The Week Ahead

164 Comments

12:25PM

Fantastic Mother’s Day in progress, and I’d like to wish all moms a Happy Mother’s Day! A nice dry and mild westerly wind makes this day great, the only real drawback being a high tree pollen count.

For the week coming up, many changes in store, from a Summer preview to a return to ocean chill to an increase in humidity then a turn to wetter weather. I believe it plays out like this:

Southwesterly flow as high pressure slips offshore Monday, bringing warmth and increasing humidity. While one cold front approaches from the west, a back-door cold front will be charging down from the north northeast and will enter the region at night as high pressure builds across eastern Canada. This will bring in a much cooler northeast wind by Tuesday, which may be as much as 30 degrees cooler than Monday in some areas. When we get to midweek (Wednesday-Thursday, the wind will start to turn more to the south, transporting warmer and more humid air back into the region. But as this takes place, the atmosphere is going to begin to develop a block, so that when a trough of low pressure arrives on the East Coast at the end of the week it will likely cut off and get stuck for a while, and we in southeastern New England will probably end up on the unsettled side of it. It remains to be seen how this will play out exactly and the forecast will be fine tuned as the week goes on.

THIS AFTERNOON: Sunny. Highs in the 70s, cooler some coastal areas. Wind W 5-15 MPH, few higher gusts.

TONIGHT: Partly cloudy. Lows in the 50s. Wind SW 5-15 MPH.

MONDAY: Partly cloudy. Highs upper 60s South Coast to lower 80s interior MA and southern NH. Wind SW 10-20 MPH.

MONDAY NIGHT: Mostly cloudy with a chance of showers and thunderstorms evening. Cloudy with patchy fog and drizzle overnight. Lows around 50. Wind SW 5-15 MPH early, shifting to NE 10-15 MPH from northeast to southwest across the region overnight.

TUESDAY: Cloudy. Patchy drizzle. Highs 50-55 except 55-60 interior MA. Wind NE 10-20 MPH.

WEDNESDAY: Partly sunny. Low 50. High 65, cooler coastal areas.

THURSDAY: Partly cloudy. Low 55. High 70, cooler South Coast.

FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY: Cloudy. Chance of rain. Lows in the 50s. Highs in the 60s.

164 thoughts on “The Week Ahead”

  2. Thanks tk . I posted yesterday happy Mother’s Day to all moms here incase you missed it. Beautiful day we have all the windows open and very nice just right breeze coming through.

  5. Could this be correct? Looks wacked to me!

    Taunton, MA
    (KTAN) 41.89N 71.02W

    Fair
    79.0 °F
    Last Updated: May 11 2014, 1:52 pm EDT
    Sun, 11 May 2014 13:52:00 -0400
    Weather: Fair
    Temperature: 79.0 °F (26.1 °C)`
    Dewpoint: 34.0 °F (1.1 °C)
    Relative Humidity: 20 %
    Wind: from the West at 16.1 gusting to 25.3 MPH (14 gusting to 22 KT)
    Visibility: 10.00 miles
    MSL Pressure: 1013.4 mb
    Altimeter: 29.93 in Hg

  6. Amazing how the ocean surface temperature responds to bright sunshine with
    a high angle.

    Buoy A0102 – Mass. Bay/Stellwagen
    (44029) 42.52N 70.57W
    Last Updated: May 11 2014, 12:04 pm EST
    Sun, 11 May 2014 12:04:00 -0500
    Temperature: 55.0 °F (12.8 °C)
    Wind: South at 9.0 MPH (7.78 KT)
    Wind Chill: 53 F (12 C)
    Visibility: 1.60 miles
    MSL Pressure: 1011.0 mb
    Water Temperature: 53.1 °F (11.7 °C)
    Wave Height: 0.5 m (1.64 ft)
    Dominant Period: 8 sec

  7. Thanks TK.
    The Weather Channel went through all there named storms for second straight year as Zephyr is impacting the Rockies. On the other side severe weather with possible tornadoes for parts of midwest.

  8. Thanks tk hit 80.3 degrees, down to 77.8 degrees now, 2 days in a row 80+, can we make it 3 days tommorrow? Maybe 🙂

    1. I think just about everyone except the South Coast and Cape/Islands goes 80+ tomorrow.

  10. Took a 4 mile walk and it was beautiful out. One of the nicest walking days since last October. I do not like backdoor cold fronts. 🙁

  12. Still at 79 here. What a nice weekend. And this is why I dislike winter. First weekend in shorts.

  13. What I love is the change that is going to take place between tomorrow & Tuesday. I love big shifts.

    On the back side of all of that we may have some tropical humidity sneak in here on Thursday.

  14. Well, here we go again (in my opinion).

    The warm season arrives and the temps overacheive.

    I think the general concensus today was for about 75F and lo and behold, 80F.

