Ability Of Volatility

217 Comments

7:48PM

A whole lot will be happening in the weather during the next 7 days, and here is a look ahead at what the volatile pattern is able to do and how I think it will play out…

Tonight… We have seen a warm front push into but not completely though the region today. Though it was a fairly nice day despite some cloudiness, and many areas were in the 60s, there was an area of 50s in northeastern MA and southern NH where the front never crossed. Tonight, this boundary may remain nearly stationary, and it will be a little cooler here with a light east wind while the remainder of the region sees a light wind from the south. Where the wind is east and the air cooler, watch for low clouds and areas of fog. Elsewhere, lots of clouds will be the rule due to continued moistening of the atmosphere at all levels ahead of a cold front.

Wednesday… This cold front will be moving west to east through southeastern New England, with lots of cloudiness but mild air ahead of it. The cloudiness will actually keep the temperatures from reaching what would have been their maximum potential, well into the 70s. Instead middle 60s to lower 70s will be common. Ahead of and along the cold front, some scattered showers are expected. Though the activity is not expected to be widespread, there is the potential for a few isolated downpours and even thunder. Most areas will see light rain showers or nothing at all. At night, the front will finally push through and clearing, cooler conditions will move in from west to east.

Thursday… An area of high pressure will build across southeastern Canada and northern New England and supply our region with fair, seasonably cool, and dry weather.

Friday daytime… High pressure starts to retreat allowing sunshine to eventually give way to clouds advancing from the west as low pressure in the Great Lakes dives to the southeast toward the northern Middle Atlantic States.

Friday nighttime (Halloween)… Clouds thicken but it looks like any rainfall from the low pressure area to the west and south will hold off until after midnight. Evening activities (trick or treat, parties) will be met with lots of clouds and temperatures in the upper 40s in most locations, but not too much wind. The late-night crowd may be heading home in the rain.

Weekend… You’ve all been hearing the talk, the speculation, and maybe even seen the very-unnecessary posting of model snowfall forecast maps days in advance of what is only at this point a potential impact by a developing storm interacting with cold air moving into the region. That recipe is not automatic snowstorm at any time of year, even mid Winter. But given that it’s the end of October now and this event will be taking place during the first 2 days of November, there is even more doubt via climatology. We have a warm ocean, models that are forecasting without “knowing” how warm some of the lower levels of the atmosphere are, and just the uncertainty in how it will play out, detail-wise, which is only normal for this many days in advance. So as I did in the previous discussion, I will leave this far shy of anything that resembles a confident final outlook. Here’s what I do know: The low pressure system passing west and south of New England on Friday night is expected to trigger the development of a new storm off the northern Middle Atlantic Coast by Saturday which will then move northeastward an unknown number of miles south and east of Cape Cod and eventually east of northern New England by the end of the weekend, intensifying all the while. There will be impact, but to what degree is unknown. Potentials include precipitation ranging from rain to snow and an increase in wind. More certain is the fact it will be turning colder. There will be much more to say on this in time, but an early idea is that the evolution of the new storm will take place just too far east for direct major impact, and that we will have a period of rain at some point then a more intermittent rain to snow shower episode along with gusty wind. The Patriots will be playing a game in Foxboro MA that kicks off at 4:25PM on Sunday, and an early outlook for this game would be breaking clouds, moderate to strong north to northwest winds, and temperatures in the 30s, if the early scenario I foresee does come to be. Though this is technically an “afternoon game” it will largely be played as a night game, given that sunset is shortly after 4:30PM. Why? Because we switch the clocks back to Standard Time at 2AM on Sunday.

Early next week… Fair weather returns, though Monday will likely be chilly and breezy before we see a warm-up for Tuesday, Election Day.

