Saturday Snow, Sunday Sun

111 Comments

11:47AM

SUMMARY…
Focusing on the weekend for this update, as this is where I have the most confidence. An inverted trough extending northwestward from an offshore storm will focus moisture with enough cold air in place for snow today. Where it started as rain south of Boston it will transition to snow there by afternoon. Minor accumulations are expected (generally under 3 inches) especially on unpaved surfaces, through early evening before it exits north to south tonight. By Sunday, any early clouds will depart and we’ll be left with sunshine but a chill in the air (though the sun itself will feel warmer) as a small area of high pressure moves in. Looking ahead, a couple of systems will pass through the region as March ends, bringing lots of clouds and a few rain/snow showers Monday and Tuesday. April should begin fairly nice on Wednesday between systems. But another low pressure area will approach Thursday with clouds returning and eventual wet weather, this time mild enough for rain. With much less confidence in timing and details I do think we’ll see variable temperatures and unsettled weather heading through Friday and Saturday, probably mild Friday and colder Saturday. I’ll give that period my best shot for now and fine tune later.

SOUTHEASTERN NEW ENGLAND FORECAST…
THIS AFTERNOON: Overcast with snow of varying intensity, some rain/snow mix early South Coast then snow. Temperatures steady in the 30s. Wind N 5-15 MPH.
THIS EVENING: Cloudy with snow continuing early then tapering off north to south. Accumulation of 1/2 to 2 inches most areas, locally over 2 inches possible, mainly on unpaved surfaces. Temperatures fall to around 30. Wind N 5-15 MPH and gusty.
OVERNIGHT: Clearing north to south. Lows in the 20s. Wind N 5-15 MPH.
SUNDAY: Mostly sunny. Highs around 40. Wind NW to W 5-15 MPH.
MONDAY: Mostly cloudy. Chance of very light snow early then chance of late day rain showers. Low 30. High 45.
TUESDAY: Variably cloudy. Slight chance of snow showers. Low 25. High 40.
WEDNESDAY: Partly sunny. Low 30. High 50.
THURSDAY: Cloudy. PM rain. Low 35. High 45.
FRIDAY: Mostly cloudy. Chance of rain showers. Low 40. High 55.
SATURDAY: Mostly cloudy. Chance of rain or snow showers. Low 35. High 45.

111 thoughts on “Saturday Snow, Sunday Sun”

  2. Looking back on the last eight weeks, Taunton NWS (KBOX) had been reporting 6″+ of measured snow for 59 consecutive days (January 26-March 25)…That’s simply incredible!

    1. He is doing well considering! Doing his daily exercise and using the walker much better now. He’s getting stronger. 🙂

      Now 2 of his sisters are in the hospital. They are 89 and 96. Nothing surprising as they have been in declining health.

  4. Thanks TK !

    As we approach solar noon, the temps ever so slowly continue downward.

    32F now at Logan.

    3 or 4pm this afternoon, once the sun gets lower in the sky as the temps continue their very slow fall, things will turn white.

    The wind is pretty impressive !

  5. Light snow, temp has inched up too 35.7 degrees, no accumulations this far even though it’s been snowing since about 6am, like Tk said if this were an overnight storm it would be a 3-6 inch snow event, not the case, gonna be more like coatings to 2 inches mainly on grassy and car tops, and most of any accumulations will be after 5pm until about 8 or 9pm when it ends. 🙂

  7. Nothing up here…intensity varies but is never too bad. Light coating under pine tree but everything has the “just rained” look.

  8. Proof elevation plays a major role in events like this one!!!

    NWS Boston ‏@NWSBoston 36m36 minutes ago
    MT @charlesorloff: 2015 Seasonal record snow continues to grow- 2.2″ at Blue Hill Observatory as of 10 a.m. brings seasonal snowfall to 148″

    I am a mere 8 miles from Blue Hill.
    Perhaps a 1/4 inch here on grass and old snow. 😀

  11. TK curious your numbers for our area? I know we have a way to go but barely doing anything and no build up.

    1. That broad thick coating to 2 inches is valid for this area, but that will be maximized on any existing snow. And the 2 inches would only be reached if we have a burst in the early evening once the sun has gone to low sky or below horizon.

  12. Out at legacy place. Just not enough
    Intensity to do anything. Nuisance snow
    Is all. Trees look pretty.

    Just looked at radar. Underwhelming is all I
    Can say. Not impressive at all.

    I thought for awhile we would over acheive.
    Now dont think so. Unless something changed
    Soon aint gonna happen.

  13. Only bare surface I’ve seen with snow is the brick walkway mentioned earlier. Old snow is all covered…..lightly. It is accumulating on trees. Temp just drop two deg to 32

  14. Nearing 0.3 inch on snowcover only. Even grassy areas are having trouble keeping it. That won’t happen until the sun angle is below 45 degrees in areas that are snowing.

    Looking way out, the GFS is starting to “see” the pattern change, HOWEVER, it is likely going to take place up to a week later than the model has it timed now.

