Sunday Forecast Update / Storm Primer

161 Comments

8:12PM

IMPORTANT THINGS TO REMEMBER…
* When viewing a map on TV or the internet or reading my ranges here on the blog, pay attention to the snowfall forecast range, NOT just the top number! Assuming the forecast is correct, you will receive anywhere from the bottom number of the range to the top number of the range, and most likely something in between.
* Do not wake up first thing Monday morning and say “Where’s all the snow?! They are wrong again! I wish I could be wrong 90% of the time and still get paid!” Not that most of you would say the last thing. 🙂 Remember, the storm is forecast to take place over the course of the day and into the evening. It will take time for the snow to accumulate.
* The term “blizzard” has NOTHING to do with snow accumulation. A blizzard is defined by 3 or more consecutive hours of winds frequently 35 MPH or greater, and visibility of under 1/4 mile in falling AND/OR blowing snow. It technically does not have to be snowing to have blizzard conditions, though a true ground blizzard is fairly rare in this part of the country, and more common in the Plains.

DAYS 1-5 (FEBRUARY 7-11)…
Cold front drops down from northern New England to supply some colder air tonight and Monday as low pressure deepens into a very strong and very broad storm system well offshore to the south and southeast of New England, but large enough to throw a significant shield of snow back into southern New England. A Winter Storm Warning is up for the WHW forecast area and a Blizzard Warning is up for Plymouth County of MA as well as all of Cape Cod, Martha’s Vineyard, and Nantucket. You can find the definition of blizzard above. The main time frame for the storm Monday will be from the pre-dawn hours to early evening in areas south of Boston, and from around dawn to mid evening from Boston north. A boundary, called a coastal front, is likely to set up early in the storm from near Boston southward through southeastern MA and down toward Cape Cod. East of this line, relatively milder air will mean a wetter, pasty snow to start, and with some trees already stressed from recent snow, there may be some additional trees and power lines coming down. West of this line, the snow will be a lighter and drier variety. This line will push to the east during the storm, and areas that start with wet snow will transition to a drier snow. Strongest winds will be found in coastal areas, especially southeastern MA (details to come below). Minor to moderate coastal flooding is likely at high tide times, especially along east-facing and north-facing shores. After this system moves beyond the region, the trough remains along the East Coast and additional energy will spawn another low which will be smaller and weaker than its predecessor. It should come close enough for some snow across parts of the region and I’ll fine-tune this tomorrow. Additional snow showers will be around both Wednesday, from the lingering trough in the area, and Thursday, from the passage of a cold front.
TONIGHT: Clouding up. Snow arrives South Coast pre-dawn, may be mixed with rain at first. Lows 18-25 southern NH and interior MA, 25-33 coastal MA to RI. Wind light NW to N.
MONDAY: Overcast. Snow spreads northward and any mix near the South Coast turns to snow. Heaviest snow and blowing snow will occur over southeastern MA. Blizzard conditions are possible from Plymouth County of MA through Cape Cod and the Islands. Temperatures start out near 20 northwest of Boston and stay there, and fall from the lower 30s into the 20s to the southeast. Wind NE 15-35 MPH with higher gusts. Wind gusts may exceed 45 MPH along the coast especially south of Boston.
MONDAY NIGHT: Mostly cloudy. Snow tapering off from south to north. Total snow accumulation… 2-5 inches Boston west and north, 5-9 inches southeastern MA into RI. Blowing snow reducing visibility at times. Lows 15-22. Wind N to NW 15-25 MPH with higher gusts.
TUESDAY: Mostly cloudy. Isolated snow showers day. Clouding up with a chance of snow at night, especially southern areas. Highs 25-32.
WEDNESDAY: Mostly cloudy. Chance of snow early, favoring southern and eastern areas. Another period of snow possible at night. Lows 15-22. Highs 28-35.
THURSDAY: Variably cloudy. Chance of snow showers. Lows 15-22. Highs 25-32.

DAYS 6-10 (FEBRUARY 12-16)…
Small clipper system brings cloudiness and a chance of a little light snow or a snow shower February 12 then opens the door to a shot of very cold Arctic air for the weekend February 13-14, easing up by Presidents Day February 15. A system from the west brings a chance of snow/mix/rain by February 16.

DAYS 11-15 (FEBRUARY 17-21)…
Some precipitation for at least part of February 17. Fair and colder February 18-19 followed by a warming trend February 20-21 with mostly dry weather continuing.

