Monday Forecast

76 Comments

7:14AM

DAYS 1-5 (OCTOBER 26-30)…
As we progress through the last week of October we will see a pattern that produces a variety of weather, from a bright chill early in the week as Canadian high pressure dominates New England to a period of wet weather Wednesday as low pressure tracks northeastward through the Ohio Valley and Great Lakes and pushes a warm front toward southern New England. Some of the moisture from the former Hurricane Patricia from the Pacific ocean will be associated with this system, and the rain will be of some benefit for our area which is running a significant rainfall deficit for the year. This system moves right along and after we’re briefly in the warm sector of this system Wednesday night and early Thursday, a cold front will sweep through and dry the weather out during Thursday. Significant cooling will wait until a secondary front crosses the region Thursday night from the northwest, and Friday will turn out windy and much cooler with dry weather.
TODAY: Sunny. Highs 48-55. Wind N 5-15 MPH.
TONIGHT: Clear. Lows 20s inland valleys, 30-35 elsewhere. Wind light N.
TUESDAY: Mostly sunny. Highs in the 50s. Wind variable 5-15 MPH.
WEDNESDAY: Cloudy. Rain likely. Lows in the 40s. Highs 55-65, mildest at night.
THURSDAY: A few early rain showers otherwise sun and clouds, windy. Lows in the 50s. Highs 65-75.
FRIDAY: Partly cloudy and windy. Lows in the 30s. Highs 45-55.

DAYS 6-10 (OCTOBER 31-NOVEMBER 4)…
Looks like a dry and chilly Halloween October 31. A couple low pressure systems bring the chance of some wet weather late November 1 into November 2 and again November 4, with timing somewhat uncertain.

DAYS 11-15 (NOVEMBER 5-9)…
Mostly dry weather. Temperatures near to below normal.

76 thoughts on “Monday Forecast”

  2. Thanks TK !

    Halloween night looks to be shaping up pretty good at this point.

    Vicki, hope today is a good day !!

    1. Keeping fingers crossed for Halloween. Thanks for that good news, Tom. And thank you for your wishes 🙂

  4. Vicki – my thoughts and prayers are for you and your family. I will continue to pray for Mac in my daily prayers.

  8. Current Boston Buoy (Located 16 Miles East of Boston) is 54 Degrees.
    Definitely a few degrees above normal.

    1. That will change by the middle of November. I think the water temperature will return to normal levels soon, given the relatively cool nights we’ve been having and will continue to have on and off the coming 10-15 days.

      1. Not sure of that. The anomaly is so large, I think we would
        need an extended period of below average temperatures.

        Not sure we are going to get that.

        I don’t see much in the way of any extended below average temperatures until at least 11/8 or 11/9. We shall see.

      1. Yes, it’s a cold place no doubt. But, temps up there are below normal, snow amounts above normal, and this trend has been stubbornly present for a long time (since summer of 2014). It’s not just northeastern Canada. Much of Quebec province has trended cold, too. To the north and northwest of Montreal there was more snow this past weekend. There have been a few `warmer’ periods, but these are few and far between.

        Normal high today in Kimmirut is -4C; normal low is -11C. It’s -8C right now and will likely get to -14C tonight, and colder tomorrow night. `Warm-up’ is forecast by Environmental Canada but that’s not supposed to last more than a day or two.

        The effects of cold to our north are unclear. From my limited understanding of weather, cold up north can be `trapped’ and have no impact on our winter if we get a consistent SW flow with H ridging to our south and southeast. But – and this is the wildcard this winter – if we continue with the pattern we are currently experiencing we will get some serious shots of cold air and good chances for snowstorms. Buckling of the jet-stream is a distinct possibility. My guess is that those cold shots will be relatively short-lived and timing will have to be just right on the snow chances. I actually think it’ll be a very interesting winter ahead. Not especially cold on average, but the potential exists for quite a number of wintry events.

          1. Way to much hinging on this strong El Niño when it’s not the only factor. JP what’s the status on the Siberia snow.

        2. Joshua,

          Thank you. Yes, that feature is the one I am currently battling and trying to figure how it plays out this
          Winter for the Snow estimate.

          There will be Plenty of cold to the North.
          The question is, will it mostly stay up there
          with the Southern Stream El Nino Jet keeping it at bay.
          OR will there be intrusions from the North that dip
          into New England? And if that happens, will there
          be any linkage with Southern Stream.

          Extremely difficult to know this far out.

          The only thing I will say is that New England will NOT
          be very far removed from the Cold pool. It would not
          take especially much to have it drain down here.

          I wonder IF there might be at least some ICE events?

          I agree that it should be interesting.

          Anxiously awaiting Dr. Cohen’s latest blog entry.

          1. Shoot him an email and he will get back to you. He did pop in here a couple of years ago. Tell him your from woodshill weather.

            1. I subscribe to his blog. I’ll receive an
              email with a link when he issues it.

              Thanks

              PS It comes out on Wednesday, usually.

              1. He is a Reasearch Affiliate at MIT’s Parsons Lab which is part of the Civil and Environmental engineering department. His main position is Director of Seasonal Forecasting at AER

                http://www.aer.com/

                1. Yes I know that . I’ve had several conversations with him through email over the years. He always gets back to me

    1. Thanks, JJ. I was living in the Netherlands at the time, but visited my parents from around Dec. 18th, 1982, until Jan. 6th, 1983. That brief period included several major oscillations. From very cold to very mild to everything in between. There was snow. There was rain. There was a major ice storm that impacted the interior, at least the interior to our southwest.

