The Three Fives

67 Comments

9:30PM

NOTE…
If you tend to just read the most recent post, be aware that there were two posts made Monday evening. Don’t miss the post containing the outlook for Summer!

ANNOUNCEMENT…
Starting on Monday June 1, I’m going to introduce a slight change to the blog format. There will be a daily (or almost daily) forecast post which will have a discussion about current and upcoming weather, a detailed forecast for days 1 through 5, an outlook with less detail but an overall idea of what to expect during days 6 through 10, and a very brief look ahead about what the expected pattern may result in for days 11 through 15. This is a format I am familiar with and worked with for many years, and I’m going to give it a try here. So these forecasts will be delivered in 3 groups of 5 days, with obviously the most focus being on the first 5 days. This format change will be seen only in how the text is arranged. No other changes are coming in the near-term.

SUMMARY…
A warm front is pushing across southern New England and will introduce a Summer preview for the next few days with a warm and more humid southwesterly flow. A narrow area of unstable air will work into southwestern New England early Tuesday and may reach areas further east later in the day. This will result in some spotty pop up showers and possible thunderstorms. Widespread activity is not likely. This area of instability will shift a little further northwest by Wednesday, resulting in the greatest chance of showers and thunderstorms being over western and northern New England, leaving southeastern areas with much less of a chance to see anything. By Thursday, a weak cold front will try to push into the region, increasing the risk for showers and thunderstorms, though I still don’t feel that widespread activity is likely. A break in the action is expected Friday as narrow high pressure arrives, but this may give way to another front on Saturday with a return of a shower and thunderstorm threat. A bit more of a battle may set up Sunday and Monday as May ends and June begins with high pressure from the north trying to battle more humid air to the south. It remains to be seen how this plays out exactly, other than increasing the chance for unsettled weather which will be reflected in a lower confidence forecast below.

SOUTHEASTERN NEW ENGLAND FORECAST…
TONIGHT: Mostly cloudy. A few areas of very light to light rain mainly before midnight. Lows in the middle 50s to lower 60s. Wind SW 5-15 MPH.
TUESDAY: Variably cloudy. Isolated showers and thunderstorms in the afternoon and early evening, especially northern MA and southern NH. Highs upper 60s to middle 70s South Coast, upper 70s to middle 80s elsewhere. More humid. Wind SW 10-20 MPH.
TUESDAY NIGHT: Partly cloudy. Patchy fog late. Humid. Lows in the 60s. Wind SW 5-15 MPH.
WEDNESDAY: Partly cloudy to mostly sunny. Isolated showers or thunderstorms possible north central MA and southwestern NH late. Highs in the 70s South Coast, 80s to near 90 elsewhere. Wind SW 10-20 MPH.
THURSDAY: Mostly cloudy. Chance of showers and thunderstorms. Lows in the 60s. Highs in the 70s.
FRIDAY: Partly sunny. Lows upper 50s to lower 60s. Highs upper 60s to middle 70s, coolest South Coast.
SATURDAY: Variably cloudy. Chance of showers and thunderstorms. Lows in the 60s. Highs in the 70s.
SUNDAY: Mostly cloudy. Showers likely. Lows 55-60. Highs in the 60s.
MONDAY: Mostly cloudy. Chance of showers. Lows in the 50s. Highs in the 60s.

67 thoughts on “The Three Fives”

  1. Thanks TK. A new format is fun. Thanks for the explanation and the time you spend making this blog great

    That said, I hear a very few rain drops on the window pane

    1. And I see nothing on radar …or is mine not working…and yet hear rain. It smells like spring showers.

  2. On travel channel they are covering 1900 Galveston hurricane. Worst in history they said It is into it. Mac just came and got me to watch.

    1. I recommend the book on this storm. It is called Isaac’s Storm and gives great insight into the early US Weather system– and its failure. A great read.

  3. I loved how it sprinkled very lightly when it was humid and warm out. Not enough sprinkles to interfere with BBQ though 😉

  4. A comment on the severe weather in the southern Plains recently: Yes it has been active, but this is coming on the heels of 3 very quiet years. One would expect severe weather during the heart of severe weather season. The season peaks from April to early June in that part of the country. Right in it now. With a mean trough in the Southwest, that is the pattern that brings the bigger outbreaks, or more frequent storms at least.