SOUTHEASTERN NEW ENGLAND FORECAST…
TONIGHT: Lots of clouds. Some areas of fog possible northeastern MA and southeastern NH. Lows around 50 northeastern MA and southeastern NH, 50s elsewhere. Wind light E in northeastern MA and southeastern NH shifting to S late, S under 10 MPH elsewhere.
WEDNESDAY: Mostly cloudy. Scattered showers midday and afternoon. Slight risk of brief downpours with thunder. Highs in the 60s South Coast / Cape Cod, lower 70s elsewhere. Wind SW 10-20 MPH.
WEDNESDAY NIGHT: Lots of clouds and a lingering shower possible early, then clearing. Lows in the 40s. Wind shifting to NW 5-15 MPH.
THURSDAY: Mostly sunny. Highs in the 50s. Wind NW 5-15 MPH.
FRIDAY: Sunny start, increasing clouds, cloudy at night with a chance of rain developing overnight. Lows upper 30s to 40. Highs in the 50s daytime. Temps 45-50 trick-or-treat time, lower 40s late night.
SATURDAY: Cloudy. Periods of rain or rain showers, may mix with or turn to snow or snow showers night, especially well northwest of Boston. Temperatures steady in the 40s through the day falling into the 30s at night.
SUNDAY: Mostly cloudy with a chance of snow/rain showers. Lows in the 30s. Highs around 40. Windy.
MONDAY: Sun & clouds, more sun late. Breezy. Lows around 30. Highs around 50.
TUESDAY – ELECTION DAY: Partly cloudy. Lows in the 30s. Highs around 60.

217 thoughts on “Ability Of Volatility”

  2. Thanks TK! Wow, November is coming FAST. I’m excited for Halloween. I feel like having a “holiday” on the last day of the month is really neat because in a way it is a celebration of an end and a new beginning. 🙂

  5. I have an ap. I can posts with text but somehow not here. The thing I didn’t think would post did. Weird .

  7. Winter Outlook

    Since July 1, PNA Teleconnection has been positive perhaps 75 to 80 percent of the time. Thus, the big ridges, high western US heat and western US drought.

    Since July 1, Arctic Oscillation has been negative perhaps 75 to 80 percent of the time. Thus, a few of the bigger summer and autumnal trofs we have seen with cooler shots here and there.

    Since July 1, the NAO has averaged overall neutral, though I notice that a few positive and negative episodes lately have been reaching 1 standard deviation from normal.

    So ….. In my opinion, the ultimate guessing game is ….. Do they continue the same or change ?

    Of the 3, I’m guessing the NAO mostly stays the same. No big blocking this winter. I’m guessing the arctic oscillation isnt wont be negative as often this winter as its been, so more of the arctic airmasses will remain locked up in Canada. I also the strongly positive PNA will relax a bit, so things may get stormier in the Pacific Northwest and hopefully into California.

    Add it all up and …..

    Above normal temps on average by 1.5F, December – March

    Slightly less than average snowfall, 36.5 inches at Logan. I think a couple of those Pacific systems, when the PNA isnt positive will cross the country and somehow will evolve into 2 or 3 decent snowfalls.

    Had to deliver this now, as trimester 1, along with grades due ….. occur around mid November. 🙂

  9. I just saw on the news that rocket we were supposed to see last night was delayed and launched at 622pm tonight only to blow up shortly after launch. NASA not saying much but having a press conference soon.

  10. John try a colon Followed by a Capital D. I’ll put it in quotes: “:D”

    Then this is what you get. 😀

    OR

    Colon lol colon, in quotes: “:lol:” looks like this: 😆

  12. I know the talk will be about the weekend cold snap, but the models are showing with more confidence 60 or 60+ for much of next week, possibly going into next weekend. Ik it’s a ways off but just saying 🙂 goodnight

    1. I think we may reach 60 on a day or 2. Getting into November without a solid ridge pattern (anomalous pattern of a year like 2001 for example), the mild days will be more like 50s to near 60 most of the time. Tuesday should be such a day. However, it does look like overall seasonable through about day 8 when we balance mild this midweek with cold this weekend with milder early next week, then it looks milder than normal in the 8-14 day period.

      1. Meanwhile the winter of 2001-2002 was incredible for it’s mild pattern. There were only 3 days the entire winter (Dec-Mar) that high temp did not reach at least 32.

        1. The summer that followed that warm winter was also a hot one with 27 days where the temp reached 90 or above (April-Sept) including one stretch of 8 days in a row in August.

  16. South of the warm front, wow …. its mild !! Bit humid too, both temp and dewpoint are around 60F.

    It sure was a colorful sunrise this morning, when all the high cloudiness turned red, yellow and orange.

  17. UNIQUE sunrise here in Woburn. We are just on the other side of the front (cool side). Calm wind. Dense fog. Dense as in 1/4 mile vis or less. HOWEVER the fog depth is shallow, so the sun coming up to the east shining on high clouds overhead and west was lighting them up pink, casting a reddish glow down into the fog. It was eerie and awesome. 🙂

  18. Its 9 to 10 days out and not a big deal ….

    The 0z EURO shows, starting at 216 hrs, some kind of low just south of the Bahamas and drops the pressure on it ever so slightly at 240 hrs, while the low moves northwestward towards the SE US coastline. Aloft at 500mb, appears to be a ridge oriented such that, it wouldn’t slide out to sea.

