Heard It All Before

10:25PM

SUMMARY…
Frigid Friday, check.
Saturday snow, check.
Sunday mix, check.
Early week cold, check.
Watching midweek storm, check.
Basically no changes to the previous blog discussion.

SOUTHEASTERN NEW ENGLAND FORECAST…
OVERNIGHT: Mostly clear. Lows -5 to +10, coldest northwest interior MA and southern NH, mildest Cape Cod. Wind NW 15-25 MPH with higher gusts. Wind chill -5 to -20.
FRIDAY: Sunny. Highs 10-15 interior MA and southern NH, 15-20 elsewhere. Wind NW 15-25 MPH and gusty. wind chill near to below 0.
FRIDAY NIGHT: Mostly clear. Lows -5 to +10 from south central NH to Cape Cod. Wind NW to N 5-15 MPH.
SATURDAY: Increasing clouds. Snow developing west to east afternoon. Highs in the 20s. Wind N to NE 5-15 MPH.
SATURDAY NIGHT: Cloudy with snow of light to moderate accumulation, changing to sleet and freezing rain South Coast. Temperatures steady in the 20s. Wind light NE.
SUNDAY: Cloudy through midday with snow/sleet well northwest of Boston, snow to sleet and freezing rain Boston to Providence, sleet and rain South Coast. Precipitation ending west to east early afternoon with breaking clouds. Highs from near 30 northwest of Boston to 40-45 immediate South Coast. Wind NE under 10 MPH except SW to W 5-15 MPH near the South Coast, then shifting to NW all areas and increasing to 15-25 MPH during the afternoon.
MONDAY: Partly sunny. Low 5. High 25.
TUESDAY: Mostly sunny. Low 5. High 25.
WEDNESDAY: Mostly cloudy. Chance of snow. Low 15. High 25.
THURSDAY: Mostly cloudy. Chance of snow showers. Low 15. High 30.

219 replies on “Heard It All Before”

  1. Thanks, TK. Hoping next Wednesdsy misses. This region cannot handle another big snow storm. Channel 25 just called for 3-6 inches of wet, heavy snow for Saturday/Sunday. That will be ugly. Heading to Florida on 3/3. Hope the snow and the leaks in my house stop by then.

    1. It may not be all that heavy and wet in most areas as we may have a very sharp temp contrast and it may go quickly from a fine snow to a sleet when it changes. Also think most of the region will see under 0.75 inch melted with the 1+ inch melted amounts being confined to the South Coast & Cape Cod.

        1. Early feeling is I can see a 2-4 inch band right through this area including North Reading. A bit of a wildcard is there may be an initial thump of precip while it’s still cold enough to snow that could inflate the totals a bit.

  2. I think snow wise for Boston the earlier it starts the better if you want accumulating snows . I believe this is what you call a kitchen sink storm.

  3. 0Z Euro for 7PM Wednesday. I “think” this is a pretty Potent Storm at 963mb!!!

    https://pbs.twimg.com/media/B-RPghbCcAAybRd.png

    euro has been MEGA consistent with this run to run. Sure there have been some
    wobbling of strength and position, but it has been there for a couple of days now.

    I haven’t checked anything else just yet. But even so, how does this model have
    a 963mb BOMB and others have NOTHING. IF that is the case, something is
    WRONG!!!

    1. Checked CMC and GFS. They Do NOT have this feature.

      The do NOT go negative with 500MB flow while the Euro does.
      Euro has clipper merge with low off SE coast and BOMB out.
      CMC and GFS take clipper harmlessly North of us while showing nothing
      off SE coast.

      Given the DISASTEROUS NYC forecast of 60 inches of snow with one of
      our big storms, How can anyone in their right mind trust this piece of CRAP
      NOW???????

      We shall see.

    2. Checked the Wundermap, even at the OFF shore position, the Euro shows
      Really HEAVY SNOW BANDING the West and NorthWest of Center. This
      thing would CROAK us with BIG TIME SNOWS!!!

      Mark, have you seen a Snow map for this?

      Thanks

  4. Just wondering if anything changed over night for Sat/Sun forecast – On 6am news both Danielle Niles and channel 5 called for rain all the way up to the NH border. Danielle went as far to say that Boston could see .5″ of rain???

    1. Was just looking at some mesoscale models. They have it RAINING while
      850mb still supports snow. I believe they have the boundary layer to warm
      by 2-4 Degrees and THAT is the reason for RAIN.

      Not sure models are handling this SNOW PACK properly. I’m with TK.
      Surface does not switch until UPPER levels warm enough, then it would
      be sleet/Freezing rain and then finally rain when it’s just about over.

      I think that Danielle’s INEXPERIENCE is showing here.

      Hey, perhaps I’m full of crap and sorry for that. We shall see.

