Wednesday Forecast

53 Comments

7:05AM

DAYS 1-5 (APRIL 27-MAY 1)…
Dry and cool pattern in control as high pressure to the north successfully holds off attempts by low pressure areas passing to the south to move far enough north to impact southern New England.
TODAY: Sunny. Highs in the middle 50s to lower 60s. Wind NW 5-15 MPH.
TONIGHT: Clear. Lows in the 30s. Wind light NW.
THURSDAY: Sunny. Highs in the middle 50s to lower 60s. Wind NW to N 5-15 MPH.
THURSDAY NIGHT: Partly cloudy. Lows in the 30s. Wind light N.
FRIDAY: Mostly sunny. Highs in the middle 50s to lower 60s. Wind N 5-15 MPH.
SATURDAY: Partly cloudy. Lows in the middle 30s to lower 40s. Highs in the upper 50s to middle 60s.
SUNDAY: Mostly cloudy. Lows in the 40s. Highs in the upper 50s to middle 60s.

DAYS 6-10 (MAY 2-6)…
Will watch low pressure to the south for potential impact May 2-4, though it may stay to the south. Fair weather later in the period. Temperatures near to below normal.

DAYS 11-15 (MAY 7-11)…
This period may trend milder with a risk of episodic rain showers but this is a low confidence forecast at this time.

53 thoughts on “Wednesday Forecast”

  4. I see frost and freeze warnings are up for Eastern areas this evening so technically the growing season hasn’t started yet in Southern New England. Does this effect growing grass? I planted seed over a week ago and it still hasn’t germinated. I’ve been watering it on a daily basis

  5. Good morning and thank you for the update TK.

    Hmmm 50s to low 60s. What I did not see was any wording to the effect:
    “Cooler coastal sections”.

    So you feel the gradient will stay strong enough to fend off that pesky East wind?

    As a contrast, Eric was emphatic about a cooling East Wind through the weekend.

    Curious. Many thanks

    1. It will be coolest near the coast but should be enough gradient for more north than east except maybe Boston.

  6. After that miserable day yesterday, the Buoy 16 miles East of Boston (Boston Buoy)
    is starting today…

    Station 44013 (LLNR 420) – BOSTON 16 NM East of Boston, MA Image indicating link to RSS feed of recent meteorological observations for station 44013
    Boston Approach Lighted Buoy BF NOAA 44013:

    Water Temperature (WTMP): 45.0 °F

    1. How does frost affect tulips? I have not had them previously. Also, I am assuming it does not affect the flowering trees? Thank you!!

        1. Thanks, Philip! I would think they would be also Philip since they are an early spring flower. I just haven’t had any experience with them.

  8. JPD, I remember Mrs. OS would like your lawn to be greener. Son is into making sure the new lawn does not end up looking like our old lawn. He did get a soil testing kit last weekend and has figured what he needs to feed. It seemed rather straight forward so wanted to pass it on to you. It seemed like something you would have fun with since you have a scientific approach to things.

        1. I have the sense JPDs heart is not in this….can’t say as I blame him. Note I said son is doing feed,etc and my son in law is mowing etc. I’m at the age where I prefer to sit and let nature do its thing

            1. To everyone his own. I’m suspecting by time son finishes we will have 10 lawn and I’ll enjoy watching the process. If he were not into it, I wouldn’t care either. Was a time I did but I found there are more important things for me

  9. I am happy to see the sun today !!

    So, at +10.6F above average in December 2015, for a monthly average temp of 45.3F …..

    fast forward 4 months to April, 2016, which has a departure of -0.5F and a month to date average temp of 46.9F ….

    It has been but 1.6F warmer in April than last December.

    About 30 to 35 degrees of gain on the sun angle and 4 extra hours of sun per day, for a gain of not even 2F.

  10. Sun doing its job!!

    Station 44013 (LLNR 420) – BOSTON 16 NM East of Boston, MA Image indicating link to RSS feed of recent meteorological observations for station 44013
    Boston Approach Lighted Buoy BF NOAA 44013

    Water Temperature (WTMP): 47.5 °F

  11. 1PM obs from Logan:

    Boston, Logan International Airport, MA
    (KBOS) 42.36056N 71.01056W
    2 Day History

