Back Spin

121 Comments

10:33PM

 
SUMMARY…
Broad low pressure hanging around east of New England will continue to spin spokes of moisture back into southeastern New England, preventing the significant improvement of Tuesday from continuing through midweek. And just when this system finally pulls away, another will come off the Middle Atlantic Coast. This one is expected to keep most of its precipitation offshore, but the circulation should be broad enough to create cool and cloudy weather Friday. A steady improvement is expected over the weekend as this system pulls away to the east like its predecessor. Expect lingering cloudiness Saturday which is still likely to be a cool day, and less cloudiness with milder air Sunday. Finally, a southwesterly flow should warm much of the region up by Monday, but as is usually the case at this time of year, there will be a significant modifying effect along the South Coast as a southwest wind is coming over water that it still quite cool. There may also be a fair amount of high cloudiness around on Monday. By Tuesday, there are signs of interaction of a front just to the north with a disturbance from the west, so though the forecast will be for mild air, I would not expected perfect weather.
 
SOUTHEASTERN NEW ENGLAND FORECAST…
OVERNIGHT: Partly cloudy. Lows 38-45, coolest interior valleys. Wind light N.
WEDNESDAY: Partly sunny all areas morning. Partly sunny interior and mostly cloudy coast  with possible showers in the afternoon. Highs in the 50s coast but may cool to the upper 40s during the afternoon, upper 50s to lower 60s inland. Wind N up to 10 MPH shifting to E.
WEDNESDAY NIGHT: Mostly cloudy. Risk of showers eastern coastal areas early. Lows in the 40s. Wind E 5-15 MPH.
THURSDAY: Mostly cloudy. Highs in the 50s coast, lower 60s interior. Wind NE 5-15 MPH.
FRIDAY: Cloudy. Chance of drizzle especially eastern areas. Lows 40-45. Highs 45-50 coast, 50s interior.
SATURDAY: Mostly cloudy to partly sunny. Lows 40-45. Highs in the 50s.
SUNDAY: Partly cloudy to mostly sunny. Lows in the 40s. Highs in the 60s except 50s some coastal areas.
MONDAY: Partly sunny. Lows 50-55. Highs 70-75 except 60s eastern coastal areas and 55-60 southern coastal areas.
TUESDAY: Mostly cloudy. Chance of showers. Lows 50-55. Highs 55-60 southern coastal areas, 60s elsewhere.

121 thoughts on “Back Spin”

  1. Thanks Tk 🙂 looking like yet another day in the low 60’s, this is actually below normal, like the last 3 months have been but now April it’s tolerable. Should be a high around 65 degrees for April 28th, stay warm my coastal friends 🙂

    1. I think Wednesday will stay a little cooler near the coast without the late-day jump up. You are correct, probably 60-65 interior for high temps but may end up settling back there a little bit later as well (without the nip that the coast will feel).

      We had prognosticated that the cold ocean would have a frequent impact this Spring and so far that is the case. Hard to fight the cold water. Eventually it will warm up and become less of a factor.

      I do see some warmer days early next week but I’m not convinced of perfect weather as we will have a boundary nearby as the possibility of a lot of debris cloudiness Monday and even moreso Tuesday.

  2. Thanks TK !

    That is an interesting feature the GFS has somewhere along the east coast at day 9 (hr 216).

    Wonder if that is a mid latitude low pressure area, a tropical feature, or a system with characteristics of both ?

  3. Good morning and thank you TK for the detailed update.

    Woke up to a beautiful morning. It was already 51 at home before 7AM.
    Driving into the office car thermometer was up to 56, HOWEVER, an
    OMINOUS cloud deck was very visible to the East moving in off of the ocean
    from the East and Northeast. Here it comes. Another RUINED day along
    the coast. It truly SUCKS!

    Oh and did I say it SUCKS? Sorry if I didn’t.

    1. The watch begins.
      At 8AM at the Airport, the wind was NorthWest at 8 mph with
      a temperature of 54. WITHOUT the ocean influence, this air mass
      has warmed up enough to support 65-70 this afternoon, but it AIN’T gonna
      happen near the coast.

      What is the over/under time that Logan’s wind shifts to East?
      I say BEFORE NOON, perhaps as early as 9 or 10 AM. We shall see.