      1. FWIW, the 0Z EURO KEEPS IT ALL SNOW for Boston
        and Even down to parts of the South Shore.

        .5 inches of RAIN for Boston? yeah right!

        1. RPM which is the basic futurecast model for WBZ/WCVB is the warmest of the guidance and that is why you are seeing so much rain in their forecast graphics

          1. And do you think it is correct? That is the big question. And How does that model handle
            the refrigerator effect of our current deep snow pack? Curious and as always, thank you for your thoughts and valuable information.

  5. NWS re: Wednesday Threat

    TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY…

    LOW CONFIDENCE FORECAST IN THIS TIME FRAME BUT WERE GOING TO HAVE TO WATCH THE POTENTIAL FOR ANOTHER WINTER STORM. NEARLY 6 DAYS OUT BUT THERE LOOKS TO BE SOME POTENT NORTHERN STREAM ENERGY IN PLACE. IF THE TIMING WORKS OUT…WE COULD BE DEALING WITH ANOTHER SIGNIFICANT WINTER STORM. HOWEVER…WE COULD ALSO SEE A WEAKER SYSTEM ESCAPE OUT TO SEA IF THINGS DO NOT PHASE PERFECTLY.

  6. Lots of melting Sunday in and around Boston. Mostly because of fog. But also some rain (thankfully not a lot). I don’t think it’ll be a disastrous melt, as temps don’t soar and the rain will not be pouring. If there isn’t much snow from this weekend’s event (inch or two) and Wednesday’s does not materialize, Pete Bouchard could be right about the 95-96 record holding. It’s way too early to really say, but I see a significant warm-up occurring in the next 10 days with no other snow threats other than Wednesday. March could be tame. I emphasize “could” because we know March can be ferocious. Personally I’d like 95-96 to hold as I think that was a perfect winter: Long, consistent, many snowstorms.

    1. Sunday will NOT be a problem with this wimpy event.
      Not enough qpf to matter around here. There “may” be a bit more
      concern way to the South.

      As far as the record. We have endured SO MUCH in such a short time period, to me, I WANT that damn record BROKEN! We need to come away with something for it.

      As for Pete. I still think he is DEAD WRONG about the 95-96 record holding.
      I know people on this blog like Pete and I’m not going to say anything other
      than that I think he is wrong, that is all. 😀

    2. Just my thoughts here (no based on anything else as I haven’t had much time to look at anything over the last 3 days) but while I think there will be a warm up coming up in the next 10 days I don’t think there will lots of melting on Sunday in the Boston area. Down my way and especially SSE of me in central and southern Plymouth county there might be a nice amount of melting but north of me I think melting will be limited due to lack of sunshine and that most of the precip will be light in that area. We shall see.

      1. I think you have a handle on things.

        Something like 2-4 inches of snow, some sleet and perhaps a bit of rain. Should be NO problem Boston area Northward. South Coast,
        Cape and Islands May have more in the way of RAIN, so there
        may be some melting and more of a concern, additional roof load
        as the existing snow soaks up the rain.

    3. Joshua, I often find ourselves disagreeing this winter and this will be no different. I still don’t see any major warmup into March and the trough in the east looks to be persistent and continually reinforced with cold from canada. The GFS continues to show storm threats into March so I’m not sure what you are basing this on. I’m also not very bullish on the “melt” or rain for Sunday. I live 30 miles north of Boston so I think I’m pretty safe but I don’t think the rain will make it as far north as the models are depicting. The snowpack we have now is getting older, compacting, and strengthening against a major melt if we only stick in the 30s. I just don’t see what you are seeing. The Euro has been bad this winter and I’d lean towards it correcting out to sea for Wednesday. The one question is now that the southern stream is becoming more of an active player does that change how the models will handle the rest of the winter? For now the GFS has proved itself worthy of a heavier weighting.

  7. Greetings from Cape Cod.

    6-9 hrs precip with -5C (850 mb) temps later Saturday into Saturday evening, even in far SE Mass.

    I think a quick 2-4 or 3-6 front end dump gets all the way down to the Cape Cod bridges, because I’m banking that we’ll get some moderate to heavy precip in those 6-9 hrs of initially cold 850 mb temps.

    I do think Marshfield and extreme SE Mass get some rain and get to 40F, but agree that Boston and points N and W struggle big time to 32F. Halfway into the event, Logan and points N/ W will have calm winds or light N surface drain and that will spell the end to any mild surface air.

    Checking in later, off to the pool.

    1. ENJOY Tom!
      Thanks for your thoughts. We are pretty much in agreement.
      Funny you said 6 inches. NWS did mention that as a possibility. 😀

    2. Youngest and her family will be heading to your area for the weekend as a getaway. You go south to CC and they go south to …well – South Shore 🙂 Enjoy Tom.

