Tuesday Forecast

72 Comments

7:29AM

DAYS 1-5 (APRIL 19-23)…
Disturbance moving through today has already brought most of its rain across eastern areas with less to the west, but unstable enough for some lingering cloudiness and a few additional pop up showers after we get some sun to cook them up, but they will be the exception not the rule for most of the region. High pressure builds in for midweek and we’ll be on the cool side of it Wednesday and the warmer side Thursday. Next frontal system is in Friday with a rain shower risk but mild air. Improvement arrives early in the weekend as things will be moving along once again.
TODAY: Mostly cloudy to partly sunny. Isolated showers possible. Highs in the middle 50s to lower 60s. Wind NE to N increasing to 10-20 MPH with higher gusts.
TONIGHT: Partly cloudy early, then mostly clear. Lows in the middle 30s to lower 40s. Wind N to NW 5-15 MPH with higher gusts.
WEDNESDAY: Mostly sunny. Highs in the 50s. Wind NW 5-15 MPH with higher gusts.
THURSDAY: Mostly sunny. Lows in the 40s. Highs in the 60s.
FRIDAY: Mostly cloudy. Chance of rain showers. Lows in the 50s. Highs in the 60s.
SATURDAY: Variably cloudy. Lows in the 40s. Highs in the middle 50s to lower 60s.

DAYS 6-10 (APRIL 24-28)…
Dry pattern overall. Temperatures near to below normal.

DAYS 11-15 (APRIL 29-MAY 3)…
Dry to end April. May turn warmer and more showery to start May.

72 thoughts on “Tuesday Forecast”

  3. Good morning and thank you TK.
    Kind of ho hum in the weather department.

    Boston Buoy water temperature stands at 45 Degrees this morning.
    I have to believe that is Pretty darn close to average for this date, if not
    a tad above. For the record, I have seen it 46 Degrees on Memorial Day and 53 Degrees on July 4th, so I know it could be a lot worse.

    The sunshine of the last several days bumped it up by about 1.5 Degrees or
    “just” about what we expected. This is good. Need a slow but steady increase in
    that surface temperature to help mitigate the brutal cooling influence of that
    EAST wind.

    By the time we get into summer, we Welcome that East wind, but not in the Spring.

    I fear that this summer, the water will warm up so much, that East winds will
    bring thunderstorms ala Miami.

    1. It’s interesting you bring up the subject of Seabreeze thunderstorms. I was thinking about that myself. May be a mid to late summer thing around here this year. The thing about such storms is they can go fairly stationary and pound one area for a long while, even along a line, while areas either side get little or nothing.

      2. I do recall one viscous one that struck our house in JP somewhere
        in the 90s. We had a SE sea breeze in the summer. It provided very little cooling at our house, that is until the heavens opened up.

        It appears this situation is quite rare around these parts being
        so far North, but it can and does happen.

        1. We had one in July at Humarock. I’m thinking year was 2013 – last time there in summer. It danced around from the river side of the house to the ocean side. Cloud to ground/water lightening was phenomenal. One right after the other. I do recall people remaining on the beach. Not sure if this is what you are all referring to.

          1. Nope. The one I was referring to hit The Southern and SouthWestern sections of Boston and neighboring Brookline and Newton. And it was
            most definitely in the 90s somewhere. 😀

            1. No – I didn’t mean the one you were referring to specifically but the seabreeze tstorms in general. Sorry.

              1. well Okie dokie. All is well.

                Don’t see too many of those
                sea breeze thunderstorms.

                Interesting suckers, they are. 😀

  4. Pleasant surprise at the sun this early down here in SE Mass.

    I wonder if this extra sun may add to the instability in eastern Mass for this afternoon ….

  5. Thank you TK

    Sun just trying to break through here. Can see some filtered blue around the top of the tree line

  6. Getting Better – darn, I am sorry to hear I have missed some of your posts. Along with your information, you throw in a few comments that always make me smile.

    Could that 2008-2009 storm that took you so long to reach Acton have been December 2007? Maybe another Dec 9 storm – although I’ve lost track of them.