    Well, lets see if anything of the sort is repeated the next few days on the EURO ……

  19. Good morning. Well today there was “F” in F o g. 😀

    re: Weekend storm

    Time to put a fork in it!

    It “may” not even be that wet as it now “appears” MOST action will be OFF SHORE.

    TK good call on this one, even If it was news I didn’t want to hear. 😀

    I’m surprised that Eric Fisher seems to be on board for this. Even at the 11PM broadcast last night he hinted at SNOW even for Boston.

    Oh well.

    1. Can’t say anything is a good call just yet. Still 4 or so days out. Can’t predict anything that far out with any certainty 😉

      1. Oh I think we can now based on the trends alone.

        Everyone here knows I’m a snow lover and I usually hold out
        hope to the bitter end. But as the Kenny Rogers song goes:

        “Know when to fold ’em
        Know when to walk away
        And know when to run”

        Time to FOLD and wait for the next Hand.

        1. I would say the GFS took a little step in the Euro’s direction, especially on last nights 00Z run in terms of a stronger slower coastal low. Sure it might be too far east to delivery any meaningful precip, but lets not forget the GFS bias of too fast and too far east

            1. It was OTS, but closer and stronger than all previous runs. Throwing out the crappy 6Z, we still need to see if the closer to the coast scenario continues to play out and start a trend

  20. I think we need to wait another day before we give up on this storm. The 6z GFS was disappointing, I thought after the 0z run moved west 6z would really nail us, but instead it went totally back the other way and then some. The ECMWF ensembles are still holding onto the idea of a higher impact storm though; we’ll see if they give up today or not. Looks like it’ll be tough to get much snow in southern/eastern areas either way though, just too warm.

  21. Ace, OK now I see where you are coming from…

    Last night’s tweet from Eric Fisher regarding GFS:

    Eric Fisher @ericfisher · 9h 9 hours ago
    Should be noted at 00z GFS run is a couple hundred miles farther west than 12z. I think that trend is closer to what will actually happen.

    Eric is really good. So you think he is onto something here??????

    I have GIVEN UP. I think Eric is chasing GHOSTS.

    I’d be very very very surprised IF there were a change to a closer to shore scenario
    and even MORE surprised IF it were to SNOW in Eastern NE. 😀

    1. yeah yeah, any time there’s a storm off the coast it has to be watched…..
      😆 😆

      That and about $5 gets you a cup of coffee at Dunkin Donuts. 😀

    1. John,

      I have been watching him closely and honestly I have not noticed that,
      until perhaps this time around. 😀

      Any one else? What are your thoughts?

      1. He usually gives a lot of information and technical analysis (but presented in a way most can understand). He’s excited and passionate in how he presents the info and i can see how people can confuse this with presenting his thoughts as a forecast and “jumping the gun.”

      2. I think his enthusiasm confidence is sometimes confused, but that is not his intent. Id rather him be informative and give too much info. IMO he is the perfect TV met, bright and personable and very skilled and knowledgeable at the same time. A very rate combo in TV mets

      4. I don’t think he jumps around too much.

        Perhaps he’s playing a hunch ??

        Also, looking past his excellence, he hasn’t been gaining all of his experience forecasting locally. Some of it has been in Atlanta, (I think he came from TWC). And so, I’d throw out there that perhaps when he looks at the same situation in 5 years and this scenario in some way shape and form is likely to repeat, that if 3 out of the next 4 similar scenarios end up being OTS, then I’d think he’s use that to maybe move more towards an OTS guess.

          1. We are very fortunate in the Boston area to have multiple great TV mets. Eric, Harvey, and Barry are all 1a, 1b, and 1c IMO. Equally as good.

  27. Good morning! I see the potential has gone poof, great news for snow haters, don’t worry the snow will show up in about a month in a half or so 🙂

  28. Looks like the warm front cleared Logan … light S wind.

    Its 65F + down here, but the dewpoint is 60F + !!!!!!!!!!

    The A/C is humming in my room and is needed, because I tried the windows earlier and it got stuffy real quick.

