Fab Friday / Split Weekend

114 Comments

11:25PM

SUMMARY…
An area of high pressure will bring wonderful late Spring weather to southern New England on Friday. It will be less warm than the Summery 3 days preceding it, and also less humid. The coastal areas will be cooler than the interior due to a sea breeze. By Friday night, some low clouds may try to come onshore from the east, and more will appear from the south during the night as high pressure slips to the southeast and a southerly flow develops. This flow will turn more southwesterly on Saturday, allowing the feel of Summer to return. This will set up the potential for some beneficial rain as a slow-moving cold front arrives Sunday. It remains to be seen how much rain will result, but it is the best shot in a while at some relief from the developing drought. This does not indicate a switch to a wet pattern, however, as a drier regime will resume next week. The early part of the week will be on the cool side, however, as high pressure parks itself north of the region and provides a regional onshore flow. By the middle of next week, high pressure will sink to the southeast and allow a warm-up to get underway.

SOUTHEASTERN NEW ENGLAND FORECAST…
OVERNIGHT: Partly cloudy to mostly clear. Lows 56-64. Wind NW up to 10 MPH.
FRIDAY: Partly sunny. Highs 65-70 immediate coast, 70s elsewhere. Wind N up to 10 MPH but sea breezes developing.
FRIDAY NIGHT: Partly to mostly cloudy with clouds most dominant in coastal areas. Lows 55-60. Wind light SE to S.
SATURDAY: Partly to mostly sunny but low clouds may be stubborn near the South Coast. More humid. Highs near 70 immediate South Coast up to the 80s most interior areas. Wind S to SW increasing to 10-20 MPH with higher gusts.
SATURDAY NIGHT: Partly to mostly cloudy. Humid. Lows in the 60s. Wind SW 5-15 MPH.
SUNDAY: Cloudy. Showers likely. Chance of thunderstorms. Humid. Highs 65-70 South Coast, 70-75 elsewhere, but turning cooler all areas during the afternoon. Wind variable to N 5-15 MPH.
MONDAY: Cloudy. Lows 55-60. Highs in the 60s, coolest coast.
TUESDAY: Clearing. Lows 55-60. Highs in the 60s, coolest coast.
WEDNESDAY: Sunny. Lows 55-60. Highs 60s coast to 70s inland.
THURSDAY: Sunny. Lows 55-60. Highs 70s coast to 80-85 inland.

114 thoughts on “Fab Friday / Split Weekend”

  1. Thanks tk. Although it’s the weekend I’m rooting for some much
    Needed rain on Sunday. We did not receive anything yesterday as the last two evenings it looked like a storm was coming but did not.

  2. Thanks TK !

    So true John, we really need rain on the south shore !!

    Beautiful start to the day.

  4. Interesting article…TK you might like this as I know you have an ax to grind (rightfully!) on social media and weather information…

    https://medium.com/@spann/the-age-of-disinformation-98d55837d7d9

    Excerpt:

    “Back to my point… many professional meteorologists feel like we are fighting a losing battle when it comes to national media and social media hype and disinformation. They will be sure to let you know that weather events they are reporting on are “unprecedented”, there are “millions and millions in the path”, it is caused by a “monster storm”, and “the worst is yet to come” since these events are becoming more “frequent”.”

  6. Still 48F atop Mt. Washington.

    Dry ground and full sunshine, I’m thinking over on the afternoon temps inland, away from the coastline.

  7. Thank you TK – looks as if we cool off next week. And as John and Tom wisely said, the rain will be very welcome. Does anyone know if there is a drought map that drills down to specific areas within a state?

    Thank you for the link WeatherWiz. I think someone (OS perhaps) posted it last week but it definitely is good to refresh.

    With regard to the comments in it and an event being unprecedented….how are we defining unprecedented? I believe that TX now has its wettest month on record. We had our snowiest month on record. Each year of this century is the hottest month on record. Sandy had multiple characteristics that set it apart from other storms. Would that characterize something as unprecedented?

    Also (yep full of questions this am), it was reported this hurricane season will have fewer named storms in the Atlantic. CBS reported that means the east coast will get off easy. However, I heard a commentary yesterday. I was at an appointment so could only half listen. The commenter said that they are focusing only on storms that form out into the Atlantic and not closer to the US which means we could, in fact, see more storms here than predicted. Does that make any sense? Sorry for the vague information.

