Saturday Forecast

229 Comments

2:36AM

OVERVIEW…
We’re reaching a point in the ENSO cycle where El Nino is in its early stages of losing its grip on the weather, but not quite enough yet to completely let go. This is one of the reasons for a see-saw regime we’ll be in during the month of February, which started off quite warm (Boston being about 15F warmer than average for the first several day), will turn much colder for the coming week overall before moderating, only to head back to the cold side beyond mid month.

DAYS 1-5 (FEBRUARY 6-10)…
Watch for icy ground if you are going to be out in the early to mid morning hours today. Untreated surfaces will likely be icy! As it warms above freezing during the day and is dry, the icy areas will melt then likely dry off, though some remaining damp or wet spots that don’t dry off may re-freeze tonight. During this weekend a wave of low pressure will pass well north of the region and a weak disturbance trailing from it will bring some cloudiness today and again later Sunday. After this, a complex weather situation evolves in which a broad trough of low pressure takes up residence along the East Coast and a series of storms results over a fairly short period of time. Currently, the thought process is that the first of these will evolve into a large ocean storm Sunday night and Monday, moving a pretty good distance south and east of New England, but the storm bring large enough to toss back some moisture for at least snow showers and perhaps a period of steadier snow. As this system moves out, a second storm is expected to develop and track closer to the coast. It is unclear at this point how quickly this storm intensifies and its exact track and configuration. Therefore, the only thing that can be said with any reasonable amount of confidence at this point is that there will be a chance of snow/mix/rain for at least parts of the region for a portion of Tuesday into Wednesday. Much fine-tuning will be needed in the coming few days.
TODAY: Sunshine starts and ends the day but is interrupted in between by a period of cloudiness. Highs 33-40. Wind SW 5-15 MPH with higher gusts.
TONIGHT: Mostly clear. Lows 15-20 interior valleys, 20s elsewhere. Wind light W.
SUNDAY: Mostly sunny to partly cloudy. Highs 35-42. Wind W 5-15 MPH becoming variable.
SUNDAY NIGHT: Increasing clouds. Lows 18-25. Wind N to NE 5-15 MPH.
MONDAY: Cloudy. Chance of snow or snow showers. Highs 25-32.
TUESDAY: Cloudy. Chance of snow/mix/rain. Lows in the 20s. Highs in the 30s.
WEDNESDAY: Mostly cloudy. Chance of snow showers. Lows 15-25. Highs 25-35.

DAYS 6-10 (FEBRUARY 11-15)…
Cold with possible snow showers February 11. A clipper system may bring some snow or snow showers later February 12 into early February 13 followed by a blast of Arctic air February 13 into early February 14. Moderating temperatures but with a chance of snow/mix February 15, based on current medium range timing.

DAYS 11-15 (FEBRUARY 16-20)…
The colder pattern eases up and temperatures become more variable but mostly near to slightly above normal. A possible snow/mix event exits early in the period and another disturbance may follow that up rather quickly with additional precipitation chances.

229 thoughts on “Saturday Forecast”

  6. dave, can you post what the euro is showing for snowfall, for monday and then what it is showing for tuesday and the rest of the week.

    1. It’s been hinting at enough trough in the right place that storm development is essentially possible from Monday to early Thursday. It just remains to be seen what the details are.

  8. Have to watch these features closely for any shift changes as we get closer as we saw with our storm system.

  13. NWS discussion re: Monday System

    SUNDAY NIGHT-MONDAY… COASTAL STORM PASSES WELL OFFSHORE…SOME 4 DEGREES SOUTH OF THE BENCHMARK. NORMALLY THAT WOULD MEAN A SWING AND A MISS FOR STRIKE THREE. BUT HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS SOUTH FROM QUEBEC AND ESTABLISHES A PRESSURE GRADIENT THAT SHOULD BRING A NORTHEAST MARINE FLOW WITH DELTA OF 13-15C. THIS SHOULD AT LEAST BRING INCREASING CLOUDS OVERNIGHT AND MONDAY. LESS CONFIDENCE ON PCPN GIVEN MEDIOCRE FORCING AND CHANGING RUN-TO-RUN AMOUNTS.

