Many Areas May Be Dry For A Week

101 Comments

5:00PM

No. Not everyone is going to get severe storms tomorrow. I’m betting very few, if any areas, see it. Thunderstorms? Sure, they are possible. Big ones? Maybe…if you live many miles north & west of Boston. I just don’t feel that the Boston area is going to see much of anything out of this storm threat for Wednesday. Not unstable enough. Not the right wind direction long enough. Not cold enough above us at the right time. Too many things are not coming together so I’m going to downplay it. Either way, keep an eye out tomorrow, in case, because Mother Nature has the final say, and she likes surprises.

Otherwise, I think the overall pattern is generally a dry one with variable temperatures during the next 5 to 7 days. A few disturbances may pass by, with brief shower threats here and there. But I just don’t see any widespread rain right now. Of course, if things start to look different, I’ll let you know. 🙂 For now, onto the forecast for the Boston area and its nearby neighbors…

TONIGHT: Partly cloudy. Low 55 to 60. Wind SE up to 10 mph.

WEDNESDAY: Partly sunny. Scattered showers and thunderstorms between 2PM and 8PM from northwest to southeast – the greatest chance of heavier thunderstorms being west and north of Route 495 through 5PM with showers and storms likely to weaken as they enter Metro Boston late day. Some areas may not see any showers or storms at all. High 80 to 85 except 70s immediate shoreline.  Wind S to SW 10 to 20 mph with higher gusts.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT: Partly cloudy to mostly clear. Low 52 to 57. Wind NW 10 to 15 mph.

THURSDAY: Mostly to partly sunny (fair weather clouds may become abundant in the afternoon). High 73 to 78. Wind W 10 to 20 mph.

THURSDAY NIGHT: Variably to partly cloudy. Low 50 to 55. Wind NW 10 to 20 mph and gusty.

FRIDAY: Sunny to partly cloudy. High 68 to 73. Wind NW to N 10 to 20 mph.

SATURDAY: Mostly sunny. Low 56. High 78.

SUNDAY: Mostly cloudy with isolated showers and thunderstorms in the morning, then mostly sunny. Low 59. High 77.

MONDAY: Mostly sunny. Low 55. High 79.

TUESDAY: Partly sunny. Low 59. High 81.

101 thoughts on “Many Areas May Be Dry For A Week”

  1. Thanks TK – I love that you are keeping the good forecast for Saturday – so does my daughter in hopes this year my grandson’s party can be outside!!!

  2. I looked up some climatological info on the city of Vancouver and it’s very surprising to me to say the least. The average snowfall for an entire winter is 19.0″, the greatest snowfall was 95.5″ during the 1970-71 season, the greatest snowfall for Vancouver in one storm was 24.0″ on Jan. 15, 1971. During the winter, average high temps are mid-40’s and average lows near 32. The lowest temp recorded in Vancouver is 0 degrees in December and January…I don’t know the year.

    As for the summers, the average high is 71 and the highest temp recorded in Vancouver was 94 degrees in July 2009. There are also very few thunderstorms.

    During the 2010 Winter Olympics, I assumed the reason for lack of snow was just an unusual weather pattern that occured at the “wrong” time. I am surprised that Vancouver was even awarded the Olympics given that small amounts of snowfall is quite normal.

  4. I believe the cap will disappear just in time, also the Boston area is anything east of Worcester and north of Providence and south of Manchester, maybe 20 or 30 yrs ago it was 128, now it’s 495 and beyond is Boston area, and i95 from Boston to Providence is the Boston/providence corridor, just wanted to let u know what there called now as supposed to 20 yrs ago, have a great day everyone 🙂

  5. Some thunder to the north of Framingham and a friend in Southbridge said she had just heard some in the distance.

  6. Wow……I was looking out at the sky in Marshfield, looking at some of the towering cumulus clouds building, thinking there may be a shower popping around this area. Then, I went to the NWS radar and saw the storms quickly firing in the Merrimack Valley region. Looks like an interesting morning for sure. Have a good day everyone !!

  7. Also, the area of thunderstorms that has moved west southwest over the Atlantic Ocean, and is now, just northeast of the Southeast US coastline has been interesting to watch the last day and a half.

