble thinking that will happen here in two days and it seems as if you have about the same snow cover we have

  56. By the way, 0z Euro completely lost that “bomb” for next weekend. Not even a fish storm anymore, it’s just completely gone.

    I think the Sunday night event should be minor most places with nothing more than a coating to an inch. To me, the Wednesday event holds the most promise next week. I do feel models will trend closer to the coast and we will end up with a moderate event across most of the region. We’ll see.

    1. Agree. I was hoping Sunday night “might” end up being a bit more, like
      3-6 inches or something. But I guess not. We’ll watch just the same.

      We’ll see about Wednesday. NWS at Upton NY, hinted that there may be
      a BIG IMPACT event mid week, so they have their eyes on something.

      The DGEX was pure EYE CANDY for Wednesday, but I can’t find it showing
      up big time on any other models to date. 😀

  58. We have just over 12 inches remaining here. And I found the same thing that Ace mentioned. Much more snow melted with yesterday’s warmth than did with the rain. Also, the large mounds are still not melting as fast as the ground cover.

  59. I’m watching the Richmond VA area radar closely for a dear friend of mine who lives just east of the city. She’s a bit scared about severe weather and her house is surrounded by very tall, old trees. I think the worst of it may redevelop east of them today, but she’s going to a local mall to do errands, which is better than being among the trees, while this stuff goes through that area.

    I’ve known her since she was about 5 and I was close friends with her older sister when they lived in my neighborhood when we were kids. She was like my little sister. Now she’s married with 5 kids, living down there. Hopefully they and everyone else can stay safe down in that area today.

      1. I believe so but she is safely at a strong part of the mall now. It looks like they are gonna get a big blow and heavy rain in the next few min but then it will calm down there.

        1. I never thought of a mall as a safe place to go. Will have to keep in mind. How would you know what the safest part is?

  60. Well, Wednesday is starting to look more interesting according to the 12z GFS! Stronger and closer to the coast indeed. 988mb low and looks to be just SE of the benchmark.

  61. Here’s that statement from Upton on the midweek system:

    A CLIPPER SYSTEM MAY TRACK ACROSS THE AREA ON TUE BRINGING SOME
    LIGHT SNOW TO THE REGION…WITH A POTENTIALLY HIGHER IMPACT SYSTEM
    DURING MID WEEK. WAY TOO EARLY FOR SPECIFICS ON THIS AS IT INVOLVES
    PHASING OF THE NORTHERN AND SOUTHERN STREAMS WHICH MODELS HAVE
    DIFFICULTY RESOLVING AND THE FACT THAT THE ENERGY ASSOCIATED WITH
    THIS POTENTIAL SYSTEM IS COMING FROM THE POLAR REGION AND OVER THE
    PACIFIC OCEAN.

    Looks like 12z GFS is trying to phase the N/S streams

  63. Yep, all snow everywhere and high ratios. Plus, I don’t think the trend stronger and closer to the coast is done by any means. Still 5 days out. Too bad there is no blocking whatsoever and the system is really booking.

    1. I agree about the trend to closer and stronger. This could be just the beginning. I have to disagree on high ratios and all snow. I have a feeling, depending on how close it gets, we will be dealing with p-type issues. With no cold high to the north, and a muted onslaught of the once frigid cold the models were once showing for midweek, no real supply of cold air for this system. Its early so all that could change, but i do think p-type issues for at least boston and southward.

Comments are closed.