    Partly Cloudy
    54.0 °F
    Last Updated: Apr 27 2016, 12:54 pm EDT
    Wed, 27 Apr 2016 12:54:00 -0400
    Weather: Partly Cloudy
    Temperature: 54.0 °F (12.2 °C)
    Dewpoint: 28.9 °F (-1.7 °C)
    Relative Humidity: 38 %
    Wind: Southeast at 11.5 MPH (10 KT)
    Wind Chill: 51 F (11 C)
    Visibility: 10.00 miles
    MSL Pressure: 1011.5 mb
    Altimeter: 29.87 in Hg

  13. A little chilly out there today. At least the Sun is back I guess.

    I’d highly recommend reading this article I’ve linked below. It relates to yesterday’s severe weather over the central and southern US. Basically saying how, by the letter, yesterday’s forecast actually verified quite well, and it did. However, most people were very clearly expecting more. I think what it boils down to is something TK has talked about many times: you had a situation where a potentially serious threat was identified many days out. It was tracked, the forecast was refined, and the threat did verify, but not to the extreme extent it looked like it originally may. But none of it mattered; the hype train left the station many days ago, and in the end that hype was the message that got communicated.

    https://www.washingtonpost.com/news/capital-weather-gang/wp/2016/04/27/tuesdays-severe-weather-bust-is-a-communication-wake-up-call/

    1. Nice article and very interesting.

      Not every ripe situation develops to it’s full potential.
      Most times when they issue a PDS, it really is.
      And from all of the hail and wind, I’d say it was, indeed, a PDS even if
      there was not a major tornado outbreak.

      I think that the SPC does a fantastic job.

    2. Hi! I’m briefly reduced again to my WBZ Blog self, as a little fix is performed on the “higher access” portion of my blog. 😉

      My friend out there chasing said it best and this is a major paraphrase but basically what he said along with my added comments…

      You can certainly identify a pattern that is conducive to severe weather, be it isolated, scattered, or widespread, pretty far in advance. What you cannot do is forecast the little details until a couple days or even hours ahead of it. Yesterday, the lack of shear was a limiting factor. That did not arrive until nighttime, along with a low level jet sufficient for rotating storms and tornadoes. By then, the main line had moved to the east after existing in conditions that were more limiting of extremes.

      But the news media is so ready to put out the big scary headlines about massive severe weather outbreaks and how many millions are “in the path” or “in danger” (another tactic I absolutely despise), that it’s a lost cause for the meteorologist to even try explaining what can happen.

      1. Well said also.

        And I like when you are occasionally reduced …..it is fun to see topkatt….I often wonder if new folks know why we call you TK

  14. So now we have a battle between the blocky ECMWF and the more progressive GFS setting up for the first week to 10 days of May. Lately, the progressive GFS has been coming out on top in these battles but I’m having doubts if the victory will be so easy this time. Keeping an eye on this.

    When we got into the “good side of the block” earlier this month, the GFS had that right. The ECMWF wanted us on the crappy side, and it does again this time, but the GFS has less block and more flow. So, we’ll see.

    1. Euro looks a lot more amplified and dug that’s for sure. If the GFS wins out on this even a little, the new euro version has an amplification issue; much as it did over the winter.

  15. Thankfully no individual cells developed and it was more of a line of thunderstorms.
    I don’t mind a bust like that when it comes to what was forecasted. With that said even though the tornado threat did not materialized like forecasted it was still a good size severe weather outbreak.

  18. My weather station arrived. Anyone want to come help me put it together? And why is writing so tiny in instruction books? Not to mention the tiny screws my screwdriver won’t fit into.

    Well now I’d say vicki is a bit negative this afternoon.

  21. On the ECMWF vs. GFS for next week, you kind of see which model some of these local mets are leaning. Take next Wednesday for example:

    WXFT – 67 with clouds and sun
    WHDH – 45 with rain
    WBZ – 49 with rain.
    WCVB – 64 with clouds and sun

    Its a toss up this early but am leaning on the warmer scenario side. As for how much precipitation if any, really not sure. I’ll leave that to the experts.

    2. I noticed that too. ‘BZ will ride the Euro to Hades and back, so that’s a given. When Pete was at HDH, he seemed to use both.
      I’ll go with the GFS, partly because that’s what I want and I don’t have to make a real forecast. Plus, this new euro has dug deep troughs out of Canada for the last few months, some verified, some not so much. I’ll go with persistence, as in persistently over amplified. Plus that NAO has hit a nadir. It’s loosening up now. Taunton’s discussion this afternoon seemed to indicate they like the warmer and more progressive scenario Wednesday. I had another met I trust tell me he didn’t think the euro was much good right now beyond about day 5.
      One thing about it, we’ll know in a few days what’s right.

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