  29. NAM still showing some pretty impressive digging of that trough, 12Z so far looks like it will tilt negative along the east coast

  30. I was going to say that AceMaster that any time there is low pressure on the east coast it needs to be watched.
    I still feel that parts of the interior see there first snowflakes of the season over the weekend but I think a big storm has very low chance of happening. I am not going to say zero at this time since its still a few days out.
    I remember a storm back in December a few years ago that produced snow on a Saturday and the models were going with a fish storm on the 12z runs on Thursday then the 18z runs that day trended the low pressure system further west which began a trend and eventually we had some snowfall.

  31. OK, 12Z NAM is in.

    Hmmm

    It shows a 1st low ejecting NorthEastward mostly OTS.
    BUT it shows a hang back low closer to the 500MB center very near
    the NC coast. 500MB winds, 300 MB and 200 MB are very sharp, almost
    due South to North or only slightly to the East.

    This WOULD bring a major impact significant storm to our area.

    Here is the surface at 84 hours

    http://www.instantweathermaps.com/NAM-php/showmap-conusncep.php?run=2014102912&var=PCPPRSTMP_2m&hour=084

    surface with 850MB temps

    http://www.instantweathermaps.com/NAM-php/showmap-conusncep.php?run=2014102912&var=PCPPRSTMP_850mb&hour=084

    500MB

    http://www.instantweathermaps.com/NAM-php/showmap-conusncep.php?run=2014102912&var=PCPPRSTMP_2m&hour=084

    200mb

    http://www.instantweathermaps.com/NAM-php/showmap-conusncep.php?run=2014102912&var=PCPPRSTMP_2m&hour=084

    Now IF and I say a BIG IF this were to verify it would bring a MAJOR RAIN
    event to the coast for certain, with perhaps some accumulating snow inland.

    NOW let’s see IF any other models are on board.

    I am keeping an OPEN mind on this, even though I said I GAVE UP.

    WOW!!! This baby just won’t quit

            1. Not today. Go to pembroke mariner .com and schroll down to the bottom. If you can post it here. I can’t do that.

  33. Maybe yes maybe no. Ahhhhhh winter fun and I love all of the links and input. Makes it fun even if it doesn’t pan out

    As far as Eric or any other met, I know I’m repeating and repeating but it is important to remember that being accurate in most cases isn’t number one for station management. Pete alluded to it the other night when he said everyone wants to be first. For management being first is key and they know an inaccurate forecast won’t be blamed on them. It’ll be blamed on the met.

      1. That run, the 00Z Euro, and 00Z GFS are all pretty much in agreement in that position and strength at this point. Not sure about the CMC

          1. Pretty similar too. The euro shows the westernmost scenario but not by much. Any little jog west and we get a bigger impact. It might not be accumulating snow in Boston but a cold rain and some flakes mixed in at the end on sun morning still isn’t out of the relm of possibilities

              1. Its hard to translate where it will go but those upper winds sure look to bring that trailing low very close to the coast. We’ll see!

      2. Sure is close – It caught my attention when TK said not to write it off quite yet (I’m paraphrasing and don’t intend to put more emphasis on that than TK meant)

  35. From Eric Fisher this morning…

    No real changes to last night’s blog re: thoughts on weekend -> http://cbsloc.al/ZXExM7 (bottom 3 statements most important)

    Gone • an hour ago
    Give it up. Poof. Not enough cold upstairs and too far east. Euro is garbage on this one. Not sure why the ‘BZ guys lean on the euro so much. It was basically garbage last winter and it seems to be that way now. If they continue to show a Euro bias this winter, ‘BZ will miss more than they get right.
    • Reply•Share ›
    Avatar
    Eric Fisher Gone • 42 minutes ago
    Have a great day! Seems like you need a hug.

  42. I saw the news looking like heaviest rain towards coast. State of Maine gets some snow. Higher elevated areas maybe a touch of snow.

  46. Let’s see if the euro trends toward the GFS and CMC (i hope we don’t say that as much as we did last winter)

  47. 73F in Boston, with not full sun today.

    Too bad, I would have liked to see what full sun would have gotten us to.

      1. Nice ……

        Based on obs, the dewpoints are a degree or two either side of 60F.