  16. Went to the lilac festival today which is a family tradition. Granted the lilacs are two weeks behind the past couple of years but the weather was a 12-10. Spectacular day!!

      1. They were my moms favorite. They were planted by the town in her memory at a park in Belmont and are still thriving.

  17. For the 3rd time, all here, they close down the highway for hours and then force people to do 3 point turns on the highway and go backwards driving the opposite direction and exit going the wrong way, what a mess, talk about frustrating, traffics backed up 15 miles solid, this happens to often, we should update our highways, 200,000 vehicles drive daily on this highway 95/495 on a 3 lane highway, crazy!! Should have been widened long ago. Rant over goodnight everyone

    1. Charlie. I’m hearing reports it was a driver on the wrong side. Either way, no matter how wide the road, accidents happen. I’m betting those injured or worse are far more inconvenienced than you

    2. It was a wrong-way driver. One person dead, 5 seriously injured.

      I’m sure they were going the wrong way because of our horrendous roads, right?

      1. I do think it’s bc many of our roads r thin and skinny with not a lot of room comparably speaking, I lived on a highways for many years that carried 300,000 vehicles per day, 8 lane highway going 1 direction never closed bc when there was an accident they needed to investigate they let traffic proceed through at least 1 or 2 lanes, here they just close the lanes and force cars to go reverse? It’s been in the local paper here on how often 95 gets closed and forces traffic upon the local town streets on daily occurrences. I completely disagree that if we had wider roads, and much better disperse traffic flow, it’s to a point that 1 accident causes back up onto town streets now. I’m not sure they would have had to close a 6 or 8 lane highway to investigate a crash, but a squishy 3-4 lane highway like we seem to have no matter what highway your on no chance, I’ve actually talked to a few state troopers and they have also told me from there mouth that bc of our skinny highways 1 accident on a highway can back up traffic in a town can really effect a small town. Just looking for progression, and not standstill 🙂

        1. I’m sorry Charlie but I do not think this is an appropriate conversation for here. My heart aches for those involved in last nights tragic accident.

      2. With our roads tk, you know as well as I do there not the best designed roads comparably speaking

    1. I was thinking with such a huge drop from today to tomorrow that we’d have some tstorms – at least somewhere.

  22. It is 72.2 here with a 39 DP and a light breeze – very nice. Birds are certainly celebrating with song.

    1. Beautiful, OS. Thank you. We will have to make the trip. We enjoy visiting Mt Auburn Cemetery this time of year but will definitely have to make the trip to the Arboretum.

      1. Hoping to get some of my wedding pics taken there on the way from the church in West Roxbury to the reception hall in Walpole 😀

  25. Could not have asked for a better weekend!! Enjoy today.

    Exactly 1 month from today begins the best sports contest the world knows, yes Charlie bigger than the Super Bowl 🙂

    1. Please don’t tell me you are talking about the World Cup Soccer matches?
      PLAEEEEEEEEEEEEEEZZZZZZZZZZZZZZZZZZEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEE.

      To the rest of the World, YES, to the United States? NO WAY!!

      I DETEST SOCCER!

        1. Hadi,

          I understand why you would love soccer.
          My Niece’s husband is from Australia and he won’t
          talk about any other sport but soccer (well perhaps golf).

          Huge in the rest of the world.

          Sorry, I was not brought up on soccer and have absolutely no use for it, however, I completely understand why others do.

          Which team do you follow? Your homeland’s or another?

        2. Hadi,

          I am sorry I was so negative. I can have an opinion, but
          I don’t have to lay it out there like that.

          It’s one of my many character defects. Please accept my
          apologies.

          1. You were not being rude 🙂

            I love the US and Argentina!! been a fan since 78 of Argentina.

    4. Having grown up out of this country and other than golf, Mac enjoys soccer as well. We will catch up……..change is hard and acceptance of anything not American is harder 😉

        1. It may happen eventually. Look at the children’s sports
          programs. I see way more kids playing soccer than
          anything else.

        2. It was the belief in the northeast that it was a waste of time to give young kids golf lessons too. There is no excuse for stupid IMHO 😉

  26. The Lilac’s were beautiful but they will get better this week so a visit in the next two weeks will be amazing.

    1. I plan on being there this weekend (weather pending of course). Some of my fiance’s family will be arriving from Italy this week for the wedding and we will be taking them there. It really is a beautiful sight.

      1. Hope you have some decent weather.

        Nasty weather takes the beauty right out that place. 😀

  27. Dew Points are still down around 40 Degrees.
    NOT going to get much in the way of convection with those dew points.

    We shall see how much they creep up by this afternoon.

  28. I have a question for the lawn savvy people out there. My lawn is coming in nicely (newly seeded last fall). However, it is a noticeably lighter shade of green than most lawns. Is that due to the newness of the lawn or is that a sign it isn’t healthy?