    MODELS HAVE BACKED OFF ON QPF DURING MONDAY WITH MAIN FOCUS ON CAPE AND ISLANDS…POSSIBLY EASTERN MASS. WE HAVE BACKED OFF ONSET OF POPS UNTIL 06-12Z MONDAY AND VALUE OF POPS BY ABOUT 20 PERCENT. THIS STILL BRINGS POTENTIAL FOR SEVERAL INCHES IN EASTERN MASS WITH HIGHEST AMOUNTS CAPE COD/PLYMOUTH CO AREA.

    They “Appear” to be totally disregarding the NAM and going with GFS/Euro????

    1. This has tended to work for them in the past. I’d lean this way but I wasn’t confident enough when I wrote this update so I let the snow risk be more prominent in the Monday forecast for now.

  14. Thanks for the links. I thought more models were on board for snow next week but it looks like the NAM and CMC are the only ones with anyhing of significance. We shall see! Running out of time for Monday’s event. I’d feel better if the euro showed more.

    1. Agree and probably the reason the NWS has backed off some on Monday.

      We shall see IF there is any change with the 12Z runs.

      Wasn’t it the CMC that was first to start showing the possibility of
      yesterday’s system? I just checked. Pretty sure that was the case.

      1. In the past when the CMC has been the “leader” it’s often lead down the wrong path. Another reason for pause…

        1. Yes I understand that, BUT it has a partner, the NAM.
          What gives me greatest pause is the The Swing and Miss
          Euro. Previously that has shown a proclivity to throw
          some snow into Eastern sections. Now that has backed off.
          Unless it comes back on track all of a sudden here, I think
          we may have to kiss off Monday (caveat, UNLESS we
          get some ocean effect snow out it. That set up has to be perfect, so it is more likely we don’t even get that)

          Then after that, I am in CAMP NOTHING. Still time
          for Tuesday, so we shall see. Awaiting 12Z runs for
          new data. 😀

          1. Very good reasoning. It’s such a complex cast of characters on the table for the Monday-Wednesday time period that getting them all in place is not going to be an easy thing for any of these models to do at this point, and even closer to the event than we’d see in many other cases. But as you know we did speak about recent/current model difficulty in this pattern. Still amazing we can run these things and get a reasonably good idea of what’s coming. 🙂

            1. Indeed. I really enjoy looking over these runs and frankly I don’t think I can remember a period of time where there
              was such variability not along among the models but run-to-run for the same model.

              last night Eric was clear in stating that
              he didn’t think we would miss both chances (Mon and Tues/Wed). He was
              highly confident we would get at least one, with possibly both and likely NOT
              to miss both.

              We shall see.

              Also, Bernie is concerned, but he “could”
              just be out on one of his limbs.

              I think he backs off for Monday after
              viewing the Euro. OR perhaps he is
              MUM until the 12Z runs????? Who knows.

              1. There’s a scenario in which we could miss both, but I don’t think it happens that way either.

  15. I am feeling as though this up coming week we will not be seeing anything major. I feel the storm that would have given us good snow is going to form to late

    1. Matt to I post enough links to the Euro to get a feel for what’s going on?

      If you want to see anything else, just post. Thanks

      1. can you post the amount of liquid to fall as well? The euro run really did make a damper on things. Canadian and nam are known to over do amounts generally which makes me think if all the others show low amounts, we will be getting the lower amounts.

  16. Good morning and thank you TK.

    Thank you everyone else as well for the great discussion.

    Beautiful out there

  17. Which event holds a higher probability; Boston receiving more than 6″ of snow next week or Peyton Manning winning the super bowl?

    1. I hope manning is hit and hit often and is on the ground more than brady was. I hope he gets so abused out there that the coach decides to bench him, so even if the bronco’s do win, we can still say manning did not win the superbowl 😉

  21. 12Z NAM snow through Tuesday 7PM

    http://www.instantweathermaps.com/NAM-php/showmap-conussfc.php?run=2016020612&time=PER&var=ASNOWI&hour=084

    Tuesday storm

    http://www.instantweathermaps.com/NAM-php/showmap-conussfc.php?run=2016020612&time=PER&var=ASNOWI&hour=084

    Monday storm

    http://www.instantweathermaps.com/NAM-php/showmap-conusncep.php?run=2016020612&var=PCPPRSTMP_2m&hour=054

    A graze with Monday and a miss with Tuesday, trending towards a DOUBLE BARREL
    MISS.

