Wednesday Forecast

136 Comments

5:01AM

First, a brief look back at the messy little storm of Tuesday. Though the overall amounts of snow/sleet were close to forecast, the temperatures had me fooled. I should have thought a little more about the possibility of the secondary low to the south being strong enough to pull cold air southward but weak enough so that the result wasn’t a stronger east wind warming the lower atmosphere more than it did. So, icy ground was more common than I had expected and will continue into today for parts of the region as it is slow to warm.

DAYS 1-5 (DECEMBER 30-JANUARY 3)…
A weak low pressure system will approach from the southwest today as very weak high pressure sits to the north of the region. Some light rain may be around tonight, and may freeze on surfaces in lower elevations of interior southern NH and north central MA. It turns a little milder for New Year’s Eve with any early rain exiting southeastern areas and a mix of clouds/sun for the day. Fair weather and temperatures dropping through the 30s is expected for the nighttime festivities. It may be a little breezy but overall it will be quite nice compared to how cold it can be. The people won’t freeze, and the ice sculptures won’t melt. When we get to New Year’s Day itself, look for a pleasant but chilly day, perfect for outdoor hockey, and it just so happens that a match up between the Boston Bruins and Montreal Canadiens will take place that afternoon in the NHL Winter Classic at Gillette Stadium in Foxboro! Once we get to New Year’s Weekend, look for a trend toward colder weather. A disturbance may result in snow showers by Sunday.
TODAY: Mostly cloudy. Highs 35-40 except 40-45 Cape Cod. Light wind.
TONIGHT: Cloudy. Risk of rain mainly 9PM-3AM except freezing rain pockets in southern NH and interior MA. Lows 30-37. Light wind.
THURSDAY: Mostly cloudy morning with a risk of rain early Cape Cod. Clearing afternoon. Highs in the 40s. Wind light variable early becoming W and increasing to 10-20 MPH with higher gusts.
THURSDAY NIGHT – NEW YEAR’S EVE: Mostly clear. Evening temperatures falling into 30s. Overnight lows 25-32. Wind W 5-15 MPH, diminishing.
FRIDAY – NEW YEAR’S DAY: Partly cloudy. Highs 36-43. Wind W 5-15 MPH.
SATURDAY: Mostly sunny. Lows in the 20s. Highs in the 30s.
SUNDAY: Variably cloudy. Chance of snow showers. Lows in the 20s. Highs in the 30s.

DAYS 6-10 (JANUARY 4-8)…
A couple shots of colder air bring overall temperatures close to seasonal normals during this period, though they will be variable day to day, with mainly dry weather.

DAYS 11-15 (JANUARY 9-13)…
May have to watch for a storm system later in the period after it starts out mainly dry and chilly.

136 thoughts on “Wednesday Forecast”

  1. Thanks tk 🙂 Good morning!!! Coldest morning so far, can’t wait to go to Bermuda for 12 days next weekend. Perfect timing!!!! Be safe in your travels. 😉
    Reply

  2. FYI Charlie I work in the travel business and have had the opportunity of traveling the world so I have a ton of experience in airports. Let me make something very clear, Logan is actually one of the best and easiest airports I have used. Unless you have travelled extensively abroad there is no way to comment on how good or bad Logan is, so I will do that for you.
    I have been to every continent except Antarctica and I can tell you without a shread of doubt that Logan has great international and domestic flights and the ease of the airport in comparison to others isn’t even close. So before you make comments you might want to check your attitude and trust people that actually have experience.

    1. LOL!! I probably shouldn’t even respond but I will, I’ll make it short and sweet for you so,,,, let me make myself very clear, and this is the last thing I will say about airports,,, “so listen up” be wide eyed,,, and bushy tailed,, Logan as a airport is a shit show, it’s small, congested, the roads are like a bowl of spaghetti, I’ve been all over the world Hadi, and been to some state of the art airports abroad and in America, if you put the amount of airline traffic through Logan, you’d be in a holding pattern doing circles above the airport for hours. What makes it so good? ” the proximity to the city? Cmon!! I’d rather drive 30 min’s to another airport “stress free” instead of being packed in like sardines. Everyone has there opinion, that’s mine 🙂 again I’m not commenting again on this. It’s just an opinion. It’ll be ok 🙂

        1. He said he wasn’t going to respond again and that we should listen up….Personally I am done reading or replying to any of his comments. I have already said numerous times that his posts regarding the weather in our town are usually false as others have also seen, so just remember to take them with a grain of salt along with everything else he says.