  8. Dr. Judah Cohen’s latest:

    February 19, 2015

    Summary

    The AO and NAO will remain positive to strongly positive for the next two weeks and likely beyond as the stratospheric polar vortex continues to strengthen and relocate toward the pole.
    Regionally, in conjunction with Pacific forcing, the Western North American ridge / Eastern North American trough pattern will remain in place through the next two weeks, with some weakening of this pattern likely at the end of week 2. Nevertheless, the Eastern half of the continent will remain below to much below normal temperature-wise with mild to warm conditions further westward.
    In Europe and Asia, seasonable to seasonably warm conditions will hold for Eastern Europe into central Eurasia. Cooler than normal conditions will continue for the Mediterranean and parts of eastern Asia.
    The long-range prospects continue to favor a positive AO pattern and an eventual de-amplification of the hemispheric pattern, especially for the Western Hemisphere. This should allow for less extreme temperature conditions to take hold mid- and late- March and present an overall milder regime for the mid-latitudes.

    Whole write-up

    http://www.aer.com/science-research/climate-weather/arctic-oscillation

  9. Kinda hard to say Pete or anyone is wrong or right about breaking the record when we are not there yet but if he is wrong, he is. It’s his view…right? Although, I am still trying to find where he said that.

    Also, and on the funny side, the model Pete showed with rain well into NH and ME (and said it wasn’t going to happen) which was criticized on here is now what BZ is showing on air and says IS going to happen.

    Not sure why there is a need to critique other mets on here. I think that there is some misunderstanding about some of us (that’s me) who like Pete for just not liking the need to find fault with any of the mets. I see why there is a misunderstanding. It started with Pete and I was (and am and will continue to be until I’m tossed from here) vocal about it. However, now, Eric gets criticized here along with others and in every case I have considerable trouble understanding why there is a need. Kinda why I thought many, including me, left BZ.

    Sorry for the soapbox and just my opinion.

    1. No SoapBox. That’s fine.
      I am sorry, but yup, I am guilty sometimes. Hey I just blasted Danielle above.

      I just call then as I see them. Hell, I blasted HARVEY for being firmly in the
      RAIN Camp.

      I am NEVER criticizing the individual, just their forecasts, or their on air
      content. I can’t help it.

      If I think someone is Wrong, I will state it. Am I always right? ha ha ha
      Oh sure Always. Never been wrong in my life. OF course I’m wrong and a lot.

      Unless I am told by TK to STOP, I will continue to do so.

      After this Winter, There is ONE and ONLY ONE go to ON AIR Meteorologist in Boston and that is hands down Eric Fisher. Harvey has taken a step back
      in my humble opinion and so has Matt Noyes and David Epstein.

      End of my Soap and HOPE I have not offended anyone as that is NOT NOT
      my intention. 😀

      1. OS – you never offend. The best part of this blog is that we can state opinions and they are all respected.

        psssttttt I will not tell John you blasted Harvey…..but did you blast Harvey or his forecast 😆

        1. Oh his forecast, of course. He was in the RAIN camp and I was FLORED by that!!! Have NOTHING against Harvey. He was always one of my favorites, I was just SHOCKED to see him totally IGNORE the refrigeration effect of our
          DEEP SNOW PACK. 😀

    2. I like Pete too. I know the other day he said something about being the only one in the studio that didn’t think we would break the snow record. I think his exact words were something about the cheese standing alone. I think it was just a little banter on air, kind of folksy and friendly. There are mets I like to watch and others I tolerate and some just plain annoy me. I like Pete and I’ll leave it at that.

      I come to this blog not knowing a whole lot about meteorology but wanting to learn. I like reading everyone’s analyses. I’ve gotten help here with some lessons that I wanted to teach. And I generally like the banter. And this week, I’ve been stuck at home so I’ve enjoyed checking in. I don’t post much, since I really don’t have much to contribute.

      OK, someone else can have the soapbox now.

  10. The CORE of this latest Arctic outbreak was clearly to the SW of us.
    Pittsburg area broke ALL sorts of record low temperatures this morning.

  11. I say the 5 is
    Tk , Barry, Pete, Eric, harvey
    no specific order all special in their own way..
    Pete usually goes warm with his forecasts and Eric goes cold
    Harvey and Barry are neutral goes both ways and We all know TK 🙂

    by the way what Tk thought is exactly what has happened or looks to happen for this weekend

    1. I don’t think Eric goes cold. Eric goes the way he sees it and he sees it better
      than most, most of the time. Just my opinion and that’s all it is. 😀

      My wife and I were discussing Eric and his forecasts last night.
      We both agreed that He is the BEST on air Met ever in our opinion.