  22. 4Km NAM wants to bring MONDAY system MUCH closer

    http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/nam4km/2016020612/nam4km_ref_frzn_neus_17.png

    4KM NAM for Monday

    http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/nam4km/2016020612/nam4km_asnow_neus_20.png

    So the regular NAM is almost out to sea and the 4KM NAM wants to Pound Eastern Sections? Higher resolution onto something here? OR completely OUT TO LUNCH???

    Curious to see if CMC follows suit. I know the GFS will not.

  23. Dave, I was afraid that we were only going to get one storm when it was all said and done, I believe we will have a couple of inches but not much. Mostly for areas east of i95 even if there is light snow for a long period of snow.

  24. Surprising to me how it looks increasingly likely that not much will come of the early week potential. We’re actually starting to get pretty good model agreement. Getting towards the “lock it in” stage. That first system is an absolute gorilla, but nowhere near close enough to be a big event for SNE. It looks like it will exert enough influence, however, to contribute to a lack of intense storm development in the following days. One of those winters I suppose, as expected. A surprise here and there, but by and large, the atmosphere does not want to snow. We’re already getting towards the low end of the consensus seasonal forecast though. And I still think 6″ of snow over the next week is doable, but it may take many hours and multiple different occasions of light snow, with little “upside” potential. Arctic blast comes in next weekend.

  25. Today’s AccuWeather Trivia Quiz.

    When a glass pane is exposed to very cold air on the outside and warm, moderately moist air on the inside, what type of frost can form?
    A. Fern frost
    B. Advection frost
    C. Rime
    D. White frost

    Answer later today.

  26. This NAM doesn’t tell us much yet as we are asking it to perform beyond its comfort zone. 🙂

  28. Still no power here in our corner of Andover. Had to go out and get some more gas for generator. It is very nice out, trees still covered in white.

  29. Pretty neat snow gradient very close to the ocean. About 6 inches at our house, but a couple miles east at Brant Rock, there is about 3 inches.

    With the initial rain that froze on the wires and trees, there are snow wrapped ice projectiles raining down on the roads this morning. I knew to expect a load noise and I still jumped when one of them hit my windshield.

  30. This next scenario may be less about surface low placement and more about ……. when or if there is a moist east or northeast 850 mb jet bringing moisture in off of the ocean.

    Between the high to the north and repetitive low pressure passing underneath us, I figure some snow from a moist flow at 850mb is likely at some point.

  31. I still think that beast of a storm has room to move more west and bring some significant snow. Models are still trying to figure things out. Whatever the case it looks like their are a lot of players on the field.

  32. There will be snow in the air next week. The big question is: HOW MUCH???

    Gfs has nothing big but lays down about 6 inches over 3 days.

    And I think Tom’s point about Moist flow. NWS is carefully watching that.

    We shall see about that. I’d feel better about that if we had a true arctic High feeding
    in and not a “pretender”. Even given that, the NWS said BUT HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS SOUTH FROM QUEBEC
    AND ESTABLISHES A PRESSURE GRADIENT THAT SHOULD BRING A NORTHEAST MARINE FLOW WITH DELTA OF 13-15C.

    That delta is enough to do the job. We shall see.

    1. The GFS even has that max snow bullseye from Boston southwestward into northeast Rhode Island. Usually, that’s a sweet spot for a moist NE flow.

  34. I can see where snow starts to develop Monday in eastern sections and perhaps its continuous for 48 hrs and within that time frame, there are pulses of steadier snow, interspersed with light snow, snizzle and flurries. And over a long 2 day period, areas get an advisory or warning snowfall, but perhaps it’s easy to keep up with due to the long duration.

    1. That appears to be reasonable, with a lesser chance of something heavier.

      Curious to see what the CMC and Euro have to say.