                1. I did :). And Charlie….as I said. My sister in law has been a flight attendant for 47 years starting internationally because she speaks 7 languages. Now US only. I read her your latest comment. She enjoyed the laugh And said the only positive is that it was your last comment.

      3. im sorry charlie but logan is one of the best in the business of staying open. There are so many airports that abosolutly stuck, some I have in mind. Chicago, some of the new city airports. etc.

    1. Hadi – not sure you saw my post yesterday(I think it was yesterday). But I just want to say hi and hope you and your family had a wonderful Christmas! 🙂

  5. Appears the overnight salting has worked well on roads. However I would be very careful on sidewalks as I almost tumbled.

  6. Thank you tk for the morning update.
    25 degrees as I depart this morning.
    Sitting at the dealership waiting for
    Car to be seviced.

    We shall see what develops down the road

  9. Thanks TK
    Offshore storm on 6z GFS for late next week and another storm chance earlier the following the week.

  11. The weather in Bermuda this time of year isn’t as great as most might think. High 60’s – low 70’s and off and on showers isn’t my idea of a vacation.

  12. Thank you TK.

    Took my boys to Providence last night to see the WWE Holiday Tour. I am so not a fan of wrestling but I have to say they put on a good show. The highlight of the show for my older son was that Gronk was there also. I was kind of hoping he would hop in the ring but I suppose if he sustained an injury we would have one unhappy coach. Seems as though he knew one of the tag teams that performed last night as they pointed him out to the crowd. Perhaps he was in Providence because he chose to fly out of Green to Miami as opposed to that God awful Logan. 🙂

  14. Charlie is in the real estate business, he takes up space in your heads. He controls the blog at times.

    Very similar to Trump’s success so far in the election.

    1. Drove into the office from car dealership in Newton.
      You mentioned layer on trees. I should have pulled over and snapped
      a photo, but I could see that driving in this morning. It was noticable near
      the Chestnut Hill Mall and also Putterham Meadows golf course in Brookline.
      I could see clearly a layer of ice on the trees. It looked awesome.
      I am kicking myself for not snapping a photo!!!

  18. Let’s not talk about airports unless weather-related. I realize it all started with the cancellation of many flights due to sleet and severe weather. But, I feel like it’s become a beauty pageant referendum on Logan. I’ll also refrain from discussing sports or politics. I’ve been guilty of this and for that I repent.

    Nice and wintry feel and look out there. Refreshing, although the limited sun continues to be a downer. Looks like next week we’ll begin to see some sunny, cold winter days. I enjoy those the most. I don’t really care if it snows as long as it’s seasonably cold.

    1. Sports is fine as long as it doesn’t turn into bashing. There is really only one person here that does that.

  19. 12z GFS has 989 low over NYC On January 11th with a rainorama to start then as low pulls away a turn over to some wintry precipitation.
    Storm looks to stay well over the fish for late next week.

  20. Tk I’m very good friends with Dave he lives here in town and has helped me out a great deal . We actually just dropped off a certificate to dinner last week, he is 5 minutes down the road.

  21. 12 GFS has 1/11 as the big date of interest. That’s still a long way off, but right
    now it has a significant system as an “inside runner” on that date. Loaded with
    precip, but at this point indicating rain for all but up North. It will be interesting
    to see how that changes from run-to-run. If it keeps it for that date, moves the timing up, retards the timing,Changes the path OR even loses it altogether. We shall see, BUT
    it is in that time period mentioned by Eric on the BZ blog and the time frame TK
    mentions.

  22. In the early 70s there was a winter that produced a lot of sleet, ice, and glaze and not much snow. I lived in Needham at the time. The glaze was astoundingly beautiful at times, and we had several prolonged icing events. I believe it was 1973, but I could be wrong.

    I know I’ve said this before but I absolutely love the Icelandic word for sleet: slydda. I believe the English word sleet comes from Icelandic. They have so much darn sleet in southern Iceland. On my many trips to Europe, I’d request a copy of the local newspaper (Morgunbladid), which I could not really read. I could, however, distill some of what was written because of my knowledge of Dutch and German. The weather report was interesting, albeit a downer for anyone hoping for sun (it is mostly to completely overcast 90% of the time in Iceland):

    Senin (Monday): skýjaður (cloudy), slydda, 2C
    Selasa (Tuesday): skýjaður, slydda, 1C
    Rabu (Wednesday): skýjaður, slydda/fönn (snow), 0C
    Kamis (Thursday): skýjaður, slydda/rigning (rain), 3C

    1. Slydda is a great word. How is it pronounced?

      I don’t remember the 1973 storm. I do recall a huge ice storm January 10 or 11 in 1991.