    1. Great article and no it was not I that posted it previously. IN fact that is the 1st time I saw it.

      Now, regarding yesterday.

      I still don’t think the SPC or the computer models truly understand the impact
      of the marine influence on T-storms in our area when there is too much of
      a Southerly component to the wind as evidenced 2 days in a row.

      End of rant. 😀

      1. Thanks, OS. Hmmmm wonder who did post. Your comments sure do make sense as it was clear the past two days that it was as if a wall were erected.

      1. Wow – thank you. I have bookmarked it. Great resource. Now, I just have to remember I bookmarked it.

        I only had time to look quickly also but was surprised that we had more red than CA. Actually, I was surprised CA had so little red.

  9. Beautiful morning out there 🙂

    TK, are we talking enough rain on Sunday to make a difference or just some showers to wet the topsoil?

    2. “could” temporarily make a difference. Beneficial effects won’t last long.
      Just my lousy 2 cents. 😀

          1. Yup, but it hasn’t happened yet. 😀
            Let’s hope you all get some rain. Where I am, it
            just doesn’t matter if it rains or not.

      1. For some reason, my town has water restrictions no matter the rainfall situation. I can only water 2 days/week according to my side of the street for only 2 hrs. This is from April 1st – Oct 31st. Just got a letter in the mail yesterday saying full water ban, no lawn watering at any time with sprinklers, only handheld devices.

  11. It’s actually pretty easy to get “unprecedented” events since our methods of coverage have changed and also that we have only been observing and recording such events for a blip of time in comparison to the total time weather has existed.

    Sunday’s rain will be of mild and only temporary benefit.

    1. I understand and thanks, TK. That would make the use of the term accurate as long as we keep that in mind.

  14. I won’t root against the rain, but can it hold off until maybe 1pm Sunday? Even 12:30 would be okay. After that, it can rain all week.

  16. Logan is 66 Degrees with Wind Straight out of the EAST at 12 knots.

    Interesting – Boston Buoy is at 56.5 Degrees while the Stellwagen is at 50.7
    They are usually very close. Report times are the same.

  17. Ran home at lunch and the coast is socked in with fog. Amazing the difference a mile can make.

    1. Must be a bit more moisture left in the air down that way. Coast is OK
      up here. Nope, dew points are about the same. Only difference I can see
      is wind NE there and Due East here. I dunno.

  18. The fog and low clouds are a plume of low level moisture moving in from the ENE. Trajectory-wise it just happened to reach the Plymouth area first. It will be flirting with Logan soon enough.

  19. Latest Obs from Logan:

    29 15:54 E 8 7.00 Patches Fog FEW001 SCT055 SCT250 63 59

    Patches of Fog, eh? Nice and Sunny here with NOT even a hint of fog or low clouds.
    Good ole Logan, the smelly armpit of Massachusetts!!

    Hey, I have an idea. Why don’t we keep the weather records for Boston in a location
    where No One lives and NO ONE experiences that recorded weather. Yeah, that’s the ticket. Let’s keep it at Logan Airport. Makes perfect sense to me!!!!!

    It is BEAUTIFUL here!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!
    And I am maybe 2-3 miles from the airport.

  21. OS. Great idea to use logan for our weather records. But if you suggest it, the powers that be will probably fight you and make it somewhere else. 😉

  22. The announcer on golf channel just said TX has had 38 trillion gallons of water in month of may…enough to cover entire state 8 inches.

  23. Absolutely glorious late spring night. We went to Wayside Inn and ate on their terrace and were treated to a delicious dinner.

  24. Very cool ocean breeze made it to Woburn. Seemed to pick up some steam for a while and now it’s starting to ease. I loved the pictures of the fog bank over the eastern side of Boston late this afternoon. Looked awesome.

    1. And I know this comes as no surprise to you. I always loved watching the fog literally roll in when we were at the beach. You could see it coming. And then when you were actually in it, it took a minute to figure that out.

    2. Saw that out my window at work during the afternoon. Was pretty cool and when it came over the tops of the buildings downtown was too.

  25. Some GFS takeaways from the 00z run …….

    The continuing northward trend puts the heaviest rain in western and northwestern New England, areas that have at least seen a bit of rain through showers and storms the last few weeks.

    The GFS has been identifying something in the long range around the SE US coastline and it continues to be there on the 00z run. Today’s version appears to originate out of the Caribbean and heads up towards eastern FL and then northwestward from there.