      We have many FINE on air mets. If you like one, great. No problems.

      1. I am with you, OS, regarding Eric, but also agree that Boston TV mets in general are the best in the country.

  12. I enjoy most of them, Matt Noyes from NECN I follow as well as Todd Gutner up in Maine for broader New England coverage.

  13. I gotta weigh in on the on-air mets discussion. After spending 3 days in NY, Boston has by far the best TV mets, no contest. Even the worst (relatively speaking) ones are heads and shoulders above the one’s I have watched in those 3 days. That goes for overall news casters as well. We are very fortunate.

    1. Mix line will stop between Tom (Marshfield) and Keith (Hingham). Just north of there very wet snow with 3″ to 6″ likely. 2″ to 4″ south of that line.

  14. Hmmm great discussion and excellent points. I think sometimes the wording is what bothers me as it does come across as personal…..and in some instances it is and in some instances it certainly is not. Disagreeing with a media met’s forecast never bothers me nor should it. If it does, then I need to take a look at my view as it would be completely wrong. IMHO Criticizing them is very wrong. I do believe that the written word can be misunderstood and perhaps that comes into play. From now on, I will attempt to ask if the comment is simply a disagreement with forecast or a barb tossed 🙂

    And Mel – I don’t have to look for where Pete said that as your paraphrasing of his comment is so Pete that it made me laugh. It’s part of what I like about him.

  15. We’re VERY FORTUNATE with our TV and radio announcers, anchorpeople, commentators, sports, weather. Boston still has a healthy, vibrant college radio scene. I don’t know any other city in the country with that. Boston still has knowledgable sports and weather people who generally are not there for their looks. Boston still has local programming (think, greater Boston, Chronicle) that is head and shoulders above other markets’ local programming.

    1. Well Said Joshua.

      Presonally, I like WERS. (Emerson)
      Since they moved WBCN to the internet, WERS has been my go to station. 😀

      1. Yes despite the radio scene not being as good as say 25 years ago in Boston it’s still light years ahead of other major markets. In today’s day and age of cookie cutter stations and their owners (Clear Channel, Entercom, etc) we are very fortunate. WERS is the best college station in the country (has one award after award) and to have 2 NPR stations (well 3 if count WUMB) is also a good thing. There is still some wonderful local ownership too WATD 95.9 on FM and WJIB 740 on AM are two examples. OS I’m currently reading Carter Allan’s excellent history of WBCN…you should pick up a copy.

        1. I listened to BCN since the day the started operations.
          I LOVED that station. Peter Wolf actually DJ’d some there.

          Where is that available as I would, indeed, be interested.

          Thanks for the tip.

  16. Regarding Wednesday, I’m curious to how the models play this.

    Will the GFS and CMC climb aboard the Euro Snow Train OR
    Will the Euro Snow train get DERAILED and the Euro ends up in
    Camp GFS?

    I’ll be watching.

    A 963MB SNOW BOMB has to GIVE one pause. We DON’T NEED THAT ONE!

    1. OS – is the timing during day Wednesday or does it go into Thursday. We need another trip to Brigham Thurs so hoping it will be ok. Thanks.

      1. I don’t like the sounds of all of these trips in there.
        I sincerely hope all is OK.

        Re: Wednesday
        ONLY the Euro and somewhat the JMA have this
        GFS and CMC say NO WAY JOSE!!!!

        Assuming for a moment Euro is correct, Start time would be
        around 7AM for the very beginning of the event. REALLY gets going around 1PM or so. Again this is the EURO. The others don’t have it, so I wouldn’t worry at this point.

        We are watching.

        1. Thank you, OS. Mac is having a small setback but the surgical procedure the other day seems to be working. The cancer pill isn’t doing the job they hoped so he had another biopsy and we are praying that the mutation matches another, very positive, clinical trial. Next week is just a followup so not critical that he get there.

          1. Vicki, will keep you and Mac in my thoughts and prayers! Extra prayers for Mac that he is a good candidate for the clinical trial!!!

      1. Well, even Bernie was talking about a front end thump, then still put Boston in 1-3. That “may” be a tad low. I’d place Boston
        in 2-4 if not the full blown 3-6.

  17. Vicki, sending you and Mac my positive thoughts. I know all too well the ups and downs of the world you have been living in since diagnosis. I sincerely hope for the best 🙂

  18. re: Wednesday

    GFS still says NOPE! Not having any part of it and this is what Drives my NUTS with the computer models. I would expect ALL of them to show some sort of feature with
    differences in strength and position, but to have NOTHING while another mode
    has a 963MB BOMB???? Well something seems AMUCK to me. Makes no sense to em at all.

