Monday Forecast

463 Comments

7:40AM

DAYS 1-5 (FEBRUARY 8-12)…
Big ocean storm just too far out for a big hit, so we’ll call this a hard side-swipe, and stay similar to the snow forecast from the last update. Wind will be pretty strong and coastal flooding at high tide times is a threat. Second storm late Tuesday to early Wednesday looks weak and snow should be limited, favoring southeastern areas. Still some snow showers possible as we transition to colder air late week.
TODAY: Overcast. Snow spreads northward and any mix near the South Coast turns to snow. Heaviest snow and blowing snow will occur over southeastern MA. Blizzard conditions are possible from Plymouth County of MA through Cape Cod and the Islands. Temperatures start out near 20 northwest of Boston and stay there, and fall from the lower 30s into the 20s to the southeast. Wind NE 15-35 MPH with higher gusts. Wind gusts may exceed 50 MPH along the coast especially south of Boston.
TONIGHT: Mostly cloudy. Snow tapering off from south to north. Total snow accumulation… 1-3 inches north central MA into south central NH, 3-6 inches Boston area west toward Worcester then south to northern RI, 6-9 inches southeastern MA into southern RI. Locally heavuier amounts are possible. Blowing snow reducing visibility at times. Lows 15-22. Wind N to NW 15-25 MPH with higher gusts.
TUESDAY: Mostly cloudy. Isolated snow showers day. Clouding up with a chance of snow at night, especially southern areas. Highs 25-32.
WEDNESDAY: Mostly cloudy. Chance of snow early, favoring southern and eastern areas. Another period of snow possible at night. Lows 15-22. Highs 28-35.
THURSDAY: Variably cloudy. Chance of snow showers. Lows 15-22. Highs 25-32.
FRIDAY: Variably cloudy. Chance of snow showers. Lows 15-22. Highs 25-32.

DAYS 6-10 (FEBRUARY 13-17)…
Fair weather over Valentines Day / Presidents Day Weekend but very cold February 13-14 and less cold February 15. A system from the west brings a chance of snow/mix/rain by February 16-17.

DAYS 11-15 (FEBRUARY 18-22)…Fair and colder February 18-19 followed by a warming trend February 20-21 with mostly dry weather continuing. Next threat of unsettled weather comes late in the period.

463 thoughts on “Monday Forecast”

  2. Thank you TK. Our office is closed today. IF we ONLY get 2-5 in Boston, that decision
    is going to look pretty Silly. Decision based on the Governor and what he has said along
    with the NWS forecast which STILL has HIGH numbers. I just wanted to tell my boss do not close as there will not be all that much snow today, but I’d lose my job if
    I were wrong, so I just let here make her own decision.

    OH Boy, in this particular case, I hope you are incorrect.

  5. Very fine misty snowflakes out there right now, blowing all around and not accumulating. Impressive thin band setting up shop well to the south over Fall River/New Bedford area

  6. Thanks TK. Beautiful satellite images this morning, amazing storm.

    Looks very likely at this point though that this will fall into the “moderate” snowfall category at best for most, save for maybe the Cape. Most forecasts missing high as opposed to low this time. Something never seemed right to me about those short range models showing 1″+ QPF over much of eastern MA. I can understand why people bought them, they’ve generally had a good winter, but not so much this time.

  7. My wife works in Boston and leaves the house around 5:30. She got all the way to work to find out they cancelled. Didn’t think to call since they didn’t cancel Friday.

  8. What might save the snowfall projections away from the coast are high ratios. The HRR showed a 10:1 and Boston might get up close to 15:1

  15. Who stepped on the gas? The snow is REALLY making a rapid push to the NW.
    Was I not able to perceive this before? OR has the storm made a turn and that
    is why the snow it progressing faster? I do not know.

  17. I’m a little confused as to why so many schools and workplaces are continuing to close this morning.
    I can understand why some made the call last evening (which I don’t totally agree with), but to do so this morning with new info on lower snow totals??? are we missing something?

    1. I don’t understand. I think people are afraid of making the wrong decision, so
      the err on the side of caution.

        1. I am with you. I don’t want to see all those people embarrassed, and most especially my boss, who is
          a super lady. I really want this snow to pan out.

    1. I think we are seeing that on radar.
      The snow has moved about 30 miles in the last 1/2 hour. Previously it
      was moving perhaps 15 miles in an hour. SOMETHING has changed!!!

  24. Been up 10 minutes or so …..

    Just escalated from very light snow (perhaps 3 miles visibility) to a wind whipped frenzy of snow (visibility of 1/2 mile). Did that transition in a minute or two.

    A wet, pasty snow. Our north face windows are all wet.

    The wind is impressive and with an 11.2 ft tide in 60 to 90 minutes, I hope the coastline makes it through ok.

  25. No snow here in Billerica, I think about 11am I will see the first flakes, 12pm steadier snow, but I am looking at radar, Looks like the snow is starting to fall from a line from plymouth to Providence to New haven CT
    With the first moderate to Heavy band over the Canal and reaching the south facing shores of Mass and RI.
    Light snow on radar is starting to make it way up to Boston. I believe around 9am Boston will see its first flakes.
    I am also seeing a bend in precip over the ocean which to me tells me ocean enhancement s starting to head to Cape ann

  27. Good morning and Thank You, TK.

    Just my opinion——I don’t think anyone would be criticized for cancelling for this. The governor declared a state of emergency in several counties. If workplace heads cancel work, then they are following his lead. There seems to be a lot of last minute adjustments to this storm and its affect on us. My sense is that because it is over the ocean, it is more difficult to tell what it will kick back.