      1. I did a lime and fertilizer application about 4-5 weeks ago. It was a starter fertilizer since I seeded fairly late in the fall and felt it needed a bit higher phosphorus number to help the roots. I think the profile was 24-25-4

          1. The lime or the fertilizer? I applied the fertilizer according to the bags instructions. The lime i dont remember. I think it was 40lbs/1000 sqft

        2. Ours was considerably lighter also but it has darkened and blended but did so slowly. And we did no more than fertilize. We still have to lime and then refertilize. I can’t remember if we can put weed stuff on??? Did you?

  30. It sure is tough to work from home when it is so darn beautiful out. I might have to take a lunch break and walk along the waterfront.

  31. AT 10AM, wind has gone CALM at Logan.

    IF it doesn’t pick up from the West or SouthWest really soon, there
    WILL be a sea breeze, preventing another 80 Degree day at Boston (Logan).

    1. I agree ….

      I would like to add …… its 10am and the majority of temps are mid to a few upper 70s already !! I know the sun is out in full force and the air is dry, Mt. Washington is near 40F also ….

      but, I wonder if this is also a signal that things are drying out (lack of rain).

      We overacheived in high temps yesterday and while the immediate coastline is debatable (based on a possible seabreeze), lets see where inland temps get today and if they get past 83F or so that I saw most projecting last night.

      1. ooops, when I posted my first response above, I got a message saying the comment would not post, hence my 2nd comment, but then the first one posted. Oh well. 🙂

  32. 11AM Obs,

    Wind from 030 Degrees at Plymouth.

    Waiting for the other reports to come in.

    Blue hill is 250 Degrees at 7 mph.

    I’m guessing Logan comes in with an EAST wind!

    1. And there it is!!!

      Wind from 130 (SE) at Logan, temperature down to 73!

      121454 FEW055 SCT250 10 73 42 1308

      1. Did the back door slip down way early?
        OR
        Is the gradient just not there allowing the sea breeze to
        come in?

        I presume it is the latter.

        NO ONE mentioned a sea breeze along East facing coastal areas.

        Even TK had SW winds 10-20 mph. 😀

        1. 11AM OBS from Portland, ME.

          Temp 75 wind NW at 10.4 mph, yet Logan’s
          is SouthEast!! No Back Door yet for sure.

  33. At 11AM Taunton is 83 already, while at Norwood and Bedford it is 78.
    Norwood & Bedford sound reasonable and accurate. Taunton looks to be
    DogS**T!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

    Tk has been hinting that Taunton’s thermometer is messed up, especially on
    bright Sunny days. At this rate, Taunton will approach 90. 😀

  34. Dew point up to 51 at NYC and 62 at Pittsburgh.

    Looking at the surface map alone, it sure looks like convection would fire
    here.

    http://weather.unisys.com/satellite/sat_sfc_map.gif

    CAPES just NOT feeling it!!!

    http://www.instantweathermaps.com/GFS-php/showmap-conussfc.php?run=2014051212&time=INSTANT&var=CAPE&hour=012

    Lifted Index => Nothing cooking

    http://www.instantweathermaps.com/GFS-php/showmap-conussfc.php?run=2014051212&time=INSTANT&var=LFTX&hour=009

    So I guess not much will happen. 😀

  35. Wind still SE at Logan at NOON:

    121554 FEW060 SCT250 10 75 40 1307

    BUT the temperature managed to creep up to 75.
    Pretty impressive!!

    Mostly likely due to it being a rather light sea breeze only at 7MPH.
    That’s barely a breeze at all.

    1. YIKES!!

      I could see it on the hood of my car while driving.

      I’m oh so lucky that it doesn’t bother me.

      It used to long ago. I don’t know what happened, but very grateful
      that it no longer bothers me.

  37. Just because America’s isn’t big on soccer doesn’t mean a sports fan should dismiss it. We like to do that here, ie if it’s not American then it’s not important. One of the biggest flaws of this nation and why most of the rest of the world looks down on us.

    1. I absolutely love this country, its history and all it offers. But we can be a tad full of ourselves, can’t we? However, I think it is fair to say many countries believe they are the best and that is as it should be.

    2. Don’t agree.

      If I don’t like it, I can dismiss it if I so choose.

      That being said, others have all the rights in the world to like it and enjoy it.
      Still doesn’t mean I must. 😀

    3. Agreed Hadi. Soccer and cricket were the big sports my husband followed in Jamaica. He had never really watched football until he came here. Sure, he will sit and watch a Pats game now and again but would rather watch soccer. Certainly doesn’t make him a bad person and just another reason we have more than one TV in the house. 🙂

  38. Logan still HAS a sea breeze.

    121654 SCT090 SCT250 10 75 45 1507

    Back from the coast, there is a pretty decent WEST wind.