    GFS takes the clipper too far North and thus there is NO chance for phasing.
    Euro brings it down through the Lakes and Phases everything up. So I suppose that
    is the difference. The handling of the Upper flow separates reality from Pipe Dreams.
    And this Winter one would HAVE to lean towards the GFS. BUT the second you do that, you get caught with your pants down. GO FIGURE.

    1. My wife is getting a chance to take a much deserved breather in Florida for almost a week.

      Guess when her flight out is scheduled ….. Wednesday morning.

      And so, a little bit of angst with the GFS vs EURO solutions.

      She called the airlines and if they post a pre storm advisory, to change flights is free, if you do it before the airline posts an advisory, you get the change fees.

      I told her to change to Tuesday morning, if possible and pay the change fees. Its worth the peace of mind.

    1. OS ……. the GFS, NAM and this all show decent snow at NYC, Philly, DC. I think this is because a good slug of precip gets in with cold 850 mb temps. Same thing happens here, but I’m guessing the models look south of us and with the ocean south of us, warm our area’s boundary layer much too quickly.

      I think 4, maybe 5 quick inches at Logan, about 3, maybe 4″ in Marshfield. Time frame about 5pm to midnight Saturday night.

  19. Thinking of you and Mac, Vicki. They do amazing things in medicine every day, and there’s really no place better than Boston for medicine. I’m sending all my positive thoughts and intentions your way.

  20. Well the 12z Canadian has the Wednesday storm.

    http://www.stormvistawxmodels.com/img/cmc/current/12z/CMC_MSLPThickQPF_ne_f126.png?v=1424451624

    978mb low just east of New England. Some of the 6z GFS ensembles have something too. Will be interesting to see if the 12z Euro stays the course. The potential for a larger storm is definitely there, but everything needs to come together just right. If no phasing we are just dealing with a weak clipper system.

    GFS/Euro are also continuing to show a decent sized storm threat around 3/1-3/2

    1. Charlie are you for real?
      Where the hell do you get you information? Dick’s Sporting Goods?
      CVS? Where?

    2. Sorry man. Not with you there. Even if the entire storm were rain, I’m not sure less than 1″ qpf would qualify IMO. I think for it to be considered lots or rain, you need to get up near 1 to 2 inches of it and I don’t the potential for that in any of the models.

    1. Now looks very much like the GFS does. 😀

      That’s probably a wrap on that one. We shall see if it gets revived or not.
      We certainly can’t trust the Canadian as it has been useless this Winter.

  21. Some of you earlier were posting about the great radio stations we have in Boston — public radio, college stations, etc. So, just an FYI, that my daughter is a 2014 Emerson grad and was on air at WERS for about 18 months. She was great, if I do say so myself. 🙂

    1. What time of day? I wonder IF I had heard her on air.
      I listen on the way in to work. Say 7:45 to 8:15 or so.
      Sometimes at lunch. 12:15-12:30 or so. 😀

        1. She was usually on the afternoon drive time, but also the 10 a.m. to 2 p.m. shift. She cut her teeth on the 2 a.m. – 6 a.m. shift and usually would walk from her apartment in the back bay to Emerson at the time – yikes.

  22. Wonder what the ensembles show. At Mark’s suggestion I took a look at the GFS
    ensembles from Previous run. I saw 7 out of 20 showing a block buster storm
    for us.

    So, I am really interesting to see the 12Z ensemble members.

    It sure looks like it’s a very tricky situation. Change something just a bit and KABOOM, else NOTHING! WOW! Talk about a volatile atmosphere!!

  23. I know its 15F today and there’s a ton of snow out there ….

    By the numbers (days to get to these happenings for Logan) ……

    11 hrs sunlight : 4 days

    5:30pm sunset : 6 days

    40 degree sun angle : 9 days

    DST and a 6:42 pm sunset : 16 days

    Vernal equinox : exactly 4 weeks from today at around 6:30 pm.

    Its been a crazy month, but the astronomical trek to spring has been continuing along and its not too far away.

    1. Yes, BUT will Meteorological Spring catch up?
      So far it seems NO.

      As far as the eye can see, NOTHING BUT SNOW!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

        1. Agree but I am standing behind my unscientific call that this winter will fizzle after Presidents Day weekend.

  24. Btw, re: Wednesday

    I tweeted Eric Fisher and he responded as follows:

    Eric Fisher ‏@ericfisher 5m5 minutes ago
    @JpDave13 pattern says the risk is still there…energy will get closer to us this weekend so could lock back in

    Them thar are scary words, to say the least.

    1. That is some potent northern stream energy and needs to be watched. Either way, we probably end up with some snow showers here in that timeframe from the clipper if there is no phasing.

