No-Go Low

148 Comments

5:32PM

Low pressure that barreled into New England from the south on Tuesday with an icy start then rain, flooding, and wind has decided to park itself in the area and spin around for a few more days. It will not get out of here until the second part of the coming weekend, finally pulling away to the east. Being under its influence through Saturday, we’ll see plenty of cloudiness along some rain and snow showers. Do not look for any widespread heavy precipitation.

By early next week, high pressure will move overhead with a couple nice days, not too cold by December standards. Toward the middle of next week, a new trough will move in with a return to unsettled weather.

SOUTHEASTERN NEW ENGLAND FORECAST…
TONIGHT: Mostly cloudy. Scattered rain showers coast, southeastern MA, and RI, with rain or snow showers elsewhere. Brief coatings of snow possible mainly along and northwest of I-495. Lows in the 30s. Wind variable to SW up to 10 MPH.
THURSDAY: Mostly cloudy. Scattered rain showers except rain or snow showers inland with brief coatings possible. Highs around 40. Wind variable to W up to 10 MPH.
THURSDAY NIGHT: Mostly cloudy. Scattered rain or snow showers Cape Cod and South Coast, snow showers elsewhere, with accumulation of under 1/2 inch possible. Lows around 30. Wind variable to NW 5-15 MPH.
FRIDAY: Mostly cloudy. Scattered snow showers. Highs in the 30s. Wind NW 10-20 MPH.
SATURDAY: Mostly cloudy. Scattered rain/snow showers. Low 30. High 40.
SUNDAY: Mostly sunny. Low 25. High 45.
MONDAY: Mostly sunny. Low 30. High 50.
TUESDAY: Partly sunny. Low 30. High 45.
WEDNESDAY: Cloudy. Chance of rain or snow. Low 35. High 40.

148 thoughts on “No-Go Low”

  3. Harvey saying signs of colder and storminess but would not get into it. Where’s the warmth for the month tk?

    2. Boston’s temp is sitting right on normal and when today’s #’s are factored in it will be just over. By the time we get to the start of next week it will be 1 or 2 degrees above normal for the month. The positive departure (overall) is good for at least 8 to 10 more days. Everything is on track.

      I predicted a milder than normal December. Don’t expect a warm one (like 2001 pattern for example). It’s not that anomalous, just retreated Arctic air overall. We’re between continental and maritime air masses in this pattern other than that Arctic intrusion the other day.

  4. Thanks for the Update TK.

    Hmm rain or snow for 7 days from now. Interesting.
    50-50? Nah 25 snow 75 rain, yeah that’s more like it OR worse. 😀

    1. I’ll bet you coffee in town we get plowable snow from between now till midnight Xmas night . I just feel it.

      1. Perhaps, but let’s see if it is next Wednesday, the 17th. 😀

        The GFS says no way Jose, however, we know how good that is a week out. 😀

        And so far the Euro is off shore.

        CMC has a Lakes cutter and an Off shore system.

        Could it all come together? Absolutely. There is something
        going on with the atmosphere. It will be interesting to see what
        shakes out.

        GFS parallel certainloy has something, but it is pretty far South.

        Let’s watch and see how the models handle it all.

        That’s certainly a chance and then 1 or 2 after that.

      1. How about a nice Friday storm starting at 3:30 pm lasting till Saturday early am. That would be another early Xmas gift as I got the first gift Monday night thank you .

  5. One of the FB non-met weather sites should be jumping all over the 18z GFS Christmas Eve snowstorm for southeastern New England. 😛

    1. Just not that night or Xmas. However wouldent that be somthing for some places around here that had the white turkey day to have a white Xmas now that would be somthing you never know.

  6. Hi All,

    Just getting in from a long day.

    Been snowing lightly here where I am in NJ all day. Nothing heavy but it is starting to stick. Maybe 1/4″.

    Very warm BL out there. Looked like one of those days in March when it snows all day and NOTHING sticks.