161 thoughts on “Sunday Forecast Update / Storm Primer”

    1. Did you read every word. I’m going to give you a quiz to be sure…

      Question 1 …who wrote the blog?
      Question 2….what were rhe first four words

      😆

      1. Charlie and “it won’t snow much”

        Just joking with you Charlie…I am a fellow winter hater ha

        2. Clarify: snow hater. I actually love winter cold like Joshua. Love love love cold days. I have still been in shorts since the summer. Outside of shoveling I haven’t wore long pants all season.

    1. Enough schools will be closed and people will telecommute that the PM drive won’t be as bad as it would have been about 15 years ago. 🙂

  7. Anybody seen a satellite picture of the storm? I saw a few Twitter post, pretty f’ing impressive. I have a feeling there will be some suprises

  8. Thank you TK. Silver Lake district is closed and we are having a conference call at 5 am to make decisions for the bank. We cover such a large footprint now so the decision is not an easy one.

    1. For where . I was kind of surprised you had the 8-15 from boston down to here. Isn’t it to be worse down here with not as much in the city compared to here , I mean still a lot in the city I think.

      1. For all areas. If you’re in a 4-8, closer to 4. If you’re in an 8-15, closer to 8. Anything is still valid but I think the majority will end up on the lower side of the range with the higher amounts the exception rather than the rule.

          1. For the South Shore yes. Lower to the north. I’m going to chop it back a bit. The storm jogged east in the last few hours and lost a whole lot of its potential.

  10. Lots of schools closing. Will be curious to see what framingham does. You’d think since he blew it last week, he’d be extra careful this week. But he has a history of doubling down when he is wrong.

    1. Andover just closed, seems a bit earlier for north shore. I’m supposed to get up early and drive to Mt Airy in Pennsylvania…bit worried about that

  11. I loved half time show. No idea who anyone was but the message I got is we are all in this together ….no matter who we are, what we believe or where we are from…..maybe wishful thinking on my part but an awesome message

      2. The general consensus on my FB feed is that it “sucked” but people say that every year. I liked it alot. Not sure what people are expecting. 😛

        1. I have also seen a lot of negative posts also. I just got my mifi working so at least I have internet now. Will have to see if I can find it online.

          1. Part of our problem is that we never look at the big picture.

            But doesn’t matter. On the scheme of things it won’t change a thing and I am happy…..maybe has a bit to do with the chocolate martinis too

        3. I hear that every year too. Don’t know how …as bad as things are in this world right now….you don’t embrace the idea we are all in this together or to believe in love but then maybe that is why this world is where it is. Sad

  13. So, is it officially time to back down? looks like it to me. 0Z NAM continues the 18Z trend. Show at most 6 inches or so for Boston. None of this foot crap.

    Except where there is wind, looks like a WIMPORAMA to me.
    another TEASE.

    3. Needham and Brookline, who didn’t cancel last week, cancelled already. Hope they didn’t jump the gun.

  14. Anyone else think the commercials are weak? Most of these I have seen on standard tv viewing…nothing memorable.

      1. I’ve seen ads for diarrhea, constipation, police tv shows, and a drink driving speech I could do without out.

      2. I always like a number of commercials. They have been a bit lame the past two years but there were some really good ones last year.

  15. Framingham just cancelled. They never cancel night ahead unless major major storm so I suspect he is u sure because of last week. I admire that.

    1. Are all these school systems jumping the gun on this one? Especially now that the models are trending lower.

  18. In this particular case, I think there was enough uncertainty to hold on cancellations until the morning.

  19. Ooooooof. That Denver D is unreal!

    Btw – Peyton has zero to do with this win. Zero. Lady Gaga could be at QB and they’d still be winning. Von Miller is the mvp here.

  20. If they had not made 2 points and score stayed same, Mac would have won $200. His company surprised me on Friday by sending me an email that showed a square for Mac they had added in their pool with a heart around Macs name. Win or lose, it says so much about how they all thought of Mac.

    1. She wanted the Panthers to win. She does not like Manning and she
      wanted the Panthers to win for Michael oher.

  25. It’s going to snow tomorrow, nothing has changed.

    The real story is what side of the coastal front does Boston and SE Mass end up on ??

    If it’s SE of the coastal front, then watch out for possible power outage issues. If the coastal front ends up south and east and it snows in the 20s, then maybe we get through this ok.