    2. I have some very good friends from Iceland. I would love to visit them some time as I’ve heard it is a beautiful country in so many ways! But, I’m not so sure that I could adjust to a day of light or lack there of.

  23. That is a strong low on the 12z GFS for 1/11 . If that could track offshore some things COULD get more interesting. Right now GFS has it as a rain ending as a little bit of mixed wintry precipitation.

  25. I have a question. It is so icy by my house (Milton)–I had to take some trash out and honestly didn’t think I was going to get back to the house–and I have a wee little yard and was on a grassy surface. The ice is just so thick there. So, tonight when it rains, why isn’t that going to turn to freezing rain? I believe it will freeze on my ice, but what about everywhere else?

    2. I just took out trash also. My initial plan was to put it outside front door so son in law could put it in barrel after work. I hate doing that if avoidable because it just seems rude. When I managed to get back in the house, I txtd him to say I’d risked life and limb. 🙂 🙂

      I don’t think that is far from the truth. It is really slippery.

      Also not shoveling driveway yesterday was the better choice I think. It was warm enough to soften it just a bit so I could get a foothold. I notice shoveled driveways are solid black ice. One thing they did not do was melt

  26. My two cents on Charlie. I do not mind his posts on weather. He likes (loves) spring. That’s fine with me. Even when he’s overplaying North Attleboro’s resistance to winter elements (eg, hardly ever snows in North Attleboro, when it does it melts right away, temperature is invariably warmer there than any town or city in the vicinity, etc …) I’m perfectly fine with it. It’s when we get on topics like Logan, snow-haters v. lovers, sports, politics, etc … that problems crop up. Some of it is a genuine difference of opinion. Some of it is personal and intended to provoke or engage in an non-constructive way. He probably means it when he says he’s trying not to offend. But, he can’t help being offensive sometimes. I know plenty of people like that. At work, for example. Even in my extended family. I deal with them by only engaging when their comments are appropriate or constructive. Otherwise, I ignore.

  27. Good Afternoon, The only hint of what I am about to say came from Deb and brief
    response by Scott. I just came in. It is nearly 1:30 PM and it’s ONLY 30 Degrees out
    there. Now when this rain arrives, UNLESS something changes quickly, we are
    in for more Freezing Rain. Now it could warm up quickly and an onshore breeze
    could freshen mitigating ice, but I have to say I am now officially Concerned about
    ice potential.

    high temperatures so far have greatly Under acheived!!

    Thoughts?

    An btw, that is some potent rain moving up along the coast. That is NOT light stuff.
    I realize we may only get fringed with lighter rain, but that is serious rain down there.

  28. Good Afternoon, The only hint of what I am about to say came from Deb and brief
    response by Scott. I just came in. It is nearly 1:30 PM and it’s ONLY 30 Degrees out
    there. Now when this rain arrives, UNLESS something changes quickly, we are
    in for more Freezing Rain. Now it could warm up quickly and an onshore breeze
    could freshen mitigating ice, but I have to say I am now officially Concerned about
    ice potential.

    high temperatures so far have greatly Under acheived!!

    Thoughts?

    An btw, that is some potent rain moving up along the coast. That is NOT light stuff.
    I realize we may only get fringed with lighter rain, but that is serious rain down there.

    1. Damn. I posted that and NOTHING showed, so I hit post again and it said I already said it, so I added a space and hit post again.

      The Word Press Gremlin is at it again. 😀

      1. I think I see what is happening. Sometimes I don’t see it show up. So I select all and copy my comment just in case it didn’t show up. Then I refresh page to see if it is there. 100% of time it has been there.

  29. Tweet from meteorologist Ryan Hanrahan. Hopefully we could get some snow while the window is open.
    Great pattern flip with -AO in early Jan but it may be temporary. Don’t see a SSW or any big change in stratosphere.

  31. Looks like the NWS has extended the southern portion of the freezing rain advisory to extend to just south of Boston.

    Post sunset, the temps should continue to inch up. I have a feeling that before light precip arrives, Logan and perhaps westward a few miles will have inched up above freezing.

    Boston Harbor buoy air temp up 1.6F last hour to 36.7F and the wind has veered ever so slightly to 020.

    I’d guess around 5 to 6pm tonight should see just a slight increase of the surface wind and then the temps might jump 3 to 5F at Logan. Merrimack Valley, “rte 2, the usual cold spots may still be under 32F when the light precip arrives.