    If you want an example of an anomalous season that really stands out, going back 62 years to 1953 is probably your best bet.

  7. Good luck with the new format TK !

    Dewpoints still under 60F and with the breeze, quite pleasant out there.

  8. I was watching the coverage of the flooding/storms in Texas. It is behind comprehension.

  9. Good morning and many thanks TK. I look forward to the new format. I always like to know what’s on your mind for future weather. I love the idea that you’re going to give a nice look ahead. 😀

    Nice day so far. Hope it doesn’t get too humid or too warm. 83 or 84 would do nicely.
    NO STINKEN 90s, PLEEEEEEEZE!

    Looking forward to today’s flyover. I’ll be in the Fenway area shortly after Noon.
    I am hoping to see it. Will try to snap a photo “should” I be so lucky, but I am
    a terrible photographer and will probably catch nothing but sky.

    Current Logan Dew Point = 56.
    So far so good, but I suspect it will creep up during the day.

    Buoys are currently 52.9 (Boston) and 50.2 (Stellwagen)

    Need to get some upward movement there!

    1. Thanks OS. I saw it on the news. They are saying it was a water spout that turned into a tornado when it came onshore. I was going to ask the accuracy of that comment. IIRC this is the second time in maybe a year or less that a water spout has come on shore and done damage. I believe some here (I apologize for not remembering who) gave a good discussion of that event.

      Or I could be making up the entire memory…..I have been known to do that 🙂

          1. Some how I am thinking it was a beach near LA?
            Ventura? or some such place.
            but I may be stretching my memory. 😀

    1. Sticky, but not gross yet.

      Friday looks like the pick of the week. Downhill after that, but we need the rain.

  13. Thanks TK! Wish I was working in the Boston area to catch a glimpse of the Blue Angels. Years ago I lived near the South Weymouth Air Station and it was always a thrill when they were in town. Having an up front seat to watch them practice and perform was a nice little treat as a kid.

    1. Sue, as a child I lived in Holbrook and I heard and saw jets a lot. I think the neighbor who lived next to us then worked at the South Weymouth Air Station. Then, years later, my husband and I lived in South Weymouth and we saw them practice and perform, too. It was spectacular!

      1. It really was a great experience Rainshine. Even just the regular weekend warrior training flights were fun to watch. Although as I entered into my high school years I really liked to sleep late and sometimes that wasn’t an option with all of the noise. 🙂

  14. Thanks TK. Kind of overcast out there, it’s actually making it a little more pleasant though, it’d be getting pretty warm/sticky if the Sun was out.

    NAM is showing essentially no precip for our area through Friday. The drought rolls on…

    1. Our lawn care service stopped by this am. They are making the rounds to remind folks to water. Several of our friends who always used lawn care services have chosen not to. Water is too expensive. Figures, we opted for first time in years to use one. I think we have it backwards 🙂

  15. Sun is out brightly in Sudbury and getting warmer and more humid, ‘though not that bad yet. Doppler radar shows some showers out in West. MA moving east. I wonder if they’ll make it beyond Worcester.

  16. That seems like, with the exception of a few “cool days” here and there due to east winds, a fairly warm run of the GFS once again.

    Twice, a high passes north cooling us off and both times, the high eventually during a couple day periods moves to a position where the winds are back to S and SW.

  17. Caught the Blue Angels three (3) times, once when I got in my car at 11:50 and saw them zipping across the city towards the Harbor and then twice when I parked my car on
    the lower end of Newbury St. near Mass Ave. Once flying SW to NE over Fenway and then a few minutes later flying over Fenway again from NE to SW. Awesome!

    Took me by surprise and it was so fast, I never had a chance to pull out my phone
    and snap a photo.

    I counted 7 planes. Supposedly there were 6 in formation and one taking photos.
    Sure looked like all 7 were in formation and they were really moving, much faster
    than any commercial air liner passing over head.

