Monday Forecast

75 Comments

7:32AM

DAYS 1-5 (JUNE 27-JULY 1)…
High pressure hangs on today with sunshine and warmer air and an increase in humidity as well. A slow-moving cold front will take 2 days to cross the region Tuesday and Wednesday with several opportunities for scattered showers and thunderstorms. Widespread and beneficial rainfall is still unlikely with this frontal passage, however. High pressure pushes in Thursday and Friday with a return to fair weather.
TODAY: Mostly sunny. More humid. Highs from the middle 80s to lower 90s, cooler southern coastal areas.
TONIGHT: Partly cloudy. Humid. Lows in the 60s. Wind SW 5-15 MPH.
TUESDAY: Mostly cloudy. Humid. Chance of showers and thunderstorms. Highs from the upper 70s to middle 80s, coolest South Coast. Wind S to SW 10-20 MPH.
WEDNESDAY: Variably cloudy. Humid. Chance of showers and thunderstorms. Lows in the 60s. Highs in the 80s except cooler South Coast.
THURSDAY: Partly cloudy. Lows from the upper 50s to middle 60s. Highs from the upper 70s to middle 80s.
FRIDAY: Mostly sunny. Lows in the 60s. Highs in the 80s.

DAYS 6-10 (JULY 2-6)…
Frontal system looks a little faster, early to mid part of July 2, with a few showers and thunderstorms possible, then a return to fair weather which lasts the remainder of the period. temperatures fairly close to seasonal averages.

DAYS 11-15 (JULY 7-11)…
Shower and thunderstorm threat returns later July 7 through July 8 with the next disturbance then fair weather returns again. Temperatures near to above normal and watching the possibility of some increased heat.

75 thoughts on “Monday Forecast”

  3. Thank you, TK. You can feel the humidity building. 68 here with 59 DP and light SSW wind. I checked Humarock and it is 70 there with a 61 DP and gustier SW wind.

    Other than the couple of days weeks ago when it was in the 90s and I didn’t have ceiling fans installed yet, I have not used AC. There has been a consistent breeze and with the lower humidity it feels like natures AC.

  5. Good morning and thank you TK.

    I saw that several communities reached 90 yesterday. Good call on your part.

    Boston starting the day with the wind from 200 degrees, which is SSW. IF that doesn’t change much, Boston’s high will be in the mid 80’s somewhere (84-87) and I do not believe Boston makes 90. Inland areas NW of the city very likely will.

    At 8AM Boston is 71 with dew point of 57. Let’s keep that dew point under 60 all day.
    (I know, it is likely to creep above that)

    1. Just took a look at the severe parameters for tomorrow and Wednesday.
      They are virtually non-existent. Totally laughable. I seriously wonder
      IF we see a drop of rain in Eastern sections. 😀

  7. We need rain. I am not sure what it is at Logan the rainfall deficit for the year but where are records are kept for Inland CT at Bradley International Airport were down 6.03 inches.
    I do agree with the SPC outlook with the marginal risk just west of SNE. Will see if they keep it when it updates around 1:30pm today.

    1. NEVER makes it into Eastern sections. At least it is not being modeled
      at this time. 😀

  8. Logan up to 76. Wind SW. I am seeing readings of wind directions from 180 to 220.
    The closer to 180, the better. (That is if you don’t want 90s, else the closer to 270 the
    better). 😀

  9. Thanks, TK!
    Reposted from last night:
    JPD: Last week, you said that you are on no-sugar diet. May I ask you what you eat? What you don’t eat/drink? What do you eat for snacks? I want to start something similar this week.

    1. Sure, no problem.

      When I say no sugar, I mean I have cut way down on sugar.
      No sodas as I drink Seltzer water now or plain water.
      I don’t add sugar to food, however, if there is sugar already in the food
      I still eat that. It’s not like a diabetic diet where no sugar is absolute.
      I also do get sugars from fruit.

      I also eliminated my 2 daily huge mugs of coffee with about 6-10 teaspoons of sugar each.

      I also use Almond milk instead of whole milk.

      So I do eat ordinary foods. They key is portion size. I try not to eat so much.
      I do not purchase any so-called “Diet” foods.

      For snacks I eat:

      Skinny Pop pop corn. (39 calories per cup and I have a bowl of about 3 cups.)
      Apples
      Grapes
      Bananas (usually with a meal as dessert, only once per day as they have
      many calories)
      Sometimes several saltine crackers.

      Good luck.

    1. Based on what TK said as well as other mets I have seen on TV….showers are a possibility but certainly not a wash out on any day.

      1. Thanks Sue . I’ve been working like crazy on weekends with my business and really looking forward to outdoor activities with the family all weekend . My neighbor is having a huge party Sunday around 100 people and he puts on a fantastic fireworks show . We plan on watching display from the swim spa lol. Hope your daughter is feeling better.

  12. Is the NAM for real or on Steroids and/or crack cocaine?

    Calling for a widespread 1+ inches of rain across the area from tomorrow AM
    through Wednesday evening. Right and I’m Santa Clause.

  13. Today feels more like a typical June day as the humidity builds and the wind comes from the southwest. This said, we’ve had a glorious month of mostly humidity-free weather. The downside is little or no rain. Lawns are stressed. Trees are stressed. I’m stressed, just empathizing with the botanic world.

    1. Lawns are more than stressed, they are absolutely brown (unless of course
      they have been watered). I can see the stress in the trees.