  7. Our surface wind is back to SSW again. It was for a while yesterday, switched back to northerly and then came back around again this afternoon. All of Cape Cod is back to SSW surface winds ….

    Is this the same original low pinwheeling around ?

    I trust this is a definite occlusion …….

    Interesting couple days of surface winds.

        2. Excellent surface maps !!

          Look at the push of relatively mild air into central and eastern Canada. Quite a SSW flow over all of Hudson Bay.

  9. Not sure how the fantasy of a white Christmas began but behind the romantic ideal its really one of the worst things that could happen on that day. Even if you aren’t traveling or hosting who wants to shovel snow or work removing it on that day?

  10. 17th too weak to be anything of note.

    21st too warm most of SNE

    23rd delayed maybe to more like the 26th, but this is a good thing for snow. Ridge will be building out west, Gulf moisture streaming north and a potential low ejecting off the mid Atlantic coast with cold air settling in over the NE US.

    All of this is just applying some meteorology to some ensemble trends. Not really buying any specific dates or potential strong storms.

    Ok got to get back to my accumulation map for the 17th and a rain snow map for the 21st…

  11. Barry said on air a possible snowstorm for the week after next just before Christmas.

    So it seems that Barry is on board for 12/21 and/or 23 as well…a good 10+ days away though.

  12. Pete B tweet

    @pbouchardon7: @bilottajr No arctic air…but as @jreineron7 likes to say, “you only need to get to 32 for snow”. Storms ARE still likely through Xmas.

    2. There seems to be some misconception about us needing Arctic air for snow. All you need is Polar air and the right set-up.

  13. There is nothing ultra-specific being implied or to be inferred from the dates above. They are only strictly guideline dates for event that could transpire in the pattern the way it is and is expected to be.

    We’ve all seen plenty of instances where some or all models show “nothing” but you know that there is something that could transpire because typical model error is keeping an event from showing up. That’s the tricky part.

    My initial feeling about the 3rd of those (as much as I can have one this far in advance) is that it would not be a southern stream system. The middle one has the greatest chance of being that, and the ticklish part with that one will indeed be amount of cold air available, BASED ON projected thinking with lots in the way between now and then.

      1. They have no need to go there unless they plan on educating the public on what they actually mean. And since the general public as a whole has been conditioned to only hear the words “snow”, “storm”, and “major”, then the message will no doubt be taken the wrong way. So it’s better they just leave it alone for now.

        The 00z ECMWF is picking up more strongly on the pattern change now, and the storm threats. The key, from a meteorological standpoint, is going to be how much cold air is available for any of these to be snow events for the greater portion of southeastern New England. Early outlook, marginal.

        Watching all of this evolve and will deal with each event potential as it comes, as always is my method.

  14. Poor Buffalo, NY 🙂

    Moderate snow. This isnt even lake effect snow this time and all of the Buffalo area is getting it.

  19. Had breaks on the eastern horizon this morning and saw the sun !!! Its still yellow !!!!

    Also seeing light mixed rain and snow.

  20. This, by the way, is the classic behavior of a decaying storm. What was once a powerful cyclone is now a dying low. The snow band over eastern MA was NYC’s snow area last night. These are the remains. Other such remains may cross the region today with only brief coatings of snow possible where it comes down hard enough. Nobody will need a shovel today.

  21. Needless to say, this Low that’s decided to be in neutral is limiting the amount of sun we’re getting. I’ve counted 2 sunny days this month, and 1 in-between day. With more rain threats (I’m not holding out any hope for snow with less-than-marginal temps) on tap, we’re headed for a very dreary December. Also, we’ve already exceeded the monthly average in precipitation by well over an inch. Overall, a sad month weather-wise, in what should be a festive one.

    Charlie, I know you prefer rain to snow, and relatively mild temps, but you must admit this is plain awful weather.

    1. I was just going to post something along those lines Joshua. It’s been difficult so far getting into the holiday spirit with the dreary weather. And yes, i would think even for the folks who don’t want snow, they can’t be happy with the weather so far in Dec.