    Mac took about the same amount of time to reach Framingham from Watertown. From the Marriott in Newton on Rt 30 to a mile crossing over 128, it took him 1 hour. After crossing 128, he took a left heading toward Wellesley. He had two women from work following him and had no idea where he was going but it was moving. He miraculously ended up on Wellesley Road and knew to head in by Rivers School. Still took him 5-6 hours.

    His mom had come to stay with us after his dad passed away the previous October. She detested snow and we managed to have several good size storms 2007-2008. Funny thing is that my best memory is seeing her sitting in the window as I shoveled and Mac tried to start the snow blower. She said two things….the snow truly was beautiful and Mac needed a snowblower (which she bought for him). I think secretly she was buying it for me since all he did was try to crank the old one while I finished the driveway 🙂

    1. I was working in Billerica on the Bedford line at the time of that storm, and our company was letting people go home around 11:00am (with full day’s pay!). I had a direct report who was refusing to leave and I didn’t get to go home until 1pm. It took me over 6 hours to go 12 miles home to Chelmsford. I imagine that drive on Route 3 north was not dissimilar to those who slogged home in the Blizzard of ’78. I had to stop on an offramp to clean my car off, as the snow was coming down so hard that the wipers and defrosters could not keep up. Scariest drive of my life! Vicki, you’re right – it was December, 2007.

      1. Mac was never a nervous driver but he was nervous in that one and said the same you did Flowergirl about having to clear the windows. Even the tiniest hills caused cars to get stuck. He left around 2:00 despite someone (that’d be me) suggesting several hours prior that he leave. I think he was extra nervous because of the two women (coworkers and friends) following him.

        1. Everyone was doing it – you had to. I was wading on the offramp to clear my car, thankfully I was the only one getting off at that time. I’m not a nervous driver, but I do hate driving in snow, even with all wheel drive 😀

    2. Yes- it must have been the winter before! I remember the first hour was just getting down Mall Road – where Lahey is now – complete gridlock.

      1. I have to say I do enjoy my commute….from bed to next room. However, I think I worry twice as much not knowing where everyone is.

    2. Dave’s short answer is correct. To expand: Split flow. Polar jet took storms thru Lakes, mild with little precipitation or just rain. Subtropical jet took storms too far southeast for big snow even when it was cold enough.

  9. Thanks, TK.

    Interesting article on global warming:

    http://www.bloomberg.com/news/features/2016-04-19/earth-s-temperature-just-shattered-the-thermometer

    I am not a global warming skeptic, however, I have an issue with the temperature measurement as displayed in the Bloomberg article. From Labrador to Iceland you can see one of only a few cold regions on the map. Surely, however, this cold region should have extended at least through the Baffin Island area, but also included more of central Quebec. I follow the temperatures in these regions like a nut (because I am a bit loopy in this regard). No way Baffin Island was warmer than average. Our friends at Kimmirut will tell you that it has not been warm up there, nor will it be anytime soon. Epic blizzard brewing in that part of the world the coming days. The low may stall which would produce blizzard conditions for days on end.

    http://kimmirutweather.com/

    1. There are a lot of stations missing in the Arctic and Siberia this has been skewing the stats, unfortunately. They were drastically cut down starting in the early 1980s.

  11. Both the 12z GFS and EURO seem to have kept the very cool shot of air further north into southeast Canada.

    They’ve also allowed for a boundary to set up further north of southern New England btwn that cool air in southeast Canada and a mild to warm mid Atlantic. This would be for late in the weekend into early next weekend.

    Let’s see if it’s a hiccup or a trend.

    I also think SE New England might not be too showery Friday and that’s good cause we’ll be down the Cape. 🙂 🙂 🙂 🙂

    2. I will keep my fingers crossed that the cape has GREAT weather. Are you heading there for the weekend?

  14. I see Boston is at 50. Not sure what the high was. I hit 64. Currently 60. No east wind off the water here.

    1. That’s the ARM PIT, Logan Airport with it’s fackucta East wind, and that temperature is NOT representative of most of the city. I see about 55 across most of the rest of the city. I was out a while ago, and I can assure you it ain’t no stinken 50 degrees. Around 2PM the sun came out and it felt wonderful out there. 😀

          1. One that gives you a temperature it knows you will like as opposed to one that is influenced by the fackucta East wind

            Just a guess 😉

            1. ROTFLMAO!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

              Thank you. Made my day, which isn’t exactly going as planned. I can’t get anything to work correctly!