    1. 6z run was crazy for this coming event- would completely erase our precip deficit. Shows nearly 6″ of rain for Boston! Might be just a tad overdone, lol 🙂

      Most models do seem to be favoring northwest areas like you said.

    2. Yes and that tropical disturbance is not in the 384th hour which is usually the GFS issue. Will be interesting too see.

  26. Its been a warm May ….. The departures from avg w/ 2 days to go ….

    Logan : +4.3F. (an 80F reading or higher today will be #10 for the month)

    Hartford : +6.7F (includes a 91F and a 90F)

    Providence : +4.4F

    Worcester : +6.3F

    Can see inland locations really feeling the warmth.

    Of course, only 90 days ago, during the memorable February, these climate stations were 12-14F below average. …….

    All data from Taunton NWS climate section

  27. Good morning. I was thinking crazy thoughts last night about Meteorological
    names for Bands/musical groups. At the moment, no bands currently come to mind, although my Brother once played drums in a band called HURRICANE.

    Here is a partial list in no particular order other than my most favorite first:

    HELICITY
    DEFORMATION ZONE
    NAO
    PNA
    EHI
    ADVECTION
    ALBEDO
    ANGULAR VELOCITY
    Beaufort Scale
    convection
    Doppler Radar
    Greenhouse Effect
    Iridescence
    Katabatic
    Millibar
    Monsoon
    Rawinsonde
    Rossby Waves
    Sea Breeze
    Unstable Air
    Vorticity
    SB CAPE
    Effective Bulk Shear
    Cloud Physics Thunder Parameter
    Lapse Rate
    Frontogenesis
    1000-500MB Thickness
    Mesoscale Discussion
    Peak Wind Gust
    Anemometer
    Orographic lift

    I could go on and on and on. Sorry for this whimsical post, but it kind of just came out.
    😀

  29. This much rain by 8PM Tuesday? Really? I don’t believe it.

    6Z GFS

    http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/gfs/2015053006/gfs_apcpn_neus_15.png

    Same period CMC

    http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/gem/2015053000/gem_apcpn_neus_16.png

    NAM totals through 18Z Tuesday

    http://mag.ncep.noaa.gov/Image.php?fhr=084&image=data%2Fnam%2F06%2Fnam_namer_084_precip_ptot.gif&model=nam&area=namer&param=precip_ptot&group=Model+Guidance&preselected_formatted_cycle_date=20150530+06+UTC&imageSize=M&ps=area

    I guess we’re in for some rain. How much is the question.

    1. Reasonable minds might say 1-1.5 inches across the area, BUT then again…..
      Who knows. Wonder IF the 12Z GFS is just as robust.

      Jim Cantore has been posting the GFS qpf maps.

    2. I think I’m starting to buy into an idea that Boston to Providence, points south and east dont see a great deal of rain. Maybe around .25 to .5 ???

      This area will probably not be affected by the convection ahead of the front. And then with the overall trof trending north, if there’s a rain area later Sunday into Monday, I do think it misses north and west.

      1. It would be consistent with drought that’s for sure.
        Let’s see how it plays out. Dying to see 12Z runs. 😀

      1. Its beautiful out.

        We sat out on the deck for a while. I like the mornings out there in summer, because thats when its in the shade.

        1. One of my favorite parts of summer is sitting out in the mornings and listening to the world come alive.

          1. One of my favorite parts is NOT freezing to death and feeling comfortable. I do like to hear the
            birds chirping.

  31. Today’s AccuWeather Trivia Quiz.

    What cirrocumulus clouds look like fish scales?
    A. Lenticular
    B. Uncinus
    C. Mare’s Tails
    D. Mackerel Sky

    Answer later today.

    1. Oh I guess it would be D, but then that would be too easy, wouldn’t it?

      Gonna change it to A, cus, well, they kind of look like fish scales in addition
      to a lens. 😀

  33. Just read the NWS technical discussion.

    They seem to think we get rain with front tomorrow and short wave riding
    stalled front on Monday. They think most rain will fall North of Pike and especially
    North of rt. 2. yet the say short wave will traverse South of New England.

    Will wait for 12Z runs, but looks to me like we could get significant rain here as
    well. Perhaps I am wrong. We shall see.