    I am a believer in erring on the side of caution. A days work can be made up. A life or a serious injury cannot. It is just one day.

    My soapbox is yet to be covered with snow since we have not seen a flake here (except me), so I thought I’d give it a try 🙂

    As an aside….Framingham admittedly blew the cancellation by announcing too late last week. Wayland didn’t cancel at all on Friday. Parents were furious as I think they should be. However, Wayland has been well known for years for not cancelling. Last night both towns cancelled historically early. At least they are listening and perhaps will now use common sense and use middle of the road responses.

  28. Hey Tom keep the updates down there coming as I’ll check on here when possible . We started at 5 everything is gassed up parked and ready to roll . Also everything has been salted . Just been kind of spitting here . I’m not in agreement with some of the boston numbers out there. If I was forced right now to guess a number I’ll say 10″ and I’m sticking with that. Everybody be safe, be aware of your surroundings and have some fun.

  29. Moderate snow.

    Snow is pinging off the window. Went outside and appears there’s graupel.

    It’s a thick, fine, misty snow.

    Street is now snowcovered.

    1. Awesome!
      Intensity slowly picks up here. Ground now all DUSTED white with fresh snow.
      Immediately covering streets, walks and cars.

  30. Some of the local stations are reporting heavy winds in this way. I had thought they would be heavy along and not far from coast but will they reach Framingham?

  31. Nothing to report in Woburn yet…my 9 year old asked where the snow was and I told her it’s coming but nothing so far and she says “they (TV meteorologists) always say that but it’s never true.” HA.

  32. SNOWING pretty hard here. Instantly vis dropped like a rock just as Tom described.
    Nearing moderate snow now, vis 1/2 to 3/4 miles.

    1. Here as well, been like this for about a half hour now. Maybe 1/4 accumulation so far but i think it will be tough to accurately measure with this one with all the blowing around.

  36. snowing since 7:15 in East Bridgewater. strong winds, light/mod snow
    about a 1/4 inch right now
    streets covered

      1. Agree. This nowcasting is fun.

        That radar coupled with Satellite loop indicates that dropping
        the numbers “may” have been premature????
        I dunno, higher numbers are beginning to look possible.

  39. HOLY CRAP BATMAN, visibility just dropped UNDER 1/2 mile, nearing 1/4 mile.
    MODERATE, borlderine HEAVY Snow at the moment here.

  40. Report for the observation indicated North, but I see another report that the
    wind is from 22 Degrees OR NNE which could still bring in Ocean Enhancement.

  41. 9:22 and nary a flake in North Reading. I cringe when people use terms like “nanny state,” but with all the premature cancellations today, it seems that’s exactly the kind if state in which we live. This kind of chicken little mentality didn’t exist even 10 years ago. I honestly think a lot of it is driven by social media.

    1. very true that the morning conditions weren’t a problem up your way.

      I wonder what the afternoon conditions might be like. Still might not be too bad or perhaps it will be 🙂

        1. I just can’t understand 3-4 inches of snow over an 8 hour period being enough to close schools the night before. It’s maddening to me and it never used to happen. Just one more example of how soft our society has become.

      1. Remember the 12 and 4 KM NAM runs are assuming ratio
        of 10:1 and we believe the ratio is more like 12 or perhaps even
        15:1.

    1. I find this signal interesting of how far back the shield of accumulating snow extends. It’s a signal on all of the models for a few days now.

      Of course, when I look at how low the dewpoints are inland, it gives me pause.

      But, this snow shield just seems like it should expand well inland later on based on these accumulation projections ………

  48. Just starting to snow here. Some schools in my part of the state dismissed early other closed. Tough call and glad I am not the one having to make those decisions. Damned if you damned if you don’t

  55. Curious to know the Cape’s snow totals the last 4 years. Generally, the Cape has significantly less snow than Boston and other parts of the state. It seems that in recent years, the Cape and of course South Shore have been the hardest hit with almost every storm. Remarkable.

    Did someone say wind? I ran 5 miles this morning and faced a challenging wind throughout, especially as I ran along the river. Really brisk, almost blew my head band off my head.

    Still cannot believe people booed Tom Brady. One has to be a complete moron to do that. I am sorry to be blunt. I can understand booing if Tom was actually in the game. But not if he’s part of a pre-game ceremony to celebrate all the MVPs of the 50 Superbowls. There were and are players I don’t like on other teams, but I always respected them (from Reggie Jackson to Guy Lafleur, and from Magic Johnson to Derek Jeter to Peyton Manning). These guys earned our respect. They’re great athletes, just as Tom Brady is.

        1. Did the announcers mention the HGH allegations once during the broadcast? If they did it must have been during one of my many bathroom/beer breaks. Last year they definitely mentioned deflategate.

          1. It never comes up…ever…and is a much more serious allegation than what Brady had to deal with. Manning even sent PI’s over to that guys house (or his parents house) dressed as cops (the guy who leaked the story I believe)…if Brady did that it would be all over the news.

    3. Agree re: Cape and south shore snow jackpots. When was the last time central and northern NE the jackpot winner of a big east coast snow storm? I cant even remember.

    4. The Super Bowl crowd is never indicative of a true football fan demographic anyways so I don’t put too much stock into the boos. Bunch of rich corporate ass hats who think its “cool” to boo

  56. Moderate snow in Halifax right now. Roads are covered but not terrible yet. We closed our Cape branches at 10:00 am due to the conditions there as well as the possibility of the bridges being closed at some point due to the high winds.

  59. I remember when we used to laugh at 4 inches of snow and school would never be cancelled and businesses never would be closed…….now, people see a snowflake and it’s batten down the hatches, get the bread and milk, and close everything. And if you don’t close school then parents will be on Facebook for a week lobbing nasty bombs at the superintendent. Sometimes I really miss the old days.

