Tuesday Forecast

138 Comments

7:34AM

DAYS 1-5 (AUGUST 23-27)…
High pressure dominates for the next 3 days, gives way to a cold frontal passage with isolated showers Friday, then high pressure returns Saturday. In short, more dry weather.
TODAY: Mostly sunny. Highs 78-86. Wind W 5-15 MPH.
TONIGHT: Mostly clear. Lows 58-66. Wind light SW.
WEDNESDAY: Mostly sunny. Highs 80-88. Wind SW 5-15 MPH.
THURSDAY: Mostly sunny. Lows 62-70. Highs 82-90.
FRIDAY: Partly sunny. Isolated morning and midday showers. Lows 62-70. Highs 82-90.
SATURDAY: Partly cloudy. Lows 60-68. Highs 78-86.

DAYS 6-10 (AUGUST 28-SEPTEMBER 1)…
Mainly dry weather. Temperatures above normal.

DAYS 11-15 (SEPTEMBER 2-6)…
Overall pattern mainly dry. Will watch a couple tropical systems offshore but current indications are that they will not threaten the region. Temperatures mostly above normal.

138 thoughts on “Tuesday Forecast”

  1. Thanks TK. Enjoying this nice stretch of weather.
    0z EURO at 192 hours for 99L. Looks in a similar position the 12z run
    http://www.instantweathermaps.com/ECMWF-php/showmap-ecmwf.php?run=2016082300&region=USA&var=PRMSL_msl&hour=192

    216 hours
    http://www.instantweathermaps.com/ECMWF-php/showmap-ecmwf.php?run=2016082300&region=USA&var=PRMSL_msl&hour=216

    240 hours its off the east coast. Hopefully continues to stay offshore as there are warm ocean temps and it could regain some strength when it emerges of water.
    http://www.instantweathermaps.com/ECMWF-php/showmap-ecmwf.php?run=2016082300&region=USA&var=PRMSL_msl&hour=240

  6. Thanks TK!

    Driest Summer (J-J-A)

    1. 3.93″ (2016)
    2. 3.97″ (1957)

    Can we squeeze out 0.04″+ by month’s end?

    1. Honestly, the damage has been done.
      Let’s have ZERO rain the rest of the month and make it the DRIEST
      Summer on record. What they hay.

  7. Good morning and thank you TK.

    Hit 54 this morning. Coolest in a while for sure.

    Definitely felt like Fall this morning.

    Re: Tropics

    Something has to give.

    Thank you WxWatcher for your thoughts on the tropics.
    I agree with all you said. Gaston is no threat to us and only threatens the fishes
    for now. May eventually be a powerful extra tropical storm striking Ireland and Scotland. We shall see.

    Invest 99 is the player. Watched Eric last night and he clearly stated that
    Invest 99 is likely to be some sort of tropical entity that STRIKES the US
    mainland. He did not offer a thought on where or when that would be, just that it likely would be.

    HWRF seems to want to make it the strongest,, although the Euro has it pretty strong as well.

    HWRF, 946 mb at 126 hours

    http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/hwrf-p/2016082306/hwrf-p_mslp_wind_99L_43.png

    Euro, 120 hours – 1005 mb

    http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/ecmwf/2016082300/ecmwf_mslpa_us_6.png

    Euro, 240 hours – 963 MB perched to come up the coast OR not?

    http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/ecmwf/2016082300/ecmwf_mslpa_us_11.png

    So the Euro does not strengthen it nearly as fast, but strengthen it, it DOES.

    I do not have access to 200 mb charts for the Euro, but looking at the 500 mb
    chart, it appears it would have a chance to come up the coast.

    Here is the Euro 300MB chart at 240 hours. Again it looks like it has a “chance”
    to come up the coast.

    http://imgur.com/a/BQxJ5

    This is for 10 days out and will change from this depiction. However, this is something we need to monitor.

    The CMC has it getting to us via the inland route.

    http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/gem/2016082300/gem_mslp_pcpn_frzn_neus_34.png

    http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/gem/2016082300/gem_mslp_pcpn_frzn_neus_37.png

    IF the CMC were to verify, it would be the best possible solution for us.
    A nice beneficial rain without damaging wind.