  32. Rain is still due tonight and CMC is beginning to see the freezing rain potential
    just about to the coast. This will be something to watch for tonight.

    Here is the CMC global

    http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/gem/2015123012/gem_mslp_pcpn_frzn_us_3.png

    RGEM HiRes

    http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/gem/2015123012/gem_mslp_pcpn_frzn_us_3.png

    http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/rgem/2015123012/rgem_mslp_pcpn_frzn_us_6.png

    NAM keeps any frozen more to the North.

    It shall be close by the looks of it.

  33. Just throwing it out there …..

    1/4 to 1/5 time frame ….. Possible SE Mass/Cape Cod ocean effect snow event.

    Be interested next 48 hrs to see that particular time frame on the models, even for a bigger part of southern New England.

    Confidence …. Low, but I thought still worth mentioning.

    1. In case anyone doesn’t remember, Tom predicted some sort of Ocean Effect
      event some time ago. Hope it pans out for you.

  34. If I may …..and sadly, it I mayent …..did anyone notice who was one of first to speak out in defense of Payton Manning? After all he has been through and after all the backs that were turned on him, he is such a gracious person.

    And back to the weather….28.2 here.

  36. Its been foggy where I am all day. Temps just above freezing where I am but a freezing rain advisory issued for my county.

  37. Here is the latest watchbox

    http://www.weather.gov/box/

    DETAILS

    Freezing Rain Advisory
    URGENT – WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE
    NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
    126 PM EST WED DEC 30 2015

    MAZ005>007-012>016-310230-
    /O.EXB.KBOX.ZR.Y.0007.151231T0100Z-151231T0800Z/
    CENTRAL MIDDLESEX MA-WESTERN ESSEX MA-EASTERN ESSEX MA-
    SOUTHERN WORCESTER MA-WESTERN NORFOLK MA-SOUTHEAST MIDDLESEX MA-
    SUFFOLK MA-EASTERN NORFOLK MA-
    INCLUDING THE CITIES OF…FRAMINGHAM…LOWELL…LAWRENCE…
    GLOUCESTER…MILFORD…WORCESTER…FOXBORO…NORWOOD…
    CAMBRIDGE…BOSTON…QUINCY
    126 PM EST WED DEC 30 2015

    …FREEZING RAIN ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM 8 PM THIS EVENING TO
    3 AM EST THURSDAY…

    THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN TAUNTON HAS ISSUED A FREEZING
    RAIN ADVISORY…WHICH IS IN EFFECT FROM 8 PM THIS EVENING TO 3 AM
    EST THURSDAY.

    * LOCATIONS…THE FOLLOWING COUNTIES OF MA…MIDDLESEX…ESSEX…
    SOUTHERN WORCESTER…NORFOLK AND SUFFOLK…INCLUDING THE CITIES
    OF…FRAMINGHAM…LOWELL…LAWRENCE…GLOUCESTER…MILFORD…
    WORCESTER…FOXBORO…NORWOOD…CAMBRIDGE…BOSTON AND QUINCY.

    * HAZARD TYPES…FREEZING RAIN.

    * ACCUMULATIONS…A TRACE TO A FEW HUNDREDS OF ICE ACCRETION.

    * TIMING…BEGINNING BETWEEN 8 PM AND 10 PM AND CONTINUING UNTIL
    3 AM.

    * IMPACTS…HAZARDOUS TRAVEL CONDITIONS. UNTREATED ROADS AND
    WALKWAYS WILL BE SLIPPERY ESPECIALLY BRIDGES…OVERPASSES AND
    OTHER ELEVATED PLATFORMS.

    * TEMPERATURES…IN THE LOWER 30S.

    PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS…

    A FREEZING RAIN ADVISORY MEANS THAT PERIODS OF FREEZING RAIN OR
    FREEZING DRIZZLE WILL CAUSE TRAVEL DIFFICULTIES. BE PREPARED FOR
    SLIPPERY ROADS. SLOW DOWN AND USE CAUTION WHILE DRIVING.

    DEB, you were very wise to be concerned about rain freezing tonight. Nice call.