    1. Agree. Too many lawyers now. A kid slips, sues the school, etc. Dumb if you ask me but guessing that’s part of it.

  61. You can clearly see the Ocean enhancement in northern Plymouth county/Norfolk county, These are the areas that I would want to watch for the highest amounts.

  63. 10 Am obs from logan was temperature down to 20!!! BRRRR
    Wind North gusting to ONLY 29, way down from earlier.

    MODERATE snow with vis 1/2 mile.

    Sounds about what I have been seeing. Perhaps I have been a tad conservative high
    with my vis estimates, but I try to be real.

    1. An it is variable. Vis might be 1/4 mile one minute and the next it is 1/2 mile
      and the next 3/4 only to go back to 1/2.

  65. As a parent of a 6 year old who now rides the bus to after school without seatbelts, I am all for closing school based on how many cars on the road, people texting and driving etc… My child’s safety is more important to me than anything in this world. We don’t live in the 70’s and 80’s with less cars and less stupid people driving. I am always sorry that others suffer bc of schoold being closed but I would put my childs life ahead of anything in this world.

      1. Many do not have them. However, those that do, do not enforce the children wearing them. We have had them in Framingham for several decades. When they had the bus accident a couple of weeks ago, if any kids were wearing seatbelts, it was only a few.

      2. seat belts on school buses is a hot topic and there are two groups because of different results of tests/research on the matter

  66. Snow switch finally got turned on where I am. It has picked up and snowing pretty close to a moderate clip. Wind is gusting.

  67. Fine flakes but accumulating.

    I just moved my car. The snow is squeaky snow…..very dry. If there is any ice underneath it due to last weeks snow and melting yesterday, it is extremely slippery.

    Please be careful.

    1. This is the type of snow that squeaks under your ski boots when you’re walking your skis closer to the lift to put them on 🙂

  68. Flooding will be a big story with this too. We still have time to go to high tide and our streets at work in Quincy are flooding from the marsh more than I have seen it in recent memory.

  70. Wow, has it ramped up !!!

    Whiteout, S+, visibility 1/4 mile or less.

    I am driving down the end of my street to see if I can get pictures of the marsh, which with wind like this, tends to turn into a lake at high tide, which is now.

    2. I was wondering if there was any true S+ conditions out there, looks like i got my answer. Enjoy Tom! You will be the jackpot winner i think for this one.

  71. I don’t care what the 10AM Logan obs said, it is just light snow here now. Very steady but lighter with vis 3/4 to 1 mile.

    2. This is the exact same map they had up at 4:30 AM. They haven’t changed anything, at least in Eastern sections. I haven’t compared the maps with
      a magnifying glass.

  75. Light to moderate steady snow in Manchester CT with a fresh coating of snow on all surfaces. We have been under the snow on the radar for 6+ hours now and it just started accumulating about an hour ago. The dry arctic air coming in from the NW is going to continue to try and eat away at this. I was surprised to see that the NWS actually expanded the WSW’s west into northern CT this morning.

    1. I didn’t get that move by NWS out of Upton and Taunton to put winter storm warnings for Harford New Haven counties. The advisory was fine.

  79. Some pretty bad pictures of flooding in Humarock on FB. The posters are not very specific about where they are but that area – and all along the south shore – has had so much damage these last years.

    1. Yes. I have a colleague posting on Facebook. Her house is surrounded by water that has overflowed the marsh. Thankfully, their house is up on stilts a few feet off the ground, as more and more are doing the past few years.

      1. The houses we rent are raised. The owners told me you cannot have insurance if they are not. I believe they have a place to park cars away from the flooding area.

      1. I don’t mind hybrid terms as long as ppl realize it’s not some new, bizarre, never happened before thing.

  86. JJ, looks like the NWS is catching on – they just downgraded Hartford County to an advisory. There is some good banding on the radar in both western CT and eastern CT but we are caught in a lighter zone here in between in the CT river valley.

  88. Not too bad in Natick. Had to get my 4 year old out of the house so he’s running around the mostly empty hallways of the Natick Mall.

  89. Checking back on an old post of mine at 10:30am, that’s when the heavy band made it to Marshfield. Nearing 11:30am and it’s still moderate to heavy with crazy blowing snow. If this keeps up for 2 more hours until 1:30pm, then I’d offer Marshfield will have met blizzard criteria.

  90. Not to jump the gun, but did anyone see the 0z Euro for Saturday? It blows up a coastal storm and is a direct hit with widespread 9-12″ across southern New England and pockets of 12″+ in CT.

    It appears the Euro is an outlier with this one as the 6z GFS and 0z CMC send this system well out to sea. Something to watch though.

    All models showing a decent sized system middle of next week as well.

  92. At work here in Norwell. Visibility has been between 1/8 and 1/4 of mile for the past 45 minutes or so. Very windy. I would estimate about 2 inches or so have fallen since about 8:30. Roads are covered here and very slippery.

  95. Watching some local coverage.

    Parts of Morrissey Blvd in Dorchester are flooded and closed for now.

    Looks like moderate flooding in Marshfield and Scituate. Thankfully the tide is headed out.

  99. Too bad if that storm materializes over the weekend I won’t be here.
    I did notice the 0z EURO showing another low pressure system for middle next week as Mark mentioned.

  100. FedEx just dropped a couple of packages here. He said it is starting to get slippery. I would expect that will just continue to get worse.

  101. Been snowing almost three hours…nothing to report. Dusting on street but plenty of bare spots so far.

    1. Agree. It’s been snowing but not much accumulating. Good inch, perhaps a tad more here and that’s about it.

  102. 240 hrs out on the GFS, which would be Thursday of the following week …..