  8. Some thunderstorm activity already popping it and I would expect some downpours and lightning with that. This is not the cold front coming through and I expect another round of showers and thunderstorms today along with a severe thunderstorm watch posted for parts of SNE. I don’t expect a widespread severe weather outbreak which is why I am only giving a 2 instead of a 3 but as always I’ll keep an eye on it. Nice weather returns tomorrow and last a few days!

    1. That smallish cell I mentioned north of Framingham a bit ago has grown to quite a line and a warning just came out for the north shore. Towering cumulus clouds to our north as well. Fascinating.

  9. I hope everyone had a great wknd. It has been thundering for the past 15 mins. or so in Sudbury. Has been dark to the north and has gotten dark here. Just starting to rain here. There is a Severe Thunderstorm Warning out to the north of here – the Lowell area into Essex county. But there looks to be some rain to the south of here. Looks like it will be an interesting day. One thing – the sky is beautiful – patches of blue, towering cumulous in shades of grays and white.

    1. Hi Rainshine – my grandson and I were just sitting in the window looking at the “thunder” clouds. GREAT sky! We also got a gusty cool wind before the cell went by (to our north) and now the air is quiet and really humid.

      1. Hi, Vicki – We just got a few drops of rain – so far. But I think most of the rain is north of us. Yes – it is a beautiful sky! This is one part of the summer that I love. The sky during storms, especially when there is some patches of blue sky which set off the storm clouds. I think your grandson is setting up to be a meteorologist! 🙂

        My name on the blog, rainshine is a name I created because sometimes when you get a thunderstorm and the sun comes out and it is still raining everything seems to sparkle. Not the case this morning, ‘though. Been thinking of putting my real name here but once in a great while I go onto the WBZ blog and I don’t want to put my real name there.

        1. I post on the BZ blog under a different name and agree it’s not necessarily a good place to use your real name. I always liked the name rainshine and now that I know the reason like it even more.

          My husband said there’s a lot of thunder in Watertown.

  11. This is part of this warm air avection coming through. There were some severe thunderstorm warnings with this line earlier in Upstate NY now some warnings have popped up again. Watch out again later today for more thunderstorm activity with lightning, strong winds, and hail. I just read the SPC and not to scare anyone but a 5% chance for a tornado in New England today. If one were to happen it would be isolated and weak.

    1. JJ – thanks for the update – and it’s far better to know there is a chance even at 5% of a tornado than not know so an extra thank you for the info.

    2. JJ, thanks for your blog. We always want to know what’s going on in the weather, even if it might be scary. Some storms are firing up in Western NY now – is that where the actual cold front is now?

      1. The storms firing in western NY is part of the cold front. Looking at the satellite there is plenty of clear skies out
        ahead of that for the area to develop. Dew Points also creeping up and those are two key to get thunderstorms to
        build up. Will keep an eye on that area and see what happens to it as the day progresses.

  12. So my very unscientific rain prediction technique is to kill a spider. My husband is descended from Robert the Bruce who of course studied the spider making a web and mirrored its determination to help get him out of captivity and aid Scotland. I was always told not to kill a spider by my husband or it will rain. So far we’ve had two giant ones in the house today and although I typically don’t kill them they were too nasty to let go. We’ll see how that works for weather today 😀

  13. Severe thunderstorm watch up for far western parts of SNE until 5:00 pm. I don’t think this will be the only severe thunderstorm watch box we see today.

  14. JJ,

    The Weather Channel’s Dr. Forbes Tor-Con index for all of MA is 2-3, which is supposed to mean a 20-30% chance of a tornado within 50 miles of any location.

    What is your opinion of his index?

    Curious.

    Many thanks

  15. Regarding the Tor-Con index, would an index of 2-3 warrant a tornado watch?
    And if not, what index would? Tk, what are your thoughts on this index?