    2. i would like to see what the euro has to say but I really do not think much accumulation will fall on my snowfall scale. I do not think anything more than a 2 out of 5. (light snowfall.) from Monday through wednesday.

    1. He said this about 1/2 hour ago

      Eric Fisher ‏@ericfisher 34m34 minutes ago Boston, MA
      Definitely would be on guard for snow in all of eastern Mass for Monday. Has been the way things have headed so why buck the trend.

  37. Ok, add another model to the SNOW camp, SREF.
    Here is the 9Z SREF 12 hour snowfall ending 4 PM Monday. Pretty good thumping
    here:

    http://www.spc.noaa.gov/exper/sref/gifs/latest/SREF_SNOWFALL_MEAN12HR_f060.gif

    Surface Monday morning at 10AM

    http://www.spc.noaa.gov/exper/sref/gifs/latest/SREF_PMSL_MEAN_SD_f054.gif

    Here are the member spreads for that system, monday at 10AM

    http://www.spc.noaa.gov/exper/sref/gifs/latest/SREF_Spaghetti_Low_Centers__f054.gif

  38. Big astronomical tides begin Monday, so there is importance for coastal areas that the intense ocean storm track fairly far out to sea.

  39. Crazy morning for us. Fire department had us turn off our power due to the live wire in front of our house. National Grid finally pulled the line up and now we are waiting for an electrician. But it looks pretty out here. 🙂

  46. 12Z Euro Takes 3 mighty swings and totally misses on 2 and fowl tips the 3rd.
    !@(*#!@*()#&$*@^#&$^&@#^$&^@&^$&@^#$^@&*#$^&@^#&$^&^@#$

    Blah blah blah blah blah

  47. euro sends second storm further south with the first one staying curse of the last run. this really does kind make me think we are not going to have a big system

  48. At least I got six inches yesterday.
    Rooting for the 12z GFS since that shows some accumulating snow Tues Wednesday.
    If you are a snow lover root for the short ranges models.

    1. I was chatting with the rep from Dell yesterday (I did end up ordering a Dell). He is in Tennessee and was very excited we were getting snow. He said they received nine inches a few weeks ago and that everyone was like little kids playing in it. He sounded quite young himself. He also said that his friends are envious that we get to enjoy snow regularly.

  50. I have no idea why you keep saying not many will smile. Charlie, with all due respect, would you please stop talking for others and just talk for you.

    I love springing ahead. I love spring. I will be thrilled when we do both. I will be thrilled when summer arrives and fall arrives, and we fall back, and winter arrives once again. I pray I will be able to enjoy many more of those cycles. I’ve never been one to rush to the next stage. Even if I had been, I learned that wishing time away is not a good thing because life is far too short.

  51. 12Z UKMET is in camp MISS

    http://meteocentre.com/models/explorateur.php?lang=en&map=na&run=12&mod=ukmet&stn=PNMPR&comp=1&run2=12&mod2=ukmet&stn2=PNMPR&hh2=072&fixhh=1&stn2_type=prog&mode=latest&yyyy=latest&mm=latest&dd=latest&hh=048

    12Z French is closer

    http://meteocentre.com/models/explorateur.php?lang=en&map=na&run=12&mod=arpege&stn=PNMPR&comp=1&run2=12&mod2=arpege&stn2=PNMPR&hh2=060&fixhh=1&stn2_type=prog&mode=latest&yyyy=latest&mm=latest&dd=latest&hh=048

    German is camp MISS

    http://meteocentre.com/models/explorateur.php?mod=dwd_icon&run=12&stn=PNMPR&hh=048&map=na&stn2=PNMPR&run2=12&mod2=arpege&hh2=048&comp=1&fixhh=1&lang=en&yyyy=latest&mm=latest&dd=latest&mode=latest&stn2_type=prog&date_type=dateo

    JMA is camp miss

    http://meteocentre.com/models/explorateur.php?lang=en&map=na&run=06&mod=jma&stn=PNMPR&comp=1&run2=06&mod2=jma&stn2=PNMPR&hh2=054&fixhh=1&stn2_type=prog&mode=latest&yyyy=latest&mm=latest&dd=latest&hh=060

    http://grib2.com/jma/CONUS_JMA_1000-500_SLPTHKPRP_48HR.gif

  52. Everybody should use caution out in the yard as it is a very dangerous situation out there trees dripping everywhere . Couldn’t get into my neighborhood last night from one side as s tree took out two cars in the persons driveway , knocked wires down and blocked the road. I’m sure you all heard about the girl who lost her life well in that same town last night it happened agin with a man and he is in grave condition . This is a serious post to use caution and to say there is a real danger out there now with the ground this soft please use caution .