    Shows a 1032 mb high in southeast Canada with plenty of cold air in New England.

    So those 40s the following week are …… in fact, out there ….. in the Carolinas.

  103. Its been snowing in Quincy heavy for a couple of hours. Don’t know the snow totals but snowing pretty heavy here.

        1. We do some insist on staying with higher numbers?

          AND, What do you make of the stronger banding signals on radar disappearing???

          1. Not sure why.

            Different degrees of lift across the trough result in the variations in banding.

    2. If this verifies than i give NWS props, but at this point that map should be max amounts and not likely

  108. These futuremap radars that are on the TV weathercasts have bands of snow hitting the south shore continuously through tomorrow and a good part of tomorrow at that.

  109. Just staring at the radar loop.
    Greens are slowly getting lighter.
    It may snow, but of a lesser intensity.

    My feeling is that the storm is already past the mature phase and
    is beginning to weaken and thus the wind fields are slackening and the precipitation
    intensity is backing off.

    Different story if storm were still intensifying. Not sure this was properly
    taken into account.

  110. Maybe a little more than an inch here in North Reading at noon. Light snow right now and not accumulating rapidly at all.

    1. Really? Much less in Woburn…would have thought we would have more than you in North Reading. Agree though it’s been very light!

  111. Patience, patience, patience for those to the north and west.

    Even I have to admit the models have been good lately.

    They all seem to be showing another 3 to 6 inches coming, let’s see what you have by midnight tonight. Long duration event. 🙂 🙂 🙂

    1. Tom, please look at the NEXRAD radar loops.
      SOMETHING is going on. Echoes are getting weaker.
      I don’t care how long it snows, without enough intensity there is no
      accumulation.

      It could snow for 24 hours and accumulate 3 inches.

      Frankly, I am NOT Impressed. I had one brief burst of heavier snow
      that made it look interesting, but alas, it was yet another TEASE from
      Mother Nature. The higher totals AIN’T HAPPENING!!

      1. I hear you ….. It is a good observation. I just wonder if some bands may still redevelop or intensify the remainder of the afternoon.

        I may also be being swayed by the moderate to heavy snow down here, which is ongoing. Guesstimating 3 inches.

  112. Why is northshore and particularly northeastern mass is under a lull. We always get the lighter green in radar, my town of Reading always sits under those lighter echoes, maybe tk can explain why but it’s frustrating!

  116. These two mini storms that book-ended the weekend are polar opposites in terms of snow type and temperature. Friday was a `warm’ storm with wet, pasty flakes. Had a March feel to it. Today’s is a `cold’ storm with tiny, `dry’ flakes. Has a January feel to it.

  119. Light, blowing snow outside my office window. The kind that accumulates about an inch every 8 hours. Looks nice, though.

  120. Funny still really not doing anything…and there is a bright spot in the sky in my yard. I know the sun won’t poke out but it has that look like it’s about to.

  123. half about a half inch of snow on the ground, There has been light to moderate snow even periods of heavy snow, Could not see past 2 feet, since about 1030am, This is they tpoe of snow that looks like you should be getting a lot of accumulation but you are not, Winds have backed down …

    I saw a question about why does the northeast seem to be in a lull. it is very typical for the Merrimack Valley (interior Northeast mass to have very fine snow that does not accumulate or the snow turns off entirely as snow builds up at the Worcester foothills and east of i95 very typical and I was thinking this would happen. Rememember many are including tonight with accumulation, Even though it could be lighter, it could accumulate a bit more.

  125. That’s pretty intense, believe it or not, compared to downtown Boston where we might have gotten .05 of an inch the last 45 minutes.

  126. Nevermind, back to more of the same lazy snowfall. Every time it looks to be picking up it goes right back.

  129. Heavy band of snow now engulfing RI and into east central MA. Other than that, bands not strong, even the ones over the fish are weakening

  130. Just no intensity to the snow. None whatsoever.

    We are coming up on 2 inches. Haven’t measures, just guesstimating by
    looking out very carefully, especially my deck where I can readily see.

    I see some yellows reappearing through RI up into South Central Ma.

    Otherwise, radar is looking stripey with various colors of green, mostly of lighter shades.

    1. I think u had mentioned it above, but it appears this thing reached peak intensity way long ago, as in when it was off the coast of FL. Since then it has been transitioning and weakening hence the lack of heavier snow bands coming in off the ocean at this hour. Expect short lived broken lines of heavier snow from here on out.

      1. Indeed I did. Has to be at least part of the problem, if not
        all of it. The Arctic air could be succeeding in eroding away
        all of the precip, slowly but definitely SURELY!!!!

    1. Hopefully businesses and schools that closed learn from this. I already sent Woodshill.net link to the superintendent of schools in our town and told him he should rely on this blog for his forecast and to help him to determine when schools should be closed. Today definitely was not one of those days.

    2. Yup. We should have known, we get our best snows when storms are intensifying as they get here, this one got here as it was weakening.

        1. Yup, a lot was stacked up against this one. The Cape still made out well but even there will vastly under perform.

    3. Question…looking at the radar…is this almost done or is there more I don’t see coming? Been hearing it will snow all the way into tomorrow.

  137. Steady light snow continues where I am. Good band of snow just west of me on I -91 corridor. Snow having no problem sticking with temps in 20s.

  138. What I thought could happen, did happen, the more northerly direction, kept bands from getting a strong hold and accumulating. What did accumulate was small flakes when it really came down which condensed once it contacted the snow previously on the ground

  142. 12z euro does have a system for saturday but it is no longer that big. 1000mb storm compared to the 988 it had in the past run.