  34. 12Z Nam is interesting. Has rain with front, then a let up and then more rain and let up and more rain. Waiting for final precip figures, but it appear even SNE will benefit
    from this.

    1. Keeps the rain going and going well into Tuesday. Up to 3 inches for Boston
      and not done.

  37. 81 here with gusts up to low 20s. We have had wind from SSE far more than normal the past few weeks. There is a wind chime in memory of my brother on our porch and we rarely hear it chime; and when if does, it does so lightly . Lately, it is been constant and quite loud.

      1. The wind switches and of course the chimes have not sounded since I posted here :). Thank you. I love the memory too.

    1. Well, that’s what the 12Z GFS says. NAM more like 1.5 inches.

      Waiting on CMC. We shall see.

  40. Repost of Today’s AccuWeather Trivia Quiz.

    What cirrocumulus clouds look like fish scales?
    A. Lenticular
    B. Uncinus
    C. Mare’s Tails
    D. Mackerel Sky

    Answer later today.

  41. Wind from 210 Degrees at Boston and up to 83 at Noon.

    Water temps 54.9 and 51.3 still brrrr

      1. And how about a little reasoning to go along with that????

        NAM = Check
        CMC = Check
        GFS = Check
        JMA = Check
        Navgem = check
        Euro = BTFOOM Can’t tell because there ain’t no FREE precip
        maps, but it looks to give us some rain, just don’t know how much.

        So what will kill it? Axis too far North? Lift not as advertised?
        Spill the beans sir. 😀

        1. Actually I’m on the fence. I’m not completely sold, but I can’t argue against the computer-evidence that has presented itself. I’m becoming more convinced that we’ll have 3 wet days, but I’m not convinced that everyone is going to see over 2 inches of rain. Don’t get me wrong, a 1 to 2 inch rainstorm that is fairly widespread will be HELPFUL, but won’t kill the developing drought unless it’s followed by more regular rainfall, and that may not be in the cards. But we’ll nail down this upcoming event and then see what takes place beyond it.

  45. Someone was asking me, in regards to the fog bank near Boston yesterday, why the weather was “so crazy lately” because apparently fog banks never roll into Boston like that.

    I stared blankly, then burst out laughing. When I found out there were not kidding, I almost starting crying. 😛

    I rest my case. The media is causing mass hysteria, one person at a time. Explanation is apparently needed with everything now, along with reassurance. Unreal.

    1. Well as a resident old timer here, I can attest that all of this stuff
      has happened many times before. The only thing I haven’t witnessed
      was that record snow. But then we know even that has happened before
      by reading descriptions from earlier times before the records were kept.
      In short no big deal and as you say it’s just WEATHER

    2. I’m not sure we can blame the media cause the media cannot cause folks to stop thinking. I get that the media hypes but I honestly do not think the majority of folks don’t know that. Just my hopeful two cents

      1. …I mean, you can make an argument that “something is up” with some events, like maybe catastrophic flooding in Texas. However, when we make cement and asphalt waterways for the water to travel on, and build along riverbanks that are known to flood, we’re only setting ourselves up for these events to occur more often than they would otherwise, in terms of direct impact to humans.

        But you do have a very valid point about the media. My statement is probably more generalized than it should be. It just seems like these days you have 1 or 2 poorly-informed people posting something on social media, for example, that has completely inaccurate information, and suddenly it’s being shared by thousands and viewed as gospel. That cannot be blamed on mainstream media, unless they are posting the info to start with. That is the part I worry more about.

        1. On that we totally agree. It worries me at both ends. We have those who think every little thing has to do with climate change and equally as bad we have those who believe that there is nothing manmade about climate change. Like politics, the extremes scare me a lot.

          1. When Hugo destroyed homes on the isle of palms SC, the SC govt said nothing would be rebuilt in those areas. Three years later…maybe two…the homes had all been rebuilt. I reference that because it was an area we traveled to yearly to visit macs parents. But then look at Humarock. It defies logic that it still exists. And the original home still sits, not raised.

          2. Though I don’t always think we have as much influence as some say, I maintain there is no way we cannot influence the environment to at least some degree, seeing how we are PART of the environment. 🙂

            1. We have polluted, destroyed, interferred and molded this earth to suit our needs and our greeds. We may not be the only cause as we all know weather is cyclical but I sure think we are a large contributing factor. Sadly, if we chose to do nothing, we won’t know for sure until it is too late.

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