  22. Was snowing in JP when I woke up. By the time I showered and got ready for work, NADA.

    Wade Bleeping Miley? You have to be kidding me!!!!!!

  24. With Wade Miley as our #1 starter, Henry et al. are pulling out all the stops … NOT … We’re now the team that gets the leftovers from Thanksgiving dinner, hoping that there’s a wishbone to give us luck. I have no clue what the Red Sox management’s philosophy is. 1. They obviously blew it with Lester. Not so much because they didn’t offer the moon and the stars to him last week. No, I think they could have gotten this done with less money in March of this year. Instead, the low-balled him and he bailed. 2. They’ve vastly overrated their young `talent,’ some of whom are just not major-league ready or even major-league quality. 3. The risky high-priced signings of Sandoval and Ramirez don’t make sense to me. I’ll add a fourth: De La Rosa has some real talent. I’m surprised that they let go of the one young prospect they used last year who pitched really well at times. He has great velocity and movement on his pitches – usable as a starter, but perhaps even better as a closer.

    1. IMO, De La Rosa right now is a better pitcher than Miley, AND has proven he can pitch in the AL east. I would not touch a middle of the rotation guy in the NL. Translation: will be an end of the rotation pitcher in the AL. This deal makes NO sense. Wasn’t De La Rosa one of the guys the sox got for letting Theo Epstein go to Chicago? If so, then Theo gets the last laugh.

    2. I mostly agree, however, Wade Miley is potentially a better pitcher
      than I first thought.

      Wade Miley’s Era last year: 4.34
      However, in previous years it was as low as 3.33, so he’s NOT terrible
      that’s for sure.

      And we cannot overlook the fact that he played on the WORST team in
      the Major leagues and still managed to win 16 games one year. Sure last year he was 8-12. He is 28 and a Big guy, hopefully durable.

      He will most definitely help.

      I surely hope they still plan to acquire a #1 pitcher, presumably Hamels, but
      who knows what their plan is.

        1. I didn’t say I liked him. It’s Keith-Hingham that likes him.

          I just said that’s probably the Sox option. 😀

        2. Actually he’s not…he pitches in one of the toughest parks in the NL to pitch in.

          Ok I really have to stop responding…I like everyone here too much and I’m getting pissed LOL….I think I’ll come back later when a new blog is out LOL.

    1. I like this deal more than the Miley deal, but we seem to be stockpiling #3, 4, and 5 starters when we already had a decent cast of these guys in Bucholz, De La Rosa, and Kelley. At the end of the day, it looks like they traded Lester for Porcello straight up; a #1 starter for a #3 or 4. How much sense does that make??

          1. Not to toot my own horn but I called this trade a couple of days ago 🙂 I love it. The guys is young and a darn good pitcher.

      2. Ace…stats for Lester were very similar at age 25 except in two areas…Lester had a better winning pct and lower era but Porcello has more experience. Also during the four years up that Lester pitched (until he was 25) the Red Sox were a better team than the 6 years of Porcello’s tenure with the Tigers..not by much….but better. Right now he comes cheaper than Lester…but that will change in 2016 when he becomes a free agent.

  28. I am curious which teams are going to go after Scherzer and Shields and how much money each will get. I would not give Shields a ton of money. His postseason record is not good.

  29. I’m always in the holiday spirit regardless of weather. I have good memories of this season that took place in all types of weather patterns. 🙂 And the ability to make new memories each year.

  30. I love the weather today !!

    Other signs of how this storm is so wrapped up.

    37F with light rain in Caribou, ME …. 42F in Portland, ME

    the cold air is really arriving from the southwest.

    there’s this neat little snow area traversing southern New England.