    2. The euro lately seems to be schizophrenic. It’s run to run variability has been troubling. If it’s more than 3 or 4 days out, i wouldn’t put too much stock.

  143. That’s the same dry slot that’s been in this area for the last hour. How much do you have so far JJ?

  144. Snowing harder now with big flakes, the last of the darker green bands hanging
    in there. Nothing to get excited about. 😀

    2. They did give up on northern CT and just downgraded all 4 counties to an advisory. Snow has been light here pretty much all day. Maybe 1.5″ new on the ground here but did not measure.

  146. what is your though about the little system for Wednesday
    http://tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/gem/2016020812/gem_mslpa_us_10.png
    http://tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/gem-ens/2016020812/gem-ens_mslpa_us_9.png

    http://tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/gfs/2016020812/gfs_mslpa_us_9.png
    http://tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/gfs-ens/2016020812/gfs-ens_mslpa_us_9.png

    http://tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/ecmwf/2016020812/ecmwf_mslpa_us_3.png
    http://tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/namconus/2016020812/namconus_mslpa_us_16.png
    http://tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/?model=rgem&region=us&pkg=T850&runtime=2016020812&fh=48&xpos=0&ypos=530
    http://tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/?model=wrf-arw&region=us&pkg=T850&runtime=2016020800&fh=48&xpos=0&ypos=141

    What do you guys think, could the Wednesday system becoming stronger/give us more snow.

  147. As Matt said, 12z Euro still has the storm Saturday but doesn’t get its act going until it is too late. Looks like a 1-3″ or 2-4″ deal on that run.

    Still wants to bring a loaded system up here middle of next week but its an inside runner and would be a lot of rain. 12z CMC has a similar solution. GFS has a totally different look – colder with a clipper system passing through.

  149. Snow coming down at a good clip again. Looks like bands to the south and east are dissipating but bands now lining up to the NE and moving SW from the north shore to about the canal. If these bands stay there between now and tonight we COULD get a lot more, but that’s a big if

  150. TK, are we looking at more snow chances this week or is today pretty much it for chances of anything significant?

  155. snow band all the way up to to Maine are moving from the gulf of maine, west to southwest, Could this mean snow continues from a different direction, Could this mean we do reach the ranges. could get interesting late afternoon and evening. If they make it down, there is also some ocean bans forming in the gulf of Maine moving southeast. This will purely be ocean enhancement and probably could increase snowfall across coastal northeast mass. (essex county)

  156. This storms appears to be drying up on the radar…when does this end? Will it go past midnight or tomorrow morning like some sites have claimed?

  157. Downtown and the snow is definitely getting stronger. I thought it was over an hour ago. Strange behaving animal this storm.

    1. The wind has shifted back to the Northeast instead of the North. Precip is now starting to move in from the northeast.

    1. TK said to watch out for the mesoscale features and this wouldn’t behave like our normal snowstorms, so that is what I think we are seeing with the fluctuating intensities.

  160. Weird indeed. It is snowing moderately in all of western CT and has stopped completely in eastern CT. I would never have imagined that JJ would end up with more than me for this storm.

  161. Son in law just closed his business. He NEVER closes – even on many holidays. His employees are on the road for service calls and have had a couple of close calls. He also never complains about the driving. He said from Wellesley to Framingham that the driving was not good. Framingham was the best of the towns but still dicey.

    The amount of snow doesn’t always determine the risk in driving and walking. There was not even a quarter inch on the ground when I had trouble walking this morning. Not sure why this snow is more slippery than the snow we had the other

  163. I will add that, working with as many banks as I do, that they take their responsibility to their customers and their employees very, very seriously. I can guarantee the decision didn’t come easily and that it was made with their responsibility to both in mind.

    And in this day and age, any banking that needs to be done does not require an open branch so it should not be a problem.

  165. Mark did not think I would get into some of those moderate bands today and one going on right now. A little more than expected here. As soon as plow comes by snow is covering the road right back up.

  167. Now starting to see 2 distinct bands setting up over the 2 forecast jackpot areas, one over cape ann and the north shore and another down by plymouth and marshfield. If they persist those areas might get to the lower end of the forecast range.

  168. Agree with you, Vicki. It’s not about the amount of snow, and should not be. Roads were generally better on Friday than they are today. Yet, we got more snow on Friday. I just came in and the side roads, sidewalks, and some secondary roads are not good. Much worse than on Friday. In fact, they’re icy rather than slushy due to the cold temperatures.

    1. Thank you, Joshua. I was wondering if it was because of the cold temps. The snow that was falling when I was out earlier also had a ice feel. Not at all moist.

  170. You never know where those bands will setup shop. What the radar is showing of eastern CT is what I thought it would be showing over my area in western CT>

    1. Nasty bus accident in Madison, CT today. The report said 30 injured with 6 critical. Bus was on its side in the photo.

  171. Quite a bit of energy out in the midwest….Very expansive…..looking at the Intellicast US radar loop… snow recently pushed into eastern NY state. Also noticing the band inside 495 intensifying with the same thing happening in western ma. The in between also has begun to fill back in. Really interesting event. Also noticed the the NAM tried to develop the spoke of energy on Wednesday a bit more, we’ll see if its on to something there

    1. Please tell them Vicki said you can go home 🙂

      Thank you, John, for all you do to keep the hospitals accessible. As you know, Mac and I learned very well last year how important it is.