      1. I don’t what to make out of the whole situation.
        Without digging deeply and just looking at results of the
        Global models, it looks like virtually nothing, other than some
        nuisance light snow/showers. BUT if you listen to Eric and Bernie and TK, and couple that with some of the mesoscale higher resolution models, one has to pause. I don’t know, I really don’t know. I have to be careful not to go with what I want. But I have this feeling Eric and Bernie are wrong this time. We shall see,.

  55. Right now and things could change I don’t see a major winter weather event but rather nuisance snows.

  56. Latest 15Z SREF hot of the presses.
    12 Hour snowfall ending 4PM Monday.

    http://www.spc.noaa.gov/exper/sref/gifs/latest/SREF_SNOWFALL_MEAN12HR_f054.gif

    Still pretty far off shore. I am just wondering IF the high Res models are
    picking up on what Tom suggested, mainly ocean snow?????

    http://www.spc.noaa.gov/exper/sref/gifs/latest/SREF_PMSL_MEAN_SD_f051.gif

    low systems Member locations

    http://www.spc.noaa.gov/exper/sref/gifs/latest/SREF_Spaghetti_Low_Centers__f051.gif

  57. Could this be a situation like March 2013 low pressure so far away yet enough of an ocean fetch to bring snow back into at least eastern areas despite low being so far away.

    1. Look at the precipitation the 12Z NAM throws back to the coast

      http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/namconus/2016020618/namconus_ref_neus_15.png

      12km Nam snow, run total

      http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/namconus/2016020618/namconus_asnow_neus_29.png

      4Km NAM

      http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/nam4km/2016020618/nam4km_ref_frzn_neus_14.png

      4Km NAM snow ending 1AM Tuesday, so this is essentially the Monday event
      only

      http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/nam4km/2016020618/nam4km_asnow_neus_21.png

      Hmmm the higher the resolution, the more precip. Is it ocean snow they
      pick up and the globals are not? I do not know

        1. If the Great Lakes feature weren’t there …. then I don’t think the coastal storms precip shield would extend so far north and west …… But it is going to be there …. and I do think it’s upper level support is drawing that moisture further north and west. And having that high in northeast Quebec doesn’t hurt either.

          It’s a swing and a miss if we’re tracking the actual low pressure, but it might be a hit still for being a moderate precip producer.

          1. You hit on one of the things Bernie was saying.
            He said that he does not look at the models surface placement and precipitation, he looks at the 500MB and he says it looks like precip WILL back in, despite the actual model output showing OTS.

            I have to think that there is some sort of feature
            (one or both of what you mention and/or others)
            that the high res, short range models are seeing
            that the globals are Not. It is not just one short
            range, it is ALL of them to one degree or another.

            I wish TK could speak to that.

              1. 😀 Cool. I am so happy you are here and set up this blog.
                We know more by coming here than any other outlet around and/or possible.

                AND THANKS

                AWESOME!

      2. If ALL the higher res, short range models are picking up the same thing, then don’t ignore them. That would be my advice. Don’t necessarily buy them straight out, but give them some good weight.

  61. Short range models won two weeks ago with the blizzard of 2016 for NYC and Long Island. Will they have another victory here.

  62. I’d appreciate it if you could share your positive news (and believe me most people agree, it is wonderful positive news) without taking that jab at the bloggers here. I’m really getting tired of it.

    You can come on every day and do a countdown to Spring. I don’t care about that. It’s weather-related, and it’s something you enjoy. Just stop taking the shots at the “rest of us”.