    1. 100% agree. I can’t waste my time lamenting over something that 1) I can’t control and 2) I’m endlessly fascinated by. 🙂

    1. So as the low moves Westward across Northern NE, the snow is rotating all
      the way around and approaching us from the SW? Cool

  35. Good afternoon!! Snow showers this morning has just ended, no accumulation, just wet roads, TOMMORROW is the last day of work for 2014 🙂

  36. I love days like this. The air is crisp with a light breeze and smells like winter, light snow is falling. I just want to stand outside and take it all in. Adds to the Christmas spirit!!!

    2. This is the snow I wouldn’t mind on Christmas…looks nice, but doesn’t add up and require you to move it.

      1. Could not agree more. As sombody who does snow removal holidays just aren’t the right time. Of course we have no control over weather. I don’t care how much more money I would make I would rather be home with my wife and 10 yr old son. I can’t get these yrs back it’s one and done. It’s great to make money but family always first.

      2. I was thinking the very same thing. Snow all day and only minimal accumulation and no travel problems. Perfect snow….well I think any snow is perfect but…

  37. A quick take on the Sox moves today and then I’ll shut up.

    By acquiring Miley and Porcello the Sox are kind of doing what the Cardinals did (and are still doing) with their rotation for a number of years. Not really a true #1 (maybe Wainwright) but a boatload of #2 and 3 types. It’s worked out pretty well for them.

    I kinda feel like Charlie when he gets frustrated with Patriot talk…I feel the same way about baseball (not just the Sox). So I’ll just close out again on that note.

    Snowing very nicely here now.

  41. About Cole Hamels. Yes, he and Lester have similar stats during their 9 year career, no denying that. But its more than just the stats here. Hamels has had the benefit of the weak line-ups in the NL his entire career. In the AL, he would face legit #8 and 9 hitters. There’s no real way to quantify how much his stats are padded by this but IMO it puts him behind Lester. Regarding my puppy poo comment. While Hamels has shown he can pitch 200+ innings/season, his body make-up doesn’t lend itself to that kind of beating for the next 5+ years. Lester is a horse, solidly built for the long haul, much like a Clemens. I could see Lester pitching at a high level into his late 30’s. Hamels, not so sure. He has that “Bucholtz look” to him. He’s better than any starter the sox currently have, but to basically give up the farm system for him is not a smart move and not worth the immediate benefit.

    1. Lots of assumptions but who knows you may be right. Giving up the farm…that may not be the case and as I’ve pointed out before the Red Sox system is one of the highest rated in baseball (rated #1 by Topps) and you can afford to give up some of that talent (as all of it would never make the parent club) to get something of worth. That’s how a lot good teams have done it for years. Or would you rather be the Yankees…no farm system to speak of…an aging ballclub..and just keep throwing money away.

      If they make a play for Hamels look for the Sox to package Deven Marrero (hot ss prospect) and or Mookie Betts (not sure I like that) along with a pitching prospect and maybe Joe Kelly. Middlebrooks could also be a throw in although at this point his value is in the dumper (maybe if Jenny Dell goes in the package LOL). The Phillies are a team that is completely retooling and need a third baseman and a shortstop (they just let Jimmy Rollins go). They may have something in their minor league system at both positions but I’m not sure.

      Some other possible names have come up that other teams may be interested in (Mike Napoli, Brock Holt, to name a couple). I don’t the Sox are done by a long shot.

  42. Snowing good here. Solid high end light snow, bordering on moderate a few minutes ago.
    However, Sun visible behind the clouds.

  44. Ok…I have to stop looking at the computer….Sox just added Justin Masterson according to NESN. Injured part of last year but would be nice if he could come back..even as a middle or long guy out of the bullpen.

  45. Well it’s about that time of year to get back into the mix here, not that I don’t lurk around throughout the year, because I do. Looking forward to an active blog next week with the threat of storms increasing.

  46. Looked everything over today and so far, yes there are still 3 chances.

    Chances. Not certainties.

          1. Its weird, its like a huge spinning cut off low down in the SE states with a split stream. Northern stream is strong in that depiction, looks like it will shunt it south, or am i totally misreading it, lol

  47. I will take a chance at this point. Hopefully one of the three chances pans out with the 16th 17th, 21st 22nd, or 25th 26th and for
    the first time in my life I will have a White Thanksgiving and White Christmas.