    Many thanks

  16. Latest from the NWS at 10:51 AM:

    …THREAT OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS MOST OF THE REGION THIS
    AFTERNOON AND EVENING

    A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM NEW YORK STATE THIS AFTERNOON. THERE
    WILL BE A LOW PROBABILITY OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPING
    ACROSS THE REGION EXCEPT FOR CAPE COD AND THE ISLANDS.
    THUNDERSTORMS WILL APPROACH SOUTHWEST NEW HAMPSHIRE AND WESTERN
    MASSACHUSETTS BY 1 TO 2 PM…THEN WILL PUSH EASTWARD THROUGH THE
    REST OF THE AFTERNOON…REACHING THE BOSTON TO PROVIDENCE CORRIDOR
    BY 4 TO 5 PM.

  17. Wind is currently due South in the Boston Area. Unless that changes to at least SW,
    I think our chances of severe T-storms are just about zilch. Just mho.

    JJ, Tk your thoughts?

    1. Hi Old Salty – I was thinking about you this morning. If I’m not mistaken you are the one who gave the heads up to the tornado warnings that went out a few times last summer before the TV mets. I had noticed the wind which is a good solid breeze is out of the south in Framingham as well.

  18. 1st post from new phone. Blew the fcst this morning. Will explain later. Thanks for the updates JJ … keep them coming.

  19. This morning there was one big boom of thunder, followed by a few distant rumbles and the sky darkened somewhat, but no rain here in Boston (Dorchester). I suspect from Downtown Boston northward had the more typical thunderstorm activity with lightning and rain?

  20. I copied this quickly – I believe there are tornado watches out north of here also

    Tornado Watch:

    Issued at: 12:58 PM EDT 6/1/11, expires at: 8:00 PM EDT 6/1/11

    The NWS Has Issued Tornado Watch 411 In, Effect Until 8 Pm Edt This Evening For The Following Areas
    In Connecticut This Watch Includes 3 Counties
    In Northern Connecticut
    Hartford, Tolland, Windham
    In Massachusetts This Watch Includes 8 Counties
    In Central Massachusetts
    Worcester
    In Eastern Massachusetts
    Middlesex, Norfolk, Suffolk
    In Northeastern Massachusetts
    Essex
    In Western Massachusetts
    Franklin, Hampden, Hampshire
    In New Hampshire This Watch Includes 2 Counties
    In Southern New Hampshire
    Cheshire, Hillsborough
    In Rhode Island This Watch Includes 2 Counties
    In Central Rhode Island
    Kent
    In Northern Rhode Island
    Providence
    This Includes The Cities Of, Boston, Fitchburg, Foxboro,, Framingham, Gloucester, Greenfield, Hartford, Keene,, Lawrence, Lowell, Manchester, Nashua, Northampton,, Providence, Putnam, Quincy, Springfield, Union, Vernon,, Warwick, Willimantic And Worcester.

  21. Just saw Tornado Watch up for a good part of SNE. I think the biggest threat for severe weather will be across the interior and I am keeping an eye there because if it looks like a widespread severe weather threat will happen a 3 will be needed. For now I am keeping it at a 2.
    Areas under the tornado watch I don’t expect strong tornadoes or widespread but I would not rule out a isolated weak tornado to spin up.

  22. Tornado watch for my area, clearly the NWS included my area by mistake…
    It will be interesting to see if any tornados do spin up in Mass.

  23. Vikki, Thanks for the kind words.

    JJ, I agree with you. I also think that the main threat will be inland, the farther inland, the greater the threat. That South wind can really knock down a T-storm, however, I must say it is really humid out there, so who knows.

    There must be a reason that the Severe Storms Prediction Center extended the watch all the way to the coast. They must be looking at something, else they would have truncated the watch before the coast. And Dr. Gregg Forbes appears to know his stuff and I would guess he issued a Tor:Con index of 2-3 with good reason.

    I think we just need to monitor the situation and not get alarmed. If Forbes had issued an 8 or 9, I might get alarmed.

    Have a great day all.

    1. You are welcome 🙂

      The wind in Framingham seems to be more south/southwest now with the flag next door blowing from the west on occasion.

    2. I saw Scott’s post and then your comment Old Salty about the coast. Is it rare to have a tornado near the coast?

  24. Thanks Vicki for the update! I would say that Suffolk County which includes the Greater Boston Area and its immediate surroundings have nothing to worry about as far as tornado activity “per se”. I have never heard of a tornado actually touching down or even forming within Boston’s city limits. However, I am wondering if a tornado watch near the coast is mostly to give a “heads up” regarding severe thunderstorm activity (very strong winds, etc.) than anything else.