  18. Thanks TK for your Summer Outlook! It appears similar to last summer except more hotter episodes. For the most part it was mostly cool but at the same time no where near 2009. 🙂

    TK – You mentioned in the previous blog that El Nino could last into at least part of the winter. What would THAT mean for the upcoming winter for us in general terms? I have given up trying to figure out the differences between El Nino, La Nina, etc. patterns. Frankly I have no idea to this day what the pattern was that brought us 110″+ of snow. You might as well answer that as well…Thanks in advance. 😀

    1. 110″ = “Snowy Pattern”. 😀

      And while we are at, it virtually all came with a positive to neutral NAO
      at best. 😆 😆

      Go figure.

      1. It is soooo confusing all these patterns. I always thought snowy winters were the result of a -NAO. Back to the drawing board. 😉

        1. Exactly. That’s why I said, go figure.
          I still can’t believe the amount of snow dumped on us
          this past Winter. Not sure I’ll ever get over that one, as much as I like snow it was insane!!

          1. The law of averages would say well below normal snows for next winter, but does Mother Nature go along? I wouldn’t bet my house on it. 😉

    1. Oh yeah, you can feel it now for sure.

      Not impressed with ANY of the instability parameters for Eastern Sections.
      Perhaps in Western sections, but here? No way baby!

  20. I feel the difference here compared to yesterday in terms of the comfort level. Nothing oppressive but you start to feel the humidity a little bit.

  21. Philip I got out and enjoyed Saturday and said were not going to have a day with sunny clear blue skies and crisp conditions until September October.

  22. Wow, did these temps take off the last few hours once that shield of high cloudiness passed by.

      1. They all Suck. From watching them, CMC seems to be most aggressive as is the NAM sometimes while the GFS lags behind.
        Euro somewhere in the middle. Of course they are all different
        depending on the situation.

        NAM may be aggressive, but notice the SHARP drop as one
        moves Eastward. Even the models know, nothing doing on
        the coast.

      2. I am not sure. We should look after each thunderstorm threat and see what model performed the best just like in
        the winter when it comes to snowfall.
        Here is what NWS out if Upton, NY on NAM
        THE NAM HAS MUCH HIGHER SBCAPE WITH ITS WARMER
        SURFACE TEMPERATURES IN COMBINATION WITH DEW POINTS IN THE MID
        60S. FEEL CAPE VALUES MAY BE A BIT TOO HIGH IN THE NAM…BUT IT
        HAS THE RIGHT IDEA WITH ITS WARMER TEMPERATURES LEADING TO HIGHER
        AMOUNTS OF INSTABILITY.

        2. Sure, for inland and more Western Sections, like your area for example. Ain’t happening here in Boston I can almost
          guarantee that. We shall see. 😀

  24. I find it interesting that we still have aways to go before we reach the latest sunset at 8:25 pm (15+ minutes) but are much closer to the earliest sunrise at 5:07 am (6 minutes).

    1. You bet and you can see it on the maps. We need wind with a more
      Westerly component.

      Look at 10M winds for 2PM tomorrow

      http://www.instantweathermaps.com/NAM-php/showmap-conussfc.php?run=2015052618&time=INSTANT&var=GRDM&hour=024

      2Pm Thursday

      http://www.instantweathermaps.com/NAM-php/showmap-conussfc.php?run=2015052618&time=INSTANT&var=GRDM&hour=048

      WAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAY
      TOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOO
      MUUUUUUUUUUUUUUUUUCCCCCCCCCCCCCCCCCCHHHHHHHHH

      SOUTHERLY component to the Winds. As the storms approach the Eastern
      Sections, the marine influence WILL EAT UP any storms.

      Perhaps later in July or August better chance with this set up.
      Late MAY, FUGGETTABOUTIT!

      1. The same winds “should” prevent any 90 Degree readings near
        the Coast as well.

        UNLESS, of course, the maps are wrong and the wind has
        more of a Westerly Component. 😀

  27. After taking until May 4th at Logan to get to 70F, (it hit 84F that day), it has hit 80F or higher 7 times in the last 22 days.

  29. Philip… My feeling is that El Nino will persist and result in at least a mild and dry start to Winter.

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