        1. WRONG!!!!

          9AM Logan Obs:

          Last Updated: Apr 29 2015, 8:54 am EDT
          Wed, 29 Apr 2015 08:54:00 -0400
          Weather: Mostly Cloudy
          Temperature: 52.0 °F (11.1 °C)
          Dewpoint: 39.0 °F (3.9 °C)
          Relative Humidity: 61 %
          Wind: East at 10.4 MPH (9 KT)

  7. Felt that wind shift about 1/2 hour ago. High temps have been reached for immediate coastal areas.

  8. Still sunny here in JP but can see clouds moving in. Great in July on an oppressive day but not in April 🙂

  10. Sorry for the folks on the coast 🙁
    There’s been a lot of days this spring already where it’s in the 60’s just inland and 50 at the coast.

  11. 10 AM at the Airport

    Boston, Logan International Airport, MA
    (KBOS) 42.36056N 71.01056W
    2 Day History

    Mostly Cloudy
    51.0 °F
    Last Updated: Apr 29 2015, 9:54 am EDT
    Wed, 29 Apr 2015 09:54:00 -0400
    Weather: Mostly Cloudy
    Temperature: 51.0 °F (10.6 °C)
    Dewpoint: 39.0 °F (3.9 °C)
    Relative Humidity: 64 %
    Wind: East at 12.7 MPH (11 KT)
    Wind Chill: 46 F (8 C)
    Visibility: 10.00 miles
    MSL Pressure: 1005.4 mb
    Altimeter: 29.69 in Hg

    1. Not so light here. East wind is building.
      All flags near my office are straight out blowing in the Facuckta East Wind!!

  13. These clouds didn’t come from the east, but the north. 🙂 They are above the surface wind.

    1. Doesn’t matter, they’re still from that Bull Crap system spinning around in the ocean to the East of us. 😈 👿 😈

  14. 11AM Logan

    Temperature: 50.0 °F (10.0 °C)
    Wind: East at 11.5 MPH (10 KT)

    Going in the wrong direction!!!!

    1. There was Big Time Snow somewhere, but NOT in the City.

      Frankly, I don’t remember a thing about it.

      1. 4.1 at the airport??? WOW!!! Honestly don’t remember that
        at all. IF it was 4.1 at the airport, must have been at least
        6 if not more in JP. Why can’t I remember that one?

        I’m losing it big time!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

        I can tell you every time it snowed during 1960 and 1961 but
        can’t remember 1987? BAD! very BAD!!!

    3. I mentioned it yesterday when I said the daffodils in our yard had their “heads” showing above the foot of snow we had.

  18. I still do not like the “mostly sunny” and widespread 70s being forecast for next Tuesday. A boundary is going to be too close by. It is not going to be that simple.

    In fact it may become a downright complex situation with a front sinking southward across the region late Monday night then returning as a warm front during Tuesday only to sink back to the south again Wednesday putting us in a N-NE flow of ocean chill while JUST to the SW is 70-80.

    1. Of course. We KNOW that will happen. Why oh why would we get into
      the warmth. Even after suffering this Winter, I guess we still don’t deserve it
      for whatever reason. Bring it on! We can handle it!!

      1. I have a bad feeling that we see lots of HHH temps to more than make up for this cool spring OS. We always seem to go right from “sprinter” to summer. 🙁

      2. Because mother nature doesn’t care whether we deserve something or not. The atmosphere is nothing but a physics lab. 😉

  20. Phillips i think we will be ok this summer. I believe below average temps will prevail most of the summer. Of course we will HHH weather but majority of the time will much more pleasant.

  21. Actually supposed to have drinks tonight at a downtown outdoor bar at 6 PM. can’t see myself doing this given the temps.

  22. Awesome nice day down here today in greater philly. 77 out right now. Sunny… Ahhhhhh. Flying back home tomorrow 🙁

  23. I’ve been playing musical chairs with the light jacket today. Started out mild and sunny, turned cloudy and cool, now it’s ending sunny and mild.