  38. Why are we getting rain tonight and not more of a snowy event? Is the low tracking more over southern New England?

    1. Warm just above the surface. And the low is going well north of here anyway. The cold is trapped right at the ground.

        1. I stand corrected. Here are some standard heights

          Level Standard Height
          925 MB 2498 ft 762 m
          850 MB 4781 ft 1458 m
          700 MB 9882 ft 3013 m
          500 MB 18289 ft 5576 m

  40. Sorry if I missed this but will the temp be going up overnight or getting colder? Heat pump has met its match by trying to make it to the new year with no oil

    1. My house has also with no heat. I turned heat on in back of house for 30 minutes last night. In front it has only been on low at night for kids but it went on once during day yesterday

      I didn’t see if you answered as to whether your best pump is a mini split. We thought about installing two but even with heavy discount since SIL gets them at cost, they were too expensive. They are a great alternative to central air if a house isn’t set up to easily install it.

      1. Sorry no it’s not a mini split. My old house had a heat pump but also had the heat coils in the attic that erases the temperature limitation BUT it’s mad expensive to use it.

      1. Well we took an informal family vote and we are going to tough it out. Since tomorrow is in the 40’s the heat will work fine.

  41. Was in at Blue Hill today, I think I’ve mentioned I work at the observatory there (when not away at school) in various capacities. It was quite a sight today, with most surfaces covered in a thick layer of “hoar frost”. No one up there had ever seen anything like it. Here’s a couple pictures I took.

    http://i.imgur.com/wPVlfhv.jpg

    http://i.imgur.com/Rw4UPGo.jpg

    http://i.imgur.com/t3dHgjV.jpg

    The Wikipedia page on frost has a good section on hoar frost and how it differs from rime.

    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Frost

    2. Absolutely fascinating, WxWatcher. Thank you. Pictures are phenomenal. I’d never heard or seen it.

      Also, Very fun that you and Scott have worked together.

    1. Hysterical. I was on Linden St today for lunch at Capt Mardens. Tonight dinner from linden store. I promise if was not me. Took me an hour to clean my entire car so nothing would blow off onto car behind me. Mac vascilated between being amused and somewhat terrified by my reactions and perhaps off color comments when Driving through Wellesley. Entitled is their middle name.

      1. I could tell you stories about folks in Wellesley that would top this by a landslide. I was not kidding about my penchant for rage when driving through the town. And yes there are other places the same but there seems to be a concentration in that one town

  45. Thanks for your answer about the temps, everyone. I’m sorry I was right to be concerned about the freezing rain. I wish I had scraped off my driveway yesterday; it’s a skating rink right now. Hopefully, it will get better tomorrow. Maybe I’ll change my name to reallyreallyhatesice:)

    1. LOL. Daughters car just rolled off of our driveway. It was in park. It is in a place no other cars had parked so it slid

    1. I know the CNN headlines seemed excessive today. But having done some reading, I am not sure a first response to them should be negative. It is horrendous, Joshua.

    2. Good article, no relation to climate change which I commend. Sometimes this seemingly peaceful planet can turn into a living nightmare.

    1. Awful in so many places. Glad you post these. We are insulated in this country and sometimes forget (no one here) to look past our borders.

    2. I saw on TWC that the most recent storm that affected Britain, it’s center went straight north thru Iceland, continued north and had a plume of warm air ahead of it that had reached and surpassed the North Pole, where it was slightly ABOVE freezing (at the North Pole)

  48. I wonder when the last time KBOS had to deal with freezing fog. Such a whacky pattern, rather painful to forecast in.

    1. Yes, but the temperature is creeping upward ever so slowly.

      Was just out. Temp here was 31 when we went out. Just returned and
      it’s up to 32. Unless there is another drop, I suspect all will be fine in
      the City. Perhaps a different story in some of the burbs.

      1. Hmmm Logan was 30 at 7PM. Beverly 29. Blue Hill 28, about
        8 Miles due South of me. Perhaps my thermometer is off a degree
        or 2. I guess still need to watch.

        Rain is breaking out all over Eastern PA, SW NewYork and Most of
        New Jersey. It’s coming.

  50. In foxboro now. Temp 32 degrees. Came through the 495/95 interchange and temp was briefly up at 34. Seems to be warming up slightly. No ice in my travels through Wrnetham/North Attleboro and Foxboro on the main roads and in parking lots.

  54. Tom, it’s amazing how large the rain and wind shield was from “Frank.” North of Iceland is pretty far from the British Isles, yet rain and wind reached as far south as Kent in southeast England. It’s also amazing what you reported about the Low having transported warm air all the way to the North Pole. Sauna time for Santa, I guess. It’s been a long week for the old man.

  57. KBOX AFD 10:10PM

    LATENT HEAT RELEASE AND FORCED MIXING MAY BRING A SLOW
    WARMING OVERNIGHT WITH SFC TEMPS ABOVE FREEZING MOST PLACES BY
    MORNING.

    Forced mixing is a new term for me

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