    2. Thanks Jimmy. I was in college during that time, but I have no memory of that storm even though based on that map, Boston was in the 10-20 inch range. The 1980s in general wasn’t all that snowy with only two winters (1981-82, 1987-88) with above normal snowfall and not by all that much.

      1982-83 @ Logan = 32.7″

  12. Besides Boston/Logan, what other cities are wanted for the snowfall contest?

    I am not all that comfortable guessing the amount for other locations, but I will give it a try. I am going to have to look up the “average” amounts and come up with a number given the strong El Nino pattern. As I mentioned earlier I have enough trouble with Logan. 🙂

        1. I like the choices TK made.
          I will guess for them all, but I will admit that
          I am going with Logan and then adjusting the other
          cities accordingly.

          1. I will do some research and post the “average” numbers for those other cities then adjust accordingly. Most likey they will all be below their averages.

  13. I believe Hartford, Providence, and Concord are the other cities.
    For anyone making a snowfall prediction for Hartford the official measurements are not taken in the city of Hartford. They are taken at Bradley International Airport in Windsor Locks which is north of Hartford. Average snowfall 40.5 inches.

        1. I think TK decided to NOT include Concord keeping it to just:

          Boston
          Worcester
          Hartford
          Providence.

          You can double check with Mr. Blog. 😀

          1. Only reason I thought Concord was because Charlie included it. I like expanding horizons, especially if we have bloggers from other states, but I don’t care one way of the other. I believe we may have folks on here from NH and RI. We certainly do from MA and CT.

            Not sure about ME or VT.

            But then forecasts are confined mostly to MA. As I said, it just doesn’t matter. Once you decide, TK, just let me know and I’ll set up the spreadsheet.

    2. Thanks Jimmy for the head start. I hope Worcester is included as well. I don’t know what their average is, but I suspect it is the highest in the state given their airport is so high in altitude.

    3. Thanks, JJ

      I was going to ask the difference between Hartford and Bradley. I’ll put your comment on the contest page as well

  18. Looking like a good dose of rain Wednesday afternoon into Thursday morning. I’m seeing 1-2 inches w/ isolated 3 inch amounts. We shall see. 🙂

      2. Is it too late to throw seed down? If it doesnt germinate now, will it survive the winter and germinate in the spring>?

        1. Throwing seed down now am is a little late, if you throw some down it should germinate, and if it doesn’t it will in April. However the results will not be as good as if you seeded before 10/20, 10/20 is my date I try to do my last seedings. 🙂

  19. Regarding the snowfall contest, I am not comfortable with having NNE cities included since most of us live here in SNE and also the fact that El Nino may effect them quite differently. In fact, if I am not mistaken NNE has had much more rain overall this past summer than SNE and does not have anywhere near the rainfall deficits as we do down here. I would think that NNE will be closer to the colder air and have more opportunities for snow, but snce El Nino is going to be so strong, who knows?

    TK – If you decide to include NNE how about posting a general winter outlook in terms of temp/precip for that region as a guideline? Thanks in advance. 🙂

  20. Why did we even change to add more than Boston for snow. I’m just guessing for Boston sorry don’t want to be difficult

    1. That’s not difficult. it is an opinion

      Why not give several choices so those who live in different areas are represented and then folks can put choices for one or all or a few

  21. Seemed like peak day today for fall tree colors today in Bristol and Plymouth Counties. Lots of beautiful colors against a milky blue sky. I suspect leaves will fall in a big way in Wednesday’s winds.

  22. Hi all!

    Regarding the snow contest I’ll have an official post about it in a couple days.

    I’m going to use 3 cities that fall in my forecast area of southeastern New England:
    Boston, Worcester, and Providence. Basically close representations of the eastern coast, interior, and southern coast.

    You do not have to submit a guess for all 3 cities unless you want to. We’ll get a list for all 3 cities and rank everyone who guessed each one. We’ll update each with the amounts people guessed and the current snow, and of course at the end of the season we will list a final amount with everyone’s guesses so we can compare.

    There’s no prize other than bragging rights, so this is why I feel that guessing 1, 2, or 3 cities is fine. It’s just for fun.

    Deadline for guesses is going to be 9PM Sunday November 15. Any snow that should fall in any city before that is just an equal bonus for everyone, therefore it does not matter.

    1. I would like to just add, if you go to the top of the page, there’s a contest section where you can post, thank you Vicki for pointing that out. 🙂

      1. You bet. I saw you put your guesses there. Thank you. I’m thinking from TKs comments he may have someone else recording so that person may have a different plan

      2. I will add that detail to the “official” post but thank you for pointing it out here and of course reminding us that Vicki issued a reminder of it recently as well.

        I’m not a big fan of how that menu system is set up but I can’t do much to change it yet.

  23. We’ll lose a lot of foliage Wednesday with combined rain/wind.

    I figure 1 to 2 inches widespread with isolated heavier amounts mainly from noon to midnight, +/- a couple hours either side.

    If we get enough sun Thursday, someone cracks 70. Things move quickly enough that I may end up upping my high temps for Saturday after a one-day chill-down for Friday.

    1. Makes sense. Very strong winds just above the surface. Any convection can bring damaging gusts to the surface.

      And I will probably also include Hartford in the snow contest as well.

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