  24. More and more evidence that the warmest day is Monday and that the significant warmth will last ONE DAY.

    1. What happens toward the end of the week in your opinion in terms of temps and overall pattern?

    2. I ask because while a cold front may cool us off with some rain showers on Tuesday, I’m not seeking a sharp cool down a trough pattern thereafter like the one we have seen recently. The front seems fairly progressive on Tuesday and sun appears to be back for the remainder of the weeks with temps seasonal and in the mid and upper 60s.

    1. We all do that and know that it is often small keyboard related. It is a good mind exercise to figure it out. 🙂

  26. Way out there but I need something to keep an eye on.
    18z GFS showing some CAPE and Lift Tuesday with the front.

    1. Of course, why else would there be something other than warmth and blue skies for my first night of the golf league?

  27. Next week?
    I don’t see a whole lot of sun.
    Monday starts sunny, ends cloudy with showers at night.
    Tuesday is unsettled, lots of clouds, periods of showers.
    Wednesday is either partly cloudy or overcast with a N or NE wind and very cool.
    Thursday we break out of it and warm up a bit.
    End of next week looks unsettled at least at times. Probably in and out of clouds and showers near a boundary which we could easily end up on the cool side of. The only good news is that it is so far away that my confidence that far out is on the low side.

  28. It’s important to note, we do not need an upper trough to get quite cool. It’s all about the wind direction. Any NE flow and eastern areas are significantly chilled off. It’s going to happen at least one day next week, maybe more than one.

    1. Or July…
      Or August.

      I’d be willing to bet that August & September will feature fantastic weather.

      If we end up with anomalous cool pooling above us in June / July we’re in trouble because showers/storms will erupt ever so easily. Waiting game…

        1. Not really. Sometime in May. What I’m far from convinced of now is consistency. I think we may end up a lot closer to the boundary than I thought originally. It may end up something like last Summer in fact.

  30. That would be good news for me if this summer is like last year’s with not a lot of HHH temps. 😀

  32. Good Morning, all!
    I feel like our planting season has been delayed by about 2 weeks this Spring.
    My once beautiful Hydrangeas took a big hit – branches snapped in half 🙁

  34. Excited for draft tonight but only the skins and first and second round picks. Skins haven’t had a first rounder in 3 years 🙂

    1. Good stuff Hadi.

      Parts of upper Midwest are running drier than normal too.

      Though summer, perhaps EL Nino keeps Gulf Coast wetter than normal ….. and Midwest and Northeast drier than normal. I would think that might lean us towards a warmer than normal summer.

  37. Pool water is 62 degrees, how? A pool water heater 🙂

    The pool has been used more now than the last 12 yrs, I have a pool because the kids want to play, not to look at and only use for 2 months, waste of money. Awesome stuff!! 🙂 good day everyone

  39. Good morning. Pretty chilly this morning.
    I can’t see it getting very warm along the coast today.
    We shall see.

    Eric has 78,72 and 70 for M,T,W next week. Is he being a tad optimistic??
    Time will tell.

  40. Joe Bastardi ‏@BigJoeBastardi 1h1 hour ago
    SUBTROPICAL development near south Atlantic Coast next week possibility. Would accent in close aspect of season from our ideas

    Matt Noyes ‏@MattNoyesNECN 1h1 hour ago
    Meanwhile, a magnitude 6.8 quake struck about 45 minutes ago in Papua New Guinea, but no tsunami concern in the Pacific.

  41. We definitely need the water. I wouldn’t mind a every other day thunder storm this summer. My water bill last year for my lawn would make you puke.

  42. My town has already notified us of a limited water ban that started April 1st through Oct 1st with the possibility of more regulations if drought conditions are realized

      1. We do. There’s TONS of Water out there. The local rivers, lakes and ponds are high.

        His town has a serious problem!

        1. LOL, it’s Sharon, so yea. Last year they raised our water rates by 30% and claimed it was for much needed repairs to the system and started a water ban at the same time. I have yet to see any work being done throughout the town.

          1. We’ve been there almost 2 years and to be honest we’re not happy with the town as a whole. Only reason we’re there is for the schools. Otherwise, it doesn’t have much to offer.