  26. Not sure if anyone read TKs updated numbers in his post. TK–if you’re right there will be a lot of superintendents with egg on their face.

    1. Seems you may be right. But We were thinking back for the time my grandson has been in school…five years. And then I went back to timely kids were in public school. 18 years. I count one for each with egg. I’m always in favor of being safe. And parents need to plan for care as well.

      1. Yup. Plenty of flexibility left in June. It’s not always the number of inches. Sometimes it’s the road conditions and I have a feeling in eastern Mass, wet conditions will end up icy conditions.

  29. Well Harvey still has plenty of double digit snows on his map for Cape Ann and the South Shore, so there you go. 😉

  30. Sue, Tom, this is your storm. Well, it seems that every storm is nowadays. How many times have we declared the South Shore the jackpot area in recent years? Very often.

  31. I only watched bits and pieces of the Superbowl, and did not see the pre-game ceremony for Superbowl MVPs. Is it true that TB was booed? That’s shamefully ignorant if confirmed.

      1. Joshua news confirms he was booed. One report said perhaps because of so many bronco fans. Do the morons recall who was one of the first to speak out in support of manning when the new drug charges came out.

  32. could the new models be saying the ocean enhancement is not going to play a big role in this storm after all or are they missing it.

    1. It’ll be there, just limited. A lot of dry air coming in on the back side while this thing goes by.

      1. that was what I was afraid of when people were talking about ocean enhancement, I remember the last time we had a big storm with talks of major ocean enhancement and yeah the enhancement helped areas along the coast, but when you got inland the amounts dropped like a rock because of very cold dry air coming in from the north and west.

    1. I think most of the mets will on TV and then get a bunch of scrutiny for it. when its only half the amounts

    1. Woke me up! Ferocious wind making whistling noises in my house. Am I missing something on radar? Storm looks pretty shunted south and not that impressive.

      1. I’d say it’s tracking about where it was projected to be.

        We’ll have to see where this northwestern edge makes it to and of course what happens when the colder air in Maine, points north and east starts traveling over the ocean and then into eastern Mass.

  37. I couldn’t help my self, Woke up to strong winds. Measured wind gust of 50mph… winds are being consistant in the mid 20s… the problem, Its from the north not the northeast which I think is going to be a problem when it comes to snow accumulation

  39. Good morning and surprise surprise it is NOT snowing!!!!!!!!

    Radar is not impressive and it is having trouble moving NorthWestward.
    ALL models are down to the 3-6 range or so. Euro is actually one of the more robust
    of the models and even that tops off at about 7 inches.

    Wind from 46 degrees at the airport, which is perfect, but NOTHING is happening.
    NO Ocean Effect Snow. Wind gusting to 40. It was not mentioned at all, but I have
    read that IF the wind is too strong it can Limit Ocean/Lake effect snows. Plus I;m not sure the proper delta is in place between ocean temp and 850MB. Should be about
    13 C or more. Right now it is about 11 or 12 C.

    1. We shall see. NOT impressed by anything at the moment. In fact I am
      very disappointed but not surprised based on the model trends.

      Got a call from my boss last evening as she was hearing we were getting a foot.
      I told here that the “official” forecast was 6-10 inches (NWS the last I looked).
      She told me to prepared for a call this morning. Right. Sure!
      We watched Harvey last night and he also said 6-10 inches.

      NO CALL THIS morning. How could there be when it’s NOT SNOWING!!

      Maybe the office will close early if it ever gets as bad as predicted????

      We shall see.

  42. At this rate of NW progress, IF it makes it to Boston, it will be about Noon time. 😀
    UNLESS we can some ocean snow to break out.

      1. From NWS office

        SNOW SHOULD REACH A TAUNTON TO PROVIDENCE LINE BETWEEN 5 AND 7 AM…THEN A BOSTON…TO HARTFORD…TO WORCESTER LINE BETWEEN BY 7 OR 8
        AM.

        Oh really????

        1. More…

          THE STRONG FORCING IS SIGNIFICANTLY LOWER IN THE
          ATMOSPHERE THAN USUAL AND MORE SUBJECT TO MESOSCALE
          FEATURES/NUANCES. IN THIS CASE…THOSE WILL BE OCEAN
          EFFECT/ENHANCEMENT ALONG WITH INTERACTIONS NEAR THE COASTAL FRONT.
          ALSO…EXPECT SOME SUBTLE UPSLOPE ALONG THE EAST SLOPES OF THE
          WORCESTER HILLS.