  25. Re: Tornadoes Near The Coast

    I would say it is rare. It can happen for sure. I witnessed one back in the 70s that
    went through parts of Newton (Chestnut Hill) and Brookline. That’s within 10
    miles of the coast. It sure takes the exact right circumstances.

    Let’s hope that nothing severe develops. A Garden variety T-storm would do just fine.

    1. Thanks Old Salty and Philip. Wow I don’t remember the one in Newton/Brookline. Could it be too that there have been so many tornadoes that have hit populated areas this year that TWC doesn’t want to take the change of not having people be at least a bit aware? Just guessing here.

      I love thunderstorms but tornadoes make me very nervous. I agree that a few run of the mill T-storms are all I’d like to see.

        1. I remember one back back in the early 80’s that travelled down along the Ipswich river right out to the ocean… I saw the damage a few days later, trees, boats over turned, one aluminum boat twisted up like tin foil…

  26. I would have just issued a severe thunderstorm watch over the coastal sections, even out to 495. The dew points are sure high enough, but we don’t have very cold air aloft, and strong upper level winds. Also the water would also have an impact.
    I would like to see hail, as my area rarely sees it. Theres also that chance that the storms completely die out before they make it to the coast, havnt had much sun today either.

  27. I think back in the summer of 2008 there was at least one tornado along the RI coast – and I also think in the recent past few years there were some tornadoes along the CT coast, too. I also recall some tornado back in the 70’s in Brookline, MA.

    Old Salty – I agree with you on the south wind. We have a good southerly wind now – and in the past, I thought that once any severe weather got past Worcester and the winds came off the south coast it would diminish the severity of storms as they headed east – especially this early in the season as the waters are still rather cool. Now if the winds veer more westerly, that could change things. Also, maybe there are more factors involved to keep the severity at a higher level.

  28. Were there any tornadoes confirmed last year in MA or were they north of here? I also remember last year that there was an even in Brighton/Brookline but they thought it was straightline winds although a person watching it said it was circular. I’d forgotten that until a few minutes ago. The destruction was a block from my son’s apartment.

  29. I may be all wet, but there is a potent storm on the NY/VT border that “appears”
    to be developing a “Hook” echo? Anyone else see that?

    Those storms out west look really strong. When they are that strong to the west,
    they rarely hold together marching Eastward. For severe weather in Eastern sections, the severe storms need to develop nearly overhead or just to the west.
    Of course this still “could” happen later. We’ll just have to wait and see.

  30. Old Salty, I don’t recall the Newton/Brookline tornado back in the 70’s but if you actually witnessed it, then that’s good enough for me. I would have been in my teens at the time. The closest that came to mind was the 1953 Worcester Tornado that made it as far east as Southborough then fizzled out near Framingham.

    I guess it remains to be seen if Boston actually sees a tornado some day given the right circumstances. Hope it never happens, but I suspect “downdrafts” could occur anywhere during a severe thunderstorm.

  31. Vickie,

    I remember that one last year. I do believe it was straight line winds. I do not believe that the NWS ever declared that it was a tornado.

    Interesting afternoon, eh?

    1. Thanks Old Salty. Getting cloudy here for the first time since early morning. Winds are definitely still from the south even though they seemed shifted for a bit. I love that we can have a discussion here without someone saying we are hoping for bad storms or tornadoes or any of that. The discussion is darn near as interesting as the event and of course no one wants destruction.

  33. I’m sorry that I’m asking so many questions but one more then I’ll try to stop 🙂 I was looking at the radar and it seems the storms that are just coming into MA from NY are traveling slightly NE as opposed to due east. Do the winds from the south cause that? If they continue it looked to me as if most will miss the southern and even middle part of MA and head more to the north shore and other points north.

    All that said I have no idea what I’m looking at but love to learn about it. Thanks so much.