  63. Getting a suspicion some of are going to be doing some shoveling and plowing Monday and again Wednesday. Tuesday may be a “caught-in-the-middle” day. 😛

    I’m not convinced of this yet, but I’m leaning this way…

    1. Tk,

      Glad you chimed in. Does this have something to so with what
      Tom and I are discussing? Are the Short range models onto something?
      Or are you getting more convinced that what Eric and Bernie and yourself
      were concerned about haviing the storm get sucked back in by negatively
      tilting 500mb feature? OR a combintation? Thanks

  64. I know John commented on it earlier ….

    Tomorrow is a very important day on the south shore.

    There is a lot of heavy snow on trees and not a lot melted today. If we’re going to add more early next week, I hope some melts tomorrow because there are a lot of trees filled to their max and will not bear much more snow on them.

  65. Early thoughts on snow from system #1:
    3+ northwest of Boston, 5+ Boston southeastward. Lots of time for adjustment either way.

    1. The whole 6th grade is supposed to bus Monday to a theatre about 7 miles away to see The Finest Hours movie. It is our one book, one school book for the year. Casey Sherman, one of the authors, lives in Marshfield and one of his kids goes to our middle school. I hope steadier snow holds off til noontime. I have no desire being on a bus on snowy roads.

  66. We’re pretty close to being within 36 to 48 hrs of precip starting up again, I wonder if the NWS’ afternoon update will include any advisories or watches ….

    Also interested to see an update on their 10:30 am snowfall projection map.

    2. I expect a winter storm watch for at least SE MA by this evening. Again watch, alluding to the possibility of 6+ inch snowfall, but not necessarily imminent. They will have about 24 hours to upgrade or downgrade, or issue an advisory.

      1. Base on their map, it would be South shore, the Cape and Islands. In on of their discussions, they indicated that the watch criteria was for 50% or greater chance of 6 inches or more.

  68. It’s not a huge core of cold, but it’s a serious core of cold that may move right across New England around Valentine’s Day. It doesn’t last long but it may be quite a punch in the teeth when it’s here.

      1. I like the arctic wave that precedes it on Friday and possibly a secondary front on Saturday.

      1. My front yard looks like we had a hurricane. I have so many limbs covering the yard. Managed to get our power hooked back up but the Comcast cable is still on the ground and they can’t come out until Wednesday. Don’t they know there is a Super Bowl on tomorrow?!?!?!? Good thing the Pats aren’t in it.

    3. Hah no. I was outside removing loose snow/ice before re-freeze tonight. I just got in and am looking things over.

  71. Charlie, we all understand you like Spring, and it’s fine to remind us of this. Many people love Spring, including winter lovers like Vicki. But, wishing the snow away just doesn’t sit well with me on a day like today. I was out and about. It was spectacularly beautiful this morning BEFORE it started melting. I bumped into a couple from Ghana. They had never seen snow before, and could not stop taking pictures. When I told them that all the snow from the trees would melt soon they looked disappointed. They didn’t want it to melt. I later spoke to a Brit who reiterated what I’ve heard so many times from people from the British Isles over the years. “If only we had real winters like you do. … All we get is rain and dreary days for the most part.” To many, the snow and cold we get in New England is what attracts them to this region. Foreign visitors marvel at our seasons. Most people in the world do NOT have 4 distinct seasons like we do. We are blessed in this regard. Furthermore, snow and ice feature prominently in art, just as palm trees and coral reefs do.

    2. Amen Joshua! I so enjoyed seeing my stepdaughters reaction to seeing snow for the first time last winter after they moved here from Jamaica. It sure made me appreciate it more.

    3. Yeah but with anything else it’s easy to like it when you don’t live with it. Someone visiting here on vacation only sees the best of snow…I assume they aren’t shoveling, etc. I use to love snow until I bought a house…and lile rain, it’s become my enemy ha. For example I hate excessive heat but if I was visiting Jamaica I wouldn’t mind it. My two cents but good perspective!