    I’m sure we will see a multitude of solutions over the next 10 days, but as time
    goes on, the models should begin to zero in on tighter solutions and we should
    know a whole lot more.

    Interesting times ahead.

  8. I was looking at CMC and it has the look of a Noreaster affecting us. EURO 963 mb low off east coast. I always say when there is low pressure on the east coast it needs to be watched.
    Looking at the NAO in the time period it is in a negative phase so will see if that blocking holds and will allow a system to get up here.

    1. Agree, it looks ominous, but this stuff is 10 days out and we all know how
      accurate these models are at 10 days out. 😀 😀 😀

      IMPOSSIBLE to say at this time other than continue to monitor.
      Watch models for placement of features. We’ll know in good time.

      Just remember, TIS THE SEASON and we are OVERDUE.

  9. I agree and 12z run may show a much weaker system or an entirely different position.
    Its fighting some wind shear right now so won’t develop too quickly but if that shear could relax and it gets in the bath water in the Bahammas then watch out. Then on the east coast some very warm ocean temps.

    1. The concern is that there is 80 degree water almost to the South Shore
      of New England. Any hurricane that comes up the coast, would maintain
      strength (assuming not being sheared) practically until it got here. Usually, the water is cooler and they would lose strength prior to arriving. “Should” one
      make it up the coast, that “may” not be the case this season.

      That is my main concern, right or wrong.

      1. The water temperatures up north of Cape Hatteras are largely irrelevant. Most storms are moving at 20-30 mph (or more) once they start getting past Hatteras, so they don’t have much time to weaken over the cooler waters.

    1. Awesome. Just what I was watching for and I knew you would come through.

      I’m moving to teaching my granddaughter the basics of hurricanes. I have a book ordered and want to show her maps. This is PERFECT.

      I figure she will be having nightmares at the age of seven but then isn’t that what nanas are for 😈

  11. Hurricane hunters are flying into it. Dry air to its west.
    Dave you bring up a good point about those warm temps up here and that is enough for a tropical system to maintain itself. I have seen tweets this hurricane season talking about that.

        1. Indeed. Clearly something to monitor carefully,
          especially with the Strength being forecast by
          the HWRF and the EURO.

  13. 6Z HWRF chart. WOW! 940 MB in a very very bad position.

    http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/hwrf-p/2016082306/hwrf-p_mslp_wind_99L_43.png

    meanwhile, the 6Z GFDL has ZILCH!

    http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/gfdl-p/2016082306/gfdl-p_mslp_wind_99L_22.png

    So, there you have it. I’d go with a split between the HRWF and the EURO with
    a sprinking of the GFS thrown in there.

    However, other than the GFDL, we are beginning to see some model consensus
    on this tropical. Time will tell.

    I don’t like to see 940MB storms off the SE US coast.

    ZOOMED in HWRF view. Pretty instense

    http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/hwrf/2016082306/hwrf_mslp_wind_99L_43.png

    Chart not withstanding, here is a generalized MB to wind conversion:

    115 Knots 948 mb 927 mb 4 (114-135 KTS)

    At 940 MB we are looking at 115 knots at a minimum, perhaps 120 Knots
    OR 132 mph to 138 mph.

    2. Model consensus for a system that hasn’t formed yet means absolutely nothing. Remember, just a few days ago, the model consensus for the same system was that it would already be a strong tropical storm or weak hurricane approaching the Lesser Antilles. How’d that work out?

      2. I have the sense that everyone here knows that. I have a barometer. That is called Vicki. I figure if I know something, then everyone else on here knows it too and then some. It is more the fun of discussing and watching that I enjoy. For one, I would truly hate to see that discontinued.

        Just my opinion for what it is worth 🙂

  14. Will be interested what the hurricane hunters find as they are flying into this system right now. Thankfully the 0z EURO is out in the future but never want to see a 961 mb tropical system off the east coast.

  15. At beach, between green harbor and Duxbury beach.

    Some waves for kids to play in, I’d say 2 to 3 footers.

    Low tide, but tide has begun to come in. Excellent visibility, sun is blazing through very clean air. Beautiful mild breeze, almost wanting to turn onshore ……

  16. Logan is West at 7MPH, plus one recent obs was calm, so you may be dead on
    with the turning on shore assessment. Enjoy!