  15. Just came out of store.
    Sun disk is visible. Unless there is
    A part 2 to this she’s cooked. See ya

  16. The half inch of snow that covered the grass I got has melted.
    Now just spotty light snow.

  17. TK, what kind of pattern change do you see and when do you believe we begin to see persistent warmth of 60+?

    1. I think we put a trough from the Rockies to the West Coast for a while, but not super-amplified. It’s still going to leave us vulnerable for intrusions of chill from Canada and the unavoidable ocean breezes that will no doubt be ready to pounce this year due to the cold ocean water.

      1. So do you not see any persistent warmth in April? You mentioned a possible pattern shift to warmth sometime in April earlier this month.

        1. Yes, a warmer pattern, perhaps a pattern in which we have a 10+ day period that averages near to above normal, which relative to what we have seen would to be a warm pattern. But I do not see sustained above normal for quite a while yet.

          1. Thank you for responding. When do you see a “warmer pattern” commencing? By the end of April, we average 60 degrees so near normal to slightly above normal temps would be welcome here.

            1. Well my original thoughts got blasted to smithereens but reassessing things leads me to believe we may finally find ourselves with some idea of a ridge in the East for a while by later in May.

              It’s going to take many weeks to rid ourselves of the tendency for troughs to want to drop out of a still chilly eastern Canada, even as the large scale pattern tries to rearrange itself.

  19. Home now. Snow has taken on complete JOKE status now.
    What happened???

    Radar is breaking up. We’re done with this one.

    The only thing I can deduce and this is probably totally off base….
    I think the ocean storm out there got Stronger than modeled and in doing
    so disrupted/destroyed the nice inverted trough that was in place and delivering.
    Of course it doesn’t happen instantly and that is why the snow has been winding
    down.

    BUT likely there is a much better explanation, but I’ll throw that against
    the wall and see if it sticks.

    TK? what’s the word on that?

    Trough just moved out quicker than expected?

    Inquiring minds want/need to know.

    Many thanks

    1. Different story had all of this fallen overnight. But daytime snow in late March with temps slightly above freezing won’t cut it. Plus, as you said, the system has moved out of here faster than forecast.

      It’s very raw outside, and tomorrow won’t be a day at the beach in spite of the sun.

      Watch for black ice this evening, folks, and treacherous walkways and side streets late tonight and tomorrow morning. Be careful.

      1. Well it still would not have been much.
        Higher elevation totals were just a touch over 2 inches.

        NWS Boston ‏@NWSBoston 2h2 hours ago
        [Observed Snowfall] A few locations (higher elevations) joining the 2″ club: 2.5″ Gardner MA, 2.2″ Blue Hill, Milton MA & 2″ Lunenburg #MA.

    2. It’s doing about as expected, to be honest. It’s why I went for a coating to 2 inches with potential pockets of heavier. The heavier pockets were a long shot at best. The coatings are taking place easily but they do not sustain in daylight.

      There is still some energy and lift around for a few bands into evening, but in my opinion this was never going to become a widespread greater than 2 inch event anywhere. It would have to have taken place at night with this synoptic setup.

      1. Perhaps, but it does not appear that anyone even approaches
        the .5 to .6 qpf modeled. Forget about the snow, the qpf was not there anyway.

        Not that your forecast was a bust, because it was spot on, but
        the whole thing was a BUST in my mind, again because of
        the under achieving qpf totals.

        Frankly, I was quite disappointed. Really I was.

  20. Hmmm

    GFS, CMC and Euro all have a decent storm for 4/4. All different intensities
    and positions, but it is there.

    SNOWIEST is the GFS

    http://www.instantweathermaps.com/GFS-php/showmap-conusncep.php?run=2015032812&var=PCPPRSTMP_2m&hour=171

    So TK, what are your thoughts on that?

    Goes North and RAINS? OR can it still go South and SNOW???

    ALSO, the GFS shows something interesting on April 1st again.

    http://www.instantweathermaps.com/GFS-php/showmap-conusncep.php?run=2015032812&var=PCPPRSTMP_2m&hour=090

    1. Not really sure yet – low confidence, but initial feeling is we may end up with a string of waves that send lows on either side of us. Will have to figure that out…

  21. TK. Please see my question above when you have a moment in regards to your thoughts on warmth.

  22. Dave Epstein ‏@growingwisdom 2m2 minutes ago
    In spite of not much accumulation today, there will be a lot of black ice later tonight as temperatures fall below freezing. Sanding likely.

    Joshua, did he read your post? 😀 😆

  24. It has been snowing in all my travels today, no accumulation, it tried to earlier but that melted. This has been a very typical March snow event, there’s only another 4-5hrs then moved out. Tomorrow looks like a nice day, more rain Monday

  28. Total underachiever today, but I am good with that on March 28. A little light snow here, but the sun keeps peeking out.