            1. Sorry to hear.

              I just let Mother Nature deal with my lawn or lack of it. If Mother Nature wants it green then there will be rain. If Mother Nature wants it brown, then there will be a lack of rain. 😀

  43. NWS Boston ‏@NWSBoston 39m39 minutes ago
    This morning will take a look back on an EF2 Tornado that struck Revere, MA on July 28th of last year.

    https://pbs.twimg.com/media/CD13bkIW0AE1Bl-.jpg

    Hmmm

    Not sure of their statement that the tornadic signature was not evident until
    after touch down. That particular cell had off and on rotation as it traversed across
    the SW suburbs towards the City. I have an image on my computer at home that
    shows the rotation. Some time this evening I’ll compare the time stamps.
    Perhaps it is indeed the same. I just can’t remember right now.

  44. WSI Energy Weather ‏@WSI_Energy 42s42 seconds ago
    PV-Streamer (“baroclinic”) type tropical cyclogenesis event next week over the western sub-tropical Atlantic?

  45. Charlie, in Chicago today and tomorrow on business and guess what’s here! The NFL Draft. There were open seats on the plane this morning surprised I didn’t see you 🙂

  46. I remember we were tracking that storm that morning back in July that eventually produced that tornado in Revere.
    Hopefully we won’t have any tornadic thunderstorms in SNE this year.

  47. Not sold on this from NWS out of Taunton for Sunday but keep an eye on it.
    BY SUNDAY THE SURFACE TROUGH
    MIGRATES NORTHEAST INTO SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND WHILE A SHORTWAVE
    PASSES OVERHEAD. CONVECTIVE INDICES OVER SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND SHOW
    TOTALS IN THE LOW 50S AND MODEL CAPE 1000-1500 J/KG. THERE ARE
    DIFFERENCES IN GEOGRAPHY WITH THE GFS FAVORING WESTERN SECTIONS
    WHILE THE ECMWF FAVORS THE MERRIMACK VALLEY AND CENTRAL HILLS.

    1. TT Index (total totals)
      56 Scattered severe storms

      NOT gonna happen in coastal sections for sure. Perhaps in Western sections.

  48. Latest guidance, and of course this could change, continues to show warmer weather and fair skies sunday into monday with temps moderating from near 70 on sunday to 74-78 on Monday. Even most of Tuesday is looking mostly sunny to start with partly/mostly cloudy skies by afternoon was a cold front approaches with showers/t’storms at night. This front appears progressive so cooler and drier air with temps in in the middle and upper 60s returns Wednesday and Thursday. I look forward to TKs thoughts this afternoon.

  49. 12z GFS showing very little if any CAPE (Convective Available Potential Energy) with the front on Tuesday. Still time to watch but looks to be showers with maybe a rumble or two of thunder on Tuesday.

    1. And it doesn’t appear to cross the area until evening at the earliest so most of Tuesday remains nice.

  51. It’s funny. Even in the heart of winter, 45-50 degrees is not all that uncommon. We will be fortunate to reach 50 tomorrow on May 1st.

    1. I can buy 53 for metrowest but NOT for the city of Boston. I believe Boston will be stuck around 48-49 with that NE wind IMHO.

    1. Euro sure had this storm for today/tomorrow correct long ago while
      the GFS had us getting a soaking 2 inches of rain from it with a direct hit!!!. Took several days for the GFS to come on board with the Euro. 😀

    1. He is quite optimistic about next week. This is what he posted on Facebook:

      “Currently salivating at the forecast ahead. Right now, it’s looking like low 60s Saturday, near 70 Sunday, upper 70s to near 80 Monday, and plenty more 70s later next week. Get ready for trees and flowers to explode.”

      1. Hope he is correct. We shall see. Given that we are New England
        and that COLD ocean is sitting there, I’d say there is ample
        opportunity for that to get squashed. 😈

        1. I’m hesitant to say this but the latest guidance suggests what Eric is stating. Yet, we must remain vigilant. This could certainly change.

  57. There are parts of SNE that will begin a week plus run of consecutive of days at 70 or above on Saturday. CT River Valley will be near or just above 70 on Saturday, further east will get that warm on Sunday.

    1. Are you concerned about a boundary sinking southward into SNE as early as Monday night or early Tuesday and possibly ending up south of here on Wednesday before returning Thursday? I am.

  58. I think the weather will not live up to expectations next week, but it will have its very nice moments despite this.

    New blog posted!

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