    4. How many emails did you get today stating their happiness with melting snow?

      You know that it’s not rocket science. People who enjoyed watching the snow fall the other day were not surprised at the fact some of it melted today, and more of it will melt tomorrow. Most Winters are not like the stretch we had last February, where it fell, and fell, and fell, and fell, and piled up, and up, and up, and only settled a little bit. In fact, more of that snow evaporated than melted because of how cold it stayed. That’s the exception rather than the rule. We know that. The snow lovers on the blog already are well aware more people would rather not see it than see it. It’s just a repeat of the same thing over and over. Whether you like snow or not is not the issue here. Many of the people on this blog enjoy the process of tracking the weather, trying to figure out what may or may not happen based on the tools available. And here they have a great opportunity to do that. They don’t owe anybody anything, in terms of being held accountable for their forecast. They are not official on-air mets giving forecasts that people are making decisions over. They’re having fun with a hobby. It’s time to just let them do that without reminding them how many people want Winter to end. Well guess what? Winter will end when it’s over, like every other year.

  75. With this Gil Simmons tweet something is up since just like TK he does not hype anything. Best meteorologist here in the state of CT in my opinion.
    Another snow & wind episode trying to organize for CT Monday. Will be watching this low off SE Coast tonight-tomorrow

  76. I’ll work 500 hours this week no problem as long as I have Saturday to take my parents , wife and son out for a nice dinner Saturday night and if I can push it a Completely snow free weekend as I have the holiday off but it never seems to workout during the winter .

  77. I will want to see tomorrow morning runs before I change my mind, I would also like to see the placements of the three pieces of energy is tomorrow. as well. I am still leaning toward a light snowfall. less than 4 inches for most. over the monday to wednesday time frame. I want to see the 00z runs.

  82. TK – Based on your current thoughts, does this mean that Tuesday will be a dry day between storms? Which storm will be the bigger snow producer?

    1. Not dry wall to wall, but it may have a significant break, even some partial clearing.

      I’m not sure which system will produce more. It may depend on where you are. System 1 may produce more from Boston south, while system 2 may be a more interior producer with a mix on the coast. I’m just not sure how that one evolves yet, if much at all.

  83. I suspect the 00z GFS will bring more precip/snow into southeastern New England.

    Orientation of this low is going to have the precipitation about a quarter of the way on the “wrong side”, putting it more easily into this area.

    1. With the Monday system, I’d lean heavier Pembroke over Boston, but maybe not all that different.

  85. nam 12k hour 60
    http://tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/namconus/2016020618/namconus_asnow_neus_21.png
    nam 4k
    http://tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/nam4km/2016020618/nam4km_asnow_neus_21.png
    If the nam 4k was right. look at the winds
    http://tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/nam4km/2016020618/nam4km_mslp_uv850_neus_17.png
    with astronautical high tide this would be really fun to see but I would be worried for those who have property on the coast. Also can someone say power outages.

    Canadian is unfortunatly the closest global to the nam and other short range models.
    http://tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/?model=gem&region=neus&pkg=asnow&runtime=2016020612&fh=54&xpos=0&ypos=477

  87. One thing that MAY be missed here, depending on the set-up: A 3rd low pressure area.

    #1 bombs out, #2 gets pulled east and is a miss (largely) but a #3 may form on the trough that extends back to the west and develop for another risk of steadier snow sometime Wednesday. Not a lock scenario but a possibility.

  88. Current temp in Boston: 32F; current temp in Norwich, Vt.: 34F

    That’s unusual. On a relatively clear night Boston is usually 10 degrees warmer than Norwich, Vt. My guess is Norwich has no snow cover, and Boston has snow cover, which again is unusual.

  89. Charlie, see the post above please, and also answer me 2 questions:

    Have you given the people that tried to get on the blog and were “denied access” my email yet? I asked you to do that so we could find out what the issue was.

    Also, I asked before but I don’t believe you answered. Our of curiosity, what name did you post under on the WBZ blog?

  90. Funny that the NWS isn’t using their max/min snow maps to go along with the most likely one. Maybe they’ll start them later, but you have to figure they’re too nervous to try it now. It’s certainly not because “snow is ongoing in our forecast area” (which is what the current explanation is for why the maps aren’t up). For a storm like this, the max/min range is literally like 0-30″. I can’t fault the one map that they do have up though. However, I feel pretty confident that the global model suite has a better handle on this one. The 24-hr HRRR confirms this as well as it starts to get into range. Just a grazing. 1-3″ for Boston. Little northwest of there. 3-5″ southeast MA. Really, the only thing that will allow any precip to get into SNE is the sheer size of the storm. A real monster. Normally one passing this far southeast is a complete miss.