  29. Statement as of 5:15 PM EDT on March 28, 2015

    … Light snow may still accumulate this evening in eastern
    Connecticut… eastern Massachusetts… and Rhode Island…

    During the day today… some higher elevation areas have
    received between 1 and 3 inches of snow… but it was mainly on
    grassy surfaces. As temperatures drop to the freezing mark and into
    the upper 20s over interior areas this evening… snow may begin to
    coat Road surfaces. Only at most an additional inch or two is
    expected before snow gradually tapers off overnight.

    Travelers should be prepared for some slippery roads and allow
    extra time to reach their destinations tonight.

    Please see our winter weather Page for more details at…
    weather.Gov/Boston/winter.

    Field

  30. Tomorrow looks like a decent day, lots of sun with temps in the low and mid 40’s, that strong sun will make it feel warmer 🙂

      1. Yup when I travel around almost everytime I go from coast to inland spots it can be a 10-15 degree difference, tis the season of the sea breeze

  33. Unbelievable with all the model posting snow accumulations the last 24 hours that Boston on has a trace of snow today so far. Under performance at its finest.

    It is late March by the way, a lot of things have to line up for accumulating snow, especially above 32.

  34. Snow Falling during daylight this time of year tough to accumulate unless it comes down real hard. If this happened during the overnight hours I belive those model predictions would have happened.

  35. Sudbury river that was near empty a year ago is very swollen through Sudbury and Wayland.

    And hopkinton had streer sweepers out the other day. Would love to know what the protocol is

  36. Its strange to look at the trees because there’s a decent coating on them, but not as much on the grass. There’s also a thick coating on the old snow as well.

  37. And I just have to say …..

    I LOVE this Spring weather ……… 34F and snow ……….. Its made me forget about winter.

  38. I think it’s quite possible that locales later this week are in the mid 50’s to possibly even to low 60’s, anyone inside 10 miles of coast get that nasty sea breeze.

  39. The snow today accumulated to half an inch where I am. It pretty much melted but has been snowing at varying intensity since 7AM this morning.
    Enjoying the Arizona Wisconsin game right now. I have Arizona and Kentucky in the next game with Kentucky winning it all. If they played like they did Thursday night against West Virginia no one will beat them.

  41. Tom I have 6 out of the 8 elite eight teams. I was tied for 57th in a pool with 176 enteries. The first day killed me going 8-8.
    I am 18 points behind the leader.

    1. I do recall that first day. Iowa St the big surprise.

      Still, nicely done and best of luck the rest of the way.

  42. 34F in Boston at 42N Latitude …..

    At Moosonnee, Canada (on the southern most shore of James Bay – 50N latitude) and Churchill, Canada (halfway up Hudson Bay on its western shore – 60N latitude) …..

    Its 36F !!!!

    Really, southeastmost Canada and New England are some of the coldest places south of the arctic circle. 🙁 🙁 🙁

  44. Ok – snow is sticking in Sherborn, ground just turned white between 6:45-7:30, not much there mind you, but with marginal temperatures everything was melting on contact all day.

  45. few more ski weekends possible for me then its bike season…. In about a month to month and a half pool will be opened .. Hopefully a bunch of 80s and 90s with lows in the 60s or 70s. 😀 .. have alot of stuff planed for this summer 😀

  46. Boston has now received 0.3″ so far for today…and still snowing as of this posting.

    Logan total snowfall to date = 110.6″ (and counting)

    CPC continues to show well below normal temps and above precip for the forseeable future through mid-April.

  47. Early thoughts for Easter Weekend?

    A. sunny & warm…60+
    B. wet & mild…50+
    C. cold & wet…40+
    D. cold & snowy…30+

    1. Combination of C and a bit of D. I wouldn’t call it “snowy” but there will be mixed precipitation. It’s miserable weather, I must say. Dismal, gray, wet, raw, followed by a day or two of reasonably nice, chilly but sunny weather followed by more gray and wet.

  49. The 2.0″ reported from Natick was listed as “Broadcast Media”

    Did some digging… this is the source of the report from Twitter:
    @NatickWeather: as of 9:28 PM, #Natick has received 2.0″ of snowfall. @WX1BOX

    NatickWeather has a website listed on their Twitter handle, but it is down.

    They do have 300+ followers, so does that qualify as broadcast media?

    Finally, they tweeted last night at 10PM that they updated their forecast for snow: @NatickWeather: *10:10 PM update* We are increasing our snowfall totals for Saturday’s snow. Expect between 2-4″ by late Saturday night. #MAwx

    1. That is just odd. Thanks for the info captain. Heading to natick to pick up some bagels. Will see

  51. 1.4 inch was my total in Woburn, 1.4 from reliable weather watcher in Stoneham just to my east, and 1.5 from a colleague in north Woburn near the highway.

  54. The Euro shows 70 as a possibility for SNE on Friday… you can dream at least 🙂 🙂

    0.3″ of snow at Logan yesterday. Just 10 or so miles away, 4.4″ atop Blue Hill. QPF for the two sites was probably very similar. All about that elevation!

  55. Just as captain reported last night, we had some cover overnight. Maybe .5 but that is just a guess as I look out window.

Comments are closed.