  173. 4:30 p.m., about 3 inches in North Reading. I am embarrassed by all of the local TV stations who have special news broadcasts on now to cover the “storm.” Every video of a major roadway shows bare pavement, yet they are making it seem like it is so dangerous out there. I just have no tolerance for this hype and BS as I get older. WBZ had on Peter Judge from MEMA. What the hell? He basically said there are no problems throughout the entire state. Then, the nimrod news anchor asked him if he thought schools would be in session tomorrow. My wife and I turned to each other and at the same time said, most schools should not have been closed today. It’s just insipid.

      1. No, but the Governor did make a big deal of this, urged people to stay of the roads, etc. I know it’s damned if you do and damned if you don’t in these cases, but we need to stop being a nation of wimps.

      2. Baker also closed the roads. If you recall, Deval asked people to stay off the streets, and they did not. That forced him to place a ban. Also, remember, that the neighboring states did not close roads and they were a mess with abandoned cars on the highways. Both Baker and Deval made calls that were proven to be very wise.

        1. Closing the roads last year was wise. Telling people to stay off the roads today in 2-3 inches of snow was not wise. That’s all I am saying.

          1. the type of snow that it was today mel was a low amount but the powdery nature of it mixed with cold roads, equals snow covered road ways, Roads in billerica been being plowed all day even though it looks like only about 1 to 2 inches fell. it is not always about the amount, its the type, Honestly i believe if it was not so cold this could of actually been more snow, The snow was squeaking under my boots, which means it was dense and compacted.

    2. Mel – please see some previous comments from folks who have been out and about. The driving in many areas is bad. Buses do not limit themselves to main roads and highways. Most, if not all, towns have more side streets than major roadways. The driving is worse today than it was Friday. The amount does not always determine the risk. In my opinion, Most schools should certainly have closed today.

      1. Again. I have to agree 100 percent with Charlie. Been out and about here in the North Reading area and absolutely zero problems. Again, it all gets back to the “give every kid a trophy” society in which we now live. We have gotten beyond soft.

        1. Let me tell you that in the Norwell, Rockland, Hingham, Hanover area the roads are pretty nasty. At 2:00 Route 3 northbound betwen Hingham and Weymouth was snow covered and nary a plow in sight. The big wide hill leading up to South Shore Hospital was a mess and cars were fishtailing. As TK has said many times just because the weather is fine in your spot of New England doesn’t mean it’s the same 35 miles to the south.

        2. I don’t believe keeping kids safe compares with trophies but that’s ok – everyone is entitled to his or her opinion.

  175. AND to top it all off today, the NWS NEXRAD RADAR is DOWN for MAINTENANCE??
    Really? today??? maintenance???? I think it crapped its pants and they are just
    trying to fix it!!

    !()@*#*(!@#&*!&(@*#&!*@&#*&!@*#&*!@&*#&!*@#&*(!&@*(#&*(!&@#*!&@*(#&*(!&@*#&!*&@#*&!*@#&*!@&#*&!*(@#&*!&@#*&!*(&@#(*@#&*!#@

    2. That’s just a wobble and these types of systems do that often. I’d say no real surprises with this one. 🙂

  177. Looks like the opposite of earlier today…earlier the radar was drying up, now it’s filling in.

  178. Old salty I’m out in the field give it to me straight . Not doing anything here now , is this thing going to pick back up or is it done. I think I’m here all night . My wife said its snowing pretty good at home

  179. 2.2″ so far at Logan.

    According to Barry, 1-3″ for Saturday morning. Is this the same storm the Euro had this morning but was the outlier?

    1. It is Philip. Euro is most bullish on the Saturday event though it has backed off from the major coastal it had on the 0z run last night.

  180. Charlie, I can assure you that the decision to close your bank was not an easy one. A lot of banks in the south shore area did not open at all. The majority of your bank’s operation centers are located in areas that are getting hit harder than you.

    1. Absolutely accurate. I wish we could get past the world we see outside of our window and understand that people make decisions based on many areas and they make them with the best intentions.

  181. Love all the Monday morning quarterbacking on openings vs closings …..

    I mean, at decision time BEFORE the storm begins, if your town is under a winter storm warning, with a consensus forecast of 6 to 8 inches, most of which is forecasted to fall today, then, what is the decision maker supposed to do ?? Be able to go against all that information and say …… No, this ones going to be a dud and we are not canceling.

    Now, that would have worked today, but are you comfortable that it would work EVERY time ?

    2. I may not always agree with decisions that are made. For example, I think some could have waited until this morning to decide. But regardless, you are 100% right.

    3. I guess the thing that bugs me these days is the need to cancel school the night before. When I grew up and then when I had young kids school was always canceled early in the morning. Now, it seems that it has to be cancelled the night before. I don’t get it.

      1. Mel it is not those days. Many parents had one person who stayed at home. Also employers who now bow to the almighty dollar are far more strict with parental leave. Parent…at least responsible ones which most are.. have to make safe arrangements for their children’s care. Framingham did not make the decision in time last Friday and it created many problems …some of which made it unsafe for kids. I repeat. When anyone makes a decision based on the best interest of my child or grandchildren, I will never fault that person

    1. It developed very rapidly and these were the types of variable conditions we had talked about. It’s over me now, too.

  184. OK LISTEN UP…

    The same arguments every time.

    You can second guess decisions and have whatever opinion you desire, but here’s the thing. If you’re in charge of making a decision about school, work, a bank, or whatever, you have a certain time to make the decision within, someone to answer to above you, people that are going to be unhappy with you no matter what your decision is, and you have to go by what you assume to be the most trustworthy information you can get. There may be problems in the media, but that does NOT change the issues that people making these decisions face. It’s NOT BLACK AND WHITE. Get that straight before you blindly spew opinions. Think them through!