  48. Very impressed with the ECMWF handling of our current decaying system. It did a much better job on handling the timing of the decaying system than I did. It was far too cold 120 hours out with the main system. Remember those 18-24″ ECMWF generated snow maps from last Thursday? But it did do a far superior job on recognizing the slow decay and departure of this system. Something I think it is usually too slow on, but really nice solution this time.

    Don’t get caught up with run to run for the period that is 5-15 days out. I am not bullish on the 17th. ECMWF has a nice .10 from Springfield to Worcester to Boston. Just don’t see that northern stream shortwave doing much, but maybe a little whitening of the ground. After that I am pretty much just glancing at the op runs and blending the ECMWF ENS with the GEFS and applying a bit of meteorology and instinct. Even the ensembles lost my idea at 12z for week 4 of December but lets see how it plays out. Still like the idea of just post Christmas but I know others don’t. We will see. Plenty of chances out there but dry is still possible too. I hope TV mets are not mentioning snow chances 9-10 days out. That would be a new low….all pun intended!

      1. I heard. I think the world of his work and his longevity in a short-term, consultant driven business, but that is disappointing, but hey I make daily errors in judgment and who is to say my approach is the right one?

    2. JMA I get tired of hearing myself say this but if the network is making this its practice I cannot hold Barry or Pete or any of them at fault.

  49. SIL was working in Taunton today and said after some initial light snow this morning it was bright and no snow. Driving home he hit the Franklin line on 495 and said it was like a completely different world with the snow and grey sky. Charlie hole??

  51. From DT…

    BOTTOM LINE … if some winter weather lovers and weenies could look pass their own internal agony of a mild December… tThey would see that the fact that we have already seen 4 significant coastal storms -3 of which which have been Noreasters- is indicative of a very stormy pattern and a very active winter. What we need now with the cold air pattern to return and as long as the southern stream means active…. which it will because of the weak El Nino …the East coast winter storm threat is going to remain quite high for most of January February and march.

    1. Good ole DT, his philosophy never changes, he leans towards cold and snow every year, he’s getting uptight now, he doesn’t like what he’s seeing 🙂

      1. Charlie he may not be that off. I think this month ends with white on the ground and feel most areas will have a white Xmas this year.

      3. His point was to all those calling winter over before it’s even started due to all the rain we’ve had and warmer than normal temps for some in the east that they need to look past that and realize the pattern we’re in is active and as it gets colder as expected late this month these events could turn into snow.

        1. And I agree. It’s been very active. Tk is thinking we get most snow in February if I’m correct . I’m not sure I’m buying into the mild pattern with on and off cold shots. Can’t forget the snow on Syberia and a very weak El Niño pattern. I’m betting with a new pattern setup this brings on the parade if you will of storms like we have been having but with more on the white vs liquid. Of course this is all just what I’m guessing . But I’m thinking are snow chances just start getting better .

  52. I kind of like what he said. Tk I don’t think February will be the snow month alone. I think we start getting into a parade of storms starting this month and continuing. Weak elnino usually spells more snow and yes I know it takes more than that. Time will tell.

  54. Busy/crazy day. My Boss up and quit on Tuesday.

    re: Weather
    Looking forward to 0Z model runs.

    Some signs looking good for a possible white Christmas. We shall see.

    Haven’t even had time to post my usual array of maps. Sorry about that.
    OR perhaps some are happy about that. 😀

    We’ll see how it goes.

      1. Thanks Vicki

        I “think” all will be fine at work. Crazy situation.

        Once I get to the office, I’m not likely to be able to check in as
        often as previously. 😀

  55. Charlie, you missed DT’s point completely. He was telling people that were all in a tizzy about not a lot of snow this month (ONLY 11 DAYS IN SO FAR BTW) to not flip out. And he is very likely correct in his overall assessment of the pattern. Much colder and many snow threats in January. Remember, his focus is on the Middle Atlantic. I think they are going to get a whole lot of snow in January. You keep the southern jet active and deliver some cold into the Northeast and the stage is set.