  34. JJ,
    On radar, those storms look vicious!

    I’m still guessing they’ll weaken on the trek Eastward, “unless” new fresh storms
    develop overhead or just to the West. That is what we need to watch.

  35. Just clicking on the SPC site and notice a couple tornado warnings in New Hampshire and this to me was the reason issuing the tornado watch that some of these storms could rotate.

  36. Vickie,

    The storms are moving in response to winds in the upper atmosphere.
    At 500 MB and 300 MB they are just slightly South of West, thus the storms
    are moving A little bit North of due East or even ENEward.

    That is probably one reason why there is a tornado watch. The winds are South at the surface and almost due West (Just South of West) aloft, thus we “Could” get some rotation. That is also why the threat is greater to our West where the South wind won’t have as much marine influence.

    Just my take.

  37. JJ,

    I see those as well. Coos County in Northern NH and Cheshire County in SW NH, near the City of Keene. This is getting dicey. We need to continue to watch carefully.

  38. Right now Massachusetts north is where the severe weather is. There in nothing currently to the west of New England or in CT that is being warned on.
    Greg Forbes now says a 4 out 10 chance for a tornado in New England.

  39. JJ,

    I wonder why he increased those since this mornin? That is a bit scary.

    Here are some of them:

    CT – 3 to 4
    DC – 3 to 4
    DE – 3
    KS west – 4
    KS east – 2
    MA – 3 to 4
    MD – 3
    ME – 3 to 4
    MO southwest – 2
    NC west, north-central – 2
    NE southwest – 4
    NH – 3

    Some storms are popping in CT, even if not warning level. “Could” be a sign???

  40. Cheshire tornado warning just expired but JR on WHDH was talking to the Keene fire chief who said they were having golf ball sized hail as he spoke.

  41. I caught it quickly when he came on at 3 and he said more shear in than he expected and also the storms are not forming in a line but rather individual super cells.

  42. Sorry,

    I’m at it again. Looking at the latest doppler radar, it now appears that
    the storms are beginning to move straight East to West or even a bit South of
    East. Meaning of course that there is more wind shear with altitude, which
    could translate into more rotating thunderstorms and tornados, especially to
    the North and West.

    Stay tuned

  43. JJ,

    That makes perfect sense. This is a more dangerous situation than originally
    thought. I still think that Eastern sections will be spared, but we can’t let our
    guard down, just in case. Those storms look really bad.

  45. New tornado warning for that area. you mentioned
    UPDATED THUNDERSTORM INDEX SEVERE LEVEL ACTIVITY. Did not think it would get this bad.

  46. Pete B is saying he’s seeing something that brings a number to 50 which may mean the tornado is either on the ground or close to western edge of northhampton –

  47. I wish I had a chance to read the great conversation above, but I dont 🙂 Anyhow, the wind is almost due south in Marshfield and outside of it being muggy, the breeze is only mild, I’m guessing mid-upper 70s. Hope everyone’s community gets through without any significant issues.

  48. Vickie,

    He must be talking about + and – dbz a reading of how strong the echo is
    coming towards and moving away from the radar. If there is a postive 50 and
    a negative 50, that would all be all but a certainty that there was a tornado on
    the ground. The NWS uses this radar signature to issue the tornado warnings.
    The higher those numbers, the greater the chance for a tornado.

    Does this make sense?

    Still active out there.

    1. It does I didn’t remember that’s what he called it but I do remember him saying the same thing about the certainty that it was either on the ground or darn near on the ground.

      Sky getting darker to the north of Framingham now

  49. A bunch of tornado warnings up for the state of Maine.

    New storms popping in Central Ct. Still very active out there.
    No signs of anything weakening just yet.

    Still watching

  50. Regarding the Southerly Winds.
    I just took a look at some of the latest bouy readings.
    South of Montauk, LI, the water temp is 61 F and between
    Martha’s Vineyard and Nantucket it is 65.

    Givent that the Boston area is some 60-70 miles as the crow files from
    that water and given that is is so humid, I wonder if it won’t weaken?
    I remember a number of years ago where Boston, especially the SW parts
    of the city, got a humdinger of a T-storm fueled by a wicked SE seabreeze.
    It can happen, under the right conditions. Not saying we have the right
    conditions, jsut saying it can happen.