    This is NUTS!

    1. For example, take Norwood.

      121653 CLR 10 84 40 2712G18

      Up to 84 with a SW gusting to 18 mph.

      Yet LOGAN still hangs onto a seabreeze. What the bleep is going on over there????

      1. I dont know, but when it goes west later this afternoon, its probably going to shoot to around 87F.

            1. Logan is mightily F’D Up!(@#*()&!@()#&*()!)_!(@#()!@(#)(!@(!)(#(!@#()_!(@#)

              It just juts out too far into the Water!!!

              INSANE location to keep the City
              Weather records. Absolutely INSANE!!!

              Someone should be castrated for that one!!!

              The Boston Common or Public Garden
              would be the ideal location. But that
              just make too much sense, doesn’t it???

              1. I remember reading somewhere that Boston temps used to be recorded downtown near or at the common. I think it was before WW2.

            2. Yup, still very close to a sea breeze!!!

              Where is that gusty SW to WSW WIND?

              Norwood is 20 MPH!!!!
              Bedford is 19 mph
              Fitchburg is up to 85 with the Wind from
              260, gusting to 18 mph.

  40. Throwing this out there ….

    Based on the higher than expected temps the last 3 days ….. the next point of interest for me is to see how much rain falls with this slow moving east coast trof in the Thursday-Sunday timeframe.

    There has only been about 2 inches of rain the last 4 weeks at Logan.

    I think I see hints on both the EURO and GFS of warmth to our west and southwest rebuilding about 10 days from now. It will be interesting to see if that long term trend continues.

    I would throw out there, that if it does not rain a good deal, > 1 inch, in the next unsettled period, the chances for high heat (95F plus) under a +580dm 500 mb ridge later in May or early June increase.

    I dont think we have had a strong ridge overhead and we have just acheived three 80F days, with today getting into the 80s. I’m impressed.

      1. I have no memory of May but perhaps April? Early 2000s? Well that would not be Boston for reasons you mentioned appropriately elsewhere here. I agree that it is nuts to record temps on the water.

  42. 3PM Obs from Norwood:

    121853 FEW110 10 83 38 1910G23

    From Blue Hill:

    121854 82 37 1818G26 G 26

    From Bedford:

    121856 CLR 10 84 40 2711G18

    And from the S**T HOLE on the WATER (Logan)

    121854 FEW100 SCT160 SCT250 10 70 46 1312

    Seriously, down to 70 Degrees with a SE wind at 12

    This DEFIES LOGIC. Look at those other obs. Did the observer stick the thermometer into the Refrigerator??????????????

    C’Mon this is pure INSANITY!!!!

    2. I am right on congress st 30 seconds away from water and its not 70 I can assure you that. I am as close to the water without being in it.

    1. YUP! I was just going to post this. Tom was NOT far off. 😆

      121954 FEW060 SCT110 SCT250 10 84 39 2213G18

  45. The temps on the evening forecasts seem to be coming up for Thursday and Friday.

    Seems to be a strong S-SE flow from the tropics, I’m thinking 65F+ dewpoints those two days. The summer feel is not over yet for this week, though we’ll freeze tomorrow. 🙂

  49. Update coming in an hour or so. Been a busy day.

    80s today, 50s Tuesday, 60s Wednesday, 70s Thursday-Friday, maybe some decent rain Saturday, then we have to watch an upper low that may get stuck nearby. Love New England. 🙂

    Go Bruins!

    2. Only one team in the second that has scored first has lost in the second round of the playoffs this year.

        1. I said when this series began this could be a classic seven game series between two original six teams.

  53. Tk is that rain looking to affect New Hampshire as well compington area I believe this weekend Friday through Sunday. Thanks.

    1. Yes. Saturday looks the wettest right now. May sneak in a bit earlier Friday. But that part of the timing is uncertain.

    1. In a way it might be good. I always felt the series was going seven. They get it out of there system tonight and play like hell in there barn for game seven the best game in hockey.

  56. Here it comes ….

    Portsmouth, NH …. East wind at 20

    Portland, ME …. 52F, NE wind 12, gusting to 21.

  57. First sunday was the only day that i could enjoy this great weather . Went to my grandparents hung out with my family played football up in the field, walked the dogs etc.
    sadly that weather is not staying. also
    them bruins got creamed tonight ,seems like they are a totally different team on the road than at home. I barly see any hard hits , i did not see a typical smart physical bruins team like they usually are. the only hitting i saw was in fights at the last 2 minutes of the game

  58. Front crossed Woods Hill at 11:11PM. Wind was WSW about 10 MPH shifted to NE gusting around 20 MPH, big temp drop (about 10 degrees) in minutes.

  60. when you look at the gas, there’s no consistently nice weather for the entire model run. arghhhhh!

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