  17. Oh, thank goodness that Brady is addressing the media about his absence. I am tired of hearing about it!!!

      1. That’s about what I figured he’d say.
        As much as I love the Pats, and you can’t argue with success, that’s the one thing I can’t stand about them. Too arrogant with the way they handle the media and the fans when it comes to questions and information. If it was a little better down there on that front, they might not be in the situation they’re in. A little sugar goes a long way. I don’t mean they should let it all out there like some teams do, but a little consideration wouldn’t hurt.

          1. Don’t really need to know per se. My only point is that kind of stuff with telling the media NOTHING is partly to blame for the reputation around the league and one reason why the NFL and the other 31 team want to stick it to them. The Pats COULD be a little more forth coming for the media and the fans. Like I said, you cant argue with success, but the arrogance down at Gillette in some ways hurt more than helps. If they hadn’t won so much and been a mediocre team, BB would have been run out on a rail.

            1. I do understand that there is an arrogance. And they could certainly be more forthcoming. I recall one legendary Red Sox player who was considered arrogant by fans and especially the press but was in reality not even close to being arrogant. His focus was always on the game which is why he was a great. Perhaps, that is why the Pats are also great and not a mediocre team. IDK to me it what they do on the field. The rest just doesn’t matter. But that is me and I am sure I am in the minority. I completely understand what you are saying Blackstone.

  20. Based on the recon data it looks like 99L is trying to close off its circulation, but hasn’t quite done so yet. The recon did find a couple of west winds south of the center, but all of them were 6 knots or less. I suppose that’s technically a closed circulation, but I’m not sure that it will be enough for NHC to consider it as such and start advisories.

    1. Actually, I was so busy looking at the wind direction data from the recon, that I didn’t even look at the wind speed data. Peak wind so far is 28 knots. Even if it does have a closed circulation, it’s barely a TD, despite how it looks on satellite.

  21. EURO sends the storm from north of the Bahamas over south florida. moves it north to northeast over northern Florida, up into Georgia to off the coast of Virginia as a cat 4 hurricane. to me that is high suspect track, but worth watching as many models have it some way or another.

    Sak , We know the storm has not formed yet, but when multiple models have the system, people on this blog get interested and track it

    1. Here’s the thing though….when the models keep saying the same thing and it doesn’t happen, why do you keep trusting them?

      Suppose I tell you today that I’m going to give you $100 on Friday. Tomorrow, I’ll tell you that I’m going to give you $100 on Saturday instead. On Thursday, I’ll tell you that the $100 is coming on Sunday, not Saturday. On Friday, I inform you that I’ll have your $100 on Monday, not Sunday. We’re already at the original day I told you I’d have your money, do you still expect me to have it for you in 3 days? That’s what the models have been doing with Invest 99L.

      2. the thing is that its still there but at different times, We see that all the time especially in the winter. You are going to be a broken record in the winter, we tend to always look for that first snowfall 😉 and then look for more because we are greedy weather people 😀

      3. Of course and believe it or not we all Know that. Yes we do.
        You haven’t caught on that some of us are really NUTS when
        it comes to this stuff. Give me something to look at and I WILL look at it. Doesn’t mean I believe it, but I WILL look at it AND
        I am NOT the only one here that will either. 😀 😀 😀

        It will do what it will do and there will be Weather whether we like it or not.

        I still say SOMETHING WILL happen with Invest99 and/or remains of Fiona. We shall see.

  23. “Reports from a U.S. Air Force Reserve Hurricane Hunter aircraft indicate that the tropical wave located a few hundred miles east of the Lesser Antilles has an elongated and poorly defined circulation. And, satellite imagery indicates that the associated shower and thunderstorm activity remains disorganized. Environmental conditions are only marginally conducive for development during the next couple of days while the system moves west-northwestward at 15 to 20 mph near the northern Leeward Islands and the Greater Antilles. Large- scale conditions could become more conducive later this week while the system moves nears the southeastern and central Bahamas. Another Air Force Reserve Hurricane Hunter aircraft is scheduled to investigate this disturbance tomorrow, if necessary.”

    In other words, nothing to see here….