  56. I guess I disagree with DT a bit. Shocking….I know….

    You don’t need cold. Plenty of big storms have happened with out significant cold. A matter of fact too cold of a pattern can lead to a suppressed storm path.

    Just change the trough/ridge/zonal flow pattern for a brief time, at the right time and we will get good snow.

    Of course if you know me, you don’t need snow to fascinate me in the winter. I think this Tuesday-Friday system we have be under the influence of is one of the most interesting storms of recent months!

    1. I love systems like this for how they evolve. If they have snow, ok. If they have rain, ok.

      And I said above as well we don’t need big cold for snowstorms.

      I think January may be a suppressed storm path month.

  57. Good Morning

    KISS OF DEATH for the 17th System/chance for snow now that the Euro has
    a Freakin LAKES CUTTER!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

    http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/ecmwf/2014121200/ecmwf_mslpa_us_6.png

    Now the 22nd “looks” to go OTS, But still a “chance” I suppose

    http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/ecmwf/2014121200/ecmwf_mslpa_us_11.png

    http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/ecmwf/2014121200/ecmwf_z500a_us_11.png

    Figures. We go from a Lakes Cutter to Out to Sea. Can’t WIN!

      1. HOWEVER, CMC looks nice for the 21/22:

        http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/gem/2014121200/gem_mslpa_us_41.png

        http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/gem/2014121200/gem_T850_us_41.png

        http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/gem/2014121200/gem_z500a_us_41.png

        http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/gem/2014121200/gem_uv250_us_41.png

        COLD air very Marginal. Look at that 850mb map.

        Surface temps in the low to mid 30s at that map time.

        We shall see.

        1. GFS has a lakes cutter for the 17th, the sort of cuts
          across NE and ends up in the Gulf of Maine. A bit
          of a redevelopment. Hard to tell.

          http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/gfs/2014121206/gfs_mslpa_us_23.png

          Almost a carbon copy for the 21st.

          http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/gfs/2014121206/gfs_mslpa_us_36.png

          LAKES CUTTER for the 24th!!!!!

          http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/gfs/2014121206/gfs_mslpa_us_41.png

          Next post more about GFS version of Christmas storm

            1. Becomes a 960MB Mega BOMB just North
              of US in Canada:

              http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/gfs/2014121206/gfs_mslpa_us_45.png

              Of course this is ALL RAIN for our area, but given how far out it is, anything could happen.

              PLUS it’s the GFS. Can we trust that piece of crap that far out.

              ALL I can say is that it has consistently shown something in one form or other
              for many runs in succession. Something
              looks to happen around that time frame.

              Rain and/or even SNOW.

              We shall see.

  59. The FIM also has a LAKES CUTTER for the 17th

    http://fim.noaa.gov/FIM/for_web/fim9_jet/2014121200/130/3hap_sfc_f120.png

    For the 21st/22nd it has a system down the coast:

    http://fim.noaa.gov/FIM/for_web/fim7_jet/2014121112/236/3hap_sfc_f240.png

    http://fim.noaa.gov/FIM/for_web/fim7_jet/2014121112/236/temp_850_f240.png

    http://fim.noaa.gov/FIM/for_web/fim7_jet/2014121112/236/vort_500_f240.png

    BUT, that looks to pass harmlessly OTS

    STILL something to watch

  60. So, summing up our chances for a White Christmas….

    Looking slimmer than previously.

    I’d say here are the odds:

    17th time frame: 10%
    21st time frame: 40%
    25th time frame: 50%

    Just an educated guess after looking over the models this morning.
    Subject to change and Certainly others would have a Differing opinion on this.

    But this is what we do.

    Other thoughts? Opinions. I’m curious. I’d like to see IF I am out to lunch on this.
    😀

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