      This could be one of those situations we have seen in past years where models see a storm threat in the long range, only to lose in the mid range, and then bring it back around day 3. In fact, a few of our bigger storms this year, in this pattern, did not get locked down until about 3 days before the actual event.

      1. The fact that so many ensemble members had that storm, makes me think it’s coming BACK!

        I wish we could know which Parameters are changed and by how much for each ensemble run.

        Something like, Ensemble #1, Initial pressure increased by 10 mb or initial temperature decreased by 2C. I mean something to go on.

    2. hmmmmmm and yes scary

      How is your leak? I notice that the roof snowcover has melted or compacted or something a fair amount.

    1. Thanks JJ – the doctor told him the procedure they did last Tuesday would make his golf game better!! That’s all he needed to hear 🙂

    1. OS, in looking at the 12z ensembles on the PSU ewall – I saw 4 members depicting a phased ocean storm in close proximity. Two of them looked like a decent hit, one a grazer, and the other a near miss.

      You can see the precip fields on the PSU site though not sure why it only shows 12 ensembles when there are actually 20??

      1. Let me have a look there. Fascinating. I honestly forgot those
        were available there.

        The MeteoCentre has the ensembles with Precipitation as well
        and has all 20 of them. It just wasn’t ready when I posted>

        120 hours

        http://meteocentre.com/models/get_ensemble.php?lang=en&map=na&run=12&mod=ncep_geps&stn=PNMPR&stn_type=postagestamp&display=img&hh=120

        132 hours

        http://meteocentre.com/models/get_ensemble.php?lang=en&map=na&run=12&mod=ncep_geps&stn=PNMPR&stn_type=postagestamp&display=img&hh=132

        144 hours

        http://meteocentre.com/models/get_ensemble.php?lang=en&map=na&run=12&mod=ncep_geps&stn=PNMPR&stn_type=postagestamp&display=img&hh=144

        The E wall has the 500MB ensembles. I like looking at those

        http://mp1.met.psu.edu/~fxg1/ENSHGT_12z/f132.html

          1. Yes, we “may” not be out of the woods just yet on this. We’ll need to monitor.

            Most likely no storm, but there is still a possibility.

            And while we are discussing this, can anyone tell me how within 12 hours time a computer model
            can go from a 963mb Bomb to absolutely NOTHING????? WOW! WOW! and DOUBLE WOW! How can that be? The whole process gives me pause.

    1. We are getting to that time of year where the interior areas tend to cash in better than the coast. Though we have a long way to go to catch up!

      1. Yes, the Cape in particular tends not to have much snow in March. However, there was a beautiful graphic which someone on this blog sent on March 22, 2013 when ALL of New England, including the Cape and Islands, have measurable snow on the ground. Unbelievable!

        1. JJ, I have received 66″ in Coventry thus far. The hills of Tolland and Windham Counties, and in general, areas further east in the state have faired much better than BDL and Hartford.

    2. Makes all the sense in the world, JJ. This storm will also give the mountains snow. Not that they really need it. But, many mountain areas have had less snow than Boston!

    3. Hmm If you look at the total qpf, Boston comes in with “about” 0.8 inches, YET
      the map shows 2-3 inches of snow. There may be a brief period of sleet, however,
      for MOST of the event, conditions are favorable for SNOW!

      I then looked at the 2M Temperatures. This NAM run has it getting it
      to 40 Degrees F at Boston. NO WAY!! Therefore, the SNOW MAP for Boston
      is LOW!!

      Boston comes in at something like 4-6 inches in my opinion. We shall see.

  25. On one hand, I’ll be sad to see the huge snow-pack diminish. On the other, it’s got to go sooner or later. Thankfully this weekend will not see dramatic flooding or excessive melting. But, we will see plenty of melting. By Monday all parking meters will be showing again, and park bench tops, too. I’m surprised that the Sunday forecast doesn’t include fog, because there will be plenty of that. We know what fog does to snow.

    I’d like to see one more snowstorm to break the record, but I feel we won’t quite make it. Wednesday’s storm looks iffy. After that, several cold days but (relative) warmth is coming and snow threats will dissipate.

    1. Joshua, you continue to push this warm, foggy, and rainy scenario for Boston. I’m curious as to your reasoning here given the strong evidence supporting a much colder solution. You are staring to make me think Charlie has two accounts on this blog

  26. I’m not Charlie #2. I don’t even like spring. I admit haven’t been as bullish as others on snow this year, and I’ve been wrong several times. HSo, I could be wrong again. owever, with this upcoming event I do see evidence that it will be mostly a mix/rain at the coast after some front-end snow. Not a lot of rain, and not very warm, either. However, I really do think Sunday will be a miserable, drizzly, foggy 40 degree day in Boston. Unfortunately. This said, it beats a 2 inch rainstorm and 50s, because that would cause tremendous flooding.