    1. It’s like that inferior shed constructed of “fallaparticle board”.
      Wow what a change in all of the models. Well the GFS kind of maintained course.

  25. 12Z EURO still insists on intensifying Invest99 into a full-fledged Hurricane
    in the GULF. I’ll post in another frame or 2, but early indications it wants
    to hit New Orleans or close to it.

  27. That run is too close for comfort for the folks in Louisiana who dealt with those floods. There will be more shifts. For yesterdays 12z and 0z run it was tracking near the big bend area of Florida. 12z run today coming in to the west of the Florida panhandle.

  28. Before getting into the Gulf 12z EURO has this hitting southern parts of Florida as some sort of tropical system before getting stronger in the Gulf. Katrina was a category one that hit southern Florida and then got into the Gulf and became a power house. I am not saying that is happening here.

    1. Would give us some welcome rain without the big winds. NICE!

      I’ll post a precipitation map soon. Have to finish up something 1st.

  30. Good news for us with that track bad news for people in parts of the Gulf Coast. Of course just one model run and plenty of time for change

      1. Hmmm, on second try on saw a momentary image and then
        it went to error. Is there a subscription involved here?

    3. Poor puffins northern hemisphere penguins 🙁 human caused climate change. Yes climate change is a natural process, yes it can happen at different rates, but climate change at the rate at which we are experiencing now is due to earth saying I am sick because of you humans. For those that say we do not have enough information, the information we do have shows us a trend, shows a consistently warming earth, shows us that we have more of certain green house gasses than the dino’s had in their atmosphere. If we wait for having the so called “adequate amount of data” it is going to be to late and we won’t be able to live on this planet…. We are experiencing a mass extinction. So many animals and plants are dying because of us. mother nature always have a way to balance things out and if we push her to much, she will get rid of us all to let earth heal.

  33. Fiona’s gone invisible. “Invest 99-L” (which sounds more like something my financial advisor would know about) looks terrible and I think its future is 50/50. 50% of that may just mean a big blog of tropical showers heading across the Bahamas, Cuba, and Florida in the coming days. Gaston, the only one that looks decent, is heading for the wide open waters. A fish storm.

    CPC continues to insist on above normal precipitation for this area in both the 6-10 and 8-14 day periods. I don’t think I’d go that far. You’d be putting a lot of money in a tropical bank that may not be open when you go to withdraw it.

    1. Personally, I don’t understand how anyone can eat fish. It is the most
      disgusting tasting so called food on the planet.

          2. I was having a very very bad afternoon at work, and perhaps I was a little harsh. Let me just leave it at I don’t care for sea food and I recognize that many folks love it, which is fine.

            re: eating earth worms

            Funny story and TRUE! GOSPEL!!!

            When I was 15 or 16, a bunch of us were fishing at our favorite spot on the Charles RIver in Millis near the Norfolk line. The spot was well in from the road, a good 1/2 mile or so. Anyway, we were all catching fish and I was unhooking my catch when one of the guys reached back for
            a big long cast and let go with a powerful motion.
            Only his line didn’t go out since he had hooked me in the mouth and through my upper lip.
            Night crawler dangling down my throat!

            I had to get the worm out of my mouth and then cut the line and a long bike ride home where my parents carted me to the hospital for a Tetanus shot in the arm and lidocaine in my lip and face.
            The docs pushed through the hook and cut the barb, finally freeing me.

            We all laugh about it now, but it was not
            funny then.

            So, in a sense I have eaten earth worms and I remember the taste being better than fish. 😀 😀 😀

      2. I love my seafood, tuna steak, conch, crab, swordfish, cod, but my favorite is scallops.

        My favorite seafood though is scallops with lemon and rosemary/parsley

      3. Thank you Dave. I also love seafood. Shrimp and lobster are my favorite. But a wonderful neighbor used to bring us sushi grade tuna and sea bass right off the boat and there is nothing like it. Also, the salmon and potatoes and peas my mom made when I caught salmon. Sadly cannot find the recipe anywhere…even online. And always rainbow trout. Oh my.