        June weather in late October. 🙂 🙂 🙂

  49. Well, if anyone wants to move on from this weekend’s event ….

    The 12z EURO has given us something to start pondering 216 hrs out. 🙂 🙂 🙂 🙂 🙂 🙂 🙂 🙂

  50. I actually don’t like this weather…don’t like it this warm this late. At least the house can be aired out.

  51. Can’t believe you guys got 70s and sun today; it’s been low 50s and light rain most of the day up here in Plymouth, NH. Looks like the 12z Euro joined the out to sea camp for our storm… that’s probably all she wrote for that one then! I thought it’d come closer than that. Who knows, still 3-4 days out, maybe it swings back but I doubt it now.

  52. No surprises in today’s weather. SNE entrenched in the warm air, and even a little muggy feeling, especially for late October. Looking outside at some darker clouds to the W, almost looks like a 6PM August sky at 3:30PM on a late October afternoon. The only thing that gives it away is the trees.

    Continuing to monitor the unsettled weather and turn to colder weather over the weekend and so far it seems on track with the early thoughts in camp WHW. Left all possibilities open but the early call is mountain snow, offshore storm brunt, and the major population areas are left in the middle with periods of rain, then a chance of rain and snow showers at the end. However the precipitation may be gone before it is cold enough to support snow showers in much of southern New England. We’ll see. One thing that I am pretty sure of is that Manning is going to dislike the weather for Sunday’s game. But that doesn’t mean much. He’s a great QB on a great team. Unfortunately for him/them is the opponent is another great team with another great QB, playing on their home field.

    2. So TK, a serious question now.

      The other day you pulled the Wizard of Oz on us and said to pay no attention to the GFS, But unless something drastically changes, the GFS was spot on
      for this upcoming situation and the EURO TRASH was playing catch up.

      What gives????

      thanks

      1. What it shows is that the models continue to be inconsistent. The GFS had performed poorly then suddenly gets one a little better. The Euro which had been quite good then struggles several runs. Sounds familiar. We’ve been through this. And the party isn’t over.

        That is why I always continue the practice of being very general about situations until within 72 hours. Because as you see, even when I am pretty confident about which model is doing better (or going to do better), it can still pull a flip flop.

        1. Thank you for responding. Appreciate the honest response and please don’t mind any ribbing I may throw out there. Believe me I understand.

          You are providing us with an education, that’s for sure.

          Many thanks again for being there and for this blog.

  53. I see the dark sky just to our northwest, TK. It is awesome against the bit of color still remaining on the trees. I had to look at the radar to see if something was out there.

  54. Word of advice: Don’t fall into the trap of thinking we’re tracking Winter storms yet. It’s not the case. These are Autumn storms.

    1. There is actually a new line about to form right in our back yard. Watching some flat bases with updraft towers above them. Quite a threatening sky just to my west. Radar should show showers near 95 any moment.

  59. From Eric Fisher a few minutes ago:

    Eric Fisher @ericfisher · 11m 11 minutes ago
    About 14/51 of the 12z ECMWF EPS members are still quite interesting for New England this wknd…so we can’t sleep on this one just yet.

  61. Hmmm 18Z NAM looks mighty interesting. Yes, I am well aware that it is the 18Z
    run, however, WOW!

    at 84 hours, surface

    http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/nam/2014102918/nam_mslp_pcpn_frzn_neus_27.png

    850mb

    http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/nam/2014102918/nam_T850_neus_29.png

    500 mb

    http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/nam/2014102918/nam_z500_vort_neus_29.png

    250 mb

    http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/nam/2014102918/nam_uv250_neus_29.png

    IF and I say a mighty BIG IF, that verifies, HOW does it not IMPACT us in a big way.
    Not saying it has to snow, but it would be a major impact.

    Just something to think about.

    Wish there were model consistency.

    1. It probably won’t verify anyway, but even if it did, the movement of that portion of low pressure would be more east initially, turning northward too late.

  64. What an almost scary evening sky.

    At 4:15pm, heading west, we could see summerlike, tall cumulus clouds.

    I was inside from 4:30 to 5:15 and when we came out, the NW sky was dark !!

    No thunder/lightning that I saw, but the wind is steady out of the north, so I dont know if this was a downdraft or the cold front racing ahead of this. It was a classic summer sky. Quite interesting !!

    1. There was an outflow boundary from the line that formed just offshore east of Boston. That line is with the front. The bigger area of rain is post frontal overrunning.

