Wednesday Forecast

79 Comments

7:27AM

DAYS 1-5 (OCTOBER 28-NOVEMBER 1)…
No significant changes to yesterday’s discussion, so on to an updated forecast.
TODAY: Cloudy. Periods of rain develop west to east in the afternoon. Highs in the 50s. Wind E shifting to SE increasing to 10-20 MPH with higher gusts by late in the day.
WEDNESDAY NIGHT: Cloudy with periods of rain and rain showers, heavy at times. Chance of thunder. Temperatures steady in the 50s early, rising to the 60s overnight. Wind SE to S 15-25 MPH with higher gusts, potentially to 40 MPH or greater.
THURSDAY: Any showers end early otherwise sun and passing clouds. Risk of one more passing shower late day or early evening. Highs 68-75. Wind W 15-25 MPH and gusty.
FRIDAY: Mostly sunny. Lows in the 40s. Highs in the 50s.
SATURDAY: Mostly sunny. Lows in the 30s. Highs around 60. Cooling 50s to 40s evening with fair weather for Halloween.
SUNDAY: Partly to mostly cloudy. Risk of a rain shower late. Lows around 40. Highs around 60.

DAYS 6-10 (NOVEMBER 2-6)…
Rain showers possible early November 2. Fair November 3. Rain showers possible early November 4. Fair November 5-6. Temperatures above normal, warmest later in the period.

DAYS 11-15 (NOVEMBER 7-11)…
Overall mainly dry weather. Temperatures near to above normal during the period.

79 thoughts on “Wednesday Forecast”

  4. Good morning and thank you TK.

    Will the winds produce or not?

    Not impressed at the moment. We shall see.

    1. NAM keeps 50 mph winds off shore.
      GFS brings 50+ all over SE MA and just about to Boston.

      So I guess we shall see. Will look at HRRR and 12Z runs for updates.

      1. So far, the HRRR does NOT agree with the GFS regarding
        50 mph winds. HRRR keeps them off shore, at least through
        03Z this evening. GFS had 50 mph winds just about to Boston
        at 03Z. Go Figure.

        Will continue to monitor.

        IMHO, wind forecasts tend to be over done. Certainly not always, but often.

          1. Oh sorry, when I post these, they are usually for gusts. I should be more clear. But yes, all that I have discussed today are for gusts only.

            I’ll make a point to be more clear.
            When I post a map, it has it already indicated
            on it.

  6. Regarding winds: Strongest gusts will be isolated and will favor higher elevation locations. Don’t look for it to happen everywhere though there will be some decent gradient wind.

    1. Thank you. Was wondering about that. We have a blow up spider on the roof and won’t plug it in but were wondering whether to take it down. We will leave up and hope it stays in Kansas

    1. Glad to hear that! I know it’s a 12 hour storm so given those lessend amounts will there be less heavy downpours?

  11. Hey All! It’s a fools errand trying to keep leaves out of my driveway water trap. Between the wind and leaves falling off the trees it’s an uphill and seemingly unwinable battle.

  12. Thanks, TK, and also thanks for your updated forecast on rain totals. I’m not seeing that much rain intensity in these parts on the model forecasts. Boston could indeed have less than 1 inch, and perhaps as little as a half inch. Certainly no drought-buster.

    Public Garden has peaked in terms of foliage. The colors are a sight to behold, as they are every year. And it’s right in the heart of Boston.

    I think that starting at the end of next week we’re going to see a period of consistently cooler weather, with temps at night around freezing in most places, especially away from the immediate coast. I think models are underestimating the coolness. Certainly nothing out of the ordinary, in fact normal temperatures. But, we will start to see the ocean temps drop.

  13. I hope we (I) didn’t cause Charlie to leave our blog. I was upset about Vicki temporarily leaving the blog, and I thought Charlie might have had a hand in it. But, Charlie’s fine. We can have disagreements, and he likes to provoke us which can be annoying. But, I can be annoying, too. Overall, I enjoyed reading about his lawn exploits, time spent in Texas, and his perpetual anticipation of spring starting around the 1st of December.

      1. Thanks for letting me know, Sue. “Weatherman,” … I would have expected a name like “Springtime.”

    2. Thanks Joshua! I here on a daily basis, I’ve turned the leaf over, and going to try to be a little more of a asset to the blog, instead of being annoying. I’ll still probably be annoying from time to time, but not so much lol 🙂 🙂 🙂

  14. Thanks TK !

    I’m looking forward to the brief return of 60s and 70s.

    Still happy to see good weather for Halloween night.

  17. Tk, many thanks for the wind update. Latest HRRR not very bullish on really
    strong winds. Max winds of 30-40 mph confined to just off shore and out from there.

  18. Funny been windy all day and it has been calm the last 15 minutes or so…no wind. Was able to get my leaves up so that’s good.

  19. Vicki, I’m so sorry to hear that Mac is having such a difficult time with his treatment. I will most definitely continue to keep you and Mac in my thoughts with extra prayers added!!!

  21. Thank you, Shotime. Mac was just readmitted to the hosp. The pain meds are making a mess of his system to the point he couldn’t eat or drink. They did drain a liter of fluid from his collapsed lung and may try for more tomorrow. I just want them to get going on the next treatment. We are very grateful for your support and prayers.