      1. We are watering for 45 minutes each zone every other day. Our lawn is like straw. Some neighbors are watering daily and even daily and their laws are not much better. That discourages me from spending the money to do more. One problem is we have no shade at all. Another is our soil is very sandy

          1. I went fishing yesterday at several spots along
            the Charles River. The water is very very low. So low, I had to abandon a couple of spots because there wasn’t enough water to hold any fish.

            I have seen it lower, but it is very low.

  15. The instability barely touches western parts of SNE on the 12z NAM run. Where the instability is lines up with the SPC marginal risk area for tomorrow.

  16. Both 12z runs of the American Models look to be in agreement where the instability sets up tomorrow. On Wednesday the NAM more aggressive with instability across SNE where as the GFS shows a touch of instability for eastern parts of SNE.

  17. More instability the NAM is showing and the air is humid that if there are any thunderstorms that could go with the instability you could squeeze out some pretty good downpours. This is why I am thinking your seeing those higher totals which is probably over done.

  18. I don’t have a DP on my weather station. Short sighted of me I know. Wunder says DP is 44 here. Temp According to my station is 83.7. It feels more humid than yesterday but another nearby Wunder station in Uxbridge says 22 DP

    Do these sound accurate?

    1. Dew point is 48 at Worcester and 55 in Boston. Your 44 might be accurate, but the 22 is OUT to LUNCH.

      Was 83.7 at my house as well. 😀

  19. NAM is way overdone, but we could hold out hope for a nice rainfall. And JP Dave, maybe you are Santa Claus.

    1. Well, several months ago I WAS heavy enough to do the job and IF I let my
      beard grow out, it would be sufficiently gray. 😀

      I think the NAM is way overblown, HOWEVER, there is some support from the RAP and the HRRR, so perhaps there is “some” hope for decent rains over
      the next 2 days.

      Waiting to see what the Euro has to say, if anything.

      1. 12Z Euro throwing some support to the NAM, albeit mostly for
        Boston North and West. Kind of a sharp line right at Boston.

  21. Most reporting stations are now showings gusty winds from the SOUTH.

    This will cap the high temperatures From Central MA Southward.

    Ny Guess: Best bet for 90+ is Northern MA especially Merrimack Valley into Southern
    NH like Nashua and Manchester areas. Boston was at 85 at 1PM. Not sure it
    goes any higher, if so a Degree or so perhaps. I wouldn’t be a bit surprised if Logan’s
    temp drops off a degree or 2.

    1. 2PM at Logan, still 85 with a rather strong SOUTH winds. It’s blowing
      pretty good out there.

  22. Don’t agree with the SPC extending the marginal severe weather risk into the CT River Valley area. I thought the earlier outlook was fine keeping the risk off to the west of SNE.
    12z American models barely getting any instability into far western parts of SNE tomorrow.

  25. Whoa…what is that line In NY. I got steak for the grill for tonight figuring it would be safer than tomorrow. That line will fall apart……right??

            1. I “think” you will be OK, BUT that
              line does seem to be moving rather quickly.
              Please note: NWS is indicating extremely
              DRY air out ahead of that line.

              Keep an eye on it or 2 is you like. 😀

    1. Dropped all the way to 80 at 4PM due to continued South wind and increase
      in cloud cover.

  27. 18z NAM Wednesday still aggressive with the instability and for tomorrow western parts of SNE and parts of Northern New England.

  29. The air in place will be humid and if there any thunderstorms we could get some pretty good downpours. I think that is over done however.

    1. Well, it does have support from the RAP, HRRR and the Euro, so we shall see.

      I’m not feeling it. When we’re dry, we tend to stay dry.

      I think the whole shebang under performs.

  30. Thanks again JPD. It was moving quickly but came to a slow crawl once it hit 91. Stuck in rush hour traffic I suspect 😉

    there is always cast iron and the stove !!

  31. Deformation zone killed the chance of hitting 90 in several locations. I’m still pleased with the overall forecast I made. I did not have the band of clouds holding together as far east as it did, though it is beginning to lose support for its existence and will slowly dry up.

  34. Transitional pattern upcoming so be on alert for the GFS to go into the TANK for a while…if it hasn’t already.

      1. Oh goodness. 104 is like a really bad fever, one in which adults get delirious. I get delirious when the thermometer hits 90.

  35. Pattern change to heat and humidity is not something I like to hear, but, we can’t do anything about the weather so we’ll make the most of it. Would be nice if some of that heat and humidity also brought showers and storms this way to put a dent in our water deficit.

    Sox are an interesting team this year. I’ll give them that. Their resilience is nice to see. But, I believe that at the end of the day it’s more of the same regarding results: Mediocrity will likely continue to be the theme for the Sox for the foreseeable future. They just have very little pitching.

    The humiliations continue for the English. Their second `exit’ in a week. This time in the European soccer championships, as tiny Iceland defeated the English. Talk about David versus Goliath. This loss will go down as the most stunning defeat in the history of the game of soccer. I know that sounds hyperbolic, but I’ve been following soccer for decades and this loss really is an utter disaster for a nation of 65 million that invented the sport, losing to a country of 300,000 souls.

    Listen to the Icelandic commentator as the whistle is blown for the end of the game (He apparently said among other things the following: “You can leave Europe! You can go wherever the hell you want!” – scroll down to the video that shows the end of the game):

    http://www.si.com/extra-mustard/2016/06/27/iceland-england-euro-2016-icelandic-commentary-call-video

    1. Nah I’m gonna let everyone guess this time.

      Of course I will, and very soon. 🙂

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