    Still watching for weakening.

  53. Ok, I am going to say it. I have been watching the radar all day. I had to be sure,
    but I’d say the storms now “appear” to be weakening some. Will any fare up as
    the system gets closer? Who knows. Just saying that the ones currently out there
    seem to be getting a bit less strong.

  55. One storm I was watching had cloud tops to 46,000 feet, now is down to
    39,000 feet. Still a big storm, but not quite like it used to be.

  56. Yikes,

    2 NEW tornado warnings for MA. One near Springfield and one near
    the Brookfields. One storm to 48,000 feet and the other to 44,000 feet.

    Just when you let your guard down!

  57. A confirmed tornado by law enforcement in Westfield

    Big lightning strikes north of here toward Sudbury – I’ll be shutting down computer soon

  58. A confirmed report! I wonder what the total will be for the day?
    This is the most tornado warnings I have ever seen for this state in one day.

    Everything seems to be consolidating into a couple of big storms. Most others
    have weakened and some have disappeared. I don’t think they will make it to
    the coast. Perhaps wishful thinking, but all my experience says they will.
    Let’s hope so.

  59. Sky now gettting ominous here in Boston. I suspect 5:30 pm the city itself will become affected probably in a “weakened” state…relatively speaking.

    I am now also curious if areas just south of Boston might end up being more under the gun…we will see what happens. I am thinking of that Springfield cell.

  60. That cell now East of Springfield is NASTY and it sports a very well defined HOOK ECHO!! On the dopplar the echos are purple with cloud tops at 40,000 feet and
    2.75 inch hail! A monster. A hopeful sign: Awhile ago cloud tops were at 44,000 feet.

  61. The conditions came together for these storms to fire and I had a feeling we were going to have severe weather. I did not think it was going to be like this.

  62. Ch 7 having constant coverage. Prob other channel too. Ham radio operator reported one in Springfield. Huge hook on cell Palmer area

  64. Sky now quite dark in Boston with some rumbles. Also a woman was struck by lightning in western MA!

  65. New vortex signature on doppler just East of the Quabbin (SP?).

    Another vortex sig with the same storm with the reported Westfield Tornado. This one is just NW of Sturbridge.

    It looks like we have 2 large mesocyclones left. We shall see.

  66. The Vortex signature near Quabban is now gone. The other still exists.

    Storm activity proceeds Eastward, and then seems to poof out between I190
    and I495. Still don’t think they’ll make the coast.

  67. Just read the discussion on the warning on that and they said it was strengthening so I would not be surprised if that gets upgraded to a tornado warning. Currently this has a severe thunderstorm warning.
    I just caught the picture of the tornado from Springfield and this is the first time I remember seeing a tornado here in New England in a while.

  68. Now a severe thunderstorm warning in Springfield where they were already hit hard today and that looks to show some signs of rotation.

  69. more warnings in westfield springfield with people trapped in a house(s) in springfield. This is beyond belief for MA – at least in my 62 year memory

  70. quiet in framingham for a minute but hear thunder in the distance again I hope everyone is safe

  72. Amazing, amazing weather day. I never would have thought a day would occur where the weather channel would have to have Dr. Greg Forbes and company analyzing supercell tornadic thunderstorms taking place in Massachusetts for hours on end.

  73. Tom we just had all the elements come together and it just proves we can get tornadoes here in New England if all the ingredients are there.

    1. Hi JJ.

      You are absolutely correct…….I’m also amazed at the current intensity of the storms now…..at 8 pm !!!

  74. TK for some reason my phone is not recognized on you blog. I’m waiting moderation. Tomorrow when this is over if you’d mind approving it I’d sure appreciate it. Thanks so much

  75. Tornado Watch up until 11 now for parts of SNE. The last check I see no tornado warnings only severe thunderstorm warnings. As I said earlier I did not see this coming. I expected an isolated severe weather threat not tornado reports. If I thought that was going to happen I would have gone all out an issued a level 4 which is Extreme on the 1-4 thunderstorm index.

  76. Talk about adding insult to injury now a severe thunderstorm warning over the Springfield area which was already hit by a tornado.

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