    On the weather front, it has been raining in Milford for a bit. Is there a time when it will be heaviest. I’d like to be home before that. Thank you

    1. So sorry to hear that. It must be very rough. Hang in there. We are all sending positive vibes your way.

  24. Oh, Vicki, I am very sorry to hear about Mac. Agonizing, frustrating, difficult. I do hope he can eat and drink again soon. I assume they’ve got him on an IV with fluids.

    Take care. Prayers for you and your family.

  26. I still think we can get 1″ of rain in Boston, all it takes is one round of convection to move through. Same goes for winds, I think we could see some of the higher gusts in convection. Also, SPC has a 2% chance for a tornado today all the way up to the middle of CT!

  27. In spite of this system being subtropical in nature (formerly Hurricane Patricia) and that we will be 70+ tomorrow, there is actually a good swath of snow on the back side in the Dakotas and Minnesota.

    That time of the year is approaching. 😉

    1. Yes it certainly is. Once we turn the page on the calendar to November,
      it really could happen any day.

  29. Vicki hang in there . I’m very sorry Mac is having a hard time and I hope with him being admitted they can make some progress. Please keep us updated.

  31. I think storm lives up to its original expectation. 1+ of water for Boston and many towns. Wind gusts up to 50 along the coast line and up to 30 mph inland. It’s been a steady rain thus far with the strongest yet to come.

    Best of luck with Mac Vicki. I’m not very active anymore on the blog but I’m actively reading. I’m here if you have any medical questions.

    2. Thank you arod. I truly appreciate your offer. I drive the drs crazy with questions ….I have lists when we go to appointments…..very Long lists 🙂

      1. I’m the same way Vicki with both myself and my wife. I was drilling multiple doctors last week on my wife’s behalf .

  32. Looking ahead at weeklies and monthlies they have been consistently indicating that the dominant force at least going into Winter will indeed by El Nino split flow, non phasing variety.

    1. Example: Today’s 18z GFS is a decent representation of how I think the November/December/January pattern is going to be, but with a gradual switch to wetter in the southern US later in the that period.

  33. DeGrom looks like a heavier version of Tim Linsecum. I know, no-one’s watching, which is odd given how compelling the divisional series were and last year’s WS, and game one of this year’s match-up. After a long period during which big market teams dominated in vying for playoff spots, pennants, and WS championships, baseball has found a way to achieve relative parity, which can’t quite be said about the other sports at this time, in spite of a slew of regulations, arbitrary salary caps, etc … which are supposed to produce parity. In fact, right now, with a few exceptions the other sports have become somewhat predictable in terms of who’s making it into the playoffs and going on a deep run. I like the Patriots, but it’s got to be boring to a neutral viewer to see the Pats, Packers, Broncos, and Seahawks (well, maybe not this year) year in year out filling up the conference championship slots. It’s been somewhat similar in hockey and basketball in recent years.

    1. Darn but the smile your comment gave me felt great. Thank you. I do…he does…have the whole blog and that is beyond special.

  36. 57 with what sounds like some strong but spaced gusts out there. Half an inch of rain. Mother nature is helping me let off some steam tonight. I like this ☔️☔️

  37. So is that whole blob over PA and NY going to,just pass north to the west of us? And will the spotty areas over us fill in or is this it 🙁

  38. I am watching World Series. Great game one and so far great game two. The Mets have a pitching staff in place now that is going to be tough to face in the years to come.

  39. .86 so far, I notice it’s only windy when it rains, which says the rain is being the wind to the ground from way up. Temp is in the low 60’s. Getting a good night sleep because tomorrow night we will be up late. Go Patriots!! 🙂

    1. Oh dear heavens. Are the pats playing tomorrow night? It is NOT a good sign when I have lost that much touch.

        1. Thanks Charlie. I also was just listening to the wind pick up as the rain got heavier. We have .75 here so far

  40. I don’t want to generalize too much, but the difference, no the gulf, between the AL and NL is growing. Sure, there are exceptions. SF Giants have proven that they can beat AL teams, also in regular season play. So have the Cardinals. But, those two teams are the exception and not the rule. Regular season interleague play is practically one-sided. The NL is atrocious. WS and All-Star games, the AL tends to prevail as well, with the noted exceptions. The rule is that lineups, like the Mets trotted out this evening, are a joke compared to the Royals. Heck, the Red Sox have a much better lineup. And, although good pitching can shut down good hitting, sometime good hitting – especially of the aggressive kind – wears out good pitching. I hope this series is competitive. It was in game one. But, I fear a blow-out.

  41. Good Morning. Some storm stuff:

    Fall River area … flood watch/warning
    Southeast MA counties … wind advisory
    Coastal areas … flood watch
    Randolph area … power outage
    Highways … many accidents already this AM.

    Good news … we need the moisture!

  42. Good morning.

    Well, I guess it looks like I poopooed the event a bit prematurely.

    It looks like the rain materialized and the wind to some extent. Higher elevations
    really caught the wind. Highest I saw was a gust to 60 at Blue Hill. Logan was like
    40 (highest hourly obs, I don’t know about an isolated gust).

    It was pretty windy here around 10-11 PM. Not so much now.

    1. The event took place pretty much as expected. These are always tough forecasts because of the isolated nature of the strongest wind gusts.

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