    1. I don’t see Boston hitting 40 Degrees on Sunday.
      If you are going by the NAM, it is Wrong as it does Not know how to
      deal with a 3-4 foot snow pack.

  27. Even with frigid temps today, the sun has accomplished some melting of side streets and sidewalks and driveways down to bare pavement that were once covered with a thin icy layer of snow.

  28. That combination I posted the other day of hot water, dawn soap and rubbing alcohol actually works for both melting and avoiding refreezing.

    1. Vicki, can u send that again? I didn’t see that post. Is it for melting the ice on horizontal surfaces or can it be used to melt ice dams?

      1. This isn’t the one I posted yesterday but it is what we did. As the article says, I was worried it would make it more slippery. I am typically a wreck with Mac getting out of the house using his walker because he steps right down onto a concrete stoop that has water dripping from above. It has been freezing several inches thick. Daughter has treated it each morning and so far it has not refrozen. I will ask if it refroze overnight.

        I also wondered about the roof. But my ice dams are so thick that they’d have to be chopped. Next year I’m thinking of doing this proactively.

        http://wafflesatnoon.com/melt-sidewalk-ice-dawn-dish-soap/

        1. Vicki, our ice dams were at least 6-12″ thick and surprisingly the roof melts broke through the dams.
          No more leaks as of yesterday (finger’s crossed)!!!

    2. Thanks for the tip, Vicki! I just might give it a try 🙂
      Especially on my bluestone steps where calcium chloride or any other ice melt destroys them! It makes them peel like mica in the spring!

  29. 18z NAM is hinting at, not the arctic front, but a cool boundary sagging right back SE thru New England btwn hrs 36-42.

    You can see it in the surface pressure maps on the hours 36-42.

    On hr 36, the sag, it looks like a small v in the isobars going from Long Island to east of Delaware. It progresses Southeastward thru hr 42.

    Similarly, the strongest winds push right offshore. Guess what stops strong surface winds ….. When cooler, dense air replaces mild, more unstable air.

    So ….. I’ll bet a push of “cooler air” pushes right back into southeastern Mass just before dawn Sunday morning and that these areas hang in the low-mid 30s during Sunday ahead of the arctic front.

    The NAM sfc temp maps are laughable. Somewhere around hr 39, it has -10C in VT and then, 3 hrs later, it has 0C. Thats all I need to see to discard those.

      1. Yes.

        I could see around 1am, at its mildest, Marshfield being 40F and Logan being 36F or 37F, but ….

        I just dont think that lasts, even though the arctic front really wont arrive until Sunday evening.

        The interior cold will push back before dawn Sunday towards the coastline and most of Sunday would be around 31 or 32F at Logan and drop towards 34F or 35F at Marshfield.

        Still like 3-5 quick inches of snow Saturday evening also.

    1. * HAZARD TYPES…SNOW AND FREEZING RAIN.

      * ACCUMULATIONS…SNOW ACCUMULATION OF AROUND 3 TO 5 INCHES…
      WITH THE POTENTIAL OF A TRACE UP TO A TENTH OF AN INCH OF ICE
      ACCUMULATION.

  30. I’d say probably 2-4″ of snow for Boston tomorrow. Definitely will change to sleet and yes, some rain. High in the city probably around 38. There won’t be much melting. For one thing, we’ll be adding snow before we take away. And with this much snow on the ground and temperatures only in the mid-upper 30s, the snow pack will just absorb what comes. It’ll compact a few inches, but it won’t melt much, it’ll just get heavier. Luckily it’s not too much rain though.

    Too early to write off the midweek system, though right now odds favor a miss. And as to the record, one way or another, it will undoubtedly fall. Look at the calendar. Last time I checked we regularly get accumulating snow right through mid March, at least. It won’t even take a big storm, although it’s possible one could happen. But just a couple minor events and we’re there after this weekend.

    1. You could be correct on Snow. I personally think that 3-5 or even 4-6 is the correct snow figure for Boston. Will measure when it comes.

      Re: Logan High
      I think 34 or 35 does it. We shall see. 😀

      1. I went a little warmer. All it takes is a quick burst of warmth to get to a slightly higher number. But most of the day will likely be spent at 35 or less, and it’s possible as you say that we never get above that.

    2. I should say 2-4″ tomorrow into Sunday, with a high around 38 Sunday, not tomorrow of course. A bit tired from the school week, lol. TGIF 🙂

    1. Agree! and I’m starting to think we have a pretty good shot at breaking the 107.6 record before the month’s up.

  31. For me, its the front end snow in Boston and Marshfield thats the wild card. Depends on how quick and how heavy the front end precip is.

    I feel very confident that the mildest part of this event takes place about 10pm to 4am Sunday morning.