    I can tell you this: Driving from Reading to Woburn at 2:30PM was hazardous. The roads were very slick. I slid sideways twice and that doesn’t happen to me often. I got home at 3PM and took care of some outside cleanup. At 4PM I then left to drop my daughter off at Davis Square in Somerville, during a lull in the precipitation in this area. At that time, the roads became just wet and fairly easily traveled. When I headed back to Woburn, I ran into a wall of moderate snow and conditions rapidly deteriorated as a snow band moved in. My MAIN ROAD is now snow covered and cars are sliding.

    The conditions VARY from place to place and from time to time!

    There is NO ONE CONDITION ACROSS THE BOARD!

    So please, if you are one of the people trying to make others sound stupid by trying to tell them there are no problems when there are, then just plain CUT THE SHIT.

    Thank you.

  185. Snow has really intensified again suddenly in northern CT….still don’t see any eastward movement to the back edge of precip on the radar. In fact, it still seems to be sliding even further west into eastern NY.

  186. Any idea when this ends in my area? I only ask as I want to shovel later tonight and was curious if doing it twice (tonight and tomorrow) was unavoidable or if there was a time tonight I could do it once. Thanks!

    1. As previously stated, winds down between 9 and midnight. I’ve made no changes to the forecast today other than what I announced this morning with evening off the numbers.

  187. Good job, North! You paid close enough attention to remember that I did indeed say there would be variable conditions with this. Some pockets of almost nothing, while other areas have pockets of accumulating snow. And then, the reverse may be true soon after. When I left my house at 4PM, there were breaks in the clouds. At 5:20PM, I have moderate snow with visibility under 1/2 mile.

    1. North gets a gold star on the forehead. I am sure you can’t do that now as it hurts everyones feelings HA. Yeah I noticed it flipping TK…radar (for our area) has been lax all day but now appears to be filling in more.

  188. That will make sense in areas they don’t feel will be safe enough. Sometimes this is due to snow amounts (and there were some double-digit amounts – if you noticed, my top area was followed by “locally heavier amounts”). In some cases, budgets are not allowing efficient cleanup to get done. That’s a whole different issue.

  189. saw that too, but that is due to those towns having no power for their schools. There were very strong winds even for my area, so not really surprised.

    1. Good comment, Matt. There may even be some pockets that do not have power from last week or who have not cleared fallen limbs.

  191. moderate to heavy band moving into Central middlesex county, this is not over. I am actually pretty pleased on how my maps have worked out this time.

    2. There’s not a lot of movement in the mid levels just west of here, outside the storm’s circulation. If you look at a larger scale satellite loop, you can see the broad interaction between the big storm offshore and the trough and weaker low behind it. It just so happens that this area just outside the circulation has some upward motion for snow, is drifting east, and running into the westward-moving echoes from the storm. That’s one of the reasons that mesoscale band just blew up over northeastern and east central MA.

        1. Not sure. Depends on how long the ocean effect hangs on down here and unique to Scituate and Marshfield, what kind of shape are the coastal roads in for the busses. It’s my understanding for example, that there are quite a bit of small rocks in the road up in Brant Rock.

          2. Humarock looks bad also but that may only make a difference for very few. So sorry about the coastal damage. Makes me sad

  195. Mu town does a poor job plowing. Tk u probably notice the difference on West St from Reading to Woburn, much better once u hit the woburn border towards washington st.

    2. Son in law said Wellesley, Weston and Natick (only small part) were horrible. When he hit framingham it was far better. Mac used to say the same coming home from Watertown. Framingham years ago was not good but it is now one of best around ……in my area.

      1. Yea it’s interesting how much it varies from town to town, i think it depends how big the towns are, Reading is relatively small compared to Woburn, population wise at least.

          1. It’s the towns you think would have big budgets that don’t. That’s how they stay wealthy, lol. Mine is one of those towns as well, being in the top 10 highest real estate tax bills not much goes to snow removal.

            1. Interesting. I know in Wellesley they take trash to dump….so you are very correct. Crazy. And taxes are high.

  197. Intensity picked up here also. Just drove my stepdaughter to work and the roads are awful. Very happy my colleagues were able to get home and out of harm’s way.

  198. Boston Public Schools reopen tomorrow.

    Just for the record, I never had a problem in the least with the cancellations today. You don’t have to have a foot of snow for roads and sidewalks to be hazardous.

    1. People seem to think it’s about the total accumulation. It’s about the conditions at key times.

      6 inches falling over 2 days with light snow.
      1/2 inch of very heavy snow in 10 minutes at rush hour.

      Which one is going to have more road impact?

  200. Just when you want to go out and get the driveway and walkways cleared, it snows the hardest it has snowed all day. Go figure!

  201. On cancellations … I just walked from my office to the T and it was treacherous… Very slippery! Passing through Brookline on the T and snow is moderate to heavy.

  203. Total snowfall to date @ Logan = 19.4″ (Will likely increase a bit more this evening)

    Total snowfall 1912-13 = 19.4″

    Could the 1912-13 Winter have been an El Niño one? Hmmm. 😉

    I just thought the 19.4″ was an interesting coincidence.

  207. Had about 2 inches fall through the day. but have added another 2 inches in the past couple of hours. with moderate/heavy snow falling. Roads are snow covered. There is some wind but not much.

  208. 1 ft of snow south Plymouth, still coming in in bands, agree with Tk, drove from Bourne over the bridge to Plymouth, poor visibility this morning with a tractor trailer jackknifed at the rotary around 11:00 am. At 2pm I thought the storm was over. Decisions have to made before a storm even forms. I do not want to be that guy because Friday I would have had Plymouth in school and that would have been the wrong decision midday. These guys have to read tomorrows headlines before they make decisions.