  15. Station 44013 (LLNR 420) – BOSTON 16 NM East of Boston, MA Image indicating link to RSS feed of recent meteorological observations for station 44013
    Boston Approach Lighted Buoy BF NOAA 44013

    Water Temperature (WTMP): 45.9 °F

    Slowly, but surely, we are making progress on the water temperature front. 😀

  16. The March 2016, and the whole January-March period, are just astonishing when it comes to the temperatures. If you didn’t know better you would absolutely believe that the numbers from this year so far do not even belong in the same data set as every other year on record. The fact that we can already have 99% confidence in 2016 being the warmest year on record after 3 months speaks volumes as well. Dr. Jeff Masters and Bob Henson at Weather Underground write up an excellent summary every month when the data comes out. I’ll link it here, I highly recommend at least looking at the statistics in the first couple paragraphs. Truly an unprecedented rate of global climate change.

    https://www.wunderground.com/blog/JeffMasters/comment.html?entrynum=3286

    1. Thank you, WX. I had seen a similar writeup. This one is excellent as well. Each year keeps topping the last.

  17. Conditions at 44013 as of
    (3:50 pm EDT)
    1950 GMT on 04/19/2016:

    Station 44013 (LLNR 420) – BOSTON 16 NM East of Boston, MA Image indicating link to RSS feed of recent meteorological observations for station 44013
    Boston Approach Lighted Buoy BF NOAA 44013

    Water Temperature (WTMP): 46.4 °F

    Tom you called this one the middle of last week. 😀

    1. 🙂 🙂 🙂

      Yay, let’s shoot for 47F tomorrow.

      Thursday and Friday might be less successful with SW winds and upwelling.

      It’s the sunny days with light seabreezes that are most profitable for warming that shallow top layer.

  18. I believe the temp at Logan may be about to jump 8 to 12 degrees between now and sunset.

    1. Harvey mentioned on air a temperature rise as well with a wind shift to the north with strong winds. Sea breeze is light, but land breeze is strong.

    1. I don’t think they have anything left in the tank and they are outmatched in this series.

      For all the “mild to warm” the temps are running below normal almost everywhere in the Northeast this month. A long streak of near or above normal may be broken unless we get some surprises the rest of this month.

  21. I wouldn’t be surprised to end up a little below normal. Be interesting to see where PVD, ORH, and BOS come in. This week end and the week of the 25th look below normal a bit. 850’s look cool.

    1. NAO looks to hit neutral by next weekend. I’d really like to see a ridge in here at some point, but so far I don’t see much sign of one.

  22. I love this stretch of weather in Boston. Most unusual this time of year when it’s usually either crappy raw or warm and humid. We’re experiencing a nice string of clear, crisp but not cold, tranquil days – after a very brief shower interlude overnight and early this morning. It feels like autumn in spring.

    1. Yea, I pretty much agree. We’ve had some pretty terrible springs, but I’ll have to say this one has been nice. I like warmer temps, but I get impatient for it. Even s tad below normal hasn’t been ALL that bad. But I will be glad to see some consistent 65 + degree days.

  23. As of 9:00 pm obs. at Logan = 47F, still no temperature rise.

    What I meant TK was that Harvey was “forecasting” a temp rise by sunset with a loss of the sea breeze and a switch to a gusty land breeze from the north. I was in no way implying that the temp rise had already occurred while he was on air. 🙂

    1. Oh I know. I was kind of surprised the ocean cool held as strong as it did there. As a friend of mine says, Boston is a PIT! 😛

  25. Rd Flag today- Be careful of all burning materials. Towns probably will not issue any permits today

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