  66. From Taunotn NWS office:

    * GLANCING BLOW FAVORED SAT/EARLY SUN BUT HIGHER IMPACT POSSIBLE
    * BIGGEST CONCERN IS STRONG WINDS LATE SAT/SUN ESP CAPE COD
    * ACCUMULATING SNOW IS STILL POSSIBLE BUT A RATHER LOW PROBABILITY
    * MUCH MILDER WEATHER RETURNS BY NEXT TUE AND WED

  71. Please check out Eric’s blog post.
    Unbelievably awesome. Love it!!!
    Really nice read for anyone interested.

    1. It was a great football game. I am disappointed the Cowboys lost but I didn’t think they would be 6-2 at this point of the season. Bigger issue is Romo’s back and if he could play Sunday against Arizona.
      Good win by your Redskins Hadi.

  74. Love Eric. Love the way he writes. Sometimes I think he is TK. And he answers the posters. BZ did GREAT

  76. GFS and Euro. out to sea
    vs
    JMA and NAM closer to coast.
    Euro
    http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/ecmwf/2014102912/ecmwf_mslp_uv850_us.html
    Gfs
    http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/gfs/2014102918/gfs_mslp_uv850_us.html
    JMA
    http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/jma/2014102912/jma_mslp_uv850_us.html
    Nam
    http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/nam/2014102918/nam_mslp_uv850_us.html
    Honestly hoping the Gfs is right because i really do not want to march on saturday in the rain plus i perform at 8pm plus i also perform sunday

  81. From Grey. ME NWS office

    THE FLY IN THE OINTMENT IS A LEAD S/WV THAT IS FORECAST TO TRIGGER CYCLOGENESIS OFF THE COAST PRIOR TO THE MAIN UPPER TROF ARRIVING OVER EAST COAST. THE RESULT IS A PUSH EWD OF THE BAROCLINIC ZONE…WHICH KEEPS THE SECOND SFC LOW FARTHER OUT TO SEA FOR THE SECOND HALF OF THE WEEKEND. GIVEN THE CLOSED NATURE OF THE UPPER LEVELS THIS SFC LOW WILL TRY AND TUCK BACK TOWARDS THE COAST WITH TIME.

  83. 74F at Logan today ……. 17 degrees above average.

    Beginning October 14th to thru today, Logan’s avg daily temp has been above average 12 of the last 16 days.

    Without today’s large anomoly, the month to date temp avg is +2.1F.

    2. Sept and Oct anomolies …

      2014 …. Sept : +1.3F Oct : current +2.1F

      2013 …. Sept : -0.2F. Oct : +2.7F

      2012 …. Sept : -0.2F (yes, exact same as 2012, checked it 3 times. :). )
      Oct : +2.5F

      2011 …. Sept : +2.4F. Oct : +3.5F

      2010 … Sept : +4.0F. Oct : +1.5F

      Boy, thats a lot of mild late summer and early autumns lately.

      All data courtesy of Taunton NWS Climate section.

      1. I know it’s felt much more comfortable at this point compared to last yr, last yrs winter came rushing in in Nov and lasted till March, I’m hoping for lots of 50’s and 60’s for highs this Nov. 🙂 goodnight

  84. Someone asked a question on Eric’s blog as to how much snowfall for the upcoming winter, and his response was that WBZ will have a special coming in late November, but he is currently leaning to ABOVE AVERAGE snowfall…totally opposite of TK’s thinking for the past few months now.

    2. “leaning to” is not necessarily “forecasting” … just as I am “leaning to” below average, that is not my final call. We’re a few weeks away from that.

      That said, I talked to some colleagues this past Saturday and there seems to be a general feeling that the Pacific flow is going to be involved in locking cold air in Canada in the months ahead. This will be fairly easy to have happen if the split flow regime that I think may happen does indeed take hold.

  85. Good Morning.

    Latest runs pretty much pound the final nail in this storm’s coffin.

    We may get precip (rain) from the first impulse while it’s still too warm for any chance at snow, but the main stronger one gets going too far off shore to impact us much, if at all. Minor differences in models. CMC flys it Waaaay OTS. 😀

    One caveat: ensemble means for Euro, GFS and CMC all place low closer to the coast.
    Don’t know if there any extremes that are skewing those means or not.

    1. Boston Weather Updates
      12 mins ·
      Weekend Storm is trending east: steadiest rain will be along coast and Cape- Strong winds to be biggest impact ‪#‎wcvb‬

Comments are closed.