    I also think that some kind of push back to the coastline of “cool” air arrives pre-dawn Sunday, and thus it wont be 40F+ anywhere Sunday ahead of the arctic front. 30s Sunday on Cape Cod, back to near 32F in Boston Sunday with steady temps.

    1. Tom take a look down stream. I’m not sure what is happening, but
      the qpfs to our SouthWest are HUGE. The system gets up here and it has nothing left to give. You talk about a front end. Consider this:

      Let’s say the models are wrong and whatever dynamics are in place to produce the copious QPFs to our Southwest, Hold together longer and our front end
      dump is MUCH larger than expected? Chew on that one for awhile. 😀

      1. Good stuff OS !

        I think thats related to the boundary layer in eastern New England.

        A S or SW wind in DC, Philly and NYC is off land. But, in Boston, Marshfield and the rest of SE Mass, it does come off of the ocean, even 40 miles away. So, I can see why the models drop off the snowfall suddenly in eastern and southeastern Mass. Except, the ocean temp even south of us is 37F, there’s 2+ ft of snow depth to the immediate south coast, etc.

        I think the boundary layer holds up ok until 10pm tomorrow night, I guess I called it my wild card cause I never fully trust whether the precip will end up being heavy or not.

  32. re: temperatures
    From Eric Fisher

    Eric Fisher ‏@ericfisher 6m6 minutes ago
    The only spots I think can break 40F on Sat night/Sunday are Cape/Islands/South Coast. Everyone else should stay locked in the 30s.

    1. He’s good. 🙂 🙂

      Worried though, even in spite of this not being a 50F rain event, of the effect on the roofs.

      In some ways, I think this is much worst.

      At 50F, the snow melt is quick enough to offset or even outproduce any gain by the rain.

      But this means additional wet snow followed by what could be sleet, ice or rain with temps in the 30s which means absorption of additional weight.

      Not good.

      1. Agreed and Eric has been warning of this, most especially for
        more Southern Sections that still have tons of snow and WILL
        see more rain from this event.

  33. I know at my mom’s the guy came today to get clear the roof and get the ice jams out of the gutter. Just precautionary after all the snow we had in January 2011 that caused damage to 3 rooms in the house and don’t want a repeat of that.

    Were expecting 4-6 inches in my area.

  34. Another argument for decent front end snow in eastern and southeastern Mass.

    On the 18z NAM, check out hr 30. 850mb temps -5 to -10C, radar impressive.

    Even on the milder 18z GFS, hr 33. 850mb temps -2 to -5C, precip rate in inches/hr pretty impressive.

  35. From NWS re: Next week’s event/non-Event

    TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY…

    THE 12Z ECMWF HAS LOST THE POTENTIAL COASTAL STORM AND THE GFS HAS
    NOT SHOWN MUCH OF ANYTHING ON ITS LAST FEW RUNS. HOWEVER…THE
    GGEM/UKMET ALONG WITH SOME OF THE ECMWF/GGEM ENSEMBLES STILL SHOW
    POTENTIAL FOR AT LEAST SOME SNOW WITH COASTAL LOW PRESSURE. A LOT
    WILL DEPEND ON STRENGTH AND TIMING OF NORTHERN STREAM ENERGY/
    PHASING. STILL WAY TOO EARLY TO COMPLETELY WRITE THIS STORM OFF
    AND WILL CONTINUE WITH CHANCE POPS FOR SNOW. WILL JUST HAVE TO
    AWAIT MODEL TRENDS OVER THE NEXT 24 TO 48 HOURS TO SEE IF THEY
    BRING BACK THE STORM OR LEAN MORE TOWARDS WRITING IT OFF. NEEDLESS
    TO SAY A VERY LOW CONFIDENCE FORECAST OVER THIS TIME.

  36. Shotime what did you do for roof melts. The hockey puck melts are not getting through ours. Also daughter did not pour that solution on the stoop and driveway path to our car today and it did not re freeze.

    1. Vicki, I did use the hockey pucks (calcium chloride). I didn’t place them directly on the gutters, but back about a 6-10″ beyond the gutter. They did take 2 days and 2 applications for best results.

        1. I tossed our back too. One roof gets no sun. Other gets really good sun. I’ll toss some more tomorrow. Thanks

  37. Totally off topic of weather but on the subject of very creepy. My FB account is not tied in any way to my regular email account. Using my reg email I was looking at vacuums on target website today. I have a newsfeed on FB telling me not to take my time deciding which vacuum. Big brother is everywhere. Wow

  38. TK, thoughts on Sarasota to Baltimore 5am to 7pm tomorrow? Sunday we will leave Baltimore at 8am and arrive in North Attleboro at 2pm or so. Think we will be fine on Sunday though.

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