          THE MAIN IDEA HERE IS THAT GIVEN THE STORM PASSING WELL SOUTHEAST OF
          OUR REGION…MESOSCALE PROCESSES WILL PLAY A GREATER ROLE THAN A
          TYPICAL NOREASTER. THIS MAKES THE SNOWFALL FORECAST QUITE DIFFICULT
          AS EXACT AMOUNTS MAY VARY CONSIDERABLY OVER SMALL DISTANCES.

      2. 630 AM UPDATE…
        MAIN CONCERN WITH THE UPDATE WAS TIMING THE ONSET OF PCPN. SNOW HAD MADE IT TO THE CAPE AND ISLANDS. THE LEAD BAND MOVES UP OVER SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND THIS MORNING…BUT STARTING 1-2 HOURS LATER THEN PREVIOUSLY THOUGHT.

    1. Yes I am, because it is looking less and less. Could there be a surprise?
      I guess there could be. Not liking the way it looks.

  44. These are the surprises in weather. I’ve just liked how this has evolved. Let’s see how the band setup before we say bust! Just because the models say one thing doesn’t mean it’s gospel. It’s now casting! One thing is for sure I wasn’t expecting the wind like this so early.

    1. TJ, you are so correct about that.

      Right now I sure hope we get at least 8 inches in Boston so people
      don’t look foolish for their decisions. I don’t want any public officials, School officials, or business executives to be embarrassed by any closing decisions they have made. I hope it gets bad enough to have warranted those decisions.

      He he he I just got a call from myself announcing that the office is CLOSED today. Pretty funny actually.

      1. Awesome! Yes I completely agree I was a bit nervous last night about how schools were going to look if we didn’t get the snow but I’m confident they made the best chose.

  45. It’s only 20 not too far North at Portsmouth NH, with 23 in Lawrence.
    Logan was 30 and a bit North at Beverly, it was 28.

    Where is the ocean snow?

  46. I just got a big surprise. My boss called and asked me to record and send out a robo
    call informing employees that the office is CLOSED today. I am really surprised.

    But I won’t complain about that. 😀

  47. IF I am not mistaken, I “think” I see on radar the first streamers of ocean snow coming in down around Hull, Hingham, Quincy and Braintee and close by towns.

    1. I’m just not convinced we get 8-10. If we do, yes, that is fine, a good snowfall.

      If it ends up being 4 inches, it is a colossal DUD, imho.

  49. The snow seems to be sneaking up the coast. It’s like it is pinwheeling/tilting NW
    along the coast, while not making as much progress more to the West.

  51. Tiny flakes in the air in Hanover. Along with leaves, tree branches, garbage barrels and a cat. Very windy.

  59. Detail forecast for Boston:

    Today: Snow, mainly after 9am. High near 30. Windy, with a north wind 23 to 28 mph decreasing to 17 to 22 mph in the afternoon. Winds could gust as high as 45 mph. Chance of precipitation is 100%. Total daytime snow accumulation of 4 to 8 inches possible.

    Tonight: Snow before 9pm, then snow showers, mainly after 9pm. Low around 18. North wind 7 to 14 mph, with gusts as high as 25 mph. Chance of precipitation is 100%. New snow accumulation of 2 to 4 inches possible.

    Tuesday: A chance of snow showers. Cloudy, with a high near 30. North wind around 6 mph. Chance of precipitation is 50%. New snow accumulation of 1 to 2 inches possible.

    Tuesday Night: A chance of snow showers. Cloudy, with a low around 20. North wind around 6 mph becoming light and variable. Chance of precipitation is 40%. New snow accumulation of 1 to 2 inches possible.

    1. Man hate that forecast. Would rather get a foot and get it over with than nightly additional accumulations you have to move around as it will be cold.

  60. So is this just its behind schedule reaching us or for every minute it’s not here we get less snow?

    1. Interesting question.
      That all depends. If it is because the storm is farther out, then it could
      mean less snow. If it means the storm has slowed down, then it does not
      mean that. We just don’t know

      IF I had to take a guess, I would guess less snow.

    1. Question…I know this was said to be a monster of a storm but it looks small on the radar. Is part of it just not displaying or is that it?

      1. its display, they actually have no radar that is past that area. Its actually much larger, look at satalitel. The higher cloud base is where the precip will be generally speaking, more to it than that but you can get an idea

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