  209. Picked up about 1.5 inches in the last 2 hours. Pretty impressive snow this evening here in the NW suburbs.

    A very slow wind-down begins now. Holes should appear in the snow coverage by 9PM, and the entire thing should be just about done by midnight but there may be snow showers near the eastern shores overnight and at times tomorrow.

    1. Yeah was just saying we got more in the last few hours than all day. Almost made it out unscathed!

  211. It’s a beautiful snowfall, just as Friday was. No, it’s not record-setting, but it’s most definitely wintry out there, plus mother nature’s putting down some much needed precipitation to at least make a small dent in our water deficit.

    I’m just going to sit back and enjoy perhaps the most wintry week this winter. Beats anything that happened in the dud winter of 2011-2012.

    1. Love that outlook, Joshua.

      I was pleased to see the Sudbury River was at a comfortable level when I drove over if yesterday. Great point about water level

  212. I gotta give you a radar lesson. It’s barely moving. Edging north. The acceleration of northward movement is about 2 hours away.

    1. No.
      It’s crawling. It’s moved about 5 miles in the last 2 hours.

      The snow may be getting lighter in your area because the overall area is weakening, but the edge has made virtually no progress and won’t do so for a little while longer.

    1. Wouldn’t rule out overnight and morning snow squalls in Pembroke and along the southern and northern coast of Massachusetts.

    2. Are you on a different time zone, Charlie? We are still accumulating and it is 9:00 …at least in my time zone

  214. One thing for sure, this is a `cold’ storm. I was out and about an hour ago and it’s really cold outside. My guess would be wind chills in the single digits. Combine that with the snow falling, and yes, we can definitely call this a winter’s day.

  215. RGEM and 18z NAM are more robust with the second wave of low pressure forming south of us on Wednesday. Both show potential for 2-4″ Wednesday. 18z GFS does not agree.

    TK what are your thoughts on this?

  217. I think we get something in the Friday to Saturday time frame, The models of course are all over the place but they all have something around the area in that time frame. Most off the coast or out to sea with varying intensities, The trend the past few weeks are to send things further west and or more powerful. With the large gradient of warmer temps and extreme cold, I do not see why something could not form though could run into the same issue like this past storm with a true north wind shutting the precip down.

        1. Me too, hope it holds. Superintendent indicated that if morning conditions prove more challenging than expected, a cancellation is still possible. So, hopefully the ocean effect snow bands won’t be too persistent overnight.

  221. The storms battering the British Isles are truly remarkable. I’d refrain from saying unprecedented. I’m sure this has happened at some point in the nation’s history. But, getting hammered by 80-90mph wind gusts almost every 3rd day along with lashing rains is really incredible. Furthermore, having rain every day for well over 100 days is just obscene. These weather events are barely reported in the U.S. press, which I find a little provincial of us.

    Storm `Imogen:’

    http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/weather/12145886/UK-weather-Storm-Imogen-lashes-Britain-with-gales-and-torrential-rain-live.html

    Storm `Henry:’

    http://www.bbc.com/news/uk-scotland-35474399

    1. Reminds me of the Ice Storm which ravaged parts of Ontario and Quebec in Jan of 1998. I remember listening to CBC from Montreal on line (one of earliest media outlets to stream their content over the web). The stories and news were incredible but almost nothing was reported in the states about it and the storm only became news here when a weakened version of the storm affected far northern Vermont, NH and central Maine. While the damage to those area was significant it paled in comparison to what happened in Quebec and Ontario. We truly can be a provincial country when it comes to the reporting of news from other parts of the world.

  226. Still accumulating here. Up to 5 inches and everything I shoveled since 8:30 is already re-coated. But it is finally getting quite light.

  227. Southern edge of snow is about 10 miles SOUTH of Providence as of 9:30PM. Acceleration northward will begin within the hour as holes develop in the rest of the snow area. The support is leaving the area, and the overall mid level flow is south to north so that’ll push the remaining snow northward.

  228. Still some light accumulation here. It got shoveled in places I usually measure before I got out. I can roughly measure 6.5.

  230. Logan is now up to 4.7″ for a seasonal total so far of 21.9″…and still snowing.

    Also, NWS has officially declared today a BLIZZARD.

      2. The blizzard warning didn’t include Boston anyway. 🙂

        The criteria were met to the south.

    2. It’s a condition based on a set of criteria, not a storm. The only reason you’d think it is nuts is because your perception of what a blizzard is has been skewed by the media’s false presentation of such an event.

  233. As another storm winds down and Before I run completely out of steam, thank you TK. Again….amazing insight and knowledge. Excellent work!!

  234. so far and it is still snowing, 5.5 inches. So far on my season, I have My board in my Backyard at 23.6 inches.

  235. Got way more than I expected…easily 6-7 in my driveway (which does collect drifts). Long night ahead!

    2. I’ll get the snowblower going in the morning. Too late now. Don’t want neighbor complaints. Great job on the prediction, TK! Between 5-6 inches here in North Reading.

    1. Models do not have much in the way of precip, has plenty of cold which is then followed by storms that hit right over us with rain.

  240. If you’re a snow lover, Barnstable County and Dukes County (Oak Bluffs on Vineyard) were the jackpot areas. Thinking that some location on Martha’s Vineyard will reach double digits.

  241. Few things in life worse than spending two hours hand shoveling your property only to have it rain snow again as you walking back into your house. I quit.

  244. Good morning.

    It’s still snowing :). Fine sized, misty graupel shower.

    One of our cars is surrounded by 1 and 1/2 to 2 foot snow drifts, meanwhile the path to the house is as clear as can be.

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