  35. Matt, I like your idealism. It’s something missing in most of my students. Most want to have careers in finance and make lots of money, the environment and lots of other things be damned. That’s fine, I guess. But, it’s also often a solipsistic perspective. I don’t quite share your pessimistic viewpoint on the earth’s future. Yet, it’s vital we treat our resources as the commons rather having a “to each his own” attitude. Decades ago, concerted efforts across political lines brought necessary changes to the pollution levels in our waterways. Similarly, the movement to recycle was done in the spirit of togetherness. I would hope that politicians and policymakers would return to a collective approach to resolve certain environmental issues that impact us today. I’m afraid that the era of special interests on BOTH sides of the aisle is so pervasive now that virtually no-one acts in the public’s interest.

  36. According to Eric, we MAY see some rain from 99-L (soon to be Hermine) sometime late next week. It would be remnants from the GOM.

  37. Re : Invest 99

    The best performing (EURO) model in meteorology has this thing becoming something big 3 runs in a row now and one of the worst performing (GFS) model’s really doesn’t even acknowledge invest 99. That in and of itself makes me think Invest 99 is destined to become a big tropical player in about a week.

    1. The Euro does better with existing systems than with things yet developed. The GFS is a wildcard, but sometimes does better with development, even though it’s not really designed for tropical cyclones. The GEM is a joke. If it had its way, everything would become a tight cyclone and eventually all merge into a giant black hole.

      2. Why don’t you tell us how you really feel. 😀 😀 😀

        Right now, I am in Camp Euro, since I can’t see a better player to back.

  40. I’ll pay a bit more attention to the models if and when I-99 becomes something. Many scenarios are in play.

      1. Yes I do. I have speculated myself on this one. My strongest feeling is it never really gets organized and stays north of the Caribbean, through the Bahamas, and rides up Florida.

        May be way out to lunch, but time will tell.

  41. Question:

    Do the models handle unformed tropical systems better than unformed
    Winter Storms. It seems to me that the models perform better in Winter.

    Am I out to lunch? Dinner? Out of my mind? Well that might be true. 😀

  42. Question:

    Do the models handle unformed tropical systems better than unformed
    Winter Storms. It seems to me that the models perform better in Winter.

    Am I out to lunch? Dinner? Out of my mind? Well that might be true.

    2. In the winter, the storms, or at least the upper-level energy that triggers them, is seen by the models several days in advance. In summer, tropical systems develop using different mechanisms, and over regions with little to no data. That is why the models have a much better handle on extratropical cyclones than on tropical ones.

        1. Yes it will, that is one of the main reasons they make these flights, other than to gather real-time data on the actual strength of a system.

              1. I’m laughing. Although being hooked is anything but funny. I was laughing at your recollection that worms taste better than fish.

                And you were not too harsh about seafood. Everyone has different Tastes. Mac on the other hand would eat anything including chocolate covered ants…..which I suspect was better than my cooking when we were first married

  43. I confess. If we do not have snow this winter, it will be my fault. I have not had winter boots for a couple of years. I ordered a pair on sale today. Sorry 🙁

  44. Dave, if we look at the Euro it shows it staying a wave until 48-72 hours and then things start to progress from there. Will be interesting to watch considering how strong it shows it if it actually develops.

  45. Levi Cowan, who runs the Tropical Tidbits site, has put together, as per usual, an excellent video discussion on the tropics and 99L in particular tonight. It’s right on the home page and about 10 minutes. Worth a watch if you’ve got time!

    http://www.tropicaltidbits.com

    2. That was great. It put together everything folks have been posting on here, was easy to follow and very easy for even a novice. Thanks WxW. I’m adding it to my list of viewing for my granddaughter

      1. Adding that I am becoming quite attached to 99L. We all know how I am about letter/number combinations.

  46. It’s worth noting that for the 00z tropical models (just the tropical ones), the majority of them never bring 99L to hurricane strength. A few of them never even get it to tropical storm strength.

  48. Based on the radar out of Martinique, the center of 99L is farther south than ALL of the guidance initialized. In other words, you can pretty much ignore all of the 00z models.

    Too bad, because that 00z GFS is certainly interesting. Takes the system as a TS into Florida, runs right up the state, comes back out off the SE, blows up into a hurricane, then moves up the East Coast, but stays offshore and heads out to sea.

    1. I saw that, then noticed where the center actually was and that it probably renders the entire solution, regarding 99L, meaningless.

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