    2. They had them up briefly earlier today. The min had basically all 0 except a small area of <1 over southeastern MA, and the max had pretty much 8 inches plus everywhere. 🙂 Shortly after that, they were gone.

    1. That is about .63 inch qpf for Boston and it is not done.

      Looking at the map intervals, we have 1 mm + 5 mm +10 mm = 16 mm.
      16mm = .63 inch

      Sharp gradient East to West for sure. This is a 2.5 km resolution model.
      IMHO, it cannot be ignored.

  93. Mike Wankum = 1-2″ inland/2-5″ Boston S&E
    Bri Eggers = 1-3″ inland/3-6″ Boston S&E
    Barry = 1-3″ inland/3-6″ Boston S&E

    *Wankum is favoring the lower ends of the totals
    *Barry noted that if storm #1 is stronger, then storm#2 weakens.

    These totals are not particularly impressive and it seems that TK is the jackpot for now. Usually it is the other way around if anything.

  94. Latest runs of the nam are much less. Both the 4km and the 12km cut their 18z amounts pretty much in half

  95. Just shows they are still trying to figure it out even though it’s only about 36hrs out. I have to say we need to keep a close watch on that 1st storm. It’s a very powerful storm and any shift 50-100 miles will be huge.

  96. We must have had light snow. Cars have very light coating

    But the sky is what is truly amazing. It is so clear and crisp and pure. The kind of sky you only see in winter

    1. Heavy frozen dew/frost.

      What snow melted today left some moisture in the air and its condensating. Our cars are covered too 🙂

  98. I wouldn’t be surprised if there is a lot of “nowcasting” more than anything else much of next week. It may be difficult to know where exactly any ocean effect snows will set up.

  99. This is reminding me of another winter where storms seemed to be written off
    Only to come back and whack us good. Lots of folks here in pembroke still have no power there saying maybe noon time tomorrow . So lucky here as I’m not far from outages at all. Lost yesterday for like an hour

    1. Hope those folks in Pembroke get their power back soon.

      I was on 3A north to almost to Scituate and while it was beautiful, it was also scary looking at all the trees sagging down overhead of the road.

  100. The GFS shows low level cold air draining into New England from that northeastern Quebec high.

    -5C inland surface temps, meanwhile 5C out in the ocean east of Boston.

    Circulation on outer edge of big ocean storm with cold air draining in from Canada.

    Perhaps a nice coastal front with snows coming from that convergence.

    1. Then after that …. a piece of the Great Lakes energy cuts underneath and keeps that moist flow going ……

      I like this because it’s not an easy clear cut scenario with a big storm.

      Looks like lots of little smaller scale items to try to figure out and time.

      1. And yet a THIRD lobe of energy Thursday, I believe, that would offer more opportunities for snowfall ……

        Fun stuff ……

  101. It’s definitely fun to watch and see how everything plays out. I’m still concerned about the storm on Monday moving further west. Will see…

  104. Love the explosive noreaster on the 0z GFS bombing out over NYC and then retrograding into the Great Lakes on the 18th……?!?? That might happen.

    Regarding this week, not high at all on the Monday ocean storm throwing much back at us, and I will be surprised to see much of anything here in CT. Tuesday thru Thursday though, I think one of those lobes of energy trying to develop south of us is going to become more significant than what the GFS is currently depicting. I’m still high on the threat around the 16th as well. Going to be an interesting couple of weeks ahead of us.

  105. dave can you post the snow maps for monday, tuesday and Wednesday on the euro and also the amount of liquid.

  106. Good Morning.

    A Winter Storm Watch has been posted for eastern MA for Mon-Tues. Seeing TV met snow maps with 3-6″ for inside 495. Less north and west and a possible southeast MA pocket of 6-8″.

  107. Good Morning Again.

    Now seeing a Coastal Flood Watch and immediate Boston area totals of 